Potential Lebron James Topps Chrome Rc value

[k13]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

I don’t see the value of Lebrons rookies holding in fact I see the big ticket items taking a downturn also. When you’re not the best there won’t be the desire to collect you as much as the guy(Jordan) who was/is the GOAT. Lebron benefits because he’s still playing he won’t age as well as MJ has because of the aforementioned points. I say sell as soon as he hits the all-time points record it’s only going down from there.

How is Jordan even a GOAT?
Does not have the most rings.
Does not have the most points.
Does not have the most anything in the big picture.

Jordan rookies aren't going anywhere either.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by k13

How is Jordan even a GOAT?
Does not have the most rings.
Does not have the most points.
Does not have the most anything in the big picture.

Jordan rookies aren't going anywhere either.

I can’t believe you haven’t been banned yet. Your only purpose on the boards is to come up with the most insane #@#@#@#@ you can think of that will agitate others. You are an absolute waste of space here.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Miner30

I really appreciate all of the responses and discussion. A couple more questions (and I think I know the answer) but what about going after a BGS 9.5 right now? They are selling right around $4k. Does anyone know what they were selling for at the peak in early 2021?

The peak was $19.5K but it was one sale. Only 2 sales above $15K for a pop of 3285. That kind of volume doesn't mean anything. For the record the PSA 10 peak is similar. Small volume at that price relative to the price.

The average 2 year price for BGS 9.5 is $8K. That's 511 total sales, or 15% of the pop.

You face the same set of circumstances with BGS 9.5s as you do PSA, except it's honestly worse. Variables in sub grades producing different prices, BGS slipping relevancy in the hobby.

You just make an uphill battle for this card even steeper.

If you're interested in this card, quit trying to time a bottom or get out at peak. Give that dream up. You will never do it. Just get in when you want to and enjoy the card.

[bpc3qh]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

I don’t see the value of Lebrons rookies holding in fact I see the big ticket items taking a downturn also. When you’re not the best there won’t be the desire to collect you as much as the guy(Jordan) who was/is the GOAT. Lebron benefits because he’s still playing he won’t age as well as MJ has because of the aforementioned points. I say sell as soon as he hits the all-time points record it’s only going down from there.

I think that's probably an overstatement. No matter what happens he's a top 10, top 5 all-time great, so his value will stay consistent a la Magic, Bird, etc. Maybe he won't reach Michael's value but that shouldn't be the only metric.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by k13

How is Jordan even a GOAT?
Does not have the most rings.
Does not have the most points.
Does not have the most anything in the big picture.

Most times leading the league in scoring
Most career PPG
Most career PPG in playoffs
Most PPG in NBA Finals series
Most spectator/fan/collector impact per game/minutes played

See also the Jordan video/highlight reel in the GOAT series in my .sig compared to the videos of the other 7 spectacular players. He's almost like the sport's Superman.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

The peak was $19.5K but it was one sale. Only 2 sales above $15K for a pop of 3285. That kind of volume doesn't mean anything. For the record the PSA 10 peak is similar. Small volume at that price relative to the price.

The average 2 year price for BGS 9.5 is $8K. That's 511 total sales, or 15% of the pop.

You face the same set of circumstances with BGS 9.5s as you do PSA, except it's honestly worse. Variables in sub grades producing different prices, BGS slipping relevancy in the hobby.

You just make an uphill battle for this card even steeper.

If you're interested in this card, quit trying to time a bottom or get out at peak. Give that dream up. You will never do it. Just get in when you want to and enjoy the card.

Other than not buying after a speculative run-up to 5-10x price over a short period of time (see: early 2021), I don't know how one should expect to reliably beat the market.

When will MJ #57 PSA 10s hit $1M? Can't say, but however long it takes for something to quadruple given an 8% or so average annual appreciation (assuming luxury purchases track stock market wealth) would be the statistically-averaged forecast. So about 18 years from now?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Other than not buying after a speculative run-up to 5-10x price over a short period of time (see: early 2021), I don't know how one should expect to reliably beat the market.

