Newb Rainbow Help

bakelle1 · 10-31-2021, 12:03 PM

I got back into collecting earlier this year and luckily started buying during the peak

I saw some of the awesome rainbows on here and started a Deandre Ayton 18-19 Prizm Rainbow (all PSA 9/10) since I already purchased a couple of silvers.

Fast forward to today, I have completed the rainbow up to Purple Ice (1/149) sans Choice Tiger. I have spent a couple grand up to this point and continuing the rainbow will require a significant investment. What concerns me is that I purchased a couple of PSA 10 silvers for $400+ and now they’re doing ~$175.

For those that have pursued a rainbow like this, do you just accept that there’s a substantial risk involved? What happens if Ayton ends up being a good fringe all-star, but nothing more? Will the cards lose almost all value?

salthill · 10-31-2021, 12:27 PM

Owning a rainbow is usually a collector’s goal, rather than an investor’s.
Couple of reasons, but the main one is that you won’t sell a rainbow for more than the cost of the individual cards. (And will usually have to break it up and sell separately to maximise the value.)
For the same reason, it doesn’t matter how well they perform. The value of the rainbow will only ever reflect the sum of the cards. So if they’re a fringe player, the value will match that.
One tip - start with the 1/1. It’s much easier to pick up the rest than fill that hole. (Bear in mind if the next card is /5, and you have one, there are four other people potentially building that rainbow too, and one of them might already have the 1/1.)

BartvH · 11-02-2021, 06:00 AM

Like Salthill basically already implied, if you're doing a rainbow for the investment, you're probably better off putting your money elsewhere.

Apart from the reasons he already mentioned a lot of cards in a rainbow are probably going to be hard to move down the line (also depends on how Ayton's career plays out obviously). What I mean is even when players blow up there is going to be a jump in demand for certain parallels, the silver, the gold etc. However it may be tricky to sell a Lucky Envelopes /8 or whatever for what you've paid for it.

A lot of people will tell you to start off with the (or a, since there's generally multiple now) 1/1 and I get that. My personal advice however would be, start early. Basically decide before the product comes out that you're going to make a run at the rainbow. If you started the 2018-19 prizm rainbow this year, the chances of actually completing it are slim to none because a lot of the low numbered cards are going to be locked up in collections already.

Oldschool42 · 11-02-2021, 12:35 PM

Good luck, there’s a big Sun’s collector on IG. The last two years have sucked for rainbow chasers. Box prices are high (fewer opened) and with so many releases of you don’t grab them fast you may never see a low number for a long time. Now factor in greed and what were once $ 30-50 cards are now double or triple that. Sorry, but a John Wall 19/20 Gold /10 One and One is not worth what they have sold for (last one closed at $698! And multiple @ $400 plus). Dude isn’t even playing! Most of my 1/1’s bought by me cost between $50-300.

Trust me I have a huge John Wall john_wall-pc. I started in 2016. My new goal is to get all cards /5 or higher, even that is close to impossible.

Mahomie · 11-02-2021, 07:31 PM

Some good advice in here already. This is important to keep in mind:

Quote:

Originally Posted by salthill

Owning a rainbow is usually a collector’s goal, rather than an investor’s.

I only build rainbows of players that I really want to PC. The idea of "risk" never really occurs to me, because I'm just collecting what I like.

bakelle1 · 11-02-2021, 09:37 PM

Thanks guys. It looks like I should be comfortable spending money that I will never get back, thus I'm close to the end of my rainbow. Spending $1k+/card just isn't in my throwing money away budget.

Assuming no massive movement in the card market (unlikely based on recent history), what would you expect a PSA 10 Ayton Silver to be at in 5 years if he's a good but no great player? It's currently at $175-200. Would you expect it to remain steady or will there be a point that it's clear he's reached his ceiling and the card will lose significant value?

exclusively_nba · 11-03-2021, 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bakelle1

Assuming no massive movement in the card market (unlikely based on recent history), what would you expect a PSA 10 Ayton Silver to be at in 5 years if he's a good but no great player? It's currently at $175-200. Would you expect it to remain steady or will there be a point that it's clear he's reached his ceiling and the card will lose significant value?

