He hit 30 HR in the minors this year! AND!....BUT...

[marterburn]

Sure, it's an arbitrary benchmark. But it's an interesting thing to look at, since HR probably the single thing we care most about for the hobby & the list is short enough to digest. Here we go, under 26 is the only parameter not shown:

MJ Melendez (41 HR, AA/AAA) AND answered the "will he ever hit" question really & truly. Regardless of where he goes defensively, he looks like hit bat will play anywhere. Imagine saying that 6 months ago! ...BUT will the Royals mess with his call-up because he doesn't have a defensive home that has playing time available? I was shocked that the Royals didn't want to see more 3B from him in the AFL. But maybe 9 games was enough for them?

Nick Pratto (36 HR, AA/AAA) AND like Melendez, cemented himself as a top 5 prospect at his position. ...BUT his 28.8 K% is a bit concerning.

Griffin Conine (35 HR, A+/AA) AND it's good to see him keep showing ability to hit HR as he moves up levels ...BUT he doesn't look great at anything but power. The 22 SwStr% is awful, the 40 K% is awful, and his 12.6 BB% isn't enough to offset a low .200's BA.

Bobby Witt Jr (33 HR, AA/AAA) AND will likely be MiLB POY. I don't need to expand on it ...BUT but nothing. There's nothing here to indicate he won't be a star in the majors as soon as next year.

Andy Pages (31 HR, A+) AND was the youngest to do it. He's more than that though. His SwStr% was 11.9% & his BB% was 14.3% -- for 20 YO power bat, that's elite ...BUT if the Dodgers try to tweak his approach to tap into more hit tool, it could cost him some power. It's a quite minor thing. This is the third most impressive performer on this list, in my book.

Oscar Gonzalez (31 HR, AA/AAA) AND proved you don't need a good plate approach to perform. His BA was higher than anyone not named Miranda here ...BUT will he be able to continue this? Seems like he's just going to be exposed more as he plays a full season at AAA. What differentiates him from other low BB% guys is his 17.9 SwStr%.

Dermis Garcia (31 HR, AA) AND well, you know, a 30 HR season is good regardles of anything else! ...BUT nothing he did indicates he can succeed in the majors. 19.4 SwStr%, 37.9 K%, .210 BA, .307 OBP are all overwhelming negatives.

Brandon Lewis (30 HR, A/A+) AND did it in 70 fewer PA's than anyone here without a crazy high K% ...BUT that K% is still pretty darn high (30.4%) and he wasn't playing at a high level for his age (though his performance was actually better in A+)

Spencer Torkelson (30 HR, A+/AA/AAA) AND showed us all what we want to see - that he's a legit power bat in addition to being a great hitter for average...BUT is he a great average hitter? It looks good under the hood but the overall results are just a .267 BA.

Brendon Davis (30 HR. A+/AA/AAA) AND in doing so showed up out of nowhere (this is a 2015 draftee!) to put himself on the map as a guy that's quite likely to reach the majors ...BUT is it real? He's 24 now -- is this just another Jaylin Davis?

Jose Miranda (30 HR, AA/AAA) AND led the all the minors in hits & hit .344, .051 higher than anyone else here ....BUT he hits a ton of line drives & has a sub 30% FB -- it means that while he's likely to be a great hitter, unless hits hits laser HR's consistently, he's more likely to be a consistent 20-25 HR guy than a 30+ HR guy.

[ThoseBackPages]

BWJ & Tork!

[LVDan]

Freaking Dodgers man-Andy Pages now? What AS caliber player will they trade him for when they need a piece next year?
Thanks for the nice writeup.

[kidbrando]

Big Miranda fan. Twins will find a way to screw it up.


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[cardsin47]

This is very impressive, and I for one appreciate you sharing it with us

[PejaD]

Power numbers were epic this year due to approach and late start eliminating those cold weather April games in many regions.

Andy Pages is an intriguing one. Still relatively unknown (how many of you know how to pronounce his last name?), but has the right pedigree and power prodigy type trajectory.

[CanadianKid]

Thanks for this!

[vwnut13]

Damn, Volpe only hit 27 HRs. Total scrub.

[VandyCards]

Why do you think Oscar Gonzalez has a bad approach ?


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[ucLAkers]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Freaking Dodgers man-Andy Pages now? What AS caliber player will they trade him for when they need a piece next year?
Thanks for the nice writeup.

The Farm that grows the most my friend….

[mfw13]

It's a number, but IMHO the more important data point to look at for minor league hitters is BB/K ratio, since HR numbers can fluctuate wildly in the minors depending on league & home ballpark, whereas plate approach generally translates pretty accurately.

Guys who have horrible BB/K ratios in the minors are going to get eaten alive in the majors.

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's a number, but IMHO the more important data point to look at for minor league hitters is BB/K ratio, since HR numbers can fluctuate wildly in the minors depending on league & home ballpark, whereas plate approach generally translates pretty accurately.

Guys who have horrible BB/K ratios in the minors are going to get eaten alive in the majors.

I don’t look at walks as particularly meaningful until AA(ish). Especially in Low A and below, so many pitchers have such bad control and are working on development points, being able to wait out 4 balls just doesn’t mean as much.

High K rate absolutely can be a concern. For as much as Gallo Ks now, it was downright manageable in the lower minors.


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[marterburn]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Why do you think Oscar Gonzalez has a bad approach ?


