HOF Pace Tracker

[Silent George]

I've posted about this before, but as a HOF collector, and a data analyst, I built a system to track what players are close to a HOF career. I update this 10 times a season (approx every 16 games) and today is the day, and I thought I'd post it here for anyone interested.

The methodology is that I took every HOF elected as a player who had a normal MLB career (so not Monte Irvin, Satchel Paige) and I made an age based amalgam of what a hall of famer looks like. I then took the 33% as a pretty safe "This player has had enough of a career that there will be a debate," distributed it by age, and tracked it to todays players.

"It" is Fangraphs War, which is currently clearly better than Baseball Reference WAR. End of discussion. The 33% Hall of famer has 52.5 career WAR. So they are significantly better than Harold Baines, but not in the Babe Ruth conversation (and for the record, have more career WAR than Sandy Koufax).

This is in no way an argument that these players will get in. Or that the methodology is perfect. Or that your "eyes" and "guy" are wrong. And it's not saying the it's the Hall of WAR, and it doesn't know who has beaten their wife or been suspended for Roids, and it really doesn't care what you think of WAR, because it's creator knows it's a pretty crappy stat, but also pretty much the best we have for measuring everything across baseball.

30-50 active players a year make the Hall of Fame eventually, and that number only grows. I made it just to make it easier to identify who that 30-50 might be for my own PC. You can burn it, or turn it into the FBI, or cancel me, or whatever if you'd like.

Players listed are the ones within 2 years of the 33% HOF Alamgam. Meaning if a player is 26 and listed as a (-2) it means they've hit the WAR threshold of a 24 year old. I use 2 years to make sure no one sneaks up on me. Players with big years can advance quickly. Players with a (*) have already made it to the WAR limit. I'll put a % next to them to show their actual percentile against real hall of famers at their age, not the amalgam (I track a lot of things).

Also: I have no idea how to track closers. I think about this every day.

No position adjustments. The point is to cast a wide net, not specifically come up with who is worthy.

I'm not making any declaration about any player. I just came up with a personal system for tracking, and let the math play out as it does. You do not have to choose to savage me for "thinking" Bryce Harper is a HOF. It's just a calculation. It's nothing personal towards you or your favorite or least favorite player.

I can say all that and know I'll still get attacked. Oh well. I'll add updates every 16 games if people are interested.

Players:

