**The Perennial JUAN SOTO Thread!**

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by SGC300ier

Those saying they aren't worried are lying.....

Anyone "worried" is dead wrong. He's had tremendously bad batted ball luck. He's #3 in baseball in xwOBA, not far behind Guerrero:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc...oba=on#results

Soto is also 93rd percentile in Outs Above Average this year which is the best advanced defensive metric and the best number he's put up in his career.

But no, this still doesn't mean I think he's good a buy right now or that his cards will be higher by season's end.

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I sold a big Juan before the season started so I wouldn't say i'm worried. I am concerned. He's missing on pitches.

His swinging strike rate is 6.6% this year, considerably lower than his first two seasons and only 0.4% above last year. He is 99th percentile on chase rate out of the zone and has the 2nd best BB/K rate in baseball. Any complaints about plate discipline are nonsense

[tconte]

Originally Posted by Zauron

man his prices sure took a kick in the balls.

I'm looking at stuff from February compared to now.

February, rainbow foil PSA 10 was going for $1700. Now's it's down to $1k

Pink refactors were $1300, now what $900ish

Chrome Update PSA 10's were pushing $500, at minimum $450, now they are $250 a piece

Even the Heritage PSA 10's were going for $120 back then and now are $60.

My nuts are killing me!

[NoWhammys2021]

Here is a time machine for those that are worried...

1 Trip per member and a maximum card carry amount of 5.

What 5 cards are you kicking yourself for buying ?





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[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by Zauron

man his prices sure took a kick in the balls.

I'm looking at stuff from February compared to now.

February, rainbow foil PSA 10 was going for $1700. Now's it's down to $1k

Pink refactors were $1300, now what $900ish

Chrome Update PSA 10's were pushing $500, at minimum $450, now they are $250 a piece

Even the Heritage PSA 10's were going for $120 back then and now are $60.

nom nom nom

Arthur

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Anyone "worried" is dead wrong. He's had tremendously bad batted ball luck. He's #3 in baseball in xwOBA, not far behind Guerrero:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc...oba=on#results

Soto is also 93rd percentile in Outs Above Average this year which is the best advanced defensive metric and the best number he's put up in his career.

But no, this still doesn't mean I think he's good a buy right now or that his cards will be higher by season's end.




His swinging strike rate is 6.6% this year, considerably lower than his first two seasons and only 0.4% above last year. He is 99th percentile on chase rate out of the zone and has the 2nd best BB/K rate in baseball. Any complaints about plate discipline are nonsense

I just trust my eyes and what i'm seeing. He's not consistently barreling the ball on meaty pitches and that's important for a guy like him who's pitched carefully. He's not going to get much to hit.

[rngrdanny22]

I'm not worried.

[tconte]

"I'm not worried"

Translation - We are doomed! or "Time to sell was February"

[SGC300ier]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I just trust my eyes and what i'm seeing. He's not consistently barreling the ball on meaty pitches and that's important for a guy like him who's pitched carefully. He's not going to get much to hit.

No, you're wrong!! He is 75th in balls in the zone that he foul tips with 2 strikes after 8:39 p.m.

Here is where I focus.

Batting Average: .270
HR: 8
RBI: 27 (now 28)

Only 4 doubles?

Not terrible numbers (projecting out for a full season) for most major leaguers, but he is not supposed to be the typical major leaguer.

Will he bounce back and start killing it? I think he will, but I'd still be nervous holding cards I put a ton of money into with a 50% drop at this point.

I know we all turn into collectors when our cards start losing value, but be realistic. If you spent $550 on a chrome psa 10 and now its value is half, even as a "collector" you're not happy about it.

Obviously just my opinion. I PC Willy Adames so feel free to take my opinion with a grain of salt.









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[Rage]

The most telling stat is that even when Juan Soto is "slumping", his OBP is over 0.400, 6th in MLB

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

like that last out there. juan's too stiff to go low and get those pitches. pitchers are now attacking at the knees.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

If you bought couple years ago you’re fine. If you bought couple months you’re worried sick.

And he is playing good but good isn’t enough. It is what it is.


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[pete2345]

If Juan stays healthy he will have great numbers in the end. He shouldn't be linked with Tatis and Acuna they are different types of ball players.

[Rage]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

If you bought couple years ago you’re fine. If you bought couple months you’re worried sick.

And he is playing good but good isn’t enough. It is what it is.

(Nvm)

I bought a couple years ago and a couple months ago, still not worried.

Enjoying the current discount actually

[Neal]

Originally Posted by tconte

My nuts are killing me!

These pretzels are making me thirsty!

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[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

If you bought couple years ago you’re fine. If you bought couple months you’re worried sick.

And he is playing good but good isn’t enough. It is what it is.


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Shouldn't be buying cards if being worried sick is a possible outcome.

[brios8]

the offseason was time to buy Acuna/Vlad
now its time to buy SOTO

just keep buying all.. TATIS Is a good buy everyday

[Geoff G]

Shoulder injuries are a mother .. they take awhile to fully heal up. I think it is affecting his ability to get to some pitches still .. I’m not worried one bit though .. swing looks great on pitches he is barreling up ..I have a feeling he is going to have a monster second half.


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[clocsta2323]

I've been on a Soto feeding frenzy.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by SGC300ier

No, you're wrong!! He is 75th in balls in the zone that he foul tips with 2 strikes after 8:39 p.m.

Here is where I focus.

Batting Average: .270
HR: 8
RBI: 27 (now 28)

Only 4 doubles?

