**The Perennial JUAN SOTO Thread!**

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I disagree that it takes a long time to recover.

To illustrate, this graphical representation showed the upward spikes happened quickly and the downward turn happened more slowly.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=8398

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Moral of the story: if you see a card that there aren't many of, just grab a copy first and worry about getting the condition you want later.

Arthur

Had to go back a few pages to quote this.

[NoWhammys2021]

Anyone else already mention the flood of graded cards ? Sure that will further drive down prices...


Tower, did you grab that Holiday ?




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[jw8]

Just got a 2019 sapphire psa 10 back from PSA and was shocked when I saw the comps...$450 is a 1/5th of what I sold my last one for in April...crazy deals out there imo

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[JohnnyHatesJazz]

I wanted him to turn on that 90 mph cheese that he swung and missed on. That pitch was begging to be clobbered.


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[tconte]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I wanted him to turn on that 90 mph cheese that he swung and missed on. That pitch was begging to be clobbered.


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Hopefully soon!

I guess it could have been worse. I could have kept all my Victor Robles
cards when he was hot. Thankfully, I sold at the right time and a couple
sellers on myslabs countered my decent offers when I tried to buy more
during his hot spring training. Yes, I am a dope!

[djdevon]

Thanks for the memories Juan! It was fun while it lasted.

[Soxfanguy]

Maybe sticky stuff being cracked down on will help?

Unless he was using it himself

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by djdevon

Thanks for the memories Juan! It was fun while it lasted.

this.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by towerymt

Had to go back a few pages to quote this.

[seanbros55]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I'm not worried.

I am not uncertain.

[REGGIE206]

Originally Posted by towerymt

Had to go back a few pages to quote this.

That is awesome! Congrats!

I also have one of the /20 cards:

[towerymt]

^ I knew you had one but didn't know it was graded by PSA. Well, that's all 2 of the PSA graded copies.

[Mymoneypls]

Wonder where the bottom is for the US300 and HMT55? Has to be close? US300 selling for $180 and HMT55 for $250 in PSA10

I really can’t see it falling much further the guy has a World championship.


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[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by Mymoneypls

Wonder where the bottom is for the US300 and HMT55? Has to be close? US300 selling for $180 and HMT55 for $250 in PSA10

I really can’t see it falling much further the guy has a World championship.


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They will fall further if performance doesn’t improve. Supply is way too high with these cards if the demand side remains impacted like it is. Much different scenario than low serial numbered cards.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Expectations and perceptions work hand-in-hand. Agree that Soto's expectations coming into the season were otherworldly but the perception that he has completely tanked (which is what his prices have done) isn't accurate. Like you point out, he could end up with 5 WAR and the 10th best hitter and we'd still be looking at falling prices.

Not just because the perception of him is that he was a failure but also because, despite putting up an AS-caliber season, he would be out of contention in the battle for the hobby's attention and money (Vlad, Acuna, Ohtani, Tatis, and Bichette are all ahead of him right now).

You can't be 6th in the young phenom department, no matter what your stats are, and be able to vie for the hobby's dollars. Even if you're batting .300/.400 with 30 HRs, if there are five young studs ahead of you, people are going to be selling your cards in order to purchase those top five.

Like Ricky Bobby said, "If you ain't first, you're last."

Honestly, seems like the best move is to identify who the 5th and 6th players are on that list and buy them with the intention of holding long-term, and doing it again next year. People talk about being worried. I'm literally searching for Soto before anyone else. But I'm also not looking to flip in the next year, so....

Arthur

Arthur,
Vlad and Ohtani cards have sky rocketed in price, Tatis and Acuna seem to be up to flat (compared to spring training) and Soto's cards have fallen off a cliff. It is interesting that you put Bo Bichette above Soto in hobby interest as his cards are also significantly down from spring training. While he is having a good year (all star worthy in my opinion) he is not killing it. So are you buying both Soto and Bichette now as a value play?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Mymoneypls

Wonder where the bottom is for the US300 and HMT55? Has to be close? US300 selling for $180 and HMT55 for $250 in PSA10

I really can’t see it falling much further the guy has a World championship..

