First Buzz: 2020-21 Panini Mosaic basketball cards

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

1 at floor

You guys are acting a fool as usual

Market is sleepwalking, but Optic Hobby is selling at $650

Last year's Optic hobby sells for 1k, Mosaic hobby sells at $800. Meaning for regular hobby Optic has a 20% premium over Mosaic.

These are FOTL and sold at at $718.50 meaning they sold at only a 10% premium over this years optic hobby, plus they have the exclusives.

Add in the fact that assuming these ship on time people who bought should have them before retail hits shelves and potentially before hobby is out and can be first to the market with singles.

This was probably a better buy than anything other than classics in recent memory

By your logic, these sold out at the exact secondary market resale value. That equals a great buy?

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

1 at floor

You guys are acting a fool as usual

Market is sleepwalking, but Optic Hobby is selling at $650

Last year's Optic hobby sells for 1k, Mosaic hobby sells at $800. Meaning for regular hobby Optic has a 20% premium over Mosaic.

These are FOTL and sold at at $718.50 meaning they sold at only a 10% premium over this years optic hobby, plus they have the exclusives.

Add in the fact that assuming these ship on time people who bought should have them before retail hits shelves and potentially before hobby is out and can be first to the market with singles.

This was probably a better buy than anything other than classics in recent memory

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

1 at floor

You guys are acting a fool as usual

Market is sleepwalking, but Optic Hobby is selling at $650

Last year's Optic hobby sells for 1k, Mosaic hobby sells at $800. Meaning for regular hobby Optic has a 20% premium over Mosaic.

These are FOTL and sold at at $718.50 meaning they sold at only a 10% premium over this years optic hobby, plus they have the exclusives.

Add in the fact that assuming these ship on time people who bought should have them before retail hits shelves and potentially before hobby is out and can be first to the market with singles.

This was probably a better buy than anything other than classics in recent memory

I was also using Optic as my reference point to see if I got some. There are a couple of things to consider though:

- I think we haven't hit the floor for Optic yet
- Stained Glass don't look as good as last year

I was in at low 600s plus tax. I don't think it's crazy for breakers to get these at those prices, think they'll sell.

[bigjbasketball]

If anyone hasn’t listened to Josh Luber’s interview from last week on the Sports Cards Nonsense pod, definitely check that out. He said he hated Panini’s Dutch auction, and honestly it should not be difficult to improve on this broken (actually crooked and price-fixing) model.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by bigjbasketball

If anyone hasn’t listened to Josh Luber’s interview from last week on the Sports Cards Nonsense pod, definitely check that out. He said he hated Panini’s Dutch auction, and honestly it should not be difficult to improve on this broken (actually crooked and price-fixing) model.

From late 2019 until near August 2021 it was the most fair system. After Select Basketball FOTL and NT Basketball FOTL went for peanuts it sure changed.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

By your logic, these sold out at the exact secondary market resale value. That equals a great buy?

No, by my logic these sold out at 10% LOWER than secondary market resale value for hobby.

At the floor these were at worst a decent buy. Depending on when these will be in hand and if FOTL buyers get the opportunity to be first to market with singles? Yes, in this market they will be a great buy

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

1 at floor

You guys are acting a fool as usual

Market is sleepwalking, but Optic Hobby is selling at $650

Last year's Optic hobby sells for 1k, Mosaic hobby sells at $800. Meaning for regular hobby Optic has a 20% premium over Mosaic.

These are FOTL and sold at at $718.50 meaning they sold at only a 10% premium over this years optic hobby, plus they have the exclusives.

Add in the fact that assuming these ship on time people who bought should have them before retail hits shelves and potentially before hobby is out and can be first to the market with singles.

This was probably a better buy than anything other than classics in recent memory

Is this satire? This isnt the Summer of 2020 anymore.

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by bigjbasketball

If anyone hasn’t listened to Josh Luber’s interview from last week on the Sports Cards Nonsense pod, definitely check that out. He said he hated Panini’s Dutch auction, and honestly it should not be difficult to improve on this broken (actually crooked and price-fixing) model.

I peeped it. I’m in the minority of folks that is excited to see what Fanatics does with everything

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Is this satire? This isnt the Summer of 2020 anymore.

Sadly for him, I’m sure he honestly believes that. People still buying this stuff at these prices are insane. So many better uses of $700 in the hobby.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I was also using Optic as my reference point to see if I got some. There are a couple of things to consider though:

- I think we haven't hit the floor for Optic yet
- Stained Glass don't look as good as last year

I was in at low 600s plus tax. I don't think it's crazy for breakers to get these at those prices, think they'll sell.

