First Buzz: 2020-21 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League

[Cpdjoe77]

Hobby box just auctioned off at $356 on eBay


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[reddragonthe]

$425 on BO. It's going lower. It HAS to. This is equivalent to a $100 blaster. And that sounds crazy to all of us. We just haven't re-calibrated prices on soccer yet. Singles have cratered - base are down 70% from release prices already. They always drop - but this much this fast is unique (even more than what Prizm EPL dropped by). Always a delayed reaction from wax, but I'll be super surprised if these aren't below 300 within 2 weeks. And that's STILL too much.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

$425 on BO. It's going lower. It HAS to. This is equivalent to a $100 blaster. And that sounds crazy to all of us. We just haven't re-calibrated prices on soccer yet. Singles have cratered - base are down 70% from release prices already. They always drop - but this much this fast is unique (even more than what Prizm EPL dropped by). Always a delayed reaction from wax, but I'll be super surprised if these aren't below 300 within 2 weeks. And that's STILL too much.

I get what you are saying and I (partly) agree. But why can't blasters go up and find some equilibrium there? Even with this much production, I can't see Chrome boxes at 250.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I get what you are saying and I (partly) agree. But why can't blasters go up and find some equilibrium there? Even with this much production, I can't see Chrome boxes at 250.

Sure. I don't know that you'll see major retailers there of course (a bit more of an ability to delay decreases)... and we'll likely see support at $300 just because it SEEMS cheap on ebay. But these singles are cheap.

[anusinha]

If the singles keep getting cheaper, there is no support for the either the blasters or the hobby to maintain their pricing.

[Yanks23]

There is still a ton of support of wholesale buys of cases at $350 a box on dealernet. I have been waiting for the decline but it is not happening yet. It may happen over the next few weeks / month with all the new products coming out. Blasters are down to $45 or less so that is already a decent buy compared to hobby.

[Stan101]

It is the perfect timing to buy in my opinion, it may drop in the upcoming weeks but once the season starts, especially if the rookies are doing well, i predict an uptrend for boxes/singles...we'll see!

[yiguiri2002]

Even with prices falling, just look at the value from base and inserts on a Hobby box. It's over 100 bucks right now. Just the added value of the refractors and auto should create a resistance at 300 - unless something major happens.

[PSA2Pac]

Found 5 blasters (1 at WM and 4 at Target) on fresh restocks this morning. Super hyped, I'll be ripping with my sons this weekend.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Even with prices falling, just look at the value from base and inserts on a Hobby box. It's over 100 bucks right now. Just the added value of the refractors and auto should create a resistance at 300 - unless something major happens.

I'm (quite a bit) lower than that for base and inserts.

Parallels/autos are effectively the same "value" as the base per box in my calculations (its close enough), so value is probably 2x what you think base is. If you think there is $100 in base then $300 would be "normal" 1.5x wax prices that we saw before everything got crazy where it was upwards of 4x. My estimate has us closer to 3-4x now depending on if you look at the ebay price or the retail offerings.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I'm (quite a bit) lower than that for base and inserts.

Parallels/autos are effectively the same "value" as the base per box in my calculations (its close enough), so value is probably 2x what you think base is. If you think there is $100 in base then $300 would be "normal" 1.5x wax prices that we saw before everything got crazy where it was upwards of 4x. My estimate has us closer to 3-4x now depending on if you look at the ebay price or the retail offerings.

Where you at on base/inserts? I'm thinking mid-term, not right now.

I think parallel/auto gives about the same value as base/inserts. But the thing is, people are willing to get a lower ROI if the potential rewards are higher - which is the case with parallel/autos.

If the average return ends up being around 200 (which I think is completely feasible), with the potential of hitting autos/parallels worth 500, I can't see it going below 300.

[FuriousD82]

Can someone tell me what parallel this is? I thought it was purple bubble, but I don't see that on the spreadsheet. Confused!

[vr23]

Originally Posted by FuriousD82

Can someone tell me what parallel this is? I thought it was purple bubble, but I don't see that on the spreadsheet. Confused!

Blue bubbles

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Where you at on base/inserts? I'm thinking mid-term, not right now.

I think parallel/auto gives about the same value as base/inserts. But the thing is, people are willing to get a lower ROI if the potential rewards are higher - which is the case with parallel/autos.

If the average return ends up being around 200 (which I think is completely feasible), with the potential of hitting autos/parallels worth 500, I can't see it going below 300.

Top 15 is what I track and they are around $90 total right now. You get 6 per player per case roughly - so 50/50 shot at any of those. Puts me at $45 for the top 15. Then I toss in 20% for add'l singles and 10% for inserts. Gets me to around $60 ballpark. That gets me to $120 for a current value.

