calculusdork's 2021 Cy Young Predictor - Page 32

KhalDrogo · 10-03-2021, 05:48 PM

This isn’t an award for who struck out the most or had the lowest WHIP. There’s one pitcher who sans a few starts in September, did it the best from start to finish. We saw this month that as the innings ticked up, everyone struggled. So yeah, big deal when one guy threw 28 and 40 innings more than the other two.

KhalDrogo · 10-03-2021, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Do you ever comment on something when you're not completely biased?

Of all the people above I only have semi valuable cards of Buehler and made a bet on him to win the CYA early this season so I want him to win as much as anyone, but you're insufferable.

You make K13 look like a valued poster on here.

rman112 · 10-03-2021, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This isn’t an award for who struck out the most or had the lowest WHIP. There’s one pitcher who sans a few starts in September, did it the best from start to finish. We saw this month that as the innings ticked up, everyone struggled. So yeah, big deal when one guy threw 28 and 40 innings more than the other two.

Yeah, gotta agree.

WHIP is fine, but why should it be among the most important metrics? Plus Scherzer gave up 4 more HR in 28 fewer innings than Buehler, or 7 more in 34 fewer innings than Wheeler. ERA ends up a wash, so I think you've gotta end up looking at how often each guy pitched to get those results.

KhalDrogo · 10-03-2021, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Yeah, gotta agree.

WHIP is fine, but why should it be among the most important metrics? Plus Scherzer gave up 4 more HR in 28 fewer innings than Buehler, or 7 more in 34 fewer innings than Wheeler. ERA ends up a wash, so I think you've gotta end up looking at how often each guy pitched to get those results.

0.11 difference in WHIP translates to 1 walk or hit per 9 innings. How significant is 1 extra base runner in a game?

calculusdork · 10-03-2021, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

0.11 difference in WHIP translates to 1 walk or hit per 9 innings. How significant is 1 extra base runner in a game?

Actually, pretty important ... but who really cares when it doesn't translate into more runs scored.

jdandns · 10-03-2021, 06:21 PM

When will the final Predictor results be known?

KhalDrogo · 10-03-2021, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Actually, pretty important ... but who really cares when it doesn't translate into more runs scored.

I can search and do the math, but do you have how many runs scored per walk + hit across the entire league this year?

calculusdork · 10-03-2021, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdandns

When will the final Predictor results be known?

Tomorrow AM.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I can search and do the math, but do you have how many runs scored per walk + hit across the entire league this year?

Also tomorrow.

Wolverine · 10-03-2021, 08:57 PM

Ohtani for sure. What he did this year was historic. Nobody else has done what he's done. It was so historic he should also get rookie of the year.

hammertime · 10-03-2021, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolverine

Ohtani for sure. What he did this year was historic. Nobody else has done what he's done. It was so historic he should also get rookie of the year.

He's already got one of those.

rats60 · 10-03-2021, 09:28 PM

WAR
Wheeler 7.6
Buehler 6.5
Scherzer 6.0
Burnes 5.6

FIP
Burnes 1.63
Wheeler 2.58
Scherzer 2.97
Buehler 3.23

ERA
Burnes 2.43
Scherzer 2.46
Buehler 2.47
Wheeler 2.78

SO
Wheeler 247
Scherzer 236
Burnes 234
Buehler 212

WHIP
Scherzer 0.86
Burnes 0.94
Buehler 0.97
Wheeler 1.008

Wins
Buehler 15 (16 if the Dodgers hold on)
Scherzer 15
Wheeler 14
Burnes 11

IP
Wheeler 213.1
Buehler 207.2
Scherzer 179.1
Burnes 167

QS
Buehler 27
Wheeler 20
Scherzer 18
Burnes 18

I find it interesting that WAR is the only stat that matters until it doesn't favor your guy then you leave it off completely Now it is quality starts, which is the weakest of the metrics he uses, that is the one that matters. Good point on innings pitched which favor Wheeler not Buehler, but if you omit WAR and leave Wheeler off the list, you can make an argument for your guy. You have 4 guys that are really close, but in the end it is Zach Wheeler who is the most deserving of the Cy Young.

