Hall of Fame Metrics/Stats

[Raleigh504]

With the talk of prospects early in their career and getting into the Hall of Fame along with how the game is currently changing:

- HR more important than hits
- Strikeouts up (bad for hitters, good for pitchers)
- Platooning is more popular than ever
- Inning limits on SP
- SB down compared to history
- etc...

Question #1:
- Will the stats/metrics of a "sure 1st ballot HOF" be changed from the previous generations must haves (hitters: hit around .300 or make up for it with HR/hits, pitchers: 250+ wins or make up with Ks)?

Question #2:
- Will previous generations with similar stats to current players get in (lowering the bar) via veterans committee?

Question #3:
- Will getting in now be viewed as "most dominate players" compared to their competition over x amount of years/during their prime?


Anything else I didn't think of or to add?

[Raleigh504]

Something interesting I found broken out by position:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/wp-content...OFer-LaRue.jpg

[Biohazarddfl]

I believe that WAR has really leveled the playing field on stats and that it will be the first criteria used in the future, with the exception of maybe Degrom. If an older player excelled here without gaudy counting stats, they may get a bump.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[fabiani12333]

The current active hall of fame-worthy starters seem to be in the 200-250 wins range: Kershaw; Verlander, Scherzer, maybe Grienke.

deGrom is interesting in that he might have a Koufax career with a terrible win-loss record due to terrible run support.

The active position player candidates are more complete players or more valued for their defense: Trout, Betts, Molina and Posey.

Pujols and Cabrera are both well past their prime and should have retired years ago -- they overlap with the steroid era which emphasized traditional stats: .300 average, 500 or more homers and 3000 hits.

[cjraleigh]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The current active hall of fame-worthy starters seem to be in the 200-250 wins range: Kershaw; Verlander, Scherzer, maybe Grienke.

deGrom is interesting in that he might have a Koufax career with a terrible win-loss record due to terrible run support.

The active position player candidates are more complete players or more valued for their defense: Trout, Betts, Molina and Posey.

Pujols and Cabrera are both well past their prime and should have retired years ago -- they overlap with the steroid era which emphasized traditional stats: .300 average, 500 or more homers and 3000 hits.

Koufax is a lofty comparison, but here is an interesting article that suggests that deGrom is not especially unlucky compared to other starting pitchers.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/04/09/ja...-bad-luck-mets

In no way am I comparing his body of work to most on this list, but I wonder how much HOF voters will consider run support when the time comes...especially if his final “counting” stats don’t jump off the page.

[tyrith]

Even the WAR standard for pitchers is likely going to have to come down some. They just don't last as long as they used to. Outside of the big 4 (Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw, and Scherzer) no other active pitchers are north of 46. Of the active pitchers north of 30 WAR, only Chris Sale and deGrom seem to have any sort of a shot. Johan Santana finished with several career top 3 Cy Young finishes and 50.3 WAR and got bounced from the vote the first year.

Besides the 6 guys I mentioned, who even has a decent shot to get to 50 WAR? Gerrit Cole has a shot if he stays healthy. And, um...uh....it looks pretty bad after that. The next most likely candidate going down the WAR rankings seems like Shane Bieber, who has a career total of 10.4 WAR right now. And there will have to be an adjustment for the COVID year - it cost the peak guys probably 3-5 wins of career value. But it looks really, really ugly for pitchers getting into the HOF going forward.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Even the WAR standard for pitchers is likely going to have to come down some. They just don't last as long as they used to. Outside of the big 4 (Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw, and Scherzer) no other active pitchers are north of 46. Of the active pitchers north of 30 WAR, only Chris Sale and deGrom seem to have any sort of a shot. Johan Santana finished with several career top 3 Cy Young finishes and 50.3 WAR and got bounced from the vote the first year.

Besides the 6 guys I mentioned, who even has a decent shot to get to 50 WAR? Gerrit Cole has a shot if he stays healthy. And, um...uh....it looks pretty bad after that. The next most likely candidate going down the WAR rankings seems like Shane Bieber, who has a career total of 10.4 WAR right now. And there will have to be an adjustment for the COVID year - it cost the peak guys probably 3-5 wins of career value. But it looks really, really ugly for pitchers getting into the HOF going forward.

