Hall of Fame Metrics/Stats

[jrosales]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Since the beginning of the Hall of Fame, standards have changed constantly. Just look at the first HOF class:
Cobb, Ruth, Mathewson, Wagner, and Johnson

And compare it to the class just 10 years later:
Burkett, Tinker, Evers, Chance, Chesbro, Griffith, McCarthy, McGinnity, Plank, Waddell, and Walsh

The issue with a magic number is, every era is different. You have a low run environment like the 1960s and compare it to a high run environment like the 1990s and you realize 500 homeruns doesn't mean the same thing when Harmon Killebrew does it vs when Mark McGwire does it.

We also have an ever changing BBWAA as members pass on and are replaced with younger writers.

Despite most names from 1946 being either unworthy or borderline, Burkett and Plank are 100% bonafide HOFers, though.

[WizardofOz1982]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I think that was a fair assessment, and my instinct is that Votto is going to wind up being in the Hall of Very Good. He really needed to get to the high 300s in career HRs at least.

Yeah which is crazy because parts of his game are certainly Hall of Fame level. I just don't see the whole package being good enough without some kind of really late career renaissance.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by jrosales

Despite most names from 1946 being either unworthy or borderline, Burkett and Plank are 100% bonafide HOFers, though.

Definitely. I wasn’t suggesting any of them were bad selections. My point is, the standards for the Hall have been changing constantly since they started voting and will continue to change.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

You do realize that 6 good seasons in their 30’s is very difficult for pitchers to achieve, especially a guy as injury prone as Sale.

Getting in to the HOF is difficult to achieve. Plenty who make it do so by having a bunch of good seasons in their 30s.

[Raleigh504]

And with their now being 20,000 players to play in the MLB and only 333 in the HOF (that includes not just players), that is around a 1.6% or so of players. To me if they can keep it around 1.5% or less then the HOF will be the best of the best.

Yes there will be the Harold Baines that get in that accumulate stats, but in retrospect, isn't that a heck of an accomplishment? I mean Cal Ripken Jr. (and before him Gehrig) is known as the guy who showed up to work each day and never took a day off.

Saw this (it was in 2007 so it could be worse or better):

The average career of a Major League Baseball player is 5.6 years, according to a new study. The study also revealed that one in five position players will have only a single-year career, and that at every point of a player's career, the player's chance of ending his career is at least 11 percent.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Votto will be a very interesting case having one of very best OBP in history.

It'll be interesting to see how Scott Rolen does -- a very good all-around player. Someone like Arenado fits that mold.

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Votto is tough. I put a post up before the 2020 season asking if he was a lock for the HOF, but man has his career crashed. Still how do you deny a guy with a 15 year career and a .933 lifetime OPS?

I think he would make his case easier if he leaves the Reds for someplace like Colorado or the American League(Boston?) and racks up some more counting numbers before retiring. He’s slightly worse than Todd Helton and played his whole career in a ballpark that’s only a little more difficult to hit in than Colorado. And I don’t see Helton getting in.

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because a lot of that OPS comes from drawing walks....

Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982

I really thought after 2018 that Votto needed 3 more seasons similar to 2018 and a couple of decline seasons to be borderline. Instead he cratered.

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

I wouldn’t worry too much about pitchers not having big WAR out of
the gate. The big 4 all accumulated a ton in their 30’s. Pitchers get better with age. Strasburg could still average 5 war for 6 seasons if he could stay healthy. Darvish is a no.
Cole looks in prime shape to make a run in his 30’s. Aaron Nola is a sneaky one with a shot.
Flaherty, Bieber etc all on a good path. Bauer would need about 6 dominant years and 2-3 more decent. Sale is only 32 and has 2000 K’s. 3000k is basically a lock to get you in. If he can come back for another 6 years he should get there. Sabathia has 250 wins and 3000k he will get in.

It has been said that on average there are around 30-40 active Future HOF players in a given season. With the talk about Votto and Rolen getting in as well as pitchers having a tougher road, do you think of that 30-40, the shift will be towards more hitters than pitchers?

[Browns1981]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

And with their now being 20,000 players to play in the MLB and only 333 in the HOF (that includes not just players), that is around a 1.6% or so of players. To me if they can keep it around 1.5% or less then the HOF will be the best of the best.

Yes there will be the Harold Baines that get in that accumulate stats, but in retrospect, isn't that a heck of an accomplishment? I mean Cal Ripken Jr. (and before him Gehrig) is known as the guy who showed up to work each day and never took a day off.

Saw this (it was in 2007 so it could be worse or better):

The average career of a Major League Baseball player is 5.6 years, according to a new study. The study also revealed that one in five position players will have only a single-year career, and that at every point of a player's career, the player's chance of ending his career is at least 11 percent.

Ripken was an elite player for two decades. Baines was a light hitting player at power positions and never the best at anything.

I don't get how pitchers are chosen. To me, David Cone is a slam dunk hall of Fame player. It makes no sense.