Get ready for higher vintage prices

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by k13

Vintage has and will go down.
Sheep going from one thing to another.

True vintage will stay where it is and may go up. The issue is what people think is "vintage." We see new people on here thinking a 1986 Jerry Rice is vintage. Plus the 50's to 70's HOF RC's were all pumped.

The majority of vintage stuff I am buying these days were worth about the same 10 years ago when you consider inflation. Plus, I don't care about the value. They are in my collection for a reason. I just want the word "investor" out of this hobby. You are either collector or a flipper. If you are a flipper, that is absolutely fine. Own up to it! Calling yourself an investor may make you sleep better at night though. If you are investing your future on a hobby, you really need to take a personal finance class. I took advantage of NFT stupidity and grew my physical card collection from that as well. I probably have about $10,000 in Candy NFT's I need to unload. Will probably get a 1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig with that. Not as an "investment," but owning a piece of art that I want.

[mfw13]

Will be interesting to see how the pullback in the stock market (and altcoins) affects the sports card market.

Lots of people facing margin calls....

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by k13

Vintage has and will go down.
Sheep going from one thing to another.

What vintage "has and will" go down?

Vintage RCs, high grade, T206s, all up over the last 2,3,5,20 years

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

What vintage "has and will" go down?

Some people call the junk wax era "vintage."

Some stuff is down from the 2021 February insanity. However, even vintage cards that went down from the peak are close to recovering. Most other stuff is down 50% and more. There are some vintage cards that have seen a double boom, specifically NBA vintage, that are now stabilizing where they should be. Cards like the Dr. J, George Gervin, and Moses Malone rookies were pumped by Gary V in 2020 and then had another boom in 2021. However, these cards have been extremely stable for 7 months now, can't say that about a lot of NBA cards.

[pdxprospect]

It feels like a lot of people here are making absolute statements that are simply not true, based upon their extreme stances. I feel it might be more in the middle.

Personally, I appreciate SCI posting videos on vintage and welcome it, as I feel that any interest in the vintage market or hobby as a whole is great for those already in it.
I do not think the vintage market will double, but I also do not think it will go down much.
I am banking on a small increase over time, just as it has proven to do (except spring '21) over the last 5+ years.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by pdxprospect

It feels like a lot of people here are making absolute statements that are simply not true, based upon their extreme stances. I feel it might be more in the middle.

Personally, I appreciate SCI posting videos on vintage and welcome it, as I feel that any interest in the vintage market or hobby as a whole is great for those already in it.
I do not think the vintage market will double, but I also do not think it will go down much.
I am banking on a small increase over time, just as it has proven to do (except spring '21) over the last 5+ years.

The problem I have with SCI is that he does not have the experience in vintage or expertise to help people. All the information he gives is from charts and without any experience. He needs an expert to report on this and not graphs.

He did a disservice to many people by his grading advice in the beginning. He didn't understand grading and was trying to teach others about grading. It wasn't until he partnered with Joe from GotBaseballCards that any decent advice was given.

Now he is giving advice about vintage, which he doesn't even collect. This is the issue I have with Geoff. He portrays himself as an expert in cards. SGC values should also be included with his vintage analysis, but I doubt he even knows that SGC is respected in the vintage community.

My nephew asked for advice in cards recently asking what product to buy. I told him that I don't know because I don't collect ultra-modern. I could look at graphs like Geoff does and pretend that I know what I am talking about, but I won't do that. I told him to find someone that is experienced in that part of the hobby.

If Geoff wants to talk about vintage, he should bring in his buddy Joe. Describing how to collect vintage is extremely important. What happens here is we will get a bunch of new people buying PSA vintage with qualifiers, which are more common in older PSA cards, and bad centering/registration. I want people having a great experience in the hobby and I have many PM's with new vintage collectors helping them out. Educating them on PSA/SGC/BVG, the importance of eye-appeal and value, and also how to look out for fakes.

[mintacular]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The problem I have with SCI is that he does not have the experience in vintage or expertise to help people. All the information he gives is from charts and without any experience. He needs an expert to report on this and not graphs.

He did a disservice to many people by his grading advice in the beginning. He didn't understand grading and was trying to teach others about grading. It wasn't until he partnered with Joe from GotBaseballCards that any decent advice was given.

