calculusdork's 2021 Cy Young Predictor

[Nostalgia]

When do they announce the winner?

[rman112]

Originally Posted by rats60

What if they based their vote on FIP and fWAR and put Buehler 4th on their ballots? I am sorry your guy didn't make the top 3, but the guys who did absolutely are deserving. When you have more than 3 strong candidates, someone is not going to finish in the top 3.

Then Eovaldi wouldn't have finished behind Lynn.

[rman112]

And if FIP/fWAR matters most, you think the voting will be Wheeler, Burnes, and Scherzer a distant 3rd? No way.

[Junior2430]

Originally Posted by brewtown107

Scherzer didn't switch leagues.

My bad switch teams, good catch. The stat still holds true. Only one has ever switched teams and won.

[Junior2430]

Originally Posted by rats60

What if they based their vote on FIP and fWAR and put Buehler 4th on their ballots? I am sorry your guy didn't make the top 3, but the guys who did absolutely are deserving. When you have more than 3 strong candidates, someone is not going to finish in the top 3.

I'm a pirates and Braves fan lol so Buehler isn't my guy. I just think the voting is putrid. All are deserving of winning to your point , but no chance Buehler shouldn't have been a finalist. No chance at all.

I also wouldn't assume he finished 4th based. This voters clearly sent in before game 162, that much is 100% certain.

It's a popularity contest, scherzer is a lock.

[phildow]

Originally Posted by rman112

And if FIP/fWAR matters most, you think the voting will be Wheeler, Burnes, and Scherzer a distant 3rd? No way.

It's interesting that BBref has Wheeler at 7.6 WAR & Burnes at 5.6 WAR, while FanGraphs has Burnes at 7.5 WAR & Wheeler at 7.3 WAR. Scherzer at 6.0 and 5.4, respectively.

Old school-ers probably see the 213 IP and use that as a deciding factor for Wheeler getting their 1st place vote.
New school-ers probably look at the "basic" statistics like WHIP, BB/9, strand rate, etc. and use that as the deciding factor for voting Scherzer.
"Ultra modern" writers probably see the BABIP, HR/9, Barrels/PA, etc. and use that as the deciding factor for voting for Burnes (...or Wheeler).

Isn't it arguably good for the game & fans that this thread is seeing people debate over the Cy Young outcome?

[the36chamber]

Orel Hershiser is presenting NL award. Won 1988 CYA with the Dodgers.
Jack McDowell is presenting AL award. Won 1993 CYA with the White Sox.

Draw your own conclusions.

[Nostalgia]

Lynn isn’t winning it.

So not sure what conclusions can be made.


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[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by the36chamber

Orel Hershiser is presenting NL award. Won 1988 CYA with the Dodgers.
Jack McDowell is presenting AL award. Won 1993 CYA with the White Sox.

Draw your own conclusions.

Man that would be so messed up.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Lynn isn’t winning it.

So not sure what conclusions can be made.


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Rodon and Urias ftw?



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[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

2021 NL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Max Scherzer 94.24
2. Zack Wheeler 93.13
3. Walker Buehler 92.62
4. Julio Urias 90.76
5. Corbin Burnes 85.86
6. Kevin Gausman 85.37
7. Adam Wainwright 84.96
8. Brandon Woodruff 81.71


2021 AL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Robbie Ray 86.59
2. Gerrit Cole 86.57
3. Jose Berrios 78.28
4. Frankie Montas 77.26
5. Lucas Giolito 75.32
6. Lance McCullers 72.82
7. Nate Eovaldi 72.29

Tonight's the night!

In case anyone was wondering ... Lance Lynn goes:

2021 AL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Robbie Ray 86.59
2. Gerrit Cole 86.57
3. Jose Berrios 78.28
4. Frankie Montas 77.26
5. Lucas Giolito 75.32
6. Lance McCullers 72.82
7. Nate Eovaldi 72.29
8. HERE <---

[calculusdork]

If anything, Lance Lynn finishing third (or better!) completely redefines the importance of innings pitched. Once upon a time, 200+ was the standard. Then, somewhere around 180+ (Blake Snell). I thought it would never slip below 162 ... and I was wrong.

[calculusdork]

Interestingly enough, the ESPN "expert poll" has Wheeler (6/13) and Ray (10/13).

Having Hershiser and McDowell present could just be a big juke. I'd bet it is.

Let us not forget, that this was calculusdork's ACTUAL prediction:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

What I think will actually happen:

AL: Robbie Ray wins with 18-20 first place votes, Cole picks up 9-10, someone else (e.g. Liam Hendriks) picks up 1-2. Predictor needs to shift away from wins, and perhaps toward advanced metrics and consideration of recent performance.

NL: While I'm confident that my top 5 will be the top 5 in some order (who isn't), there are many factors to consider. I think these three factors could determine the race: (1) How much do voters care about advanced metrics? (2) How much does having 3 of the top 5 on the same team hurt each of those 3? (3) How much does voting favor recent performance vs the entire body of work?

(1) favors Burnes and Wheeler
(2) favors Burnes and Wheeler
(3) favors Wheeler and Urias, and to a lesser extent Buehler

Guys ... I'm actually starting to lean Wheeler here. He is first in bWAR, second in fWAR, and leads the NL in IP and K. He won't suffer the fate of having votes split across teammates. He finished strong. I think a helpful question to ask yourself is: "Who would you be most surprised to not see among the three NL CY finalists?" My answer to that question is Zack Wheeler.

calculusdork's Non-Predictor 2021 NL CY Prediction
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Max Scherzer
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Walker Buehler
5. Julio Urias

I believe all 5 will receive at least one first-place vote.

[Nostalgia]

I think Ray is a lock. Especially since it seems they voted before his last start.

[calculusdork]

AL CY -- Robbie Ray

[calculusdork]

Wow ... Ray got 29 first place votes

[Nostalgia]

RAY was easy.

NL will be fun.

[gmoney328]

Burnes got it. Very close.

[calculusdork]

Tons of people complaining about how Cole had "better advanced stats" .....

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by gmoney328

Burnes got it. Very close.

WOW

[calculusdork]

NL CY -- Corbin Burnes

[calculusdork]

Total results:

AL - https://bbwaa.com/21-al-cy/
NL - https://bbwaa.com/21-nl-cy/

[Nostalgia]

Scherzer 3rd.

Didnt see that coming.

[calculusdork]

Craziest part about the Burnes win ... it wasn't about first-place votes, but rather second-place votes. This was almost one of those weird races (like 2016 AL) where the winner had less first-place votes than the next guy.

Burnes - 12, 14, 3, 1, 0
Wheeler - 12, 9, 4, 4, 1

Finally ... I am not surprised by 1-4, but I am shocked that Urias finished so low. It's official ... wins no longer matter.

[KhalDrogo]

What exactly won Burnes the award? ERA and ERA+ champ?