Yea, I agree with both of your points. Not sure Mosaic FOTL will be a good long term hold, but seeing as this should be in collectors hands in the next 2 weeks I don't see Optic falling too much from where it is now in that short time frame.

I honestly thought where it sold at was a pretty fair price (in this market)

$600 or so would have been a slam dunk buy IMO assuming you're planning to open and be first to market with singles. Hobby will likely crater to 400-500 once retail is released and the market is flooded with singles.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

No, by my logic these sold out at 10% LOWER than secondary market resale value for hobby.

At the floor these were at worst a decent buy. Depending on when these will be in hand and if FOTL buyers get the opportunity to be first to market with singles? Yes, in this market they will be a great buy

So you don't have to pay tax when you buy and fees when you sell? Must be nice.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Yea, I agree with both of your points. Not sure Mosaic FOTL will be a good long term hold, but seeing as this should be in collectors hands in the next 2 weeks I don't see Optic falling too much from where it is now in that short time frame.

I honestly thought where it sold at was a pretty fair price (in this market)

$600 or so would have been a slam dunk buy IMO assuming you're planning to open and be first to market with singles. Hobby will likely crater to 400-500 once retail is released and the market is flooded with singles.

Hobby will crater to 400-500 but FOTL, with tax, every single box sold for over $750 and is a great buy! Brilliant!

[bustsomewax]

Give me a case of blasters at $40 a pop over 1 FOTL box.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Is this satire? This isnt the Summer of 2020 anymore.

Let's play a game for shits & giggles..

Let's say I enjoy opening hobby products like I did until 2019 before this market went ballistic. Lets say that before 2019 even the thought of opening retail made me want to vomit, but like most I had to switch that thinking if I wanted to open up anything the last couple of years.

Lets now assume that I don't enjoy getting my balls beat in when I open a box and and would like to recoup at least some of my box cost, ideally

Now let's say i can get a hobby box before retail comes out and potentially before hobby as well and can then be one of the first to market with singles. When cards like a Lamelo base RC will likely sell for $50+ and random inserts/color of semi decent players will likely sell for $20+, meaning it will probably be pretty easy to recoup roughly half the cost for my box, selling cards I have no interest in or could just rebuy at 20% of what I sell them for later on.

I don't know about the rest of the great braintrust of blowout, but to me, I will take that scenario all day with a smile on my face

[bigjbasketball]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

From late 2019 until near August 2021 it was the most fair system. After Select Basketball FOTL and NT Basketball FOTL went for peanuts it sure changed.

And as good as it was then, it could have been even better if they ran it the way StockX ran theirs, where everyone who bid above the sellout price on a product got to purchase it at the lowest bid, as opposed to Panini forcing people to pay the exact price of their bid, even if the final sellout price was much lower. Obviously one way is better for the company and one way is better for the consumer. Let’s hope Fanatics uses the StockX model, which it sounds like that’s their plan, especially being that Luber is the one who ran those StockX Dutch auctions.

Originally Posted by PSA2Pac

I peeped it. I’m in the minority of folks that is excited to see what Fanatics does with everything

I’m cautiously optimistic. The entire hobby landscape might look different by the time they take over, but I think it’s time for a change from Panini.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Hobby will crater to 400-500 but FOTL, with tax, every single box sold for over $750 and is a great buy! Brilliant!

Dude, you've literally never been right in anything we've argued before. Before I dunk on you again, just look at my post history with you. Try to remember when I told you that you were a complete dope for not wanting to buy 19/20 hoops premium sets when they were released and stop.

Don't waste your time on here when you could be maxing out another credit card and putting up more Facebook posts trying to recoup your money that no one replies to

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by bigjbasketball

I’m cautiously optimistic. The entire hobby landscape might look different by the time they take over, but I think it’s time for a change from Panini.

Cautiously optimistic is a much better way to put it, but yes - it’s definitely time for a change from Panini (more than anything)

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Let's play a game for shits & giggles..



Let's say I enjoy opening hobby products like I did until 2019 before this market went ballistic. Lets say that before 2019 even the thought of opening retail made me want to vomit, but like most I had to switch that thinking if I wanted to open up anything the last couple of years.



Lets now assume that I don't enjoy getting my balls beat in when I open a box and and would like to recoup at least some of my box cost, ideally



Now let's say i can get a hobby box before retail comes out and potentially before hobby as well and can then be one of the first to market with singles. When cards like a Lamelo base RC will likely sell for $50+ and random inserts/color of semi decent players will likely sell for $20+, meaning it will probably be pretty easy to recoup roughly half the cost for my box, selling cards I have no interest in or could just rebuy at 20% of what I sell them for later on.



