HOF v Rookie Future Watch

[GKG51]

I know that this subject has been touched on in many different threads but I was hoping to get some direct insight and thoughts about the hobby.

The following are sold on ebay prices of Future Watch HOF type players:
Toews-$230(US), Kopitar-200, Kane-700, Malkin-400, Karlsson-120,
Doughty-100, Lundqvist-200, Bergeron-600, Keith-60,

2020-21 SP Future Watch: Lafreniere-$750, Stutzle-600, Cozens (Redemption)-230, Krebs-130, Sorokin-300, Francouz-90, Hoglander-70,
Hagel-95, N Robertson-300, J Robinson-330, Norris,-270

Obviously the new hot stuff is always going to be overpriced from the start and gradually go down but both of these groups of pricing is crazy. There are /999 of both so scarcity isn't the issue. The fact that people are spending more money on guys with a couple season under their belt than generational bests is mind boggling. How long does it take "rookies" (loosely used word considering these guys already have played 2 full seasons) prices to come back down to earth? How much room for growth does the HOF group have if these prices remain the same? Any thoughts and insight is always appreciated.

[k13]

Your prices seem extra low.
Bergeron/Malkin/Kane usually sell in 4 figures.

If these are raw then they are all damaged.

[booky]

Makar and Fox have been stable the last year or so.
Makar will be only going up @ his age.

Undervalued players
Stamkos
Kopitar
Keith


50/50 room for growth but also room for dips
Oettinger
Robertson
Huberdeau
Barkov

right now I'm happy i loaded up on Robertson and Oettinger and focusing on the dip on Miro H.

[forest]

Originally Posted by booky

50/50 room for growth but also room for dips
Oettinger

Hard to see much growth for Oettinger within the next year unless he has an Igor type breakout season and wins the Vezina. His prices jumped so high after that first round playoff series and are impressively holding strong, but he’s already being priced like an elite goalie and he hasn’t proven that in the regular season yet.

[forest]

Originally Posted by GKG51

N Robertson-300, J Robinson-330

The fact that these too still sell in the same range is hilarious. One is a top 15-20 player in the league, and the other has one career goal

[Giroux]

Originally Posted by forest

The fact that these too still sell in the same range is hilarious. One is a top 15-20 player in the league, and the other has one career goal

I do still like Nick as a prospect, but that is crazy.

Toronto vs Dallas I guess.

[booky]

Originally Posted by forest

Hard to see much growth for Oettinger within the next year unless he has an Igor type breakout season and wins the Vezina. His prices jumped so high after that first round playoff series and are impressively holding strong, but he’s already being priced like an elite goalie and he hasn’t proven that in the regular season yet.

Dallas Core is Under age 25. Thats what catched my eye

I can see Oettinger surpassing Igor in the long run.

but Nick Roberson I agree should be $4 YG lol

[forest]

Originally Posted by booky

I can see Oettinger surpassing Igor in the long run.

I like Oettinger but I’ll believe it when I see it on that. Igor just had one of the greatest goaltending seasons of the last half-century, Oettinger had a great 7 games. I personally put Oettinger more in the Swayman class right now

I feel like with goaltenders card prices, peak matters as much as longevity, maybe even more. And Igor has a better peak than just about anyone. I don’t know if you can expect Oettinger, or any goalie really, to ever reach Igor’s peak.

[k13]

Igor is overrated and turning 27 already.
One lucky year and that's it.
Playoffs he was average and 1st two years too.

Lot of bums put up similar stats the last ten years.

[forest]

Originally Posted by k13

Igor is overrated and turning 27 already.
One lucky year and that's it.
Playoffs he was average and 1st two years too.

Lot of bums put up similar stats the last ten years.

You mention the higher scoring "COVID seasons" a ton when discounting other players' seasons, so wouldn't that make Igor's stats this year even more impressive?

[Inferno]

Goalies are voodoo. Vasilevskiy is the only one from this generation who has proven greatness.

[JanuaryRains]

Originally Posted by GKG51

I know that this subject has been touched on in many different threads but I was hoping to get some direct insight and thoughts about the hobby.

The following are sold on ebay prices of Future Watch HOF type players:
Toews-$230(US), Kopitar-200, Kane-700, Malkin-400, Karlsson-120,
Doughty-100, Lundqvist-200, Bergeron-600, Keith-60,

2020-21 SP Future Watch: Lafreniere-$750, Stutzle-600, Cozens (Redemption)-230, Krebs-130, Sorokin-300, Francouz-90, Hoglander-70,
Hagel-95, N Robertson-300, J Robinson-330, Norris,-270

Obviously the new hot stuff is always going to be overpriced from the start and gradually go down but both of these groups of pricing is crazy. There are /999 of both so scarcity isn't the issue. The fact that people are spending more money on guys with a couple season under their belt than generational bests is mind boggling. How long does it take "rookies" (loosely used word considering these guys already have played 2 full seasons) prices to come back down to earth? How much room for growth does the HOF group have if these prices remain the same? Any thoughts and insight is always appreciated.