When will MJ #57 PSA 10s hit $1M? Can't say, but however long it takes for something to quadruple given an 8% or so average annual appreciation (assuming luxury purchases track stock market wealth) would be the statistically-averaged forecast. So about 18 years from now?

Cards aren't stocks, and the Lebron Chrome isn't a bucket list card for hardcore card collectors the way the MJ RC is.

The reality is the Lebron Chrome has spent a tiny fraction of it's time since release as a "chase" card, but it was only chased by speculators/bass head flippers who can't keep that goose afloat.

[GOATcards]

I'd make a fun little bet of $23 that MJ #57 PSA 10s will be $1M in 18 years (Jan 1, 2040).

(Note that price appreciations of a lot of things, i.e., economic growth, could very well be very positively impacted by the results of a 'Better Living Through Philosophy' (i.e., systematically improving cognitive performance) juggernaut should that come to pass. )

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Cards aren't stocks, and the Lebron Chrome isn't a bucket list card for hardcore card collectors the way the MJ RC is.

The reality is the Lebron Chrome has spent a tiny fraction of it's time since release as a "chase" card, but it was only chased by speculators/bass head flippers who can't keep that goose afloat.

I didn't say they are stocks, I said, quote, "assuming luxury purchases track stock market wealth" unquote. The data might back me up on this....

edit: I must qualify the "tracking" point with "long-term." The '20-21 sports card run-up hardly tracked what the stock market was doing during that short time-frame.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

I didn't say they are stocks, I said, quote, "assuming luxury purchases track stock market wealth" unquote. The data might back me up on this....

edit: I must qualify the "tracking" point with "long-term." The '20-21 sports card run-up hardly tracked what the stock market was doing during that short time-frame.

True. I was just referencing the 8% annual growth.

Lebron Chrome continual growth? I can't really see the case.
MJ Fleer? Ok I can get on board with that.

Just different types of cards that people want to correlate (not you) when they're not corollary in the slightest...

I'd say the Lebron Chrome still has downside losses of 90% in it's future from this point. The MJ Fleer doesn't have that type of downside.

[k13]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Cards aren't stocks, and the Lebron Chrome isn't a bucket list card for hardcore card collectors the way the MJ RC is.

The reality is the Lebron Chrome has spent a tiny fraction of it's time since release as a "chase" card, but it was only chased by speculators/bass head flippers who can't keep that goose afloat.

I always thought SPA/Ultimate/Exquisite were the chase cards to me.
Everything else was junk

Never thought basketball people would turn into hockey base junk pumpers.
Chrome refractor is still base to me.

[KhalDrogo]

The biggest thing going against LeBron’s Topps Chrome is who is pictured on the card. LeBron is way too polarizing off the court. I think it’s quite likely that retirement hits his market hard, even if he doesn’t have any more licensed NBA cards. Personally, I’m getting out next fall in anticipation of hype around him getting the scoring record. I don’t like the guy and have realized that I never will. And I’ve decided that I’m done buying cards of players I don’t really enjoy. MJ, Kobe, Luka, LaMelo, and my UVa guys are enough for me in basketball.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

True. I was just referencing the 8% annual growth.

Lebron Chrome continual growth? I can't really see the case.
MJ Fleer? Ok I can get on board with that.

Just different types of cards that people want to correlate (not you) when they're not corollary in the slightest...

I'd say the Lebron Chrome still has downside losses of 90% in it's future from this point. The MJ Fleer doesn't have that type of downside.

I think it depends on whether the Chrome remains the "blue chip" Bron card that many can obtain (so not the #'d UD signature cards like Exquisite/Ultimate) and want to. Myself, I don't understand how the Chrome is more sought-after than the Finest and of course I'm partial to the Topps Pristine mini. Seems like with the Chrome the market is going more for the brand name/line than the aesthetics/image of the Bron card in particular. To me it's not much different than the image on the Star #101 MJ (as opposed to the more iconic-looking #117 the following year).

