The Official NBA Playoff Thread—-20/21 Edition

[armoursave]

Didn’t bother reading the in depth analysis on the Knicks....because....what’s the point? They overachieved and will be ducking out after one (or two) more games.

Hawks have enough ammo to hang with the Sixers. Nate has them playing inspired defense which is unthinkable for such a young team. Imagine what he could do with the Bkazers???

I see it going six games with Philly winning assuming Embiid is fully operational. If not then it’s a coin flip.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by armoursave

Didn’t bother reading the in depth analysis on the Knicks....because....what’s the point? They overachieved and will be ducking out after one (or two) more games.

Hawks have enough ammo to hang with the Sixers. Nate has them playing inspired defense which is unthinkable for such a young team. Imagine what he could do with the Bkazers???

I see it going six games with Philly winning assuming Embiid is fully operational. If not then it’s a coin flip.

Even without Embiid I’m not that confident in the Hawks vs the 76ers. Just making the playoffs and winning a first round series is a great step in the right direction. Hopefully they can close out the Knicks Wednesday but I know that arena will be rocking and they will play a lot better than they have.

[gomiamigo]

Hawks don't have the ammo either offense or defense to hang with the 76ers if Embiid is healthy.

76ers are 2nd in Def Rtg and 4th in Opp shoot%, 2nd in steals, blocks and forcing turnovers.
ATL is 21st in DRtg, 21 in ORebs allowed, 29th in forcing turnovers, 24th in steals.

Offense: 76ers are 3rd in FTs, 9th in FG%, 10th in 3pt%, 14th in TS,
ATL is 4th, 15th, 12th and 26th in TS% comparatively.


No Embiid, a totally diff story. 76ers should probably play 4-out with Simmons and Howard rotating inside [and Scott/Paul] with shooters like Tobias, Danny, Seth, Korkmaz, Hill, Shake, and some dribble penetration from Maxey and of course Matisse is a terror on D and hit 2 3s last night. 50-50 series there but I'd have to see what Vegas opens lines at before I made a bet either side.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Hawks don't have the ammo either offense or defense to hang with the 76ers if Embiid is healthy.

76ers are 2nd in Def Rtg and 4th in Opp shoot%, 2nd in steals, blocks and forcing turnovers.
ATL is 21st in DRtg, 21 in ORebs allowed, 29th in forcing turnovers, 24th in steals.

Offense: 76ers are 3rd in FTs, 9th in FG%, 10th in 3pt%, 14th in TS,
ATL is 4th, 15th, 12th and 26th in TS% comparatively.


No Embiid, a totally diff story. 76ers should probably play 4-out with Simmons and Howard rotating inside [and Scott/Paul] with shooters like Tobias, Danny, Seth, Korkmaz, Hill, Shake, and some dribble penetration from Maxey and of course Matisse is a terror on D and hit 2 3s last night. 50-50 series there but I'd have to see what Vegas opens lines at before I made a bet either side.

Hawks had a better offensive rating than Philly this year... 8th vs 13th.


https://i.imgur.com/yMoKWmt.png [click to enlarge]

[gomiamigo]

Nobody gets lionized for shooting 8-22 in a playoff game like Mitchell does, it's collective insanity by the media.

[daeve]

Clint Capela on the Knicks: "They're trying to play tough & push our guys around and talk #@#@#@#@, but we can do that too. We can push guys around too and talk #@#@#@#@ as well and get a win too, so what are you going to do about it? We're coming to your home to win this game again & send you on vacation."

https://streamable.com/5q28e9

top comment from reddit lol

Sheeesh Switzerland ain't neutral no more

love the defensive identity Capela brings to the team, and the toughness he brings doesn't get mentioned as much as it should either

[gomiamigo]

Hawks don't have the ammo against the 76ERS Defense, sorry if that wasn't completely obvious even if I made it fairly clear.

They ain't playing the Pistons or Magic or Wolves next round.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Nobody gets lionized for shooting 8-22 in a playoff game like Mitchell does, it's collective insanity by the media.

People have been doing that with him since he came in the league

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

RJ Barrett is shooting 27% from the floor with no defender within 6 feet

Julius Randle is shooting 14% yes, 14% with no defender within 6 feet.

Over 50% of Julius Randle's shots in this series have either been open (4-6 feet) or wide open (6+ feet) and he's not even shooting 30% from the floor. Almost a 20% drop on wide open shots from the regular season to now. Are the ATL defenders just more scary to look at from a distance?