KhalDrogo · 10-03-2021, 09:32 PM

I’d use WAR if it made any sense to use for pitchers.

Wheeler also isn’t in the conversation. Won’t finish top 3. Guaranteed.

calculusdork · 10-03-2021, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

WAR
Wheeler 7.6
Buehler 6.5
Scherzer 6.0
Burnes 5.6

FIP
Burnes 1.63
Wheeler 2.58
Scherzer 2.97
Buehler 3.23

ERA
Burnes 2.43
Scherzer 2.46
Buehler 2.47
Wheeler 2.78

SO
Wheeler 247
Scherzer 236
Burnes 234
Buehler 212

WHIP
Scherzer 0.86
Burnes 0.94
Buehler 0.97
Wheeler 1.008

Wins
Buehler 15 (16 if the Dodgers hold on)
Scherzer 15
Wheeler 14
Burnes 11

IP
Wheeler 213.1
Buehler 207.2
Scherzer 179.1
Burnes 167

QS
Buehler 27
Wheeler 20
Scherzer 18
Burnes 18

I find it interesting that WAR is the only stat that matters until it doesn't favor your guy then you leave it off completely Now it is quality starts, which is the weakest of the metrics he uses, that is the one that matters. Good point on innings pitched which favor Wheeler not Buehler, but if you omit WAR and leave Wheeler off the list, you can make an argument for your guy. You have 4 guys that are really close, but in the end it is Zach Wheeler who is the most deserving of the Cy Young.

Unless we use fWAR ......

rman112 · 10-03-2021, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

WAR
Wheeler 7.6
Buehler 6.5
Scherzer 6.0
Burnes 5.6

FIP
Burnes 1.63
Wheeler 2.58
Scherzer 2.97
Buehler 3.23

ERA
Burnes 2.43
Scherzer 2.46
Buehler 2.47
Wheeler 2.78

SO
Wheeler 247
Scherzer 236
Burnes 234
Buehler 212

WHIP
Scherzer 0.86
Burnes 0.94
Buehler 0.97
Wheeler 1.008

Wins
Buehler 15 (16 if the Dodgers hold on)
Scherzer 15
Wheeler 14
Burnes 11

IP
Wheeler 213.1
Buehler 207.2
Scherzer 179.1
Burnes 167

QS
Buehler 27
Wheeler 20
Scherzer 18
Burnes 18

I find it interesting that WAR is the only stat that matters until it doesn't favor your guy then you leave it off completely Now it is quality starts, which is the weakest of the metrics he uses, that is the one that matters. Good point on innings pitched which favor Wheeler not Buehler, but if you omit WAR and leave Wheeler off the list, you can make an argument for your guy. You have 4 guys that are really close, but in the end it is Zach Wheeler who is the most deserving of the Cy Young.

It doesn't feel like anyone really cares about pitching WAR.

KhalDrogo · 10-03-2021, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

It doesn't feel like anyone really cares about pitching WAR.

Why should we use a metric where Nathan Eovaldi is the Fangraphs AL leader?

rman112 · 10-03-2021, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Unless we use fWAR ......

And therein lies the problem with WAR.

And if you use that alone, you end up with a guy that would throw the fewest innings of any Cy Young winning starter - who has a similar ERA to the other candidates.

pspa123 · 10-03-2021, 10:13 PM

Buehler. The quality starts edge is huge.

rats60 · 10-03-2021, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Unless we use fWAR ......

If you use fWAR it is a toss up between Wheeler and Burnes and Buehler and Scherzer aren't even in the conversation.

rman112 · 10-03-2021, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

If you use fWAR it is a toss up between Wheeler and Burnes and Buehler and Scherzer aren't even in the conversation.

Can you explain why WAR should be the most important metric to evaluate a pitcher's results? If bRef WAR, why that one? If FG war, why that one?

rwperu34 · 10-03-2021, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

NL officially the weirdest race ever. Buehler, once a lock and then suddenly not a lock, holds the NL race in his hands, on the final day of the season. If there is any justice, all voters have waited until tomorrow to vote.