Not terrible numbers (projecting out for a full season) for most major leaguers, but he is not supposed to be the typical major leaguer.

Will he bounce back and start killing it? I think he will, but I'd still be nervous holding cards I put a ton of money into with a 50% drop at this point.

I know we all turn into collectors when our cards start losing value, but be realistic. If you spent $550 on a chrome psa 10 and now its value is half, even as a "collector" you're not happy about it.

Obviously just my opinion. I PC Willy Adames so feel free to take my opinion with a grain of salt.









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Agree with this post. More than a 50% drop on chrome update gems is disturbing.


None of us are "worried" about Soto the player. But in the world of trading cards (see Betts, Bellinger, etc.) if you have one down year it takes a loooooooong time to recover from that. If Soto turns it on the second half of the year his cards will be ok but if it turns out to be a down year in the end, his trading cards are going to stagnate and i for one, while not "worried," will have to lower my expectations significantly and be in this for the long haul instead of the medium haul.

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by Tim

Agree with this post. More than a 50% drop on chrome update gems is disturbing.


None of us are "worried" about Soto the player. But in the world of trading cards (see Betts, Bellinger, etc.) if you have one down year it takes a loooooooong time to recover from that. If Soto turns it on the second half of the year his cards will be ok but if it turns out to be a down year in the end, his trading cards are going to stagnate and i for one, while not "worried," will have to lower my expectations significantly and be in this for the long haul instead of the medium haul.

Soto was THE pump of the offseason. Here and in the press. His cards utterly skyrocketed while he was doing nothing. He would have had to do what Vlad is doing just to simply maintain his US300/HMT55 prices at their peak. I am not surprised by the regression, but I think people are overestimating how much of this decline is based on play versus them coming down from reckless pumping and spending during the offseason.

People got wet with the Ted Williams comps.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Tim

None of us are "worried" about Soto the player. But in the world of trading cards (see Betts, Bellinger, etc.) if you have one down year it takes a loooooooong time to recover from that.

I disagree that it takes a long time to recover. It's completely tied to actual performance. If that player gets back to MVP level again, prices will recover lightning quick. If you're buying at prices that have MVP expectations, well of course prices going to dive if that player is nowhere near an MVP. Prices are going to follow performance, it's pretty simple.

It seems to be missed alot on here that you are buying expectations more than anything. If you bought Soto in the past 6 months, you were paying a price for a top 3 hitter in baseball and MVP contender. It doesn't matter if he still has an excellent season for a 22 year old(call it 5 WAR and 10th best hitter). That's a big step down from expectations and going to lead to a big step down in prices

[BAHoopla]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I disagree that it takes a long time to recover. It's completely tied to actual performance. If that player gets back to MVP level again, prices will recover lightning quick. If you're buying at prices that have MVP expectations, well of course prices going to dive if that player is nowhere near an MVP. Prices are going to follow performance, it's pretty simple.

It seems to be missed alot on here that you are buying expectations more than anything. If you bought Soto in the past 6 months, you were paying a price for a top 3 hitter in baseball and MVP contender. It doesn't matter if he still has an excellent season for a 22 year old(call it 5 WAR and 10th best hitter). That's a big step down from expectations and going to lead to a big step down in prices

Agree with this

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

He would have had to do what Vlad is doing just to simply maintain his US300/HMT55 prices at their peak.

I do wonder what the real ceiling is for those cards. Trout PSA 10 Updates are about $3500 right now with a 5300 pop report. There are 27000 Soto PSA 10s between Update and TCU.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by BBases31

It seems to be missed alot on here that you are buying expectations more than anything. If you bought Soto in the past 6 months, you were paying a price for a top 3 hitter in baseball and MVP contender. It doesn't matter if he still has an excellent season for a 22 year old(call it 5 WAR and 10th best hitter). That's a big step down from expectations and going to lead to a big step down in prices

Expectations and perceptions work hand-in-hand. Agree that Soto's expectations coming into the season were otherworldly but the perception that he has completely tanked (which is what his prices have done) isn't accurate. Like you point out, he could end up with 5 WAR and the 10th best hitter and we'd still be looking at falling prices.

Not just because the perception of him is that he was a failure but also because, despite putting up an AS-caliber season, he would be out of contention in the battle for the hobby's attention and money (Vlad, Acuna, Ohtani, Tatis, and Bichette are all ahead of him right now).

You can't be 6th in the young phenom department, no matter what your stats are, and be able to vie for the hobby's dollars. Even if you're batting .300/.400 with 30 HRs, if there are five young studs ahead of you, people are going to be selling your cards in order to purchase those top five.

Like Ricky Bobby said, "If you ain't first, you're last."

Honestly, seems like the best move is to identify who the 5th and 6th players are on that list and buy them with the intention of holding long-term, and doing it again next year. People talk about being worried. I'm literally searching for Soto before anyone else. But I'm also not looking to flip in the next year, so....

Arthur

[Tim]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

You can't be 6th in the young phenom department, no matter what your stats are, and be able to vie for the hobby's dollars. Even if you're batting .300/.400 with 30 HRs, if there are five young studs ahead of you, people are going to be selling your cards in order to purchase those top five.

Honestly, seems like the best move is to identify who the 5th and 6th players are on that list and buy them with the intention of holding long-term, and doing it again next year. People talk about being worried. I'm literally searching for Soto before anyone else. But I'm also not looking to flip in the next year, so....

Arthur

Another solid post from Arthur.