Million-dollar card break happens tonight -- Blowout will be there to witness it

[zworykin]

I wonder how many of the people who keep saying "money laundering money laundering" over these past few months actually have the first idea what that phrase even means. What a stupid meme.

[brock]

Originally Posted by jzx1103

It has 3 Lebron Logomans on the card, one each from Cavs, Heat, Lakers

And it will be the only one ever produced!!

Er... Until next year when the triple logo man of lebron's 3 stops is included in NT, Immac, Flawless and a yet to be created mosaic ultra premium stock (featuring the 'collector desired' stickers only high end product that panini finally delivers on).

Oops, did I say there would only be four next year? Nope! Each of those sets will have a platinum 1/1 as well as prime /3, emerald /5, Chinese ruby /8 and gold /10.

Can't wait!!!

But wait! We'll have another set of triple logomen made up of lebron's 2nd stint in Cleveland. The one from this year and the ones above used logomen from his first (NON CHAMPIONSHIP) stop in Cleveland. The champ only logomen cards will have logomen only from NBA finals winning seasons with the three teams. And the parallels outlined above will be included in the champ-only logomen!

By my count, we should expect to see 217 lebron triple logomen by 2023!!

Happy collecting!


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[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by zworykin

I wonder how many of the people who keep saying "money laundering money laundering" over these past few months actually have the first idea what that phrase even means. What a stupid meme.

I have a PhD in finance and my expertise is in financial market regulatory policy. Before that I worked at a Fortune 500 commercial bank.

Does that imply the prevalence of money laundering? Of course not. Do I have more than a “meme’s” worth of knowledge about the subject? Yes. Of course the preponderance of money being spent (and lost) in this hobby isn’t laundering. But if you think it’s impossible in a mostly unregulated market where 6-7 figure transactions occur frequently and massive amounts of money exchange hands across a relatively small number of participants, then you’re naive.

[blackbears86]

[QUOTE=ExpFacilitators;18088594]I have a PhD in finance and my expertise is in financial market regulatory policy. Before that I worked at a Fortune 500 commercial bank.

Does that imply the prevalence of money laundering? Of course not. Do I have more than a “meme’s” worth of knowledge about the subject? Yes. Of course the preponderance of money being spent (and lost) in this hobby isn’t laundering. But if you think it’s impossible in a mostly unregulated market where 6-7 figure transactions occur frequently and massive amounts of money exchange hands across a relatively small number of participants, then you’re naive.[/QUOTE]



YES.


People have NO idea the money floating around in cards right now.

[SlickRick]

Originally Posted by zworykin

I wonder how many of the people who keep saying "money laundering money laundering" over these past few months actually have the first idea what that phrase even means. What a stupid meme.

People also saying it's just a tax write off for them, tax write off tax write off..

But is it? Unless you consider this a business expense, You can only deduct gambling losses up to the amount you won (break even), and you have to itemize it all. Which is why most don't mess with gambling on your taxes.

These guys would have to itemize 40k worth of winnings and card sales to write it off.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by SlickRick

People also saying it's just a tax write off for them, tax write off tax write off..

But is it? Unless you consider this a business expense, You can only deduct gambling losses up to the amount you won (break even), and you have to itemize it all. Which is why most don't mess with gambling on your taxes.

These guys would have to itemize 40k worth of winnings and card sales to write it off.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

The tax write off is always such a funny idea. Setting aside the logistics of whether or not (or how) you could deduct the losses, it’s seldom a good idea to lose money arbitrarily to lower your tax bill. Even if your marginal tax rate is 40% why would you piss away $300k just to lower your tax bill by $120k?

[sportzluvr1]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

I have a PhD in finance and my expertise is in financial market regulatory policy. Before that I worked at a Fortune 500 commercial bank.

Does that imply the prevalence of money laundering? Of course not. Do I have more than a “meme’s” worth of knowledge about the subject? Yes. Of course the preponderance of money being spent (and lost) in this hobby isn’t laundering. But if you think it’s impossible in a mostly unregulated market where 6-7 figure transactions occur frequently and massive amounts of money exchange hands across a relatively small number of participants, then you’re naive.

Thanks for this insight.

Get educated kids.

[ninjacookies]

I think there's a disconnect that exists on what constitutes 'frivolous losses/spending' because of the overwhelming wage gap between the 3%ers and most of us.

It would be like trying to rationalize dropping $250 on a Hoops hobby box for a $40 return to a dude on Skid Row.


$300k is not the same to everyone. That's FU money to dudes that rock Cartier Buffs at night.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by zworykin

I wonder how many of the people who keep saying "money laundering money laundering" over these past few months actually have the first idea what that phrase even means. What a stupid meme.

I've always thought the sports card business would be the perfect place to launder money. I have no doubt that it's happening. Maybe not to the extent that some on social media may think, but undoubtedly one would expect some percentage of large sports card transactions are being done with dirty money. It's also the path of least resistance. If I sold cocaine and made 50k in cash on the deal, there aren't many places I can spend that cash without someone being suspicious. But if you walk into a card show with 50k nobody thinks twice. Buy a few high end pieces, flip them on eBay, pay your taxes, and those eBay payouts look clean as can be.