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Low BB% coupled with a high SwStr%. There are unicorns that get away with it (like Luis Robert), but it's a more likely scenario that he gets exposed.

Obviously I can't see HH data for minor leaguers, but I suspect he's gotten away with it because he hits the ball really hard.

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[marterburn]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's a number, but IMHO the more important data point to look at for minor league hitters is BB/K ratio, since HR numbers can fluctuate wildly in the minors depending on league & home ballpark, whereas plate approach generally translates pretty accurately.

Guys who have horrible BB/K ratios in the minors are going to get eaten alive in the majors.

I agree with Vandy here. Extreme example -- Trevor Hauver. Dude had a 21% BB rate in Low-A before he got traded to Texas, and his K% was 26%. Gets traded to Texas & moved to A+, and his K% jumps to 33%, and BB% drops to 14%.

The ratio change makes him look like a completely different prospect, but really it's just a bit of a struggle to adjust to (much) better pitching. His SwStr% went from 8.4% to 13.1% with the level jump, which in his case tells a more accurate story.

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by marterburn

Low BB% coupled with a high SwStr%. There are unicorns that get away with it (like Luis Robert), but it's a more likely scenario that he gets exposed.

Obviously I can't see HH data for minor leaguers, but I suspect he's gotten away with it because he hits the ball really hard.

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Or perhaps he has a BABIP notably higher than league average precisely because he can identify pitches he can do damage with. Which would indicate a good approach. His ISO is also pretty significantly high. 230-270 would be between 12th and 30th in the majors. And his K rate is pretty normal. That is an approach.

If you got the juice, going up there looking to walk is a bad approach.


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[marterburn]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Or perhaps he has a BABIP notably higher than league average precisely because he can identify pitches he can do damage with. Which would indicate a good approach. His ISO is also pretty significantly high. 230-270 would be between 12th and 30th in the majors. And his K rate is pretty normal. That is an approach.

If you got the juice, going up there looking to walk is a bad approach.


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(Edits this paragraph) His BABIP was around .320, which indicates he's either fast (nope) or hitting the ball hard (likely).

He's a tough one to figure out for me -- always has been. It's not a super-normal path to success and it's a statistical profile I struggle with.

Only 8 MLB players with 300 AB's had a SwStr% over 17% this year, and the ones who were successful all also hit the ball hard and have low BB% -- Baez, Sal Perez, Adolis Garcia, Avisail Garcia, Dalbec are the notable ones.

Could Gonzalez be one of those? Sure. But my guess is that it's a tightrope he's walking.



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[VandyCards]

Ryan Mountcastle doesn’t walk very much. Adam Jones didn’t. He might be in the Mountcastle vein. Admittedly Mountcastle walks at like 1.5-2x the rate. But in real terms it isn’t a lot of walks over the course of a year.

Willians Astudillo and Alejandro Kirk also don’t walk much (but also K much less). And Oscar has slightly more defensive value.

I’m curious on Gonzalez, what is his %ile for swinging strike rate, versus his %ile for K-rate? He swings a lot, like way more than most, but also doesn’t strike out a ton (relatively). And if he swings at a lot of doo doo pitches and still manages a good BABIP and power numbers, that’s pretty good.

I have seen Gonzalez at 3 stages (short season, hi a, AA). And he hunts pitches to do damage with, and can make strong contact out of the zone. Like I don’t think he’s going to be a star, but he’ll be a streaky corner OF who will have some great weeks and some really bad ones. Like, guys who slash 280/290/500 have roles as lower division regulars.


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[LCM1223]

Pratto!

First time I’ve ever invested in a guy (even minimally) that was a top 3 HR leader

[LCM1223]

Pratto!

First time I’ve ever invested in a guy (even minimally) that was a top 3 HR leader

[marterburn]

So, I will acquiesce that calling Gonzalez's approach poor is a bit harsh, because this hyper-aggressive approach can work as you've laid out. It's more to say -- this guy is going to be this way, and if it starts to not work, he's probably going to struggle to adjust. I'm eager to see his advanced data like O-Swing, Z-swing, etc.

What i didn't say is that unless he does fail immediately, he's likely to reach the majors next year - so this won't be a long wait. Hitting. 265 with power at AAA in the Indians org is enough to merit a callup.

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[Yaga]

I don't think I've ever heard of Brendon Davis before reading this lol. Nice write up

[OneSickDegen]

Always enjoy your viewpoints and analysis marterburn! Thanks!

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by Yaga

I don't think I've ever heard of Brendon Davis before reading this lol. Nice write up

At first glance, I just assumed he meant Brennen Davis but then got to the "out of nowhere" part and realized I also had never heard of Brendon Davis (and after a little looking around, looks like Bowman/Topps hasn't thought too highly of him either).

As always, nice work marterburn.

[BaseballKing]

Very impressive analysis. I'm guessing you do pretty well when it comes to prospecting.

I think Torkelson can be the next Judge( college hitter with long term hobby appeal).

He has a great name. Not easily forgotten.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's a number, but IMHO the more important data point to look at for minor league hitters is BB/K ratio, since HR numbers can fluctuate wildly in the minors depending on league & home ballpark, whereas plate approach generally translates pretty accurately.

Guys who have horrible BB/K ratios in the minors are going to get eaten alive in the majors.

ISO is the most important stat for a minor leaguer.