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

I think it depends on whether the Chrome remains the "blue chip" Bron card that many can obtain (so not the #'d UD signature cards like Exquisite/Ultimate) and want to. Myself, I don't understand how the Chrome is more sought-after than the Finest and of course I'm partial to the Topps Pristine mini. Seems like with the Chrome the market is going more for the brand name/line than the aesthetics/image of the Bron card in particular. To me it's not much different than the image on the Star #101 MJ (as opposed to the more iconic-looking #117 the following year).

It’s definitely one of the most interesting cards in the hobby. I can even somewhat get the appeal.

If the Lebron settled at $1K for a PSA 10 I’d still think that’s an enourmous endeavor for a common base card. K13 may say “that’s what the YG of the guy on the 3rd line of the Wild sells for” but for a basketball bass card $1K would be HUGE!

The problem is if it fell to that level (and I think it will) then a ton of people will have lit MILLIONS of dollars on fire.

[bpc3qh]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

I think it depends on whether the Chrome remains the "blue chip" Bron card that many can obtain (so not the #'d UD signature cards like Exquisite/Ultimate) and want to. Myself, I don't understand how the Chrome is more sought-after than the Finest and of course I'm partial to the Topps Pristine mini. Seems like with the Chrome the market is going more for the brand name/line than the aesthetics/image of the Bron card in particular. To me it's not much different than the image on the Star #101 MJ (as opposed to the more iconic-looking #117 the following year).

I like the 2003 TC LeBron, personally. The turnaround jumper looks really good in my opinion.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

I like the 2003 TC LeBron, personally. The turnaround jumper looks really good in my opinion.

As action shots go it's good, but for card aesthetics I prefer a more close-up and/or recognizable shot of the player's face. (Your preferences may differ. Also, on quite a few Bron RCs I don't recognize his face, e.g., the otherwise just dandy base Fleer.) So when it comes to Bron shooting his turnaround/fadeaway I like this card.

[k13]

People act all smart now about not buying base instead of nicer more rare cards yet they pay the same price for a base refractor /999 compared to a higher end auto rc /250

Comedy.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

I think it depends on whether the Chrome remains the "blue chip" Bron card that many can obtain (so not the #'d UD signature cards like Exquisite/Ultimate) and want to. Myself, I don't understand how the Chrome is more sought-after than the Finest and of course I'm partial to the Topps Pristine mini. Seems like with the Chrome the market is going more for the brand name/line than the aesthetics/image of the Bron card in particular. To me it's not much different than the image on the Star #101 MJ (as opposed to the more iconic-looking #117 the following year).

The White Suit Finest? Looks cheesy, just like the regular Topps base.

Never mind, that one was the redemption. The base 03-04 is not that good looking either.

[Miner30]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

The peak was $19.5K but it was one sale. Only 2 sales above $15K for a pop of 3285. That kind of volume doesn't mean anything. For the record the PSA 10 peak is similar. Small volume at that price relative to the price.

The average 2 year price for BGS 9.5 is $8K. That's 511 total sales, or 15% of the pop.

You face the same set of circumstances with BGS 9.5s as you do PSA, except it's honestly worse. Variables in sub grades producing different prices, BGS slipping relevancy in the hobby.

You just make an uphill battle for this card even steeper.

If you're interested in this card, quit trying to time a bottom or get out at peak. Give that dream up. You will never do it. Just get in when you want to and enjoy the card.

Thanks for the advice and data. I am looking at this as a long term investment to add to my collection, so I’ll probably track it a while longer. I almost pulled the trigger on a PSA 9 a few months ago and I’m glad I’ve waited. I know at some point soon I’ll need to buy.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

If you're interested in this card, quit trying to time a bottom or get out at peak. Give that dream up. You will never do it. Just get in when you want to and enjoy the card.

Palabra up.

No bullish divergences or bollinger bands in this here bass game.

Buy at a price you're comfortable with or dca if buying multiples...then crack a brew and enjoy the ensuing chaos.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The biggest thing going against LeBron’s Topps Chrome is who is pictured on the card. LeBron is way too polarizing off the court. I think it’s quite likely that retirement hits his market hard, even if he doesn’t have any more licensed NBA cards. Personally, I’m getting out next fall in anticipation of hype around him getting the scoring record. I don’t like the guy and have realized that I never will. And I’ve decided that I’m done buying cards of players I don’t really enjoy. MJ, Kobe, Luka, LaMelo, and my UVa guys are enough for me in basketball.