These are fresh releases, prices are going to be higher. How long will it take for them to come down to where they are relative to career accomplishments? I'd say a while on the bigger names. Elias Pettersson and Andrei Svechnikov and, hell, even Jack Eichel are still 3-400+ a card and I wouldn't say their careers justify the prices. It's just how it is right now. Jamie Benn's had a better career than the 3 put together and he's worth, what $60 right now? Just gotta be very patient if you want any of these or take the plunge and risk it for the upside. Patience is key right now if you're a collector.

Originally Posted by booky

Makar and Fox have been stable the last year or so.
Makar will be only going up @ his age.

Undervalued players
Stamkos
Kopitar
Keith


50/50 room for growth but also room for dips
Oettinger
Robertson
Huberdeau
Barkov

right now I'm happy i loaded up on Robertson and Oettinger and focusing on the dip on Miro H.

I don't believe Fox values have been that stable the past season, he peaked and then he came down hard from it. I'm a big believer in Makar's hobby value but he's probably the riskiest player to have money in at this point. Appeal is obvious though and I understand why people are piling in on him.

I wish you were right regarding the undervalued players but I'm not sure Kopitar or Keith will really get that love. They don't strike me as players people will be clamoring to add. Great careers, great players, not so great hobby value I guess. Stamkos did get some shine for the past little bit though.

Agreed on Miro, the DeBoer hiring's a good thing for him in my eyes.

Originally Posted by k13

Igor is overrated and turning 27 already.
One lucky year and that's it.
Playoffs he was average and 1st two years too.

Lot of bums put up similar stats the last ten years.

Come on, man lol

[GKG51]

Originally Posted by k13

Your prices seem extra low.
Bergeron/Malkin/Kane usually sell in 4 figures.

If these are raw then they are all damaged.

[booky]

Originally Posted by forest

I like Oettinger but I’ll believe it when I see it on that. Igor just had one of the greatest goaltending seasons of the last half-century, Oettinger had a great 7 games. I personally put Oettinger more in the Swayman class right now

I feel like with goaltenders card prices, peak matters as much as longevity, maybe even more. And Igor has a better peak than just about anyone. I don’t know if you can expect Oettinger, or any goalie really, to ever reach Igor’s peak.

Goaltenders are always a bit of a tizzy.
Igor is great goalie and plays in the big apple so hobby love is HIGH right now.

Miro H age 22
J.robertson age 22
Oettinger age 23

that core will be awesome for many years to come.
but Vasilesky is best buy for LONG and SHORT term for goalies I think.

Cheers

[oldgoldy97]

So did someone overpay for their SP autos?

[booky]

Originally Posted by JanuaryRains

These are fresh releases, prices are going to be higher. How long will it take for them to come down to where they are relative to career accomplishments? I'd say a while on the bigger names. Elias Pettersson and Andrei Svechnikov and, hell, even Jack Eichel are still 3-400+ a card and I wouldn't say their careers justify the prices. It's just how it is right now. Jamie Benn's had a better career than the 3 put together and he's worth, what $60 right now? Just gotta be very patient if you want any of these or take the plunge and risk it for the upside. Patience is key right now if you're a collector.



I don't believe Fox values have been that stable the past season, he peaked and then he came down hard from it. I'm a big believer in Makar's hobby value but he's probably the riskiest player to have money in at this point. Appeal is obvious though and I understand why people are piling in on him.

I wish you were right regarding the undervalued players but I'm not sure Kopitar or Keith will really get that love. They don't strike me as players people will be clamoring to add. Great careers, great players, not so great hobby value I guess. Stamkos did get some shine for the past little bit though.

Agreed on Miro, the DeBoer hiring's a good thing for him in my eyes.



Come on, man lol

what i mean by stable is always able to sell fast Liquidate cash if needed.
I paid $45 for 3 YG Adam Fox even with a Dip I'm in a good position HOLDING.
however if some people chased the spike STABLE Might not be the correct term.