Now he is giving advice about vintage, which he doesn't even collect. This is the issue I have with Geoff. He portrays himself as an expert in cards. SGC values should also be included with his vintage analysis, but I doubt he even knows that SGC is respected in the vintage community.

My nephew asked for advice in cards recently asking what product to buy. I told him that I don't know because I don't collect ultra-modern. I could look at graphs like Geoff does and pretend that I know what I am talking about, but I won't do that. I told him to find someone that is experienced in that part of the hobby.

In other words, many of the cards he presents have probably already peaked or are close to it, so to buy now you probably see it flatline or at best crawl upwards, especially since the whole market boomed the last 2 years and that type of growth is gonzo, even with vintage

If Geoff wants to talk about vintage, he should bring in his buddy Joe. Describing how to collect vintage is extremely important. What happens here is we will get a bunch of new people buying PSA vintage with qualifiers, which are more common in older PSA cards, and bad centering/registration. I want people having a great experience in the hobby and I have many PM's with new vintage collectors helping them out. Educating them on PSA/SGC/BVG, the importance of eye-appeal and value, and also how to look out for fakes.

Also the issue with Geoff is that he presents cards AFTER they have been running up (Example: '55 Clemente) and so to buy in on that card and many of the others like Oliva the time to do that was months if not years ago. Furthermore, him mentioning these cards will immediately spike those prices so if you buy them now not only were you already likely too late but by the time you acquire them as an "investor" they've also been bumped up again due to his video.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Also the issue with Geoff is that he presents cards AFTER they have been running up (Example: '55 Clemente) and so to buy in on that card and many of the others like Oliva the time to do that was months if not years ago. Furthermore, him mentioning these cards will immediately spike those prices so if you buy them now not only were you already likely too late but by the time you acquire them as an "investor" they've also been bumped up again due to his video.

Since the video aired there were 9 1955 Clemente's that were sold. Many were auctions. Quite the coincidence that 7 auctions ended right around when that video was aired. Before that the last Clemente sold was January 18th.

Edit: This is just a strange coincidence; I don't see anything too unusual with the sellers. This is the issue I have with SCI investor though; it is market manipulation with the followers he has. It just takes a few rotten apples on his team to know the content that is coming out and selling those cards with that knowledge.

[coupie21]

From what I have seen, vintage prices (especially HOF vintage) have gone up considerably since covid basically shut the US down in mid 2020, not just recently. The online pumpers and manipulators only serve to fuel the fire (and I'm sure have much to gain from doing so). PSA 4 '53 Topps Willie Mays cards (for example) were selling in the $900-$1100 range in mid 2019. They are now selling in the $4000 range (ebay) and peaked above $7000 during covid's peak period. Across the board regardless of year, HOFer cards have risen substantially and it does not look like prices will be going down anytime soon, if ever. It is irritating, from a collectors stand point...I will never be able to afford many of the cards I once could afford, but never got around to purchasing.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by coupie21

From what I have seen, vintage prices (especially HOF vintage) have gone up considerably since covid basically shut the US down in mid 2020, not just recently. The online pumpers and manipulators only serve to fuel the fire (and I'm sure have much to gain from doing so). PSA 4 '53 Topps Willie Mays cards (for example) were selling in the $900-$1100 range in mid 2019. They are now selling in the $4000 range (ebay) and peaked above $7000 during covid's peak period. Across the board regardless of year, HOFer cards have risen substantially and it does not look like prices will be going down anytime soon, if ever. It is irritating, from a collectors stand point...I will never be able to afford many of the cards I once could afford, but never got around to purchasing.

I think that is why I am so irritated as well! I always wanted a 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth and a T206 Walter Johnson/Cobb/Young. Those days are basically gone. It also doesn't take much to disrupt the market. Most vintage cards have very low supply. Adding just 100 people into this sector of the hobby can cause major surges. Add a few thousand and the market will completely change. I don't think vintage will go down for many years, if ever. There are enough people from the junk wax era that are back for good and fell back in love with the hobby.

[pete2345]

Originally Posted by coupie21

From what I have seen, vintage prices (especially HOF vintage) have gone up considerably since covid basically shut the US down in mid 2020, not just recently. The online pumpers and manipulators only serve to fuel the fire (and I'm sure have much to gain from doing so). PSA 4 '53 Topps Willie Mays cards (for example) were selling in the $900-$1100 range in mid 2019. They are now selling in the $4000 range (ebay) and peaked above $7000 during covid's peak period. Across the board regardless of year, HOFer cards have risen substantially and it does not look like prices will be going down anytime soon, if ever. It is irritating, from a collectors stand point...I will never be able to afford many of the cards I once could afford, but never got around to purchasing.

