Why is there almost always a huge lull in baseball from april til july?

[hermanotarjeta]

I think most baseball card investors are advanced enough to buy during the offseason and start unloading as people get hot.

I have noticed annually that as long as nobody is hitting 15 home runs in april, baseball cards are pretty much dead until July or later, when stats start to build up, even though the season is going full steam.

Also, full game no-hitters get halted by coaching decisions early in the season.

Is it because people are waiting for basketball playoffs to end?

Or is the real baseball card flipping season during the offseason now?

[jerrygarcia]

the season is too long.

Everyone looks good in spring training, but only extra ordinary results are met with appreciation in the regular season.

[speedyjg13]

Everyone is in on this industry, they know how it works.

People rather lose money and keep a card than to lose money on it

[imbluestreak23]

I don't know man, July-October seems to be a sucky time to sell baseball. Seems like prime selling is always February. The very day that a player starts putting up 0-fers, prices seem to drop immediately as if a companys earnings reports were just published with 20% less revenue collected for the previous quarter.

[Cardboard Dawg]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I don't know man, July-October seems to be a sucky time to sell baseball. Seems like prime selling is always February. The very day that a player starts putting up 0-fers, prices seem to drop immediately as if a companys earnings reports were just published with 20% less revenue collected for the previous quarter.

Or a company loses 200,000 subscribers and projects to lose 2 million more in the next quarter?

[hermanotarjeta]

At least in july and august, people are speculating on end of season numbers/awards/playoff runs and making their last attempts to flip.

Then football season starts and baseball dies again.

It really seems like the dip is the two weeks after the world series now and sell in february like everyone has alluded to.

Season performance doesn't do anything, especially with earlier year stats.

And now so many people are selling the spikes/hot streaks, it seems like you are definitely paying more for cards in february and breaking even or holding bags for the rest of the season.

And then you hear the investors calling their purchases "long-term holds" and "gonna turn a profit when he enters the HOF".

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Cardboard Dawg

Or a company loses 200,000 subscribers and projects to lose 2 million more in the next quarter?

There only saving grace being Stranger Things

Yeah, if that company went away I'd be okay with it

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Cardboard Dawg

Or a company loses 200,000 subscribers and projects to lose 2 million more in the next quarter?

Can you imagine if you bought a Bobby Witt Jr. chrome auto for $1000 in february, and watched it drop to $300 four months later?

That's what nflx just did.

[ThoseBackPages]

its fun to collect 12 months a year

[rwperu34]

What I've Seen In the Past-Normal Times

In both 2018 and 2019 prices hit bottom in November of the previous year, started to rise slowly until mid February, then would rise fast to a peak around opening day. They would be flat or slightly up through July with the money shifting from cold players to hot players. Then they would remain flat or lose a little bit until they hit the nadir in November.

What I've Seen In the Past-Abnormal Times

2020 followed a fairly normal path in the offseason, then the pandemic hit. Obviously nobody is drawing any conclusions from that season.

Leading into 2021 prices actually went up in November. Then they went up again in December. Then they went up again in January, bringing out the Bubble Bois in full force. They were flat for a few weeks in February before starting their normal big runup hitting peak in mid April.

During the 2021 season prices actually contracted quite a bit (maybe 20%). On field play still mattered a lot, but it was more of whether your guy was going to get hurt or crushed. Then they dropped a little like normal between July and November.

What I've Seen This Year

It's still Abnormal Times, no doubt. Prices hit the nadir in November, like normal, but the offseason was very slow....especially March.

One thing I saw this year that I hadn't seen in the past is a player look like he was going to get away from November pricing but then fall back. In previous years if a guy popped up 50% you weren't going to see November prices until a regular season slump. That happened with Alek Thomas this year.

Another big difference is the divergence in PSA 10 base/chrome/refractors vs BCA. In the past if the BCA went up all of that other stuff would follow. I haven't updated my Price Index yet, but I'd be surprised if BCA aren't up at least a little since November. PSA 10 base/chrome/refractors are for sure down, probably by ~20-30%.

While prices might not be up, volume sure is. I've sent out 3x as many packages in the last four weeks as I did in the first four of 2022. April is already my biggest month of the year for both packages sent and total sales with 10 days still to go. My 7 day average snipe winning percentage is at its lowest point ever, so maybe prices are up a little, for auctions anyways.

Some of the Obvious Potential Causes

The PSA Deluge-The demand is still there, but prices are getting crushed due to so much supply. This is a permanent change IMO (Flagship RC in PSA 10 will have a ceiling of ~$40 going forward). When the demand wanes (ie during a recession), prices are going to absolutely crater...and probably take everything else down with them.