Short of him becoming an All-NBA or MVP type player, the price of the silver 10 will likely go down a lot as the years go by. His style of play and his position kind of limit the upside too. He’s a good player, but he’s not very exciting to watch. And I say that as a guy who’s favorite player was Al Horford for like 8 years.

10-31-2021, 12:03 PM	#1
bakelle1 Member Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 471	Newb Rainbow Help I got back into collecting earlier this year and luckily started buying during the peak I saw some of the awesome rainbows on here and started a Deandre Ayton 18-19 Prizm Rainbow (all PSA 9/10) since I already purchased a couple of silvers. Fast forward to today, I have completed the rainbow up to Purple Ice (1/149) sans Choice Tiger. I have spent a couple grand up to this point and continuing the rainbow will require a significant investment. What concerns me is that I purchased a couple of PSA 10 silvers for $400+ and now they’re doing ~$175. For those that have pursued a rainbow like this, do you just accept that there’s a substantial risk involved? What happens if Ayton ends up being a good fringe all-star, but nothing more? Will the cards lose almost all value?

11-02-2021, 06:00 AM	#3
BartvH Member Join Date: Oct 2018 Location: The Netherlands (Have US mailbox) Posts: 554 BartvH84 BartvH	Like Salthill basically already implied, if you're doing a rainbow for the investment, you're probably better off putting your money elsewhere. Apart from the reasons he already mentioned a lot of cards in a rainbow are probably going to be hard to move down the line (also depends on how Ayton's career plays out obviously). What I mean is even when players blow up there is going to be a jump in demand for certain parallels, the silver, the gold etc. However it may be tricky to sell a Lucky Envelopes /8 or whatever for what you've paid for it. A lot of people will tell you to start off with the (or a, since there's generally multiple now) 1/1 and I get that. My personal advice however would be, start early. Basically decide before the product comes out that you're going to make a run at the rainbow. If you started the 2018-19 prizm rainbow this year, the chances of actually completing it are slim to none because a lot of the low numbered cards are going to be locked up in collections already. __________________ PC: Damian Lillard - IG: @Lillardcards

10-31-2021, 12:27 PM	#2
salthill Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 8,527 salthill	Owning a rainbow is usually a collector’s goal, rather than an investor’s. Couple of reasons, but the main one is that you won’t sell a rainbow for more than the cost of the individual cards. (And will usually have to break it up and sell separately to maximise the value.) For the same reason, it doesn’t matter how well they perform. The value of the rainbow will only ever reflect the sum of the cards. So if they’re a fringe player, the value will match that. One tip - start with the 1/1. It’s much easier to pick up the rest than fill that hole. (Bear in mind if the next card is /5, and you have one, there are four other people potentially building that rainbow too, and one of them might already have the 1/1.)

11-02-2021, 12:35 PM	#4
Oldschool42 Member Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,637	Good luck, there’s a big Sun’s collector on IG. The last two years have sucked for rainbow chasers. Box prices are high (fewer opened) and with so many releases of you don’t grab them fast you may never see a low number for a long time. Now factor in greed and what were once $ 30-50 cards are now double or triple that. Sorry, but a John Wall 19/20 Gold /10 One and One is not worth what they have sold for (last one closed at $698! And multiple @ $400 plus). Dude isn’t even playing! Most of my 1/1’s bought by me cost between $50-300. Trust me I have a huge John Wall john_wall-pc. I started in 2016. My new goal is to get all cards /5 or higher, even that is close to impossible.

11-02-2021, 09:37 PM	#6
bakelle1 Member Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 471	Thanks guys. It looks like I should be comfortable spending money that I will never get back, thus I'm close to the end of my rainbow. Spending $1k+/card just isn't in my throwing money away budget. Assuming no massive movement in the card market (unlikely based on recent history), what would you expect a PSA 10 Ayton Silver to be at in 5 years if he's a good but no great player? It's currently at $175-200. Would you expect it to remain steady or will there be a point that it's clear he's reached his ceiling and the card will lose significant value?