Real suffocating defense being played by the Hawks . The fact is that all of the Knicks best players (besides Rose) are playing uncharacteristically bad. Doesn't help that the Knicks don't have a true lead ball handler / initiator anyways

Dude, you're such a pathetic hater. Just stop. I know you made your dumb thread about how the Knicks are gonna beat the Hawks because you don't acknowledge them as a team for some reason. You were flat out wrong there and now you're trying to spin zone this into the Knicks losing the series, not the Hawks winning. Seriously, just stop.

Take the L and move on. You're flat out wrong and I can't wait to bump that thread when the Hawks close them out so you can look like the incorrect hater that you are.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Hawks don't have the ammo against the 76ERS Defense, sorry if that wasn't completely obvious even if I made it fairly clear.

They ain't playing the Pistons or Magic or Wolves next round.

they're beating the #3 team defense but they don't have the chops to hang with #2? Ok... I posted the team defense stats today as well.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by daeve

they're beating the #3 team defense but they don't have the chops to hang with #2? Ok... I posted the team defense stats today as well.

Don't try to argue with them. Philly fans (especially the ones on this board) are literally the worst. Even when they're wrong and proven wrong, they'll spin zone and keep fighting you.

All we can do is pray that the team that wasn't supposed to be here and would "maybe make the play in" (their words) somehow takes down the #1 seed.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

People have been doing that with him since he came in the league

You're 100% right and it never made any sense. It was always great to see him come into Philly and shoot 3-18 vs Ben with 5 turnovers and hear what a supposedly 'great' player he was.

[Bulls90s]

Russell Westbrook got angry last night when he was at the free throw line shooting free throws... he didnt like what Dwight Howard did. People pick on Russell... poor guy. He just a fake tough guy.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Dude, you're such a pathetic hater. Just stop. I know you made your dumb thread about how the Knicks are gonna beat the Hawks because you don't acknowledge them as a team for some reason. You were flat out wrong there and now you're trying to spin zone this into the Knicks losing the series, not the Hawks winning. Seriously, just stop.

Take the L and move on. You're flat out wrong and I can't wait to bump that thread when the Hawks close them out so you can look like the incorrect hater that you are.

Ok 2020 person

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Don't try to argue with them. Philly fans (especially the ones on this board) ...Even when they're wrong and proven wrong, they'll spin zone and keep fighting you.

I haven't been proven wrong about anything, I posted actual data about each team's rankings. Did the #Facts hurt your feelings?

It's super-weird that you think a relevant post about my playoff team in the Playoff Thread is somehow 'fighting,' you come off a young teenager that gets triggered easily when s/he hears a differing opinion.

The Hawks won't score as much against the #2 Defense than the league-average Defense in a 7-game series. Anyone who doesn't understand that should log off for a while, or open a stats textbook. Anyone who thinks that's spin should see a therapist.

No Embiid, the Hawks could definitely win. At the right odds, I'd even bet on it. With a healthy Embiid they'd be lucky to win 2 games, which is a great accomplishment for a historically awful team to achieve in one season.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

I haven't been proven wrong about anything, I posted actual data about each team's rankings. Did the #Facts hurt your feelings?

It's super-weird that you think a relevant post about my playoff team in the Playoff Thread is somehow 'fighting,' you come off a young teenager that gets triggered easily when s/he hears a differing opinion.

The Hawks won't score as much against the #2 Defense than the league-average Defense in a 7-game series. Anyone who doesn't understand that should log off for a while, or open a stats textbook. Anyone who thinks that's spin should see a therapist.

No Embiid, the Hawks could definitely win. At the right odds, I'd even bet on it. With a healthy Embiid they'd be lucky to win 2 games, which is a great accomplishment for a historically awful team to achieve in one season.

Notice how I said "them" above, not "him".. There is a group of you Philly fans on here that all have the same or similar takes, not just you specifically.

The Knicks also were not a "league average" defense, so that narrative can be thrown out the window.

Also you just said the word "triggered". i don't think I've ever used it in my life until now, but that's very 2020-2021 of you. For someone who comes off as an old, crochety man compared to my "teenage" self, that's kinda odd.. Have you taken your meds yet today?

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Benjamin's lock down defense cannot be denied.

But my does he become a liability on offense late in close playoff games.

He's your best ball handler/distributor, but you cannot pass him the ball because:

1) his refusal to shoot anything outside of 4 feet when defenses sag
2) his inability to sink ft's at a reasonable clip when opponents are trailing

It's essentially 4 on 5 ball.

Ben shot 50% when they started fouling him. He's 61.3% this season fwiw.