The Lockout-Duh . Cactus League attendance and enthusiasm was down this year. We basically had four weeks instead of six and the first two were more like the offseason. So only two weeks of ST runup vs the usual six.

The Overall Economic Outlook-The recession indicators are starting to pile up. We can't avoid one forever.

The Disappointing Prospect Class-So far anyways.

Who Is Really Hot?-Eyeballing it a couple of days ago and it was Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado, two borderline HOFers that already have a base. Then No Card Suzuki and No Card Kwan. There just isn't much to be excited about...yet.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

What I've Seen In the Past-Normal Times

In both 2018 and 2019 prices hit bottom in November of the previous year, started to rise slowly until mid February, then would rise fast to a peak around opening day. They would be flat or slightly up through July with the money shifting from cold players to hot players. Then they would remain flat or lose a little bit until they hit the nadir in November.

What I've Seen In the Past-Abnormal Times

2020 followed a fairly normal path in the offseason, then the pandemic hit. Obviously nobody is drawing any conclusions from that season.

Leading into 2021 prices actually went up in November. Then they went up again in December. Then they went up again in January, bringing out the Bubble Bois in full force. They were flat for a few weeks in February before starting their normal big runup hitting peak in mid April.

During the 2021 season prices actually contracted quite a bit (maybe 20%). On field play still mattered a lot, but it was more of whether your guy was going to get hurt or crushed. Then they dropped a little like normal between July and November.

What I've Seen This Year

It's still Abnormal Times, no doubt. Prices hit the nadir in November, like normal, but the offseason was very slow....especially March.

One thing I saw this year that I hadn't seen in the past is a player look like he was going to get away from November pricing but then fall back. In previous years if a guy popped up 50% you weren't going to see November prices until a regular season slump. That happened with Alek Thomas this year.

Another big difference is the divergence in PSA 10 base/chrome/refractors vs BCA. In the past if the BCA went up all of that other stuff would follow. I haven't updated my Price Index yet, but I'd be surprised if BCA aren't up at least a little since November. PSA 10 base/chrome/refractors are for sure down, probably by ~20-30%.

While prices might not be up, volume sure is. I've sent out 3x as many packages in the last four weeks as I did in the first four of 2022. April is already my biggest month of the year for both packages sent and total sales with 10 days still to go. My 7 day average snipe winning percentage is at its lowest point ever, so maybe prices are up a little, for auctions anyways.

Some of the Obvious Potential Causes

The PSA Deluge-The demand is still there, but prices are getting crushed due to so much supply. This is a permanent change IMO (Flagship RC in PSA 10 will have a ceiling of ~$40 going forward). When the demand wanes (ie during a recession), prices are going to absolutely crater...and probably take everything else down with them.

The Lockout-Duh . Cactus League attendance and enthusiasm was down this year. We basically had four weeks instead of six and the first two were more like the offseason. So only two weeks of ST runup vs the usual six.

The Overall Economic Outlook-The recession indicators are starting to pile up. We can't avoid one forever.

The Disappointing Prospect Class-So far anyways.

Who Is Really Hot?-Eyeballing it a couple of days ago and it was Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado, two borderline HOFers that already have a base. Then No Card Suzuki and No Card Kwan. There just isn't much to be excited about...yet.

Great take... The biggest thing you said that stuck out was the base card PSA for rookies. Prior to pandemic, you could have a player's base go from $25 to $100 when they go on a hot streak and then settle in the $60 once there is more supply ie people sending in those cards.

Take a look at Bieber prices, when he was dominating his base PSA 10 was going for close to $100 and his PSA 10 chrome auto (very few were graded of his overall) was over $500. Now that a ton of his cards have been graded (his stat line is still good but not THAT good when he won the Cy Young). His base now goes for $15-25 and chrome goes for under $250. Granted his play isn't like it was, but he is still a Cy Young caliber player, but there is just so much more supply now of his card.

[MegaMan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Can you imagine if you bought a Bobby Witt Jr. chrome auto for $1000 in february, and watched it drop to $300 four months later?

That's what nflx just did.

i don't see that Witt scenario being too big a stretch actually

[rngrdanny22]

The past 3 years, my strongest months have been April, May, June...

[DynaEtch]

Someone made a good post yesterday in a thread about ebay low auction sales, along the lines of people get caught up in the hype/anticipation and once the season starts it's kind of a "realized' situation, and so prices come back down a bit. Obviously if the player underperforms, but perhaps even if the player is having more or less solid numbers- still a timing thing in that it's already happened/happening.


