Buyer Beware - NFTs NOT Random!

jmoneyfdl · 02-15-2022, 06:46 AM

Well, I hate to be that guy, but enough is enough. Anyone who has ripped enough Panini retail has certainly noticed that the first round of blasters, hangers, etc. released, has probably 75% of the overall hits in the product. Good way to generate hype, bring you back for more. The collation is horrible after that. And now, they're doing it with NFTs. I bought 75 Packs of 2021-22 Panini Foot Fr Stickers. Stated odds were Parallel 1/4 packs overall. 1/7 Red #/59, 1/16 Blue #/25, 1/38 Gold #/10. I was at 42 Packs, and only had 6 parallels, which is about 60% of the stated odds, with 5 reds, 1 gold, no blue. I mentioned something on Panini social media, and got 3 consecutive packs with parallels after. However, at 75 packs, I now have 16 total, still about 3 short. Of those, 2 are Gold, the other 14 are Red. This is a massive disparity in terms of rarity. Furthermore, I have 3 #'d 35/59, 3 #'d 48/59, 2 #'d 1/59, 2 #'d 2/59. For 10 of my 14 reds to be spread across 4 serial numbers randomly is a mathematical impossibility. Therefore, what you will get no matter how many packs you buy, has also already been pre-determined! See pics for proof. Not to mention that right after they dropped, Panini was posting picks of Blues on the sale block. Because all of the Blues went out right away.

YayNJ · 02-15-2022, 08:06 AM

BRob1 · 02-15-2022, 08:30 AM

i don’t know about nft’s but i have always been in the camp that early panini retail product has more hits than later. That very well may be tin foil though.

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Paderborn1907 · 02-16-2022, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmoneyfdl

I mentioned something on Panini social media, and got 3 consecutive packs with parallels after.

So you think they changed the randomizer for you because you complaint on social media? Lol

That’s how odds and randomizers work, sometimes you get lucky sometimes not.

I also haven’t seen any high amounts of Blue parallels yet, very few Mbappe and Messi blues have hit the market yet.

mjohnatgt · 02-16-2022, 05:41 AM

In a true blockchain, you'd be able to see the items as they're opened. On the Dapper group of NFT sites, people noticed that not all of the /75 cards were inserted into the UFC Strike packs that they promised, and Dapper responded by sending out 1-card packs with better odds of hitting those /75 rares to make the odds right, and also refunded the $50/pack for all 100,000 packs sold during the drop. So you basically got your 4 moments (instead of the original 3 in a pack) and then got your cash back if you bought a pack. I bought 3 at the time, so I got my whole $150 funded and have 12 "free" NFTs in my account based on the refund.

I think you'd have more trust if you actually viewed the results on the blockchain with Panini and could confirm this on a release over time.

monkeymcgee · 02-16-2022, 07:40 AM

I opened more of these than I care to admit and you definitely hit some "dry spots" that are hard to believe. I had some that were in the neighborhood of what OP reported and then hot crazy streaks to either start or finish a large batch of packs. I had better parallel success generally buying in batches of 12 a few times versus the max of 25 a few times, which makes no sense.

Definitely small populations and not enough to say there's an issue, but something seems off with the odds.

gomiamigo · 02-17-2022, 01:58 PM

Hits come out of physical boxes and cases randomly, they certainly are not 'pre-seeded' as Panini is sold out to the wholesalers and massive dealers anyway. I've pulled enough monsters months after release.

Since most ripping occurs shortly after release, you'd expect more hits then anyway.

ACCDADEAL · 02-18-2022, 01:32 PM

Yeah I did 90 packs and got lucky definitely some dry spells but felt better than boxes and the price was value. I think these stickers are good holds.

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WhacksPacks · 02-21-2022, 05:24 PM

I bought 2 packs today for fun bc it seemed interesting and the cost was minimal.
Got two lower numbered base (one in each pack) and 2 very low numbered parallels (gold /10 and red /59). Both of the parallels are their jersey number. Obviously I am NOT complaining. But this is literally from 2 packs. So maybe there is something to what you're saying but I have no clue. Maybe I should've bought a few more. I won't though. Depending on what these go for I am still down thanks to their Football, Basketball and Baseball releases that have sold for $1-$2 each when I list them.

Kouame #6/10
Kakuta #10/59
Any clue on where I should start these?

YayNJ · 02-22-2022, 04:56 AM

you pulled nobodies unfortunately.

the soccer equivalent to Miles Plumlee and Bismack Biyombo

Mitch · 02-22-2022, 05:11 AM

Gael Kakuta was a one-time wonder kid! Flattered to deceive however.

monkeymcgee · 03-02-2022, 07:18 AM

There still seems to be hot and cold spells, but the odds seem to be about right over volume.

Having said that, this has been my favorite product of the year so far--fun $5 rips and some promising developments ahead that should lift values.