[forest]

If you’re a player collector, there are certain cards where it’s worth overpaying for just to get them into your collection. Stuff that’s /99 or lower fits that criteria for me because you never know if or when you’ll see them for sale again. Future Watches being /999 are always going to be available on the secondary market. You’ll always have someone out there eager to sell one to you whether it be a year from now or 10 years from now. Pick just about any player and search for their FWA on eBay and you’ll find 50+ for sale

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by forest

If you’re a player collector, there are certain cards where it’s worth overpaying for just to get them into your collection. Stuff that’s /99 or lower fits that criteria for me because you never know if or when you’ll see them for sale again. Future Watches being /999 are always going to be available on the secondary market. You’ll always have someone out there eager to sell one to you whether it be a year from now or 10 years from now. Pick just about any player and search for their FWA on eBay and you’ll find 50+ for sale

Your theory is correct and why I jumped on the /99 ultimate that does not come up regularly and not one since I purchased mine. I am surprised by the number of sp game used /97 that are up.

[DetroitTN]

Paul Coffey is better than any currently active defenseman will ever be, but his rookie card isn't priced evenly with his greatness. I'd rather buy cards of long established players than new guys. Cheechoo and Heatley are solid examples of being briefly super great then terrible. Many current players will do the same. Good luck gambling with them (genuine well wishing, not sarcastic)

[tyrith]

The most undervalued d-man has to be Victor Hedman, who is tracking to be a top 10 all time defenseman by the time he's done.

As a big Stars guy, Oettinger is mega overvalued ATM. He's getting priced like he's a forward. I like his future and am really glad we have him, but I doubt he's going to make more than 1-2 All-Star teams in his career. Jason Robertson is potentially the real deal.

I've been saying on here for a year that I am not a believer in Makar's long term hobby value. He definitely had the age 23 season you'd want someone to have to prove me wrong...but will he keep throwing up 80 point seasons? I just think it's going to be easy for his points total to start declining as the Avs start losing their forward depth over the next couple of years. I PC Miro in significant part because d-men are undervalued; in Makar doesn't run off a string of top 3 Norris finishes he's got no shot. Makar's FWAs are something like 7-8x the price of Hedman. I just don't see how that kind of gap is sustainable once the bloom falls off the Avs rose, as it surely must within a few years.

[kingb22]

Originally Posted by tyrith

The most undervalued d-man has to be Victor Hedman, who is tracking to be a top 10 all time defenseman by the time he's done.

I've been saying on here for a year that I am not a believer in Makar's long term hobby value. He definitely had the age 23 season you'd want someone to have to prove me wrong...but will he keep throwing up 80 point seasons? I just think it's going to be easy for his points total to start declining as the Avs start losing their forward depth over the next couple of years. I PC Miro in significant part because d-men are undervalued; in Makar doesn't run off a string of top 3 Norris finishes he's got no shot. Makar's FWAs are something like 7-8x the price of Hedman. I just don't see how that kind of gap is sustainable once the bloom falls off the Avs rose, as it surely must within a few years.

I don't disagree with you but I think the counter-argument here is that Hedman's best-case is someone like Niklas Lidstrom - fantastic, probably under-rated, and as you said among the 10 best. But the gold standard of D-men is still Bobby Orr. I think if you buy Makar at his prices you are making the best that he becomes a transcendent player like Orr - something that Hedman or Adam Fox will never have a shot at.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by kingb22

I don't disagree with you but I think the counter-argument here is that Hedman's best-case is someone like Niklas Lidstrom - fantastic, probably under-rated, and as you said among the 10 best. But the gold standard of D-men is still Bobby Orr. I think if you buy Makar at his prices you are making the best that he becomes a transcendent player like Orr - something that Hedman or Adam Fox will never have a shot at.

How much would him being Bobby Orr even make his prices go up? He's not going to score 110 points a season. What happens if he has an extremely good but lesser sesaon next year - like 24-50-74? It feels like almost all of the upside is already priced in unless he does something truly insane like scoring 40 goals.

[NHRonin]

Originally Posted by DetroitTN

Paul Coffey is better than any currently active defenseman will ever be, but his rookie card isn't priced evenly with his greatness. I'd rather buy cards of long established players than new guys. Cheechoo and Heatley are solid examples of being briefly super great then terrible. Many current players will do the same. Good luck gambling with them (genuine well wishing, not sarcastic)

Coffey was the most overrated D-man of his generation. His numbers were grossly overinflated by playing behind Gretzky, Messier, Lemieux, Jagr and Yzerman.

[valleynuckfan]

Originally Posted by NHRonin

Coffey was the most overrated D-man of his generation. His numbers were grossly overinflated by playing behind Gretzky, Messier, Lemieux, Jagr and Yzerman.

*** ***

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by NHRonin

Coffey was the most overrated D-man of his generation. His numbers were grossly overinflated by playing behind Gretzky, Messier, Lemieux, Jagr and Yzerman.

Maybe their numbers were better because they played with him.