My perspective from a nonsports, particularly Marvel card background: I noticed 2022 has shown similarities to 2021 in that prices were spiking and going nuts Jan-March, to a huge come-down in April 2021, while a slight comedown in April 2022. Now Marvel cards, unlike sports cards, dont have a "season" so to speak, so this calendar phenomenon demands an explanation (if it's not just a chance coincidence). Perhaps "to-the-moon" bois are more active in the early months particularly starting Jan for whatever reason. By april in the year cycle the market fatigue sets in a bit, people who are cooped up in home in the cold weather buying cards online are getting out more in the warmer months, starting to travel more etc. It's hard to tell.

[MegaMan]

Very generally, here's how I see the baseball hobby cycle. Spring training (esp w/r/t prospects/rookies) through April feels like you're trading a newly listed IPO. Big swings based on an eye-catching game (See Vlad 3 HR game against NYY) or cold start (See Kyle Tucker). A day or two one way or another for an auction listing can mean a 50% difference in sale price for some cards! As more stats accumulate, those peaks and valleys become less pronounced and the risers and fallers for that season come into focus. It seems like Vlad Jr. is getting a lot of hype (and early auction returns) to be "that guy" on the riser side for 2022 ... huge numbers in 2021 but largely overshadowed (in both the hobby and MVP voting) by Ohtani.

The early season mania slowly dissipates throughout the season, resulting in a downtrend (with little pops here and there for awards/PS success) that continues through early winter, until the hype cycle is ready to start up again as pitchers and catchers get ready to report. (This doesn't address macro trends like PSA 10 base cards generally becoming more and more devalued as pop reports skyrocket - those will tear through the hobby without a care for who's hot and who's not.)

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Who Is Really Hot?

The answer is rwperu34. Just wanted to let you know I love reading your takes, analysis, and content.

Thanks for taking the time to put it out there.

[Triple B]

Lots of guessing before the season starts. People buying and selling hype and anticipation and then reality hits from April to October. People buying high on a week-long hot streak and dumping at a loss the next when it becomes a cold streak. To me, baseball cards especially is all about “what have you done for me lately?”. I’ve sat through people saying I was crazy for buying Vlad to writing him off completely to now wanting everything with his pic on it. If Vlad goes cold for a stretch, there will be people writing him off again. All in cycles.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Cards follow the typical alt-investment model where sellers create FOMO and appeal to a potential investor buyer’s greed to try to maximize profit.

There are standard situations and times of year where using one or a combination of both FOMO and greed produces the best results for the flipper-investor. As each year is a little different based on variables already discussed, the most effective flipper/investor knows how to adjust each.

But for the majority of time, most cards will always be available to a particular buyer if he/she waits long enough for it to come up for sale.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

Someone made a good post yesterday in a thread about ebay low auction sales, along the lines of people get caught up in the hype/anticipation and once the season starts it's kind of a "realized' situation, and so prices come back down a bit. Obviously if the player underperforms, but perhaps even if the player is having more or less solid numbers- still a timing thing in that it's already happened/happening.


My perspective from a nonsports, particularly Marvel card background: I noticed 2022 has shown similarities to 2021 in that prices were spiking and going nuts Jan-March, to a huge come-down in April 2021, while a slight comedown in April 2022. Now Marvel cards, unlike sports cards, dont have a "season" so to speak, so this calendar phenomenon demands an explanation (if it's not just a chance coincidence). Perhaps "to-the-moon" bois are more active in the early months particularly starting Jan for whatever reason. By april in the year cycle the market fatigue sets in a bit, people who are cooped up in home in the cold weather buying cards online are getting out more in the warmer months, starting to travel more etc. It's hard to tell.

One thing I had considered is if baseball is dominant in this industry, maybe peak baseball drives the other types of cards?

Another factor would be taxes. People who are active in this realm probably tend to owe taxes. Since those get paid in mid April they would take a fair bit of money out of the hobby, even if only for a short while.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

The answer is rwperu34. Just wanted to let you know I love reading your takes, analysis, and content.

Thanks for taking the time to put it out there.

Thank you

I want to expound on this thought a little. Coming into the day the league was hitting .230, .377 SLG, with 4.02 R/G and HR being down ~25%. Based on the early results of today, my guess is those numbers go down.

When you're looking at under 4 runs per team per game it is very difficult to generate hobby excitement. Pitchers don't really get it done in normal times. Even more so when the headline is "Pulled After 7 Perfect" rather than "Future HOFer Throws Perfect Game".