This for sure the Vintage run up has been at least a couple years now.

[MantleMarisFord]

Originally Posted by coupie21

I will never be able to afford many of the cards I once could afford, but never got around to purchasing.

Man I feel this in my soul.

Oh well, glad I got what I got when I got it. Now I’m left trying to find my cardboard gold at yard sales & second hand shops.

[SpartanWarrior]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I think that is why I am so irritated as well! I always wanted a 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth and a T206 Walter Johnson/Cobb/Young. Those days are basically gone. It also doesn't take much to disrupt the market. Most vintage cards have very low supply. Adding just 100 people into this sector of the hobby can cause major surges. Add a few thousand and the market will completely change. I don't think vintage will go down for many years, if ever. There are enough people from the junk wax era that are back for good and fell back in love with the hobby.

---------------------

If it makes you feel any better, I was a very active collector in the 1980's into the 90's and lived through the previous "boom". Cards like Clemente rookies went from $75 to $800 in the course of 3 years. 56 Mantles from $20 to $400.

But if you look more closely at that time period you'll also notice that some 19th century cards often sell at similar as they did in the early 90's. So not all vintage has "exploded". Same is true for some other cards. I remember when some Tango Eggs cards were "found". Prices were insane. Today you can get a type card for 500-700 from the few sales I've seen. That is less than they sold for 30 years ago.

Now Ruth is gone. Its just the law of supply/demand. I remember when his 33 Goudey broke $1000. Everyone thought it was crazy. And it was! Crazy cheap

T206's have obtained "iconic" status within the hobby and they sell for several times what cards cost in the early 90's. But look at the T207 set and those cards are likely selling for the same plus inflation.

Especially at shows, you can find some very good deals on 1920's-30's commons/minor HOFers. Few people collect those sets and regardless of what any "comp" or price guide says they are tough cards for dealers to move.

I took a look at the REA auction results from Sunday. There were quite a bit of what I'd call "reasonable" ending prices. There were also some very strong prices. So its not like everything is just going straight up - rather I see specific parts of vintage. Ruth, Cobb, T206 Portraits, T206 Rare backs, High grade material going straight up but I don't see a rush on the broader vintage market.

Some of the best material in my collection was purchased in 1994-95 as the collapse was happening. Doesn't mean it won't be different this time around but it might also be a case of "wait until you see the white in their eyes" and then start buying!!!

[hammertime]

Episode 4 of the Monster podcast (about how to build a T206 collection) came out in Jan 2019. I remember listening to it in 2020 and thinking "wow these prices are already outdated". Now 3 years later, even after the boom is supposedly over, go back and listen to it... it's insane. Prices have absolutely skyrocketed since then.

[Above the Rim]

Oh, but wait ... vintage has and will go down.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

Oh, but wait ... vintage has and will go down.

We need a K13 youtube channel. I would use it to get all my collecting advice!

[Gary]

Check the SMR on 70's basketball,Even Fleer 80's stuff.Starting to get crazy.Ive been grabbing raw stuff and even that is going up.Seems im not the only one going after raw.

[mfw13]

When things get dicey in any market, there is a "flight to quality".

With regards to sports cards, that means that absent macroeconomic factors, you're always doing to do fine buying cards of stars/superstars with strong visual appeal.

Flip side is that the market for vintage commons is wholly supported by set-builders....if fewer people are building vintage sets (which may become the case as the price of the stars becomes cost-prohibitive), there's not going to be less demand for commons.

That's why I always tell people who are thinking about building a set to buy the stars first....because they're much easier to get rid of if you change your mind.

[VanLingoMungo46]

Market has seemed fairly stable in the past few months from my view. Higher profile cards appreciated much more in the past two years. Is that a trend that is likely to continue? Probably. I don't see why not. I have a T206 John McGraw that I thought was undervalued when I got it two years ago and it hasn't appreciated much since then. Then again, it's worth pointing out that at least some high-profile vintage took a pretty big step back since Feb 2021, particularly Jackie cards and to a lesser extent Mays cards, although I see the latter ticking up slightly again.