Age 20:
Franco, Wander (-2)
Age 21:
Patino, Luis (-2)
Weathers, Ryan (-2)
Age 22:
Gimenez, Andres (-2)
Garcia, Deivi (-2)
Sanchez, Sixto (-2)
Crochet, Gerrit (-2)
Carlson, Dylan (-2)
Baddoo, Akil (-2)
Guerrero Jr., Vlad (0)
Tatis Jr., Fernando (+2)
Soto, Juan (+3)
Age 23:
Robert, Luis (-2)
Anderson, Ian (-2)
Rogers, Trevor (-2)
Soroka, Mike (-1)
Bichette, Bo (-1)
Acuna Jr., Ronald (+2)
Age 24:
Arraez, Luis (-2)
Grisham, Trent (-2)
Alvarez, Yordan (-2)
Urias, Julio (-1)
Torres, Gleyber (-1)
Devers, Rafael (0)
Albies, Ozzie (+1)
Age 25:
Keller, Brad (-2)
Adames, Willy (-2)
Flaherty, Jack (-2)
Bellinger, Cody (0)
Age 26:
Ohtani, Shohei (-2)
Buehler, Walker (-2)
Moncada, Yoan (-1)
Bieber, Shane (-1)
Marquez, German (-1)
Correa, Carlos (+1)
Age 27:
Marte, Ketel (-2)
Olson, Matt (-2)
Seager, Cory (-1)
Bregman, Alex (0)
Lindor, Francisco (+2)
Age 28:
Chapman, Matt (-2)
Syndergaard, Noah (-2)
Story, Trevor (-2)
Turner, Trea (-1)
Nola, Aaron (-1)
Bogaerts, Xander (+1)
Ramirez, Jose (+1)
Machado, Manny (+3)
Harper, Bryce (+3)
Betts, Mooke (+5)
Age 29:
Judge, Aaron (-2)
Bryant, Kris (0)
Yelich, Christian (+1)
Trout, Mike (*) 98%
Age 30:
Cole, Gerrit (0)
Arenado, Nolan (0)
Age 31:
Rizzo, Anthony (-2)
Bumgarner, Madison (-2)
Heyward, Jason (-1)
Rendon, Anthony (-1)
Altuve, Jose (0)
Stanton, Giancarlo (+1)
Freeman, Freddie (+1)
Age 32:
Grandal, Tasmani (-2)
Strasburg, Stephen (-1)
Sale, Chris (+1)
Age 33:
Upton, Justin (-2)
DeGrom, Jacob (-2)
Goldschmidt, Paul (0)
Kershaw, Clayton (*) 84%
Age 34:
McCutchen, Andrew (+4)
Posey, Buster (*) 55%
Age 35:
Price, David (-2)
Donaldson, Josh (-2)
Longoria, Evan (*) 44%
Age 36:
Scherzer, Max (*) 59%
Age 37:
Votto, Joey (*) 47%
Greinke, Zack (*) 60%
Age 38:
Molina, Yadier (*) 40%
Cano, Robinson (*) 46%
Cabrera, Miguel (*) 69%
Verlander, Justin (*) 74%
Age 41ish:
Pujols, Albert (*) 85%

There you go, see you in 16 games, or never again.

[cmess1942]

Just curious... where did the 30-50 active players in an average year make the HOF come from? Seems a little high to me, but I've never done any research into the topic. You have obviously done far more research, so wanted to get your thoughts.

[NCWolf]

I think this is pretty cool even though I don’t really understand it!

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by cmess1942

Just curious... where did the 30-50 active players in an average year make the HOF come from? Seems a little high to me, but I've never done any research into the topic. You have obviously done far more research, so wanted to get your thoughts.

https://www.secsports.com/article/30...wn-comparisons

Here's just one article on it, remembering that the numbers can only go up, and with the vets committee, they almost certainly will. Players like Ted Simmons didn't even get 5% of the vote. 30 years pass, and all of a sudden he's an additional tally for 20 years.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by NCWolf

I think this is pretty cool even though I don’t really understand it!

This sums up my feelings on women.

[Peties Army]

Originally Posted by cmess1942

Just curious... where did the 30-50 active players in an average year make the HOF come from? Seems a little high to me, but I've never done any research into the topic. You have obviously done far more research, so wanted to get your thoughts.

General theories there is right around 40 at any given time.

Pujols, Trout, kershaw, verlander, Molina, scherzer, Cabera, greinke. That’s 8 so basically 1/5 of the list. I think Chapman probably gets in.

[calculusdork]

Love this!

Recommendation: Bold all the + and - figures, and color-code them something like green (for +), red (for -), and black (default, for 0), similar to what I do with the CY Predictor. Makes the data easier to read.

[bdejong1]

Thank you for all the time you've put in to share this data. I enjoyed it and look forward to seeing data over each 16 games

[NYRE2PECT]

Nice job, OP.

I don't work in data, but every profile I have ever taken says that I should have.

I like CalculusDork's recommendation for an easy color visual of the ratings.

[BonVoyage]

So if I'm understanding this correctly, there are 6 players <28 essentially ahead of schedule from a WAR HOF standpoint: Tatis, Soto, Acuna, Albies, Correa, Lindor. Is that one way to interpret the numbers?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Silent George

I can say all that and know I'll still get attacked.