[Brobocop]

CardPorn is opening another ten cases tonight it looks like along with some other vintage and older boxes.


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[grade]

[QUOTE=blackbears86;18088664]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

I have a PhD in finance and my expertise is in financial market regulatory policy. Before that I worked at a Fortune 500 commercial bank.

Does that imply the prevalence of money laundering? Of course not. Do I have more than a “meme’s” worth of knowledge about the subject? Yes. Of course the preponderance of money being spent (and lost) in this hobby isn’t laundering. But if you think it’s impossible in a mostly unregulated market where 6-7 figure transactions occur frequently and massive amounts of money exchange hands across a relatively small number of participants, then you’re naive.[/QUOTE]



YES.


People have NO idea the money floating around in cards right now.

This has been going on for decades.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by brock

By my count, we should expect to see 217 lebron triple logomen by 2023!!

That's the great thing about changing to Fanatics I guess. You get a blank slate. And first Fanatics LeBron trip logo chainmail will covert the unbelievers. Start with bronze and work up to gold in the culminating year, his induction to HOF.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I've always thought the sports card business would be the perfect place to launder money. I have no doubt that it's happening. Maybe not to the extent that some on social media may think, but undoubtedly one would expect some percentage of large sports card transactions are being done with dirty money. It's also the path of least resistance. If I sold cocaine and made 50k in cash on the deal, there aren't many places I can spend that cash without someone being suspicious. But if you walk into a card show with 50k nobody thinks twice. Buy a few high end pieces, flip them on eBay, pay your taxes, and those eBay payouts look clean as can be.

I should be surprised that people don’t realize how relatively easy this is.

Thanks to the internet washing money has never been easier. Deal with items that have an intangible value in a completely unregulated market….

I could wash 9 figures in this hobby without anybody batting an eye. It’s not tough.

Card break businesses are the new record labels.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I've always thought the sports card business would be the perfect place to launder money. I have no doubt that it's happening.

So, the fact that cards have reached this stage is maybe an accomplishment. All emerging markets have this issue.

[ExpFacilitators]

[QUOTE=grade;18089114]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

This has been going on for decades.

Yeah. But a decade or two ago it was a lot harder to find a $100k card to spend on. Now if some half decent nba rookie has a good week suddenly he’s got a $100k logoman or whatever.

Because of some combination of laundering, status, and a hyper bubble of asset prices of all kinds, every half decent prospect is priced as the next lebron or Trout or whatever. There is a secondary class of break participant who can’t afford to lose 5-6 figures in a single break but believes they can either hit a massive card (and now we see the probability of that is virtually zero) or hit a decent rookie and wait for one player of the week award and flip to someone else willing to pay 5 figures for a card of a nobody.

I am old enough to remember when Blake Griffin NT RPAs were nuts. $20-25k for a single card and people thought that was nuts. There’s a BGS 9.5 ensign tomorrow sitting at $260 currently.

Nobody ever talks about the big losses they take. And for a while the losses might be big in % terms but nobody was losing their house buying Tarvaris Jackson RPAs for $300 in 2006 (this is a self-own because I did that and now it’s worth $5, maybe). The equivalent today would be if Luka or Ja or maybe Zion turn out to have the career of Blake Griffin. Now instead of $25k ——> $1000 it’s gonna be $250,000—-> $2500.

And what is the upside that’s not priced in? Zion was at some point priced ahead of Giannis, Durant etc. Dominguez was getting close to Trout in some cases. So now the gamble is twofold. First you have to take a -90% EV shot and then if you stumble onto a good card. And then you gotta parlay that with the player being generational in order to see growth if you don’t immediately flip it.

Fascinating really

[bigjbasketball]

[QUOTE=ExpFacilitators;18090995]

Originally Posted by grade

Yeah. But a decade or two ago it was a lot harder to find a $100k card to spend on. Now if some half decent nba rookie has a good week suddenly he’s got a $100k logoman or whatever.

Because of some combination of laundering, status, and a hyper bubble of asset prices of all kinds, every half decent prospect is priced as the next lebron or Trout or whatever. There is a secondary class of break participant who can’t afford to lose 5-6 figures in a single break but believes they can either hit a massive card (and now we see the probability of that is virtually zero) or hit a decent rookie and wait for one player of the week award and flip to someone else willing to pay 5 figures for a card of a nobody.

I am old enough to remember when Blake Griffin NT RPAs were nuts. $20-25k for a single card and people thought that was nuts. There’s a BGS 9.5 ensign tomorrow sitting at $260 currently.

Nobody ever talks about the big losses they take. And for a while the losses might be big in % terms but nobody was losing their house buying Tarvaris Jackson RPAs for $300 in 2006 (this is a self-own because I did that and now it’s worth $5, maybe). The equivalent today would be if Luka or Ja or maybe Zion turn out to have the career of Blake Griffin. Now instead of $25k ——> $1000 it’s gonna be $250,000—-> $2500.