I don't know about the rest of the great braintrust of blowout, but to me, I will take that scenario all day with a smile on my face

So you recoup half your box cost, roughly $400. And keep what in terms of value? I'd get it if you are ok with that kick in the nuts, but you just stated that your aren't.

I'm not about to tell anyone how to spend their money, but it seems like a bizarre way of justfying how this was a good buy.

edit: I also understand you like the appeal of the set, but why not wait a few weeks and get the cards you are interested in for 20% of the first market to price, like you state?

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk

[mc1]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

So you recoup half your box cost, roughly $400. And keep what in terms of value? I'd get it if you are ok with that kick in the nuts, but you just stated that your aren't.

I'm not about to tell anyone how to spend their money, but it seems like a bizarre way of justfying how this was a good buy.



Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk

Such a great buy but he only bought 1.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

So you recoup half your box cost, roughly $400. And keep what in terms of value? I'd get it if you are ok with that kick in the nuts, but you just stated that your aren't.

I'm not about to tell anyone how to spend their money, but it seems like a bizarre way of justfying how this was a good buy.



Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk

I'm stating it's a good buy in the scenario above for me personally in terms of ripping something with a solid floor right after release

A roughly 50% ROI on an NBA hobby box while keeping the cards you're interested in holding in today's market feels like a W assuming you have some discretionary funds to spend.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by mc1

Such a great buy but he only bought 1.

I bought it to rip.

We all know ripping is a losing proposition on the vast majority of products (but a fun one).

I just keep stating that I think this is LESS of a losing proposition to rip than most hobby releases of late.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Let's play a game for shits & giggles..

Let's say I enjoy opening hobby products like I did until 2019 before this market went ballistic. Lets say that before 2019 even the thought of opening retail made me want to vomit, but like most I had to switch that thinking if I wanted to open up anything the last couple of years.

Lets now assume that I don't enjoy getting my balls beat in when I open a box and and would like to recoup at least some of my box cost, ideally

Now let's say i can get a hobby box before retail comes out and potentially before hobby as well and can then be one of the first to market with singles. When cards like a Lamelo base RC will likely sell for $50+ and random inserts/color of semi decent players will likely sell for $20+, meaning it will probably be pretty easy to recoup roughly half the cost for my box, selling cards I have no interest in or could just rebuy at 20% of what I sell them for later on.

I don't know about the rest of the great braintrust of blowout, but to me, I will take that scenario all day with a smile on my face

So you want to open this "for fun" but are going to sell all or mostly everything and most likely take a bath on the box? Cool story.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

I bought it to rip.

We all know ripping is a losing proposition on the vast majority of products (but a fun one).

I just keep stating that I think this is LESS of a losing proposition to rip than most hobby releases of late.

cool story bro

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

So you want to open this "for fun" but are going to sell all or mostly everything and most likely take a bath on the box? Cool story.

Notice the part where I said "selling cards I have no interest in"?

You're not worth responding to any further.

I'll just pretend this is Facebook and I'm seeing yet another one of your posts for a manufactured Panini Instant logoman or 19/20 Illusions NBA sealed wax and ignore you like everybody else does

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Dude, you've literally never been right in anything we've argued before. Before I dunk on you again, just look at my post history with you. Try to remember when I told you that you were a complete dope for not wanting to buy 19/20 hoops premium sets when they were released and stop.

Don't waste your time on here when you could be maxing out another credit card and putting up more Facebook posts trying to recoup your money that no one replies to

Not wanting to buy 19-20 Hoops Premium sets? I have 80 of them. Couldn't even break even right now if I bought them all at MSRP. The vast majority my average price is like $215. So bloodbath city. I wish I would have bought none of them. My biggest issue is I somehow can never pick the right time to sell on anything that matters. It should be basically impossible but I manage to do it.

No one replies on facebook because for the average buyer this stuff is dead. No one collects anymore. The lowest percentage of people collect right now than any other time in history. If people don't think they can turn a profit they aren't buying. I had more people messaging me on facebook probably any 2 week period from mid 2020 until early 2021 then I have had total the last give or take 12 weeks. What does that tell you? I've sold endless amounts of stuff the last 3 months and at least 95% of it has been to breakers and shops. In terms of just wax it may be pretty close to 100%. There are a couple guys I don't know if they were breakers or not. It's pretty hilarious when big shops are paying as much or more than your average buyer off ebay and they usually buy in bulk.