02-17-2022, 01:58 PM	#7
gomiamigo Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: in your head Posts: 10,954 esmoney gomiamigo	Hits come out of physical boxes and cases randomly, they certainly are not 'pre-seeded' as Panini is sold out to the wholesalers and massive dealers anyway. I've pulled enough monsters months after release. Since most ripping occurs shortly after release, you'd expect more hits then anyway. __________________ IG: KevinDurant35Cards

02-18-2022, 01:32 PM	#8
ACCDADEAL Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Charlottesville VA Posts: 3,475 collectionsuneed	Yeah I did 90 packs and got lucky definitely some dry spells but felt better than boxes and the price was value. I think these stickers are good holds. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk __________________ Strictly underground funk, keep the crossover. Please feel free to counter offer my prices in a PM. Thanks!

02-21-2022, 05:24 PM	#9
WhacksPacks Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 5,229 WhacksPacks	I bought 2 packs today for fun bc it seemed interesting and the cost was minimal. Got two lower numbered base (one in each pack) and 2 very low numbered parallels (gold /10 and red /59). Both of the parallels are their jersey number. Obviously I am NOT complaining. But this is literally from 2 packs. So maybe there is something to what you're saying but I have no clue. Maybe I should've bought a few more. I won't though. Depending on what these go for I am still down thanks to their Football, Basketball and Baseball releases that have sold for $1-$2 each when I list them. Kouame #6/10 Kakuta #10/59 Any clue on where I should start these? __________________ Buy what you like. Hold on to what you love. Last edited by WhacksPacks; 02-21-2022 at 05:26 PM.

02-15-2022, 06:46 AM	#1
jmoneyfdl Member Join Date: Jul 2020 Location: Somewhere in Wisconsin Posts: 11	Buyer Beware - NFTs NOT Random! Well, I hate to be that guy, but enough is enough. Anyone who has ripped enough Panini retail has certainly noticed that the first round of blasters, hangers, etc. released, has probably 75% of the overall hits in the product. Good way to generate hype, bring you back for more. The collation is horrible after that. And now, they're doing it with NFTs. I bought 75 Packs of 2021-22 Panini Foot Fr Stickers. Stated odds were Parallel 1/4 packs overall. 1/7 Red #/59, 1/16 Blue #/25, 1/38 Gold #/10. I was at 42 Packs, and only had 6 parallels, which is about 60% of the stated odds, with 5 reds, 1 gold, no blue. I mentioned something on Panini social media, and got 3 consecutive packs with parallels after. However, at 75 packs, I now have 16 total, still about 3 short. Of those, 2 are Gold, the other 14 are Red. This is a massive disparity in terms of rarity. Furthermore, I have 3 #'d 35/59, 3 #'d 48/59, 2 #'d 1/59, 2 #'d 2/59. For 10 of my 14 reds to be spread across 4 serial numbers randomly is a mathematical impossibility. Therefore, what you will get no matter how many packs you buy, has also already been pre-determined! See pics for proof. Not to mention that right after they dropped, Panini was posting picks of Blues on the sale block. Because all of the Blues went out right away. Attached Thumbnails

02-15-2022, 08:06 AM	#2
YayNJ Temporarily Suspended Join Date: May 2020 Location: London / Oahu Posts: 8,251 hanelcocards

02-15-2022, 08:30 AM	#3
BRob1 Member Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 7,116	i don’t know about nft’s but i have always been in the camp that early panini retail product has more hits than later. That very well may be tin foil though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-16-2022, 05:41 AM	#5
mjohnatgt Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Niceville, FL Posts: 14,590 mjohnatgt mjohnatgt	In a true blockchain, you'd be able to see the items as they're opened. On the Dapper group of NFT sites, people noticed that not all of the /75 cards were inserted into the UFC Strike packs that they promised, and Dapper responded by sending out 1-card packs with better odds of hitting those /75 rares to make the odds right, and also refunded the $50/pack for all 100,000 packs sold during the drop. So you basically got your 4 moments (instead of the original 3 in a pack) and then got your cash back if you bought a pack. I bought 3 at the time, so I got my whole $150 funded and have 12 "free" NFTs in my account based on the refund. I think you'd have more trust if you actually viewed the results on the blockchain with Panini and could confirm this on a release over time.

02-16-2022, 07:40 AM	#6
monkeymcgee Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: VA Posts: 10,974	I opened more of these than I care to admit and you definitely hit some "dry spots" that are hard to believe. I had some that were in the neighborhood of what OP reported and then hot crazy streaks to either start or finish a large batch of packs. I had better parallel success generally buying in batches of 12 a few times versus the max of 25 a few times, which makes no sense. Definitely small populations and not enough to say there's an issue, but something seems off with the odds.

02-22-2022, 04:56 AM	#10
YayNJ Temporarily Suspended Join Date: May 2020 Location: London / Oahu Posts: 8,251 hanelcocards	you pulled nobodies unfortunately. the soccer equivalent to Miles Plumlee and Bismack Biyombo

02-22-2022, 05:11 AM	#11
Mitch Member Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 988	Gael Kakuta was a one-time wonder kid! Flattered to deceive however.

03-02-2022, 07:18 AM	#12
monkeymcgee Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: VA Posts: 10,974	There still seems to be hot and cold spells, but the odds seem to be about right over volume. Having said that, this has been my favorite product of the year so far--fun $5 rips and some promising developments ahead that should lift values.