Precisely this.

And a second to the poster who made the good point that this was never a chase card up until the recent run and they flippers can't keep the goose afloat.

I'll contribute by also saying, the card image is just really really bad. That seems to be a "thing" in 2021 (or 2022).

[ChefCurry312]

Originally Posted by Miner30

Sorry to bump an old thread. I am in the market for a 2003 PSA 9 or 10 Topps Chrome as a long term investment (think 20 years or if they skyrocket again at some point). I'm probably going to get serious about picking one or a few of these up at some point in 2022.

The PSA 10's have been bottoming out since a huge peak ($46k) in Feb. 2021. They are currently going for around $12k. If they drop to around $5k-$7k in 2022 I will definitely pull the trigger.

The PSA 9's are currently looking like a good play too. They peaked to around $12k in Feb. and are currently going for around $2,800. I am thinking if they drop to around $1k, I'll pick up one or two.

My question to every one is what do you think the future value of these cards is at the low end and high end. I've been reading a lot about how the PSA 10's could touch close to $100k in a best case scenario 10-20yrs from now if he breaks the scoring record and has a Jordan-type documentary come out. If I buy a PSA for $7k, do you think its a safe bet that I will at least double that long-term? I keep reading "buy the GOATs" and "this card is a safe of a bet as any". Just wanted some reassurance or other opinions before dropping almost $10k. Thanks!

If you're willing to hold 15-20 years, I think a PSA 10 is a solid investment. There’s been some reasonable counter-arguments but here’s my reasoning.

Iconic LeBron Card:
While this isn’t the 2003 Exquisite RPA, it would be strange for any serious LeBron RC collector to not have this card in their collection. Although there are many options available for LeBron RCs, the hobby has established the 2003 Topps Chrome as THE standard LeBron rookie card. Overall, it’s an iconic card to many and often seen as a highlight in people’s collection.

Low Pop (Comparatively):
The current PSA 10 population for the 2003 TC LeBron is 2,158. While this may seem high in comparison to the Fleer Jordan (PSA 10 = 321), I think the pop is low compared to modern wax (see below).

2018 Prizm #280 Luka Doncic SILVER PSA 10 Pop: 2,099
2018 Prizm #280 Luka Doncic Base PSA 10 Pop: 18,144
2019 Prizm #248 Zion Williamson SILVER PSA 10 Pop: 1,396
2019 Prizm #248 Zion Williamson Base PSA 10 Pop: 20,342

Note: Luka/Zion are very talented & have potential for amazing careers; however, they haven’t actually accomplished it yet like LeBron has.

New Generation/International Market:
For the generation who never got to see Jordan play, LeBron is the best player in their lifetime. Michael Jordan is seen as some “near-mythical” player of the past, meanwhile LeBron’s greatness is something they’ve witnessed themselves. Some people aren’t even a fan of any specific team, they’re just LeBron fans. LeBron has also reached a lot of people because he’s had such a long career and been in relatively good health.

Note: I realize people can watch old games/highlights of Jordan on YouTube but I don’t think that really conveys the impact, dominance, and greatness that Jordan had during that time period.

International Market Growth:
The NBA is popular internationally and continues to grow. LeBron is very popular internationally and a lot of these new fans have never witnessed Jordan play.

Final Thoughts:
LeBron will probably never be seen as the GOAT but he doesn’t need to be. He doesn’t need to win another championship/break any more records. If he retired tomorrow, my thoughts would still be the same. He’s had a hugely successful career and been the best player of his generation.

Price Estimate in 15-20 years:
Overall, I just see them as currently undervalued. My guess is somewhere in the range of $50,000 to $70,000+ for a PSA 10.

Disclaimer: I’m an owner of a PSA 10 Topps Chrome LeBron RC. Got one when they were going for about $2,000 and still own the same one.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by ChefCurry312

If you're willing to hold 15-20 years, I think a PSA 10 is a solid investment. There’s been some reasonable counter-arguments but here’s my reasoning.

