✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

Nobody cares about what I am about to type, but here it is.

I have written this here before but not to this level of detail. This was a journey with Shohei that I started in back in December. I decided that he was my guy (he still very much is). I never intended to sell this, as I never intended/expected/desired it to be worth what it is, but that value has gone to place that I have had to reckon with.

The answer to the question of if I am tapping out is sort of, because if I don't do something like this it would be poor stewardship of a golden goose for my family.

Here are some of the prices I paid along the way, and the PSA APR is today:

Bowman $25 / $286
Bowman Chrome $51.01 / $1017.78
Bowman's Best $30.31 / $211.57
Finest $25 / $316.42

It is like this for 59 cards.

It has been the equivalent of catching lightning in a bottle.

Now add two /10 Dynasty's for less $900 each that are a PSA 9 & 10 - pop 1's. A pop 3 /25 auto for $950 and two additional POP 1 auto's /99 and unnumbered for less than $500 each.

I have always been in disbelief with people's greed in shows like Deal or No Deal. I had to play real life deal or no deal because my PC increased in value 12x-14x in six months.

..if he was 22 and just getting started, I wouldn't sell.

..if we was 32 and almost to the end of his career, I wouldn't sell.

He's 27, coming off an injury, having a season of all seasons, in a year where the current MLB contract expires.

Pretty much regardless of where it finishes, it will be more money that we will have ever had in the bank - after taxes, after tithing, after vacation savings, and after replenishing the card fund. If the estimate I got from the auction house is right, it could be the equivalent to my annual salary.

So all that said, I am trying to do the right thing and I still have the #1 Basic Set and just today bought 2018 Monty Set #1 PSA 10 and Warm Up Shirt PSA 10 as I look to re-fill my Shohei frame.

I am not planning on going anywhere cause I love this kid!

There you go!

At the end of the day it’s just cardboard with a picture on it. Sell what you want and enjoy it. That’s the beauty of seeing a small investment in cards jump like that. Very happy for you and your family.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NYRE2PECT]

Bases loaded for Sho!

[Rage]

Oh baby!

[NYRE2PECT]

That first called strike was pathetic...changed the at-bat.

[Rage]

Back to the ump show lol

[speedyjg13]

2 abs in 2 innings..awesome!

[Trueblue]

What are all these singles?? He's ruining the XBH ratios. Stop!

[gabriel]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

What are all these singles?? He's ruining the XBH ratios. Stop!

Imagine being so talented that your own fans complain when you hit singles! And don’t worry I know you’re just playing around lol

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

What are all these singles?? He's ruining the XBH ratios. Stop!

Imagine if he starts go middle-left, with power, oh my!!

[Tim]

Just got caught up today and I want to say that I strongly disagree with the advice to not buy 2018 sealed bowman. Go with your gut. If you are all in on ohtani, who cares if no one else is in it? If ohtani is who we think he is and will be, these boxes will be worth a fortune later. Live ohtani rookie bowman chrome autos?!?!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by Tim

Just got caught up today and I want to say that I strongly disagree with the advice to not buy 2018 sealed bowman. Go with your gut. If you are all in on ohtani, who cares if no one else is in it? If ohtani is who we think he is and will be, these boxes will be worth a fortune later. Live ohtani rookie bowman chrome autos?!?!

You can get an Ohtani Bowman pitching auto for the cost of 3-4 boxes. The odds of hitting a Bowman pitching auto are one in 10-15 cases.

There may be a gambling element that gives box prices an illogical lift, but it's tough to argue that boxes are a better investment than just buying a BCA. This is not always the case for sealed, but it appears to be the case here with the Ohtani BCA being the only material draw.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

You can get an Ohtani Bowman pitching auto for the cost of 3-4 boxes. The odds of hitting a Bowman pitching auto are one in 10-15 cases.

There may be a gambling element that gives box prices an illogical lift, but it's tough to argue that boxes are a better investment than just buying a BCA. This is not always the case for sealed, but it appears to be the case here with the Ohtani BCA being the only material draw.

And the Ohtani auto will appreciate more than the box if the reason the box goes up is because of Ohtani. The only reason to buy the box over Ohtani if you're trying to maximize your ROI is to hedge by having a fallback on whoever else is in that product

[shootit]

are ohtani pullable and live in the 2018 bowman mega boxes?

