calculusdork's 2021 Cy Young Predictor

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by rman112

Can you explain why WAR should be the most important metric to evaluate a pitcher's results? If bRef WAR, why that one? If FG war, why that one?

I'm working on an algorithm for yWAR. Once I'm done, it will guarantee the pitcher/player I am invested in will always come out #1.

[calculusdork]

There is a "What the Predictor Says vs What I Think Will Actually Happen" post forthcoming ....

[calculusdork]

2021 NL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Max Scherzer 94.24
2. Zack Wheeler 93.13
3. Walker Buehler 92.62
4. Julio Urias 90.76
5. Corbin Burnes 85.86
6. Kevin Gausman 85.37
7. Adam Wainwright 84.96
8. Brandon Woodruff 81.71


2021 AL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Robbie Ray 86.59
2. Gerrit Cole 86.57
3. Jose Berrios 78.28
4. Frankie Montas 77.26
5. Lucas Giolito 75.32
6. Lance McCullers 72.82
7. Nate Eovaldi 72.29

[Boo]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

2021 NL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Max Scherzer 94.24
2. Zack Wheeler 93.13
3. Walker Buehler 92.62
4. Julio Urias 90.76
5. Corbin Burnes 85.86
6. Kevin Gausman 85.37
7. Adam Wainwright 84.96
8. Brandon Woodruff 81.71


2021 AL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Robbie Ray 86.59
2. Gerrit Cole 86.57
3. Jose Berrios 78.28
4. Frankie Montas 77.26
5. Lucas Giolito 75.32
6. Lance McCullers 72.82
7. Nate Eovaldi 72.29

Will 0-2 be bad?

[Thor34]

Curious to whether Cole in the Playoffs and Robbie Ray out makes a difference to the voters.
Does anyone know what is the exact deadline for the voters to get their votes in?

[calculusdork]

What I think will actually happen:

AL: Robbie Ray wins with 18-20 first place votes, Cole picks up 9-10, someone else (e.g. Liam Hendriks) picks up 1-2. Predictor needs to shift away from wins, and perhaps toward advanced metrics and consideration of recent performance.

NL: While I'm confident that my top 5 will be the top 5 in some order (who isn't), there are many factors to consider. I think these three factors could determine the race: (1) How much do voters care about advanced metrics? (2) How much does having 3 of the top 5 on the same team hurt each of those 3? (3) How much does voting favor recent performance vs the entire body of work?

(1) favors Burnes and Wheeler
(2) favors Burnes and Wheeler
(3) favors Wheeler and Urias, and to a lesser extent Buehler

Guys ... I'm actually starting to lean Wheeler here. He is first in bWAR, second in fWAR, and leads the NL in IP and K. He won't suffer the fate of having votes split across teammates. He finished strong. I think a helpful question to ask yourself is: "Who would you be most surprised to not see among the three NL CY finalists?" My answer to that question is Zack Wheeler.

calculusdork's Non-Predictor 2021 NL CY Prediction
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Max Scherzer
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Walker Buehler
5. Julio Urias

I believe all 5 will receive at least one first-place vote.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Boo

Will 0-2 be bad?

Meh.

[jstasyk1121]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

What I think will actually happen:

AL: Robbie Ray wins with 18-20 first place votes, Cole picks up 9-10, someone else (e.g. Liam Hendriks) picks up 1-2. Predictor needs to shift away from wins, and perhaps toward advanced metrics and consideration of recent performance.

NL: While I'm confident that my top 5 will be the top 5 in some order (who isn't), there are many factors to consider. I think these three factors could determine the race: (1) How much do voters care about advanced metrics? (2) How much does having 3 of the top 5 on the same team hurt each of those 3? (3) How much does voting favor recent performance vs the entire body of work?

(1) favors Burnes and Wheeler
(2) favors Burnes and Wheeler
(3) favors Wheeler and Urias, and to a lesser extent Buehler

Guys ... I'm actually starting to lean Wheeler here. He is first in bWAR, second in fWAR, and leads the NL in IP and K. He won't suffer the fate of having votes split across teammates. He finished strong. I think a helpful question to ask yourself is: "Who would you be most surprised to not see among the three NL CY finalists?" My answer to that question is Zack Wheeler.

calculusdork's Non-Predictor 2021 NL CY Prediction
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Max Scherzer
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Walker Buehler
5. Julio Urias

I believe all 5 will receive at least one first-place vote.

Wheeler for sure will get a bump for IP/K league leaders...but then he is also behind the other 3 in both ERA/WHIP and in 4th in those spots....also trails a couple of them in Wins....

