pcsportscards group submission thread(Results/General info)

[salthill]

Anyone know whether the pop reports on PSA’s website are updated live, or just in a big batch once a day? (Or whatever in between.)
And if so, at what time?
(ie I don’t want to waste time checking throughout the day if they can’t have changed.)

[htn315]

Originally Posted by salthill

Anyone know whether the pop reports on PSA’s website are updated live, or just in a big batch once a day? (Or whatever in between.)
And if so, at what time?
(ie I don’t want to waste time checking throughout the day if they can’t have changed.)

All the cards I've tracked always updated once a day, always an overnight update.

[salthill]

Originally Posted by htn315

All the cards I've tracked always updated once a day, always an overnight update.

Great. Thanks for that. (I shall spend the time saved making a nice mug of coffee.)

[Finest]

Paid for my order in 2021.56 about an hour ago. Still hasn't updated, shows negative balance on my page. Is it supposed to instantly update or is that a manual process?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Finest

Paid for my order in 2021.56 about an hour ago. Still hasn't updated, shows negative balance on my page. Is it supposed to instantly update or is that a manual process?

Manual.

[Finest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Manual.

Ok. Thanks for the quick reply.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

And guess which one has not moved still? Lol….

Mine.

That's at least 21 subs that have moved from assembly to QA1 in the last three days. When we were getting low on assembly (was it down to 30?) I thought good, it will be soon. But now that the floodgates have opened from grading to assembly, we could be pushed back even farther.

That's 15 weeks (106 days) in assembly, for anybody still counting.

[rwperu34]

Question for jewcer2k5. How many cards did PC_Sportscards send to PSA during January and February 2021?

Second, what % of the PSA backlog do you think PC_Sportscards was responsible for? Or, what % of new submissions was PC_Sportscards responsible for?

Reason I ask is because the other thread you implied that prices may bottom in the $20 to $25 range. I personally think they can and will fall much farther than that once PSA is accepting well over 1,000,000 new submissions per month. Just trying to gauge the insanity of Jan/Feb 2021 compared to that number.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Question for jewcer2k5. How many cards did PC_Sportscards send to PSA during January and February 2021?

Second, what % of the PSA backlog do you think PC_Sportscards was responsible for? Or, what % of new submissions was PC_Sportscards responsible for?

Reason I ask is because the other thread you implied that prices may bottom in the $20 to $25 range. I personally think they can and will fall much farther than that once PSA is accepting well over 1,000,000 new submissions per month. Just trying to gauge the insanity of Jan/Feb 2021 compared to that number.

18-20k in Feb, then hit 30k the last week in Feb. You can go back a bit from there and might find counts for Jan, by week.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...0#post17038730

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...5#post17052735

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Question for jewcer2k5. How many cards did PC_Sportscards send to PSA during January and February 2021?

Second, what % of the PSA backlog do you think PC_Sportscards was responsible for? Or, what % of new submissions was PC_Sportscards responsible for?

Reason I ask is because the other thread you implied that prices may bottom in the $20 to $25 range. I personally think they can and will fall much farther than that once PSA is accepting well over 1,000,000 new submissions per month. Just trying to gauge the insanity of Jan/Feb 2021 compared to that number.

We sent ~150,000 cards in early 2021. I have the exact number in the spreadsheets but roughing it (5% variance).

I’d say we were somewhere between 4-6% of the backlog and the submissions overall.

I think in 2022 the lowest we will see is $25. As they open the east coast and hopefully other facilities they will increase output and we may see lower prices.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Mine.

That's at least 21 subs that have moved from assembly to QA1 in the last three days. When we were getting low on assembly (was it down to 30?) I thought good, it will be soon. But now that the floodgates have opened from grading to assembly, we could be pushed back even farther.

That's 15 weeks (106 days) in assembly, for anybody still counting.

The notorious 55 submission has definitely shown that PSA needs a much better system to move their submission through the system. We are both in the same one and it is beyond ridiculous for this submission.

I also believe we have been jumped by more valuable submission to PSA.

[towerymt]

Plus one day.

[KhalDrogo]

Rev is going to be so mad when QA2 takes a month while they figure out all the upcharges for his cards.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

We sent ~150,000 cards in early 2021. I have the exact number in the spreadsheets but roughing it (5% variance).

I’d say we were somewhere between 4-6% of the backlog and the submissions overall.

I think in 2022 the lowest we will see is $25. As they open the east coast and hopefully other facilities they will increase output and we may see lower prices.

yeah, the real cheap stuff wont happen until the east coast facility is open. Aside from maybe some sort of esoteric special, like 90s baseball steroid using HOFers.

edit: i think if they just block out pokemon and ultra modern basketball they would really cut down on subs. they graded over 80k pokemon cards last week.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by anusinha

yeah, the real cheap stuff wont happen until the east coast facility is open. Aside from maybe some sort of esoteric special, like 90s baseball steroid using HOFers.

edit: i think if they just block out pokemon and ultra modern basketball they would really cut down on subs. they graded over 80k pokemon cards last week.