[YayNJ]

this thread as an absolute doozy at certain points

people had complete written the poor fella off

it wasn't that long ago you could pick up lots of his RC's for pennies lol

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by shootit

are ohtani pullable and live in the 2018 bowman mega boxes?

Redemption only (is expired) and extremely rare. All redeemed copies were also beat up. They did have a rainbow foil like shimmer to them though. Rare cards, but very niche.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by BBases31

And the Ohtani auto will appreciate more than the box if the reason the box goes up is because of Ohtani. The only reason to buy the box over Ohtani if you're trying to maximize your ROI is to hedge by having a fallback on whoever else is in that product

2011 Mike trout raw base were how much pre injury?
2011 topps value boxes that contain 5 retail packs and 1 bowman chrome hobby pack (admittedly that one pack is worth $100) were selling briskly for 2500 pre injury.

I'm a sealed box collector and you can't analyze using statistics. The gambling element is always underestimated.

[cardguy14]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

What are all these singles?? He's ruining the XBH ratios. Stop!

Originally Posted by shootit

are ohtani pullable and live in the 2018 bowman mega boxes?

Are the regular 2018 Bowman Chrome Ohtani auto (hitting version) live or redemption?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by Tim

2011 Mike trout raw base were how much pre injury?

2011 topps value boxes that contain 5 retail packs and 1 bowman chrome hobby pack (admittedly that one pack is worth $100) were selling briskly for 2500 pre injury.



I'm a sealed box collector and you can't analyze using statistics. The gambling element is always underestimated.

I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. The trout base cards being worth that much is what drove the prices higher. It is a reasonable gamble to expect a specific base card, and a longshot at a parallel. Here, the only thing worth betting on is having the longshot for a BCA. Ohtani base is still just a few bucks a piece and is not expected to be an iconic rookie like any of the 175s.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by cardguy14

Are the regular 2018 Bowman Chrome Ohtani auto (hitting version) live or redemption?

Batting is 100% redemption. Only live cards are the hobby pitching BCA and retail pitching green BCA.

[cardguy14]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Batting is 100% redemption. Only live cards are the hobby pitching BCA and retail pitching green BCA.

Thanks! Last question, is the 2018 chrome ohtani autos live or redemption?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by cardguy14

Thanks! Last question, is the 2018 chrome ohtani autos live or redemption?

Base was live and some of the rarest colors (I know orange) were redemptions.

[cardguy14]

Ok thanks! Knowing all of this info now, I feel like Bowman will great too hold onto now, with that being his only live rookie auto that is not redemption, besides Topps Chrome Base. Very happy with the decision to buy 3 Jumbo Hobby Boxes.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by cardguy14

Ok thanks! Knowing all of this info now, I feel like Bowman will great too hold onto now, with that being his only live rookie auto that is not redemption, besides Topps Chrome Base. Very happy with the decision to buy 3 Jumbo Hobby Boxes.

How does it make it better knowing that some of the color autos were redemptions and the super has been pulled? The chase of a base auto or most common colors is going to drive box prices? I know they'll appreciate regardless, but that's gotta dampen the normal price curve for unopened wax

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. The trout base cards being worth that much is what drove the prices higher. It is a reasonable gamble to expect a specific base card, and a longshot at a parallel. Here, the only thing worth betting on is having the longshot for a BCA. Ohtani base is still just a few bucks a piece and is not expected to be an iconic rookie like any of the 175s.

The point is the sealed product goes for way more than it should compared to what the chase or rookie card goes for (in the example I gave).

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

How does it make it better knowing that some of the color autos were redemptions and the super has been pulled? The chase of a base auto or most common colors is going to drive box prices? I know they'll appreciate regardless, but that's gotta dampen the normal price curve for unopened wax

When he asked about chrome redemptions, he meant Topps chrome. Bowman pitching is all live.

Still, I am more in your camp. 3-4x the price of a box to hit exactly what you're looking for...yeah... (unless you're under illusion to hit a blue/gold/orange/red). Remember, there is no refractor /499 here .