And what is the upside that’s not priced in? Zion was at some point priced ahead of Giannis, Durant etc. Dominguez was getting close to Trout in some cases. So now the gamble is twofold. First you have to take a -90% EV shot and then if you stumble onto a hood card. And then you gotta parlay that with the player being generational in order to see growth if you don’t immediately flip it.

Fascinating really

For the people paying that kind of money on young and unproven players, I don’t know exactly what they’re thinking because I’d never spend 6 figures on a card, but here’s my uneducated guess. The only thing that makes any sense to me is that they believe the market as a whole will continue to rise, which will help to continue to lift all boats and also help protect their risky investments. What I mean is this - how much was a LeBron Exquisite RPA like 15-20 years ago? Maybe 5 figures? Now it’s a 7-figure card. So yes the player they are investing in still has to have a great career - if that doesn’t happen, they’re going to lose money no matter what - but I think they’re banking on continuous large jumps in the future, which means a LeBron RPA might be an 8-figure card someday, and their 6-figure investment might turn into a 7-figure return. Although like you said, the losses will be huge no matter what if they player’s career doesn’t pan out, and those losses will be much bigger than they used to be.

[sportsfanatic]

There's rampant money laundering going on with high-end cards by a small group of individuals. And its also increasingly trickled down to fellas buying five figure (or even less) cards. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just being naïve. One of the easiest ways to wash money these days

[Nomad]

[QUOTE=ExpFacilitators;18090995]

Originally Posted by grade

Yeah. But a decade or two ago it was a lot harder to find a $100k card to spend on. Now if some half decent nba rookie has a good week suddenly he’s got a $100k logoman or whatever.

But a Giannis equivalent 2nd or 3rd year player who didn't come in with the built-in hype is still priced at peanuts. That is the chase.

[ACCDADEAL]

As someone that was baked into a certain lifestyles many moons ago. I assure you trading cards for some is a way to wash that cash. That is all I am gonna say. Not news.

[tolrobb]

Originally Posted by ACCDADEAL

As someone that was baked into a certain lifestyles many moons ago. I assure you trading cards for some is a way to wash that cash. That is all I am gonna say. Not news.

As I was watching the show Power, I always said they should open a card shop.

[Lone Wulf]

As someone whose job title is AML Compliance Officer (at a major bank) I always find the money laundering memes a bit amusing. It is 100% happening, but people throw it out randomly on stuff and think they are being smart or something. From the bank perspective, the money coming in is clean at the point they get it from the "legit" card sales off ebay or wherever. Not saying it isn't problematic as a whole, but when the clean money is deposited via ACH there is nothing the bank is doing or can do.

So the only real place to introduce any type of controls that could work is on the initial card sales. If the card industry keeps heating up I could potentially see there being more strict regulations on high dollar purchases and the places they happen. The Dallas Card Show for instance is local to me so I see the insane cards showing up there every few months. It seems bazaar to fathom that the government would ever enforce some type of reporting at the Dallas Card Show and hold the Dallas Card Show organizers accountable, but it does makes some sense imo. It would be super easy for someone from finCEN to show up at the Dallas Card Show as an attendee and see if people were self-reporting their large dollar cash transactions, and if they aren't, hold the organizers responsible. Something like providing forms to fill out at every dealer table and ensuring that everyone is complying, or some type of higher end monitoring system of some kind - up to the organizers to capture every transaction that takes place. Just like how a bank can't turn a blind eye when a customer is laundering money in their account, how would the Dallas Card Show organizers and venue be allowed to facilitate on-going money laundering concerns at their card show. And if it is an on-going problem that persists, they would just be forced to shut down.

Didn't mean to go full 1984 dystopian card economy, that is probably worst case scenario if Fanatics perceived valuation of the hobby actually transpires in the future. Seems like it would be a decent bet that some type of stronger regulations will come down across the hobby at some point though. And even if it does, that doesn't stop individuals from doing 1 on 1 cash deals and still just not reporting anything.

Anyway, interesting discussion topic.

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by Lone Wulf

As someone whose job title is AML Compliance Officer (at a major bank) I always find the money laundering memes a bit amusing. It is 100% happening, but people throw it out randomly on stuff and think they are being smart or something.

Exactly the point I was trying to make, yes. Though I'm not an AML Compliance Officer, I do work on 8- to 10-digit securities offerings on a regular basis, so I interact with your colleagues frequently...

[grade]

i am not a AML Compliance Officer


But i tell you that money has been in card collecting for decades unreported.

That is only the tip of the iceberg. If you know , you know. Does not take years of education in a banking job . All you need is the experience of having expensive cards and what to do with them to learn the ways .

[sportsfanatic]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Exactly the point I was trying to make, yes. Though I'm not an AML Compliance Officer, I do work on 8- to 10-digit securities offerings on a regular basis, so I interact with your colleagues frequently...

If you don't know, you just don't know. Just b/c YOU haven't engaged in money laundering through purchases of 5-7 figure cards doesn't mean it's not occurring, rampantly. And what does being a AML compliance officer have anything to do with this LOL, c'mon now

[kjetilfan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I haven’t cringed this much watching a break since those topps rip parties and the 2007 exquisite football debacle.

Is there a thread somewhere about the Exquisite?