Iconic LeBron Card:
While this isn’t the 2003 Exquisite RPA, it would be strange for any serious LeBron RC collector to not have this card in their collection. Although there are many options available for LeBron RCs, the hobby has established the 2003 Topps Chrome as THE standard LeBron rookie card. Overall, it’s an iconic card to many and often seen as a highlight in people’s collection.

Low Pop (Comparatively):
The current PSA 10 population for the 2003 TC LeBron is 2,158. While this may seem high in comparison to the Fleer Jordan (PSA 10 = 321), I think the pop is low compared to modern wax (see below).

2018 Prizm #280 Luka Doncic SILVER PSA 10 Pop: 2,099
2018 Prizm #280 Luka Doncic Base PSA 10 Pop: 18,144
2019 Prizm #248 Zion Williamson SILVER PSA 10 Pop: 1,396
2019 Prizm #248 Zion Williamson Base PSA 10 Pop: 20,342

Note: Luka/Zion are very talented & have potential for amazing careers; however, they haven’t actually accomplished it yet like LeBron has.

New Generation/International Market:
For the generation who never got to see Jordan play, LeBron is the best player in their lifetime. Michael Jordan is seen as some “near-mythical” player of the past, meanwhile LeBron’s greatness is something they’ve witnessed themselves. Some people aren’t even a fan of any specific team, they’re just LeBron fans. LeBron has also reached a lot of people because he’s had such a long career and been in relatively good health.

Note: I realize people can watch old games/highlights of Jordan on YouTube but I don’t think that really conveys the impact, dominance, and greatness that Jordan had during that time period.

International Market Growth:
The NBA is popular internationally and continues to grow. LeBron is very popular internationally and a lot of these new fans have never witnessed Jordan play.

Final Thoughts:
LeBron will probably never be seen as the GOAT but he doesn’t need to be. He doesn’t need to win another championship/break any more records. If he retired tomorrow, my thoughts would still be the same. He’s had a hugely successful career and been the best player of his generation.

Price Estimate in 15-20 years:
Overall, I just see them as currently undervalued. My guess is somewhere in the range of $50,000 to $70,000+ for a PSA 10.

Disclaimer: I’m an owner of a PSA 10 Topps Chrome LeBron RC. Got one when they were going for about $2,000 and still own the same one.

The problem with this is it’s just a myopic card approach.

That’s not to talk down on you, and honestly I like the way you succinctly made your case.

What you’re missing and you may not know unless you were completely immersed in the hobby for the past decade or two is Lebron collectors already have this card. Most sold to the new hobby entrants who hyped it.

You ask any serious Lebron collector (the ones who will shell out 5-6 figures for a card even if it means their card collection becomes 95% of their net worth) and they’ll tell you they don’t want it at its current price.

You have no long term holder at 5 figures for a bass card. They don’t exist.

You have speculators in that arena, but they can’t pass these things off enough to enough new speculators to set long term floors. In the end all those bass sold above 5 figures will either be held to the grave or sold at losses.

You’d be hard pressed to find any long term hobby head who still has this stuff after the past year. Everybody I know who had one sold and upgraded to Lebron Refractors or color if they stayed with Chrome.

It did what it was built to do over the past couple years. Help drive the market up, generate interest, and siphon money from people to allow long term holders to level up.

It’s possible new entrants come in to hold those bags sometime in the future, but it’s going to be tough to run the same game that was so obvious flawed for those with knowledge, which people now have after being in the hobby for over a year.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ChefCurry312

Price Estimate in 15-20 years:
Overall, I just see them as currently undervalued. My guess is somewhere in the range of $50,000 to $70,000+ for a PSA 10.

Where do you have a PSA 10 refractor in 15 years?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Most times leading the league in scoring
Most career PPG
Most career PPG in playoffs
Most PPG in NBA Finals series
Most spectator/fan/collector impact per game/minutes played

See also the Jordan video/highlight reel in the GOAT series in my .sig compared to the videos of the other 7 spectacular players. He's almost like the sport's Superman.

Wilt Chamberlain holds 72 NBA records. 72>>>>> 4.