OBVIOUSLY you can scratch a bit more and do better on the other singles, but at some point you just have to give in. I'm not going to spend a lot of time messing around. You can move in bulk and in team sets ok. But again, you start to run into a cost of time.

[vr23]

All I can say is this product had the chance to be the product of the year for soccer, but Topps Really dropped the ball with their quality control this year, nearly every serial numbered refractor and autographed card in this set has edging issues (top or bottom) that are plaguing the entire product run. An absolute shame!!!

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by anusinha

If the singles keep getting cheaper, there is no support for the either the blasters or the hobby to maintain their pricing.

You're making the mistake of thinking like a rational person

The gamblers who buy into breaks are not thinking rationally.....

[PostBaloney]

Originally Posted by vr23

All I can say is this product had the chance to be the product of the year for soccer, but Topps Really dropped the ball with their quality control this year, nearly every serial numbered refractor and autographed card in this set has edging issues (top or bottom) that are plaguing the entire product run. An absolute shame!!!

They must they hired some QA guys from Panini

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by vr23

All I can say is this product had the chance to be the product of the year for soccer, but Topps Really dropped the ball with their quality control this year, nearly every serial numbered refractor and autographed card in this set has edging issues (top or bottom) that are plaguing the entire product run. An absolute shame!!!

Is this something you read or experienced personally? I see this a lot and I don't know where it's coming from. Of what I opened, for my parallels (probably 100? total)...

1 - has what I would say is consistent with the parallel issue from F1 chrome (the little semi-circle "peel" almost). And it's way less noticeable than it was in F1 chrome. It's an orange adeyemi.

2-4 - somewhat similar placement - line or something that indicates a pack-out process that may have left that kind of mark.

5 - other edge issues that's more than just "typical" usually a rougher cut or gouge-ish mark.

Rest are generally fine. I'm sure they aren't all 10's in the current landscape, but I wouldn't say this release was REMARKABLE to me for that issue.

I had far more SURFACE issues than normal. But tide impacts all ships. So if there are consistent issues, it will be consistent for everyone. The only issue then is our expectation that everything is PSA 9 or PSA 10. Which to me defeats the "purpose" of grading.

Autos I have were all good edge-wise except for 1. Bottom edge on the back. Base one.



EDIT: looking at some of yours I see it - much more than what I had with mine. Which is bizarre. But maybe they addressed some of the flaws mid print with the process?

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

Top 15 is what I track and they are around $90 total right now. You get 6 per player per case roughly - so 50/50 shot at any of those. Puts me at $45 for the top 15. Then I toss in 20% for add'l singles and 10% for inserts. Gets me to around $60 ballpark. That gets me to $120 for a current value.

OBVIOUSLY you can scratch a bit more and do better on the other singles, but at some point you just have to give in. I'm not going to spend a lot of time messing around. You can move in bulk and in team sets ok. But again, you start to run into a cost of time.

Got it. I look at full set sales - last one ended at about 140, I think once prices are stable it should be around 110-120. You get a little over 50% of a base set per box so it should be around 55-60 per box. Add the 5-6 inserts at a little under 10 bucks a piece and there's the 100.

I think it comes to how you look at this. As a collector, I want to build sets so I'll probably value loose singles more than others. If you look for the hits, then over 50% of the base is pretty much worthless.

[tedwilliamsfan]

Hi, I am brand new to Soccer/Futbol cards and I opened my first blaster of this product today. I pulled this Kai Havertz auto (NFT/NFS) and I was wondering how rare it is. I checked eBay and there was only one completed listing (for a damaged copy) and no active listings. Just wondering if there are known short prints in the Auto set? Thanks for any help.

[IMG][/IMG]

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Got it. I look at full set sales - last one ended at about 140, I think once prices are stable it should be around 110-120. You get a little over 50% of a base set per box so it should be around 55-60 per box. Add the 5-6 inserts at a little under 10 bucks a piece and there's the 100.

I think it comes to how you look at this. As a collector, I want to build sets so I'll probably value loose singles more than others. If you look for the hits, then over 50% of the base is pretty much worthless.

Damn! Full sets going at $140? People really are bad at math. Guess I'll be collating some sets tonight.

"oh, you won't buy my Bellingham base for $30? What if I put it in a set and charged you the equivalent of 1.2x $30 for it?"

[k13]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I get what you are saying and I (partly) agree. But why can't blasters go up and find some equilibrium there? Even with this much production, I can't see Chrome boxes at 250.

Because there's no more cheap PSA grading.

[WalterAZ31]

i thought singles of this stuff would command better value, but not exactly

[Cpdjoe77]

Think we’ve entered the age of color/auto or meh


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[YayNJ]

Originally Posted by Cpdjoe77

Think we’ve entered the age of color/auto or meh


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who wants base apart from set collectors?

the rise of the multi-hundred buck graded bass is one of the most obscene, ridiculous and toxic events in hobby history.