As for WAR...i just dont know if it does much on pitching side of things...its so hard to make sense of it sometimes...like someone else said Eovaldi is leading in one of them---and guys from CIN are way up in the NL too...like Mahle and Miley and to me I think the park stuff is weighted too heavily for pitching WAR...

you have swayed me though in that i believe Burnes might be the odd man out potentially...the splitting votes could be a concern...especially if Urias is the one taking votes from the other two..he could end up costing his teammate the award due to this 3-headed vote from one team

i do find it funny that we have posts now saying "how they finished should matter" when talking about Buehler/Scherzer and their last TWO starts...when if you extend that to 4 starts then they both have 2 good and 2 bad...i mean that is very extreme small sample size there...when we are only looking at the last week of the season and not even September as a whole

Buehler entered Sept with a 2.04era and finished the year at 2.47....he did not finish strong! he had 2 good starts to end the year but had 2 pretty bad starts and 2 quality starts the rest of the month

Scherzer entered Sept with a 2.51era and finished with a 2.46...he had 4 awesome starts (29ip, 0er, 2bb, 38k and 12 hits!) then finished by getting rocked 2x...his Sept was still much better overall

Wheeler had a better month overall than both of them...but then you are forgetting that in AUG he was HORRIBLE!! started month with a 7.1ip 4er game...then a 2hit CGSO--era was down to 2.42 after this gem...then reeled off 4 bad starts in a row: 19er in 26ip to bring his ERA to 3.00

Burnes was alright in September...he did have the 8inn no hitter that they didnt let him finish...then couple shorter starts...not really a strong or weak finish for him overall

it will be a close and interesting vote and could go many ways with everything that everyone has stated...my fandom is stronger for Max than it is for Buehler so im still rooting for Max and since its not a crazy argument to make that is who my argument tends to lean to LOL

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by jstasyk1121

it will be a close and interesting vote and could go many ways with everything that everyone has stated...my fandom is stronger for Max than it is for Buehler so im still rooting for Max and since its not a crazy argument to make that is who my argument tends to lean to LOL

I will not be disappointed at all if Scherzer wins. I love Max and would love to see him join that elite 4 CY club.

[KhalDrogo]

ERA is the most important statistic, with weight toward total innings pitched. So when the gap between the the top three and bottom two is wide, I don’t agree that the bottom two have a realistic chance at the award.

1. Buehler
2. Scherzer
3. Burnes
4. Wheeler
5. Urias

No complaints if 1/2 or 3/4 are flopped.

[SVTCobraGuy523]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

ERA is the most important statistic, with weight toward total innings pitched. So when the gap between the the top three and bottom two is wide, I don’t agree that the bottom two have a realistic chance at the award.



1. Buehler

2. Scherzer

3. Burnes

4. Wheeler

5. Urias



No complaints if 1/2 or 3/4 are flopped.

I think this is the most accurate list I've seen.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

ERA is the most important statistic, with weight toward total innings pitched. So when the gap between the the top three and bottom two is wide, I don’t agree that the bottom two have a realistic chance at the award.

1. Buehler
2. Scherzer
3. Burnes
4. Wheeler
5. Urias

No complaints if 1/2 or 3/4 are flopped.

We don't have to go back very far to find very obvious counter-examples of this very thing happening.

We again enter the realm of "should happen" vs "will happen".

However, I am prepared to be completely wrong.

[calculusdork]

A couple of recent counterexamples:

- 2016 NL, Bumgarner threw as many innings as Scherzer with a lower ERA. (In fact, Scherzer finished 8th in ERA.) Scherzer won 20 games, Bum won 15. Scherzer had 33 more strikeouts. Scherzer received 25 first-place votes; Bum received zero.

- 2019 AL, one additional start (and win) and a historically low WHIP (not ERA) won the award for Verlander over Cole.

[hche]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

ERA is the most important statistic, with weight toward total innings pitched. So when the gap between the the top three and bottom two is wide, I don’t agree that the bottom two have a realistic chance at the award.

1. Buehler
2. Scherzer
3. Burnes
4. Wheeler
5. Urias

No complaints if 1/2 or 3/4 are flopped.

I agreed with this list. Except for the 20W, I just don't see how Urias can crack the top 4. Sadly, if he is in AL, he probably would have won.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

A couple of recent counterexamples:

- 2016 NL, Bumgarner threw as many innings as Scherzer with a lower ERA. (In fact, Scherzer finished 8th in ERA.) Scherzer won 20 games, Bum won 15. Scherzer had 33 more strikeouts. Scherzer received 25 first-place votes; Bum received zero.