Discodan, I don't quite understand your distinction between investing and flipping. Flipping is essentially short-term investing. It has been an easy game for a while now thanks to continued market inefficiency, which is the friend of any buyer/investor who does their homework. It gets a little more challenging in a flat or down market though, but still very manageable thanks to market inefficiency.

Star cards are certainly more liquid and easier to move. I have been trying to sell a slabbed mid-grade '53 Bowman Alvin Dark for a while now and I can't give it away. Same with a Brooks RC I have that is very nice but also o/c. The market of non-elite collectors has clearly gravitated toward centered lower-grade cards that have wrinkles and away from off-center cards with higher grades. Not much doubt about that. Definitely more tolerance out there for creases that are hard to see if it means you get great color and centering for cheap. Note this isn't every collector, just the overall trend. The other thing as someone noted is that it's fun to have a cool raw collection and I have been moving in that direction as well.

[grizjunkie23]

Perhaps I'm in the minority, but I like that vintage has been getting more attention. People chasing a quick buck will always flock to new market trends, and abandon them just as quickly, but enough new blood sticks to keep the interest going.

My introduction to card collecting in the 90's was going through my dad's shoebox of 70's cards. I learned about players who retired before I was born by reading card backs and Beckett magazine. Like most, I started my own collection chasing active stars and rookies. As I got older, I realized how truly difficult and rare it was for these players to reach the success of their predecessors, and began pursuing the vintage cards I grew up admiring.

Players like Babe Ruth and Jackie Robinson are still household names, and left such an impact on popular culture that their cards will always be in demand as Americana. However, sports are full of legends with comparable success who simply don't have the same name recognition. Honus Wagner is an all time great, but who here doesn't immediately think of the T206 when they hear his name? What about players like Frank Robinson and Joe Morgan, who defined their positions for a generation, but retired well before people began pursuing cardboard as an asset class?

I just watched the Sports Card Investor video, as well as a few others in his catalogue. The hyperbole was a little much ("EXPLODING IN VALUE!" - yikes), but it was nice to see some discussion of players beyond the usual suspects. His standard format is a little clumsy and less suited to vintage than higher volume modern cards. There's simply too many additional factors with vintage (price interplay among similar grades based on eye appeal, etc.), combined with the relative lack of sales data compared to modern, for it to be a clean one-to-one fit. Regardless, he seems earnest about learning more about this aspect of the hobby, and it will be interesting to see if it becomes a focus of the channel. Personally, I prefer the dorky, dulcet tones of Chris Sewell (Sports Card Collector Investor Dealer) when it comes to this stuff, but it all makes for pleasant background noise.

Not going to lie, seeing that Carlton '65 also reminded me to finally chase down a nice Morgan rookie.

[Above the Rim]

I remember Joe Morgan being a true driving force of the Big Red Machine. He could do it all, steal a base, hit a home run, make a great defensive play, get a base hit to drive in a run. Amazing he is not more fondly remembered.

In the batters box he would swing his back elbow up and down profusely while waiting for the pitch. In the school yard, we would emulate this action, thinking it was so cool.

[Chiefnocahoma]

Originally Posted by mfw13

When things get dicey in any market, there is a "flight to quality".

With regards to sports cards, that means that absent macroeconomic factors, you're always doing to do fine buying cards of stars/superstars with strong visual appeal.

Flip side is that the market for vintage commons is wholly supported by set-builders....if fewer people are building vintage sets (which may become the case as the price of the stars becomes cost-prohibitive), there's not going to be less demand for commons.

That's why I always tell people who are thinking about building a set to buy the stars first....because they're much easier to get rid of if you change your mind.

Always buy the stars first!!!! Prices for significant cards have tripled in 10 years since I ve been doing a couple vintage sets.

[Neal]

Originally Posted by k13

Vintage has and will go down.

Sheep going from one thing to another.

Examples?

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Neal

Examples?

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

He will cherry pick a few examples and prove us all wrong. He could also look at the boom in 2021 where everything went up and then decreased. K13 knows everything about the hobby, we should all listen to his wisdom.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by Neal

Examples?

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

He won't give more than one or two if any. Usually he pokes his head into threads, posts a baseless comment basically against everyone in the thread, and stands with his tail between his legs when questioned about his comment.

Does this in every thread. I used to think he was trolling, but now I truly just think it is his personality to need negative attention on BO. It is sad really.