Advanced stats show the 'Hack a Player x' strategy to work means he has to shoot worse than 47%, because then the team that fouled has to go against a half-court D setup which is much tougher than otherwise you might face on an Def reb/steal.

'Washington committing intentional fouls also means the Wizards were limiting their own transition opportunities, guaranteeing heir own offense had to go up against a set Sixers defense. Washington had been scoring just .924 points per play in the half court so far this series.'

1.0 > .924 ppp.

I do agree that 50% is unacceptably low, but I think he will be at 55-63% going forward, at least against Hack-a-Ben tactics. Obviously in the last two minutes, you cannot use the strategy because it's 2 FTs and the ball back.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Ben shot 50% when they started fouling him. He's 61.3% this season fwiw.

Advanced stats show the 'Hack a Player x' strategy to work means he has to shoot worse than 47%, because then the team that fouled has to go against a half-court D setup which is much tougher than otherwise you might face on an off reb/steal.

'Washington committing intentional fouls also means the Wizards were limiting their own transition opportunities, guaranteeing heir own offense had to go up against a set Sixers defense. Washington had been scoring just .924 points per play in the half court so far this series.'

1.0 > .924 ppp.

I do agree that 50% is unacceptably low, but I think he will be at 55-63% going forward, at least against Hack-a-Ben tactics. Obviously in the last two minutes, you cannot use the strategy because it's 2 FTs and the ball back.

That's a super interesting point I've never heard. I mean, I've heard the hack a player strategy is rarely useful BUT where did you read that? I'd love to look into it in more depth

[gomiamigo]

Just look up any offense's stats vs a set half-court D. Divide by 2 you get the breakeven FT rate for it to be effective. Pretty easy. If a team sucks at halfcourt D, it will be more effective which is intuitively obvious, and vice versa.

There's a reason Hack-a-Shaq didn't stop the Lakers from winning their titles.

[tjforce]

A lot of over-analysis on yesterday's Philly-Washington game.

But I'll simplify and summarize it:

Philly lost because Embiid got hurt and Simmons in foul trouble. They combined for 36 minutes played.

If Embiid's injury is severe and he misses significant time, they are done. If Embiid is fine an he doesn't miss much, if any time, they are still legit contenders.

Simple enough.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by tjforce

A lot of over-analysis on yesterday's Philly-Washington game.

But I'll simplify and summarize it:

Philly lost because Embiid got hurt and Simmons in foul trouble. They combined for 36 minutes played.

If Embiid's injury is severe and he misses significant time, they are done. If Embiid is fine an he doesn't miss much, if any time, they are still legit contenders.

Simple enough.

Yup, that's pretty much it. Spot on.

[jswest18]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

1) I never said Trae wasn't good at attacking the paint. He's fine overall but not great at finishing through contact and doesn't draw playoff fouls at the rim. Westbrook was basically just attacking every other possession in both transition and the half court and drawing a lot of fouls. In the playoffs they aren't really calling the ticky tack fouls that Trae/Harden types get all season.

Like you said though, Trae is going to get his, it's going to come down to the other guys.

2) What you said about Randle taking more shots from the outside simply isn't true. His shot distribution is nearly identical to the regular season. He's getting to the rim more in the playoffs, actually. Now I will agree that the Hawks interior defense is definitely contributing to the lower percentage at the rim. With that being said how do you explain a drop in shooting % of over 30% in both short and long mid range shots when he's open at the exact same rates he was during the regular season.

Could he be missing shots because he's tired from the regular season? Yes Could he be missing shots because he's lost his confidence / playoff pressure got to him? Yes

To say that the Hawks defense is responsible for him dropping 30+ percentage points shooting across the board? Especially when he's shooting 14% from the floor on wide open shots. No

The Knicks absolutely blew game 1. The game was tied with 30 seconds to go and Alec Burks missed the most wide open mid range shot ever which led to a fastbreak and Barrett committing a dumb foul. That 4 point swing basically sealed the game and killed the Knicks momentum.

I stand partially corrected on his shot distribution. He is getting to the rim more than in the regular season but he is shooting more from 3 by a decent clip. He's shooting nearly 60% of his shots from either behind the arc or at the rim. His 3pt % is about his career average. His shooting % at the rim is down by a lot and credit for that has to go to the rim protection provided by Capella and Collins. So even though he's shooting more at the rim (which I was wrong about) he's having a much harder time scoring from there than he ever has which is putting more emphasis on his game away from the basket than there was in the regular season.