- 2019 AL, one additional start (and win) and a historically low WHIP (not ERA) won the award for Verlander over Cole.

2016 voting should not have been that lopsided. East coast bias?

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

2016 voting should not have been that lopsided. East coast bias?

In retrospect, it was a strange year. You had both Cubs leading baseball in ERA, with the Cubs being the story and Hendriks / Lester soaking up all of the press that Scherzer wasn't.

But Madison was the clubhouse leader at the break. Had a sub 2 ERA and had just come off a 14K SO of Arizona. 2nd half, we wasn't nearly as good, ERA ballooned all the way up to 2.74 and wasn't even in the discussion.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

2016 voting should not have been that lopsided. East coast bias?

Far too many 1st-place votes to be considered any sort of bias. Simply put: Scherzer led the league in IP, K, WHIP, and won 20 games to boot. Voters concluded that leading all those stats trumped Scherzer's ERA.

However, as we're all aware, a funny thing happened in 2018. Jacob deGrom led the NL in ERA only -- leading no other major statistic -- but his ERA+ was so incredibly good that it didn't matter. deGrom's 2018 and 2019 represents a shift in voter thinking.

This is, IMO, why 2021 could go any direction. Do you give it to the 20-win guy who is 5th in ERA but went 11-0 in the second half? What about the league leader in IP and K? How about the ERA leader with all the incredible advanced metrics? League leader in K and WHIP? Or, perhaps the guy who doesn't lead ANY of those statistical categories, but is top 5 in ALL of them?

[hche]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

However, as we're all aware, a funny thing happened in 2018. Jacob deGrom led the NL in ERA only -- leading no other major statistic -- but his ERA+ was so incredibly good that it didn't matter. deGrom's 2018 and 2019 represents a shift in voter thinking.

Yeah, if the voting is done today, Hendricks would have won or a lot closer to the top in 2016.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by hche

Yeah, if the voting is done today, Hendricks would have won or a lot closer to the top in 2016.

I dunno man. Hendricks is the worst kind of pitcher for stat nerds. He was born 20 years too late.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I dunno man. Hendricks is the worst kind of pitcher for stat nerds. He was born 20 years too late.

Strikeouts are sexy. But they aren’t a more effective way to get a batter out.

I guess this is just humorous to me because Buehler reinvented himself this year. Pitched more to ground ball contact rather than trying to overpower hitters in order to get deeper in games, and be of more value to his team. And it worked.

[pspa123]

Scherzer could pick up some sentimental votes by people wanting to see him win his 4th. I think Buehler, on the whole, was the best pitcher in the NL this year but not by a huge margin. I would vote for Ray in the AL but would not be surprised at all to see Cole.

[jdandns]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

2021 NL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Max Scherzer 94.24
2. Zack Wheeler 93.13
3. Walker Buehler 92.62
4. Julio Urias 90.76
5. Corbin Burnes 85.86
6. Kevin Gausman 85.37
7. Adam Wainwright 84.96
8. Brandon Woodruff 81.71


2021 AL CY Prediction (FINAL, as of 10/4/21)
1. Robbie Ray 86.59
2. Gerrit Cole 86.57
3. Jose Berrios 78.28
4. Frankie Montas 77.26
5. Lucas Giolito 75.32
6. Lance McCullers 72.82
7. Nate Eovaldi 72.29

Good stuff!
Are the Ray/Cole numbers as close as it's ever been between 1 & 2?
It would be a real feather in the Predictor's cap if they tied for the actual award.

[Sisk]

I’m hoping for Wheeler. Also for Harper as MVP, odd for a Mets fan to have the Phils love.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by jdandns

Good stuff!
Are the Ray/Cole numbers as close as it's ever been between 1 & 2?
It would be a real feather in the Predictor's cap if they tied for the actual award.

Yes indeed. I'm expecting a little more separation, but ... then again, my premise for weeks was that the playoff-bound team would give way to the CY award.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by jstasyk1121

i do find it funny that we have posts now saying "how they finished should matter" when talking about Buehler/Scherzer and their last TWO starts...when if you extend that to 4 starts then they both have 2 good and 2 bad...i mean that is very extreme small sample size there...when we are only looking at the last week of the season and not even September as a whole

Scherzer went on an incredible run, and then got lit up twice. His ERA shot up big time. How much favor does that earlier run carry when you finish with this in your last 2 starts:

10.1 inn, 17 H, 10 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 3 HR - 8.71 ERA

And he's lucky that he didn't lose both of those games.

..

While Buehler ended with the following:

12 inn, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 16 K - 0.75 ERA