US300 PSA 10s are $160 now. They were $220 mid-May even though he was performing the same, pretty wild. You just had people holding on for dear life and reached their breaking point by June I guess. They will go plenty lower by the offseason bottom

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by Geoff G

Shoulder injuries are a mother .. they take awhile to fully heal up. I think it is affecting his ability to get to some pitches still .. I’m not worried one bit though .. swing looks great on pitches he is barreling up ..I have a feeling he is going to have a monster second half.


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Totally agree with this. Lots of people are looking at his advanced metrics in this thread, but the shoulder injury explains everything with him this season. The fact he still has a great OBP and underlying metrics is promising (and reflect how great of a pure hitter he is, especially being banged up), but his card prices won't recover at all until he starts mashing home runs.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

Totally agree with this. Lots of people are looking at his advanced metrics in this thread, but the shoulder injury explains everything with him this season.

The guy is 5th in xwOBA and only .002 behind Acuna in 4th. You just don't understand what the xStats are measuring. It's purely measuring quality of contact, launch angle and exit velocity, and stripping out the luck of where the ball falls. Here's how it works:

Soto hits a ball at 30 degrees and 105 MPH to a spot in the gap that is caught by a diving outfielder. Soto's actual wOBA on that is .000. But the average wOBA on a ball hit at 105 mph and 30 degrees is .600 and Soto's xwOBA on that hit is .600

Player B hits a ball at 30 degrees and 105 MPH that drops in the gap for a double. Player B's actual wOBA from that is .800(example). Player B's xwOBA on that hit is .600

Both players made the exact same quality of contact. They hit the ball equally as hard at the same launch angle. Both players performed the same on that AB. One dropping in and the other not dropping is called batted ball luck(shifting aside, which doesn't even really affect Soto materially).

[monkeymcgee]

The last two times he’s started to improve his power, things regressed after he had to dive back to first base on a pickoff attempt. I’m playing a serious armchair medic here, but knowing how shoulder injuries are (I have a rotator cuff problem from 10+ years back that still hurts like a mofo when I move my arm the wrong way) I think he keeps tweaking it.

You can see it in his fielding as well—he’ll slide instead of dive and has some trouble reaching down.

I’d like to think it’s just bad luck, but I think there’s a physical issue.


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[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The guy is 5th in xwOBA and only .002 behind Acuna in 4th. You just don't understand what the xStats are measuring. It's purely measuring quality of contact, launch angle and exit velocity, and stripping out the luck of where the ball falls. Here's how it works:

Soto hits a ball at 30 degrees and 105 MPH to a spot in the gap that is caught by a diving outfielder. Soto's actual wOBA on that is .000. But the average wOBA on a ball hit at 105 mph and 30 degrees is .600 and Soto's xwOBA on that hit is .600

Player B hits a ball at 30 degrees and 105 MPH that drops in the gap for a double. Player B's actual wOBA from that is .800(example). Player B's xwOBA on that hit is .600

Both players made the exact same quality of contact. They hit the ball equally as hard at the same launch angle. Both players performed the same on that AB. One dropping in and the other not dropping is called batted ball luck(shifting aside, which doesn't even really affect Soto materially).

Ok, so Soto is unlucky. Great. Doesn't change the fact he needs his batted ball luck to normalize and start hitting home runs for his prices to recover.

You're not going to change my mind that a shoulder injury that sidelined him for weeks hasn't affected his performance.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by BBases31

US300 PSA 10s are $160 now. They were $220 mid-May even though he was performing the same, pretty wild. You just had people holding on for dear life and reached their breaking point by June I guess. They will go plenty lower by the offseason bottom

will they hit $50?

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

this.

Eric!!!

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

will they hit $50?

Eric!!!

[BaseballKing]

Have you gone rogue? Hopefully this is all just sarcasm.