Lol you can't worry about that on here. Anyone who is "attacking" you is doing it because this stuff is flying way over their head. Why should you care what someone thinks who is attacking you because they literally don't grasp what you're saying? If someone is trying to tell me that 2+2=5, there's not an ounce of care in the world for anything coming out of that person's mouth

Good stuff, keep it coming

[discostu]

Originally Posted by Peties Army

General theories there is right around 40 at any given time.

Pujols, Trout, kershaw, verlander, Molina, scherzer, Cabera, greinke. That’s 8 so basically 1/5 of the list. I think Chapman probably gets in.

Aroldis Chapman? Not at this rate, he's going to really need to turn it on for another 5+ years to get into the discussion (and to compensate for whatever transgressions).

Matt Chapman? Way too early.

[nsdikin]

Nice work and I would be interested in seeing this again. Seems directionally correct.

[Peties Army]

Originally Posted by discostu

Aroldis Chapman? Not at this rate, he's going to really need to turn it on for another 5+ years to get into the discussion (and to compensate for whatever transgressions).

Either way the point still remains there are a lot of guys playing

[discostu]

Originally Posted by Peties Army

Either way the point still remains there are a lot of guys playing

Absolutely.

I am certain that any of us can point to a dozen players from our childhood that we thought were going to make it to Cooperstown.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

So if I'm understanding this correctly, there are 6 players <28 essentially ahead of schedule from a WAR HOF standpoint: Tatis, Soto, Acuna, Albies, Correa, Lindor. Is that one way to interpret the numbers?

Close. I have a complicated answer, but the easiest is to think of it as a range.

If a 28 Year old has a -2, that means they have over enough war for a 26 year old, but less than a 27 year old.

Thus there are 0s on the list that, if the season ended today, are between 0 and 1 years ahead of pace for the hall. Does that make sense?

If a 30 year old HOF typically has 30 WAR, a 31 year old 35 WAR, and a 32 year old 40 WAR, then a 30 year old player with 37 WAR would be a +1. He is at least 1 year ahead of HOF pace, but less than 2.

We're just over halfway through the season. 4 updates of this left. so we will see -1s become 0s and so on. And then when you consider 2020 was a killer for everyone, it makes you tend to take every player a bit more seriously for where they'd actually rank.

[pewe]

How does a players position effect (or not) the 33% target? How does source of WAR (offensive vs defensive) effect the target?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cmess1942]

Originally Posted by Silent George

https://www.secsports.com/article/30...wn-comparisons

Here's just one article on it, remembering that the numbers can only go up, and with the vets committee, they almost certainly will. Players like Ted Simmons didn't even get 5% of the vote. 30 years pass, and all of a sudden he's an additional tally for 20 years.

Thanks for sharing!

[Biohazarddfl]

Great job and thanks for sharing.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by Peties Army

General theories there is right around 40 at any given time.

Pujols, Trout, kershaw, verlander, Molina, scherzer, Cabera, greinke. That’s 8 so basically 1/5 of the list. I think Chapman probably gets in.

I'd put Chapman at 0%

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by pewe

How does a players position effect (or not) the 33% target? How does source of WAR (offensive vs defensive) effect the target?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

for my list, not at all in the slightest, except that I don't use oWAR for pitchers because it would take too long to combine for minimal results.

In reality position's matter a great deal, of course - as does the impact of dWAR. dWAR isn't nearly as trustworthy as we'd like, but historically the hall has ignored defense WAYYY too much.

Positionality is a big deal, but in analysis like this doesn't matter - i'm looking for anyone close. I just want people on the RADAR. I can then independently judge what their chances are on a case by case basis. I decided going to positions would be too much work (what is Ernie Banks? everyone thinks of him as a SS, but he played more games at 1B.) and would dilute the pool too much. 33% of a 3B, for example, is way too high at an underrepresented position - or is it very low because it doesn't have a lot of the 120 WAR guys like you'll find elsewhere?