It’s just a lull. You had the four guys you listed debut between 2006 and 2009 and then the guys after that all had injuries or too many down years(Strasburg, Darvish, etc). Then Degrom who is entirely a unique case and nothing else until 2017. It’s too early on those guys, but again nearly all of them had injuries or significant down years already. We’ll see how Flaherty, Buehler, Urias, Castillo, Bieber etc wind up, but none have the innings. This is not really unprecedented. Most of the big name 1980’s pitchers flamed out without HOF credentials despite much hardware. Of the Cy Young award winners in the 1980’s, only Steve Carlton and Rollie Fingers made the HOF, and both those guys started their careers in the 1960’s. And of course Clemens has the stats. But literally every other big name 1980’s pitcher fell far short of the HOF..Valenzuela, Herschiser, Soto, Mike Scott, Saberhagen, Gooden, Viola, etc. Jack Morris made it but should not have.

Point being there are peaks and valleys. Can’t get WAR if you don’t play. And there’s lots of injuries out there.

[kabrune2]

#1 - for hitter the standard metrics won’t change, automatic HoF for 3000 or 500. If you have 1200 R and 1200 RBI you’ll probably get in as long as you aren’t an albatross in OBP or defense. For SP we’ll have to wait and see, but I’m guessing 250 W is the new 300, 2500 K’s is the new 3000, and for those like deGrom a 7 year peak will be vital to getting in like Pedro.

#2 Vets committee - I think we’ll see the veterans committee re-examine hitters from the 90’s-00’s heavily, I think players like McGriff will get in, and I hope they don’t dumb it down to allow more Jack Morris’ or Jim Rice type players. But sluggers that just missed out but are clean will probably get a long 2nd look.

#3 7-year peak has been used for over a decade now, so that will continue to be one of the bars a player must pass, since war accounts for current ballparks and players it’s a nice way to see who was dominant for their generation. As the older voters lose their vote the new generation will start using saber metrics in greater #’s, so hopefully players like Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines won’t take till the last ballot, and guys like Lou Whitaker won’t be shut out for unexplainable reasons.

[base set]

I thought it was based on the value of the PSA 10 Topps RC.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by cjraleigh

Koufax is a lofty comparison, but here is an interesting article that suggests that deGrom is not especially unlucky compared to other starting pitchers.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/04/09/ja...-bad-luck-mets

In no way am I comparing his body of work to most on this list, but I wonder how much HOF voters will consider run support when the time comes...especially if his final “counting” stats don’t jump off the page.

Let’s be clear about deGrom’s “tough luck.” It is not due to an abundance of games with so few runs. It comes from pitching so well when those games do happen. He is “unlucky” when it comes to wins. Since 2018 he did not get a win in 19 starts in which he went at least six innings and gave up one or no runs. Nobody else has more than nine such winless elite starts in the span.

Ah -- so deGrom has been unlucky with the outcome of low scoring games --not necessarily with the amount of run support. Thanks for the link.

[Skipscards]

Since the beginning of the Hall of Fame, standards have changed constantly. Just look at the first HOF class:
Cobb, Ruth, Mathewson, Wagner, and Johnson

And compare it to the class just 10 years later:
Burkett, Tinker, Evers, Chance, Chesbro, Griffith, McCarthy, McGinnity, Plank, Waddell, and Walsh

The issue with a magic number is, every era is different. You have a low run environment like the 1960s and compare it to a high run environment like the 1990s and you realize 500 homeruns doesn't mean the same thing when Harmon Killebrew does it vs when Mark McGwire does it.

We also have an ever changing BBWAA as members pass on and are replaced with younger writers.

[fabiani12333]

Votto will be a very interesting case having one of very best OBP in history.

It'll be interesting to see how Scott Rolen does -- a very good all-around player. Someone like Arenado fits that mold.

[Raleigh504]

I just hope with how the games are played, they won't be letting in the pitcher with the most "holds" and creating new stats for the players to compile.

I still think it will be easier for hitters to get in compared to pitchers. Pitchers will have to start at least by 25 and go in their 40s to compile some of the stats since they aren't pitching as much as before.

Closers may start to get a 2nd look once some newer writers get elected since the game is played to get to the 7th and let your bullpen do the rest. Granted there will never be as many closers in the HOF, but I can see if they get 400 career saves it will be compared to SP getting 300 wins. I think Francisco Rodriguez will get in & so will Billy Wagner eventually. John Franco may even get a look at in the veterans committee if more closers get in.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Votto will be a very interesting case having one of very best OBP in history.

It'll be interesting to see how Scott Rolen does -- a very good all-around player. Someone like Arenado fits that mold.

Votto is tough. I put a post up before the 2020 season asking if he was a lock for the HOF, but man has his career crashed. Still how do you deny a guy with a 15 year career and a .933 lifetime OPS?

I think he would make his case easier if he leaves the Reds for someplace like Colorado or the American League(Boston?) and racks up some more counting numbers before retiring. He’s slightly worse than Todd Helton and played his whole career in a ballpark that’s only a little more difficult to hit in than Colorado. And I don’t see Helton getting