Patrick Mahomes Prices

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

How many you think for the non autos? I always assumed 6 from what others said.

Don't know a number, but the Pop counts and prior sales prove out more than 6.

Anywhere from 10-25? I really can't speculate any more than that. But I'd bet heavy that it's not 6.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Don't know a number, but the Pop counts and prior sales prove out more than 6.

Anywhere from 10-25? I really can't speculate any more than that. But I'd bet heavy that it's not 6.

Are those sales or pop numbers dupes by any chance? I mean we’ll never know exactly.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

How many you think for the non autos? I always assumed 6 from what others said.

I own 5 of a particular player….. saw two different ones on auction simultaneously that were not mine and were not one of the ones I sold last year not included in the 5…… so assuming someone didn’t crack a mint card I can account for 8 of one player. I think 10-12 is probably fair, I’d be shocked if it was over 15

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Are those sales or pop numbers dupes by any chance? I mean we’ll never know exactly.

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

I own 5 of a particular player….. saw two different ones on auction simultaneously that were not mine and were not one of the ones I sold last year not included in the 5…… so assuming someone didn’t crack a mint card I can account for 8 of one player. I think 10-12 is probably fair, I’d be shocked if it was over 15

There are 4 PSA 10s. (3 9s but its possible those could be regrades). 1 PSA4 , and 1 PSA Authentic.

There at 3 BGS 9.5s, 5 BGS 9.0s. 1 BGS 8.5.

Of the 5 BGS 9.0s, 2 are at Collectable.


That's 6 confirmed copies between the PSA 10s, and the 2 BGS 9.0s at ALT.

It's fair to assume that the PSA 4 and Authentic are the same card and have not been regraded to a BGS 8.5 or higher, so that's a 7th confirmed.

That leaves 3 BGS 9.5s, 3 BGS 9.0s, and 3 PSA 9s. It's hard for me to imagine that all 9 of these cards are regrades. On top of that, there are probably still some sealed somewhere, or in collections raw.

[investinrookies]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

I’m not saying it’s a tank for Mahomes. It’s a tank for most everything. Prices were crazy low across the board for much of the premier auction. 25-50% lower than previous comps. Mahomes is almost in the territory of great buy on certain cards if you are a believer.

Agreed. I bid on the contenders BGS 9.5 and didn’t think I’d win it. Super thrilled to win a true gem for under 28k, can’t tell you last time I remember prices down that low for contenders. Its nice to see prices come off some allowing me to get one of his best cards in Gem Mint. I think his prices will rebound pretty quick if he starts off good to the season. Perfect storm for his prices to fall based off how the season ended. He will get past that and so will the hobby. Pat is still good, real good.


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[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by investinrookies

Agreed. I bid on the contenders BGS 9.5 and didn’t think I’d win it. Super thrilled to win a true gem for under 28k, can’t tell you last time I remember prices down that low for contenders. Its nice to see prices come off some allowing me to get one of his best cards in Gem Mint. I think his prices will rebound pretty quick if he starts off good to the season. Perfect storm for his prices to fall based off how the season ended. He will get past that and so will the hobby. Pat is still good, real good.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Who was the original owner of the 9.5?

[BosPats1980]

Here's mine. Hoping to add a 2017 Prizm Red to my collection this year:

Originally Posted by tjforce

There are 4 PSA 10s. (3 9s but its possible those could be regrades). 1 PSA4 , and 1 PSA Authentic.

There at 3 BGS 9.5s, 5 BGS 9.0s. 1 BGS 8.5.

Of the 5 BGS 9.0s, 2 are at Collectable.


That's 6 confirmed copies between the PSA 10s, and the 2 BGS 9.0s at ALT.

It's fair to assume that the PSA 4 and Authentic are the same card and have not been regraded to a BGS 8.5 or higher, so that's a 7th confirmed.

That leaves 3 BGS 9.5s, 3 BGS 9.0s, and 3 PSA 9s. It's hard for me to imagine that all 9 of these cards are regrades. On top of that, there are probably still some sealed somewhere, or in collections raw.

[The_Reverend]

Considering moving my last Prizm PSA 9.

[2010GBPackers]

Yeah, May/June/July prices are nice for a collector. Put in a bid on a card over a week ago in the Premier auction and surprisingly woke up to find out I was the winning bidder.

[TSonn]

Just watched a Mahomes highlight vid and now I'm pumped for the season. Excited to see what the new WRs bring to the offense. Hopefully fewer fumbles and tipped balls than Hill did last season.