Look, I'm not trying to credit the Hawks with everything bad that is going on with Randle and I haven't said that. He's just having a really bad playoffs. But the Hawks defense and game plan are a major factor as well.

Burks had been on fire for the game and especially in the 4th. I was surprised he missed that shot but he had made everything prior to that so the law of averages was against him. That's in no way the Knicks blowing that game. They had a shot to win but they didn't blow it and it's not realistic to say the series should be 2-2.

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Hawks don't have the ammo either offense or defense to hang with the 76ers if Embiid is healthy.

76ers are 2nd in Def Rtg and 4th in Opp shoot%, 2nd in steals, blocks and forcing turnovers.
ATL is 21st in DRtg, 21 in ORebs allowed, 29th in forcing turnovers, 24th in steals.

Offense: 76ers are 3rd in FTs, 9th in FG%, 10th in 3pt%, 14th in TS,
ATL is 4th, 15th, 12th and 26th in TS% comparatively.


No Embiid, a totally diff story. 76ers should probably play 4-out with Simmons and Howard rotating inside [and Scott/Paul] with shooters like Tobias, Danny, Seth, Korkmaz, Hill, Shake, and some dribble penetration from Maxey and of course Matisse is a terror on D and hit 2 3s last night. 50-50 series there but I'd have to see what Vegas opens lines at before I made a bet either side.

This has been said before but those rankings are based on a team who was decimated by injuries all year. They aren't indicative of the team they have in the playoffs now. So it's silly to use those rankings to prove that they have no shot against the 76ers.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

The Hawks won't score as much against the #2 Defense than the league-average Defense in a 7-game series. Anyone who doesn't understand that should log off for a while, or open a stats textbook. Anyone who thinks that's spin should see a therapist..

what am i missing here. hawks are decimating the 3rd rank defense in the league (knicks)

made Thibs look like a chump in the process which is hard to do considering his pedigree on defense (he’s light years above doc rivers)


the 76ers will win though, they were my pick but it wont be justbecause of of their suffocating defense but it’s also because they have a legit blue chip first option unlike Randle.

[rhigh2390]

Originally Posted by Dame

what am i missing here. hawks are decimating the 3rd rank defense in the league (knicks)

made Thibs look like a chump in the process which is hard to do considering his pedigree on defense (he’s light years above doc rivers)


the 76ers will win though, they were my pick but it wont be justbecause of of their suffocating defense but it’s also because they have a legit blue chip first option unlike Randle.

Hawks are partially decimating the 3rd ranked defense because they are able to play in transition so much since the Knicks offense has been atrocious. If the team you're playing is shooting horribly, it's easy to get out in transition and score a lot.

I figured the Hawks would win the series anyway, but they have looked better than I expected. That said.... I still say Philly has no trouble with them.

Knicks greatly overachieved this year and credit again to Thibs for getting the most out of what he has. Their roster should be nowhere near the 4 seed, even in the East. I have loved seeing some flashes of vintage DRose though

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by jswest18

I stand partially corrected on his shot distribution. He is getting to the rim more than in the regular season but he is shooting more from 3 by a decent clip. He's shooting nearly 60% of his shots from either behind the arc or at the rim. His 3pt % is about his career average. His shooting % at the rim is down by a lot and credit for that has to go to the rim protection provided by Capella and Collins. So even though he's shooting more at the rim (which I was wrong about) he's having a much harder time scoring from there than he ever has which is putting more emphasis on his game away from the basket than there was in the regular season.

Look, I'm not trying to credit the Hawks with everything bad that is going on with Randle and I haven't said that. He's just having a really bad playoffs. But the Hawks defense and game plan are a major factor as well.

Burks had been on fire for the game and especially in the 4th. I was surprised he missed that shot but he had made everything prior to that so the law of averages was against him. That's in no way the Knicks blowing that game. They had a shot to win but they didn't blow it and it's not realistic to say the series should be 2-2.


This has been said before but those rankings are based on a team who was decimated by injuries all year. They aren't indicative of the team they have in the playoffs now. So it's silly to use those rankings to prove that they have no shot against the 76ers.

Everybody take note. This is a way to disagree with someone while still providing valuable content.

We can agree to disagree the whole blowing the game thing.

The Hawks defense has 100% played a part in the Knicks offensive struggles. I do also think they've been a pleasant surprise under McMillan on both ends of the floor.

We'll see about Philly. I guess I was being hyperbolic by saying it's not a coin flip if Embiid is out.

I just want to see some good, competitive, playoff basketball