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

Someone made a good post yesterday in a thread about ebay low auction sales, along the lines of people get caught up in the hype/anticipation and once the season starts it's kind of a "realized' situation, and so prices come back down a bit. Obviously if the player underperforms, but perhaps even if the player is having more or less solid numbers- still a timing thing in that it's already happened/happening.


My perspective from a nonsports, particularly Marvel card background: I noticed 2022 has shown similarities to 2021 in that prices were spiking and going nuts Jan-March, to a huge come-down in April 2021, while a slight comedown in April 2022. Now Marvel cards, unlike sports cards, dont have a "season" so to speak, so this calendar phenomenon demands an explanation (if it's not just a chance coincidence). Perhaps "to-the-moon" bois are more active in the early months particularly starting Jan for whatever reason. By april in the year cycle the market fatigue sets in a bit, people who are cooped up in home in the cold weather buying cards online are getting out more in the warmer months, starting to travel more etc. It's hard to tell.

The last few years it seems like the pandemic pump definitely played a big role in driving prices up from Jan-mar.

This year everyone’s going to be paying much higher interest rates for everything leaving less money for collectibles in general. Perhaps we’re seeing this change in buying habits to correlate with that economic adjustment.

We’ve seen speculative equities tank as a result of this (60-70% declines), could this be a warning for collectibles as well?

In the past, these economic downturns never effected card prices much.

But you have to remember, we’ve never seen this pandemic pump in the history of collectibles either, so prices have the potential to drop quite a bit from historic highs.

[cl456123]

Originally Posted by MegaMan

i don't see that Witt scenario being too big a stretch actually

Is this actual fact? I haven't been all that active in the buy/sell/trade world this year with no Bowman release yet and nothing really being any interest besides Wander numbered RC's.

I own several Bobby Witt 1st bowman autos but they're mostly longer term holds for me personally than quick flips. I always thought the 1K price range for his base auto was insane as the base i have i pack pulled, but $300? That to me actually seems awful low for what he projects to be (again Imo at least).

[cl456123]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

What I've Seen In the Past-Normal Times


Who Is Really Hot?-Eyeballing it a couple of days ago and it was Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado, two borderline HOFers that already have a base. Then No Card Suzuki and No Card Kwan. There just isn't much to be excited about...yet.

Didn't want to quote your entire post, but absolutely awesome write-up so kudos to an extremely eloquent and informatively written piece sincerely.

What i actually find almost most interesting as someone who doesn't really typically buy or sell graded cards so that isn't a conversation that so much interests me, but your last statement above regarding "Who is Really Hot" because your answer is absolutely correct. It's really nobody besides Jose and Nolan who dont get a ton of hobby love to begin with and then the hottest 2 rookies dont yet have RC's and all of the big time big name prospects who are now Rookies, pick your damn choice.... Bobby Witt, Spencer Tork, Julio Rodriguez, CJ Abrams, Bryson Stott, they are all struggling mightily. Can that change quickly with a hot streak or as they get more accustomed to big league pitching? Sure it can, but people also forget that it does sometimes take these guys awhile before they do. Vlad Jr is the primary and most current example who was expected to light the world on first and due to various circumstances he just didn't until last year which was year 3 (albeit 2020 was of course a very shortened COVID season) but never the less the fact is his first 2 MLB seasons were not good but then 2021 his stuff skyrocketed.

[MegaMan]

It’s not a fact at all! And it’s nothing against Witt prices either (well, at least not entirely). But I do think there’s something of a bubble feel lately - guys with zero ML experience commanding premiums compared to MVPs and even future HOFers. I get it, “prospecting” has paid off for a lot of guys over the last couple years. Just not sure where this all ends up when there aren’t 50-60 guys slashing 450/750/1200 with 50+ bombs annually in the majors.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by cl456123

Is this actual fact? I haven't been all that active in the buy/sell/trade world this year with no Bowman release yet and nothing really being any interest besides Wander numbered RC's.

I own several Bobby Witt 1st bowman autos but they're mostly longer term holds for me personally than quick flips. I always thought the 1K price range for his base auto was insane as the base i have i pack pulled, but $300? That to me actually seems awful low for what he projects to be (again Imo at least).

What is fact is that the higher card price buy-ins get, the further they can fall in price.

In the past when people were speculating on first bowman chrome autos, the best guys would be $100 tops, then $300 a few years later, then $500-$800.

Now we are looking at $1000+ buy ins for the most elite prospects, and not all of them are gonna pan out.

They can fall quite a bit.