[growdoe]

I like the Chiefs size at wide receiver and hoping it benefits the running game:

Justyn Ross - 6'4" (If Mahomes likes ya, you're on the team)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 6'4" (2nd fastest ball carrier in 2021 at 22.09mph, Tyreek not in top 5)

Josh Gordan - 6'3" (long-shot to make team, but performing well during mini-camp and Coach Reid has been impressed with off-season work)

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by growdoe

I like the Chiefs size at wide receiver and hoping it benefits the running game:

Justyn Ross - 6'4" (If Mahomes likes ya, you're on the team)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 6'4" (2nd fastest ball carrier in 2021 at 22.09mph, Tyreek not in top 5)

Josh Gordan - 6'3" (long-shot to make team, but performing well during mini-camp and Coach Reid has been impressed with off-season work)

I know a lot of people label Mahomes as a deep ball guy only because of Tyreke's speed, but his best asset as a QB is using the advantages of his WRs/TEs. Tyreke? Throw it out in front and let Tyreke go get it. Kelce? Throw up high and Kelce win a jump ball.

I have no doubt he'll figure out how Juju and MVS can beat their defenders a majority of the time and take advantage of that. Maybe an offseason with Gordon will unlock his special abilities from a few years ago too.

Tyreke's speed was an obvious mismatch but a tall WR or a WR who runs perfect routes could be just as dangerous. They were missing a possession WR the last few years - a WR opposite Kelce who Mahomes could trust to be in the right spot every play - hopefully one of the new guys can be that.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

Considering moving my last Prizm PSA 9.

Nice way of getting offers

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by growdoe

I like the Chiefs size at wide receiver and hoping it benefits the running game:

Justyn Ross - 6'4" (If Mahomes likes ya, you're on the team)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 6'4" (2nd fastest ball carrier in 2021 at 22.09mph, Tyreek not in top 5)

Josh Gordan - 6'3" (long-shot to make team, but performing well during mini-camp and Coach Reid has been impressed with off-season work)

My take on most likely WR's to make the roster (in order)
1. Hardman
2. MVS
3. Juju
4. Skyy
5. Gordon
6. Ross

Do they carry 6? Will probably depend on how well Ross plays and how good of shape Gordon comes in at.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I know a lot of people label Mahomes as a deep ball guy only because of Tyreke's speed, but his best asset as a QB is using the advantages of his WRs/TEs. Tyreke? Throw it out in front and let Tyreke go get it. Kelce? Throw up high and Kelce win a jump ball.

I have no doubt he'll figure out how Juju and MVS can beat their defenders a majority of the time and take advantage of that. Maybe an offseason with Gordon will unlock his special abilities from a few years ago too.

Tyreke's speed was an obvious mismatch but a tall WR or a WR who runs perfect routes could be just as dangerous. They were missing a possession WR the last few years - a WR opposite Kelce who Mahomes could trust to be in the right spot every play - hopefully one of the new guys can be that.

Well Tyreek did say that Tua is more accurate than Mahomes.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Well Tyreek did say that Tua is more accurate than Mahomes.

Man just put so much pressure on Tua for no reason.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Well Tyreek did say that Tua is more accurate than Mahomes.

I don't doubt that he's more accurate that Mahomes with the -5 to 5 yard dump passes.

[jgb1219]

Originally Posted by tjforce

There are 4 PSA 10s. (3 9s but its possible those could be regrades). 1 PSA4 , and 1 PSA Authentic.

There at 3 BGS 9.5s, 5 BGS 9.0s. 1 BGS 8.5.

Of the 5 BGS 9.0s, 2 are at Collectable.


That's 6 confirmed copies between the PSA 10s, and the 2 BGS 9.0s at ALT.

It's fair to assume that the PSA 4 and Authentic are the same card and have not been regraded to a BGS 8.5 or higher, so that's a 7th confirmed.

That leaves 3 BGS 9.5s, 3 BGS 9.0s, and 3 PSA 9s. It's hard for me to imagine that all 9 of these cards are regrades. On top of that, there are probably still some sealed somewhere, or in collections raw.

Great analysis, thank you. PCP had made a post couple years ago that linked to a Panini statement that the Bronze Stars base was "limited to just six copies." https://blog.paniniamerica.net/bronz...line-parallel/[/QUOTE]

Do you think Panini made a mistake when publishing on their blog? Panini seems to be so vague about most unnumbered SSPs, so find it strange that they'd put out such a specific number ("six") when they could have said something directionally accurate but less specific (e.g., "around five" "less than ten" etc) to avoid being called out. It just feels odd to put out an erroneous print run (though your analysis makes sense).

[Abba Dabba]

Originally Posted by tjforce

My take on most likely WR's to make the roster (in order)
1. Hardman
2. MVS
3. Juju
4. Skyy
5. Gordon
6. Ross

Do they carry 6? Will probably depend on how well Ross plays and how good of shape Gordon comes in at.

Have heard some rumors that Daurice Fountain looked really good during OTA's and has a good chance to make the roster. Gordon I'm afraid hasn't looked not as well and doesn't play ST. The #5 WR has to play ST. Daurice Fountain looks to take over the role last year that Marcus Kemp played.