Why block out Pokémon? Those are cards that people want to grade and for vintage more valuable then most of the ultra modern stuff being graded. The issue to me is not “what” people grade, but how PSA handles the submissions. Ultra modern basketball drove the hobby.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by anusinha

yeah, the real cheap stuff wont happen until the east coast facility is open. Aside from maybe some sort of esoteric special, like 90s baseball steroid using HOFers.

edit: i think if they just block out pokemon and ultra modern basketball they would really cut down on subs. they graded over 80k pokemon cards last week.

Im interested to see how they push people to certain facilities. I believe that Cali will always be the biggest operation.

Interesting thought - Maybe just dealer contracts use the East Coast facility and regular submitters send to Cali. Simple split and makes management of that easier.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

We sent ~150,000 cards in early 2021. I have the exact number in the spreadsheets but roughing it (5% variance).

I’d say we were somewhere between 4-6% of the backlog and the submissions overall.

I think in 2022 the lowest we will see is $25. As they open the east coast and hopefully other facilities they will increase output and we may see lower prices.

At those numbers, assuming PSA can do 800,000 a month right now, PC_Sportscards could theoretically take in 40,000 a month. Adjust up from there for any extra capacity we're missing or the extra facility...etc.

It looks like about half of that 150,000 came in the last three weeks of February (price increase, nearing the market peak).That leaves about 15,000 a week at the early part. That is 60,000 per month (give or take). For PSA to be able to handle that type of volume they'd need to be able to spit out 1,200,000 slabs per month.

No doubt it will be 2023 before grading price really drops since there are really two backlogs; the big, obvious one and the stealth one...all those cards that are sitting in boxes waiting for the price to come down. Still, these numbers strengthen my conviction that the price will come waaay down in the long run, perhaps even below early 2021 levels.

[chiefsncards275]

There’s 3 certainties in life. Death, taxes, and checking this thread to find the reverend complaining.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by chiefsncards275

There’s 3 certainties in life. Death, taxes, and checking this thread to find the reverend complaining.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly and as I said, once the notorious 55 submission is back in my hand my time in this thread will be over. Until then, “another one!”

[waytoomanycards]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

At those numbers, assuming PSA can do 800,000 a month right now, PC_Sportscards could theoretically take in 40,000 a month. Adjust up from there for any extra capacity we're missing or the extra facility...etc.

It looks like about half of that 150,000 came in the last three weeks of February (price increase, nearing the market peak).That leaves about 15,000 a week at the early part. That is 60,000 per month (give or take). For PSA to be able to handle that type of volume they'd need to be able to spit out 1,200,000 slabs per month.

No doubt it will be 2023 before grading price really drops since there are really two backlogs; the big, obvious one and the stealth one...all those cards that are sitting in boxes waiting for the price to come down. Still, these numbers strengthen my conviction that the price will come waaay down in the long run, perhaps even below early 2021 levels.

Plus, the market is undoubtedly thinning out some of the stealth backlog. Cards set aside for $15 grading 6-9 months ago will now need $10 or less.

If it were feasible for PSA to return individual cards ungraded, as opposed to entire orders, I'd bet a huge chunk of their actual backlog would disappear overnight. But most people have some good cards mixed in with the crap that's now worthless.

[Dr kicker]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

Exactly and as I said, once the notorious 55 submission is back in my hand my time in this thread will be over. Until then, “another one!”

Is it sitting in assembly since late November like Standard 2021-62 ? The wait is painfull.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

2/24/22

Researchandid 28
Grading 313
Assembly 86
QACheck1 35
QACheck2 6

ResearchandID 28
Grading 312
Assembly 71
QACheck1 48
QACheck2 8

Like I said we are gonna get crazy the first week of March. Its playing out exactly as expected.

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

Exactly and as I said, once the notorious 55 submission is back in my hand my time in this thread will be over. Until then, “another one!”

There are others that have unfortunately been in Assembly for the same amount of time. 55 is only notorious for one reason.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by Dr kicker

Is it sitting in assembly since late November like Standard 2021-62 ? The wait is painfull.

Yeap! Painful for a specific reason, but it will be over eventually!

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by waytoomanycards

Plus, the market is undoubtedly thinning out some of the stealth backlog. Cards set aside for $15 grading 6-9 months ago will now need $10 or less.

If it were feasible for PSA to return individual cards ungraded, as opposed to entire orders, I'd bet a huge chunk of their actual backlog would disappear overnight. But most people have some good cards mixed in with the crap that's now worthless.

This describes my outstanding sub perfectly. I've got about 5 cards (out of 33) that will pay the entire bill. Then 15 or so won't recoup grading fees even as a 10.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by waytoomanycards

Plus, the market is undoubtedly thinning out some of the stealth backlog. Cards set aside for $15 grading 6-9 months ago will now need $10 or less.

If it were feasible for PSA to return individual cards ungraded, as opposed to entire orders, I'd bet a huge chunk of their actual backlog would disappear overnight. But most people have some good cards mixed in with the crap that's now worthless.

This... this.. 100% this.
People who think PSA is going to get instantly swamped arent factoring in how the value of junk slabs has absolutely tanked.
There are waytoomany"junk"cards at PSA right now