And the reason I'm a bit laissez faire about all of this is because HOF voters are a screwy bunch. You try guessing how they are going to vote. The first EVER unanimous choice is...a closer? Vlad got in on the 2nd ballot - over 93% of the vote - with 54.5 WAR? Meanwhile Brian Giles got 0 votes. None. Zilch. Zero. He had 54.8 WAR. Shouldn't those results maybe have been a bit closer?

And then we have the now seemingly deciding factor on players. The morality clause. Vizquel, and his piddling 42.5 WAR were climbing towards hall induction. Then his domestic abuse allegations came out. Now his numbers are dropping. But LOOK AT THE BALLOTS AND SEE HOW MANY PEOPLE DROPPED VIZQUEL BUT KEPT VOTING FOR OTHERS WITH ALLEGATIONS. Maybe you just can't beat up a woman recently? Maybe others were just so good they can beat up a woman and still be worthy?

And should I subtract for conservative view points? Everyone seemed happy with Mariano Rivera until it was revealed that the devout catholic happened to be conservative. Rivera said he "respects" Donald Trump. Think he gets 100% of the vote after that?

So it's super hard to predict what current star athlete might join Breitbart, or post a bad meme in the future so I can start knocking off points.

What I do know is that, regardless of this current madness, eventually the Hall gets everyone in. It might take until the freaking 80s to figure out Johnny Mize is hall of fame worthy, but they keep voting and voting and voting and someday enough time has past that we will allow players like Schilling to step to the pedestal and join those seen morally fit to be in the Hall, like Ty Cobb, who famously almost killed a black guy for trying to shake his hand - or Rogers Hornsby, KKK member - or Kirby Puckett, serial wife beater. Bobby Cox, Roberto Alomar, 2 time DUI Tony LaRussa, crazy Ed Delhanty, Tom Yawkey, the last owner to integrate who famously wrote the letter about how MLB shouldn't integrate - I mean the list goes on and on and on, all hall of famers!

So I give up on that crap. History tells us someday people won't feel offended by the steroid era anymore, so someday the roiders will get in. Someday Schilling will get in. Someday accused abusers will probably get in, and by God someday maybe Brian Giles gets a single vote.

[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by discostu

Absolutely.

I am certain that any of us can point to a dozen players from our childhood that we thought were going to make it to Cooperstown.

True. Who knows if people like Tatis, Soto, Acuna, Vlad Jr., etc...continue being amazing or become something else?

Guys who from the 80s/90s we thought would be in but roids killed their HOF candidacy:

Bonds
Clemens
McGwire
Sosa
ARod
Palmeiro
Gonzalez

Guys we thought would be in, but injuries or other stuff derailed their HOF candidacy:

Bo Jackson
Eric Davis
Daryl Strawberry
Doc Gooden
Jose Canseco* (Can go above as well, but had he played another 2 years before being blackballed by MLB, he probably lands at 500 homers)
Will Clark
David Cone
Mo Vaughn
Fred McGriff

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf

True. Who knows if people like Tatis, Soto, Acuna, Vlad Jr., etc...continue being amazing or become something else?

Guys who from the 80s/90s we thought would be in but roids killed their HOF candidacy:

Bonds
Clemens
McGwire
Sosa
ARod
Palmeiro
Gonzalez

Guys we thought would be in, but injuries or other stuff derailed their HOF candidacy:

Bo Jackson
Eric Davis
Daryl Strawberry
Doc Gooden
Jose Canseco* (Can go above as well, but had he played another 2 years before being blackballed by MLB, he probably lands at 500 homers)
Will Clark
David Cone
Mo Vaughn
Fred McGriff

Cone and McGriff will go in. At least McGriff. Cone doesn’t look good in that old rape story. That won’t help Him.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Nice job here, love these analytics.

[DaBaddestHic]

This is really cool and I'd love to see updates as time goes on.

Also, this is the first time I've realized that WAR is an accumulating stat. This whole time I thought it was averaged over someone's career like BA or OPS. Which doesn't make sense given what WAR stands for, but FFS, how did it take me this long to figure this out?