Ross will more than likely be stashed away on the PS with the occasional protected status . All that talent still needs some marinating. Dark horse IMO for the # 6 WR would be Cornell Powell.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Abba Dabba

Have heard some rumors that Daurice Fountain looked really good during OTA's and has a good chance to make the roster. Gordon I'm afraid hasn't looked not as well and doesn't play ST. The #5 WR has to play ST. Daurice Fountain looks to take over the role last year that Marcus Kemp played.

Ross will more than likely be stashed away on the PS with the occasional protected status . All that talent still needs some marinating. Dark horse IMO for the # 6 WR would be Cornell Powell.

You're probably right... special teams and protection ability will probably make the difference. I can't help but being partial to Josh Gordon, however. Having watched him in 2013 as a 22 year old that caught for 1,646 with Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell as his QBs, I'm convinced that he had the physical ability to be in the top echelon of wide receivers in NFL history. Too bad he had other things get in his way.

[blockedbyjames]

Originally Posted by jgb1219

Great analysis, thank you. PCP had made a post couple years ago that linked to a Panini statement that the Bronze Stars base was "limited to just six copies." https://blog.paniniamerica.net/bronz...line-parallel/

Do you think Panini made a mistake when publishing on their blog? Panini seems to be so vague about most unnumbered SSPs, so find it strange that they'd put out such a specific number ("six") when they could have said something directionally accurate but less specific (e.g., "around five" "less than ten" etc) to avoid being called out. It just feels odd to put out an erroneous print run (though your analysis makes sense).[/QUOTE]

I've been researching the 2017 prizm print runs for quite awhile for all colors. There's so many good rookies and the design is unique so I didn't mind spending hours looking at pop reports for different players.

The Mahomes Bronze Stars pop is puzzling to me. It actually seems like an outlier.

I don't have my data in front of me, but off the top of my head I remember seeing most of the other players pop reports across PSA and BGS pretty close to inline with /6 or at least close to 6.

I would assume that nearly every big rookie would have all their bronze stars graded. Kamara, CMC, Watson, Watt, Garrett, Kupp.

While it is possible there's still ungraded bronze stars of these guys floating out there, I don't think it's very likely. So there might be some still sealed or ungraded, but a majority are certainly going to have already been graded.

Anyone can check the pop reports themselves, but for every player other than Mahomes I believe, there's between 3 and 10 copies total graded. Assuming some crossovers when grading was dirt cheap 2017-2020, and the fact that most of the Bronze pop is less than the Gold /10 pop, I don't think Panini was way off when they said Bronze was /6.

But again, the Mahomes pop is puzzling. It's possible there were numerous crossovers, or it's possible there's simply more than 6 printed copies, or a combination of both.

[BeastMode27]

Double post

[BeastMode27]

Why would every pulled copy be graded for all those players? Are people not picky? If I don’t think a card is almost a lock for a 10 I’m not grading it. I get some people grade everything, but not close to everyone. A 9 isn’t worth grading. Card has to be perfect for me to send. And I don’t grade base cards (once in my life). I’m sure there are others like this. I sell a lot of cards raw that would likely gem or a 9 at minimum. If it would be an 8.5 or less It probably has a defect I’m pointing out so no returns.

[blockedbyjames]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

Why would every pulled copy be graded for all those players? Are people not picky? If I don’t think a card is almost a lock for a 10 I’m not grading it. I get some people grade everything, but not close to everyone. A 9 isn’t worth grading. Card has to be perfect for me to send. And I don’t grade base cards (once in my life). I’m sure there are others like this. I sell a lot of cards raw that would likely gem or a 9 at minimum. If it would be an 8.5 or less It probably has a defect I’m pointing out so no returns.

Not everyone or even close to everyone is like you. Modern cards have a super high gem rate (in general yes of course there's exceptions), and when grading was less than 50 bucks cards were getting sent in by the buckets.

Feel free to look on ebay. Have you seen any raw bronze stars listed from any big name 2017 rookie? I look almost once a week and haven't seen any except 1 in the past 6 months.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by blockedbyjames

Do you think Panini made a mistake when publishing on their blog? Panini seems to be so vague about most unnumbered SSPs, so find it strange that they'd put out such a specific number ("six") when they could have said something directionally accurate but less specific (e.g., "around five" "less than ten" etc) to avoid being called out. It just feels odd to put out an erroneous print run (though your analysis makes sense).

Look at the analysis:

There are 4 PSA 10s. These aren't getting cracked.

There are 3 BGS 9.0s. 2 at Collectable, 1 posted here.

There is 1 PSA 4/Authentic.

That's a minimum 8 copies, Plus the possibilities of the 3 BGS 9.5s (could be crossed, but probably not all 3) raw copies, and copies not yet pulled. My guess is somewhere between 10-20 copies made, which is still very rare.