They should check the postmark. Anything before Oct 4, 2021 and you lose your credential.

rman112 · 10-03-2021, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

They should check the postmark. Anything before Oct 4, 2021 and you lose your credential.

"Buehler! Buehler!" (chanting and rioting)

rwperu34 · 10-03-2021, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

In my opinion, judging a pitcher's results for the year is pretty simple.

1. How many runs did he give up? This is the most important thing.

2. How much did he pitch?

Then you have the secondary stuff like strikeouts, record, WHIP, and everything else.

I think the most deserving are:

1. Buehler
2. Wheeler
3. Scherzer

This it the crux of tangotiger's formula. Wins and K can make up for some run prevention though. Thankfully the best pitchers at preventing runs also tend to win a lot of games and K a lot of batters. He's got Buehler and Ray as the favorites.

rman112 · 10-03-2021, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This it the crux of tangotiger's formula. Wins and K can make up for some run prevention though. Thankfully the best pitchers at preventing runs also tend to win a lot of games and K a lot of batters. He's got Buehler and Ray as the favorites.

Yeah, that's the way I would go as well.

Ray's got the ERA, the innings, even the K's. And the lack of wins doesn't accurately portray his season (tons of well-pitched ND's). I don't see how Ray's Yankee loss can upend any of that - especially considering how Cole finished up.

JWBlue · 10-03-2021, 11:50 PM

Ray, Buehler. Urias a dark horse.

KhalDrogo · 10-04-2021, 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Can you explain why WAR should be the most important metric to evaluate a pitcher's results? If bRef WAR, why that one? If FG war, why that one?

I’m looking forward to his answer of this one.

10-03-2021, 05:48 PM	#776
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,426	This isn’t an award for who struck out the most or had the lowest WHIP. There’s one pitcher who sans a few starts in September, did it the best from start to finish. We saw this month that as the innings ticked up, everyone struggled. So yeah, big deal when one guy threw 28 and 40 innings more than the other two. __________________ I love PSA!

10-03-2021, 06:21 PM	#781
jdandns Member Join Date: May 2015 Location: Southern California Posts: 23,851	When will the final Predictor results be known? __________________ Aw, we already remembered it plenty enough, anyhow.

10-03-2021, 09:32 PM	#787
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,426	I’d use WAR if it made any sense to use for pitchers. Wheeler also isn’t in the conversation. Won’t finish top 3. Guaranteed. __________________ I love PSA!

10-03-2021, 10:13 PM	#792
pspa123 Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 3,767	Buehler. The quality starts edge is huge. __________________ "We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity." Opening narration, The Outer Limits.

10-03-2021, 08:57 PM	#784
Wolverine Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 232	Ohtani for sure. What he did this year was historic. Nobody else has done what he's done. It was so historic he should also get rookie of the year.

10-03-2021, 09:28 PM	#786
rats60 Member Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,126	WAR Wheeler 7.6 Buehler 6.5 Scherzer 6.0 Burnes 5.6 FIP Burnes 1.63 Wheeler 2.58 Scherzer 2.97 Buehler 3.23 ERA Burnes 2.43 Scherzer 2.46 Buehler 2.47 Wheeler 2.78 SO Wheeler 247 Scherzer 236 Burnes 234 Buehler 212 WHIP Scherzer 0.86 Burnes 0.94 Buehler 0.97 Wheeler 1.008 Wins Buehler 15 (16 if the Dodgers hold on) Scherzer 15 Wheeler 14 Burnes 11 IP Wheeler 213.1 Buehler 207.2 Scherzer 179.1 Burnes 167 QS Buehler 27 Wheeler 20 Scherzer 18 Burnes 18 I find it interesting that WAR is the only stat that matters until it doesn't favor your guy then you leave it off completely Now it is quality starts, which is the weakest of the metrics he uses, that is the one that matters. Good point on innings pitched which favor Wheeler not Buehler, but if you omit WAR and leave Wheeler off the list, you can make an argument for your guy. You have 4 guys that are really close, but in the end it is Zach Wheeler who is the most deserving of the Cy Young.

10-03-2021, 11:50 PM	#799
JWBlue Member Join Date: Sep 2014 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 10,172	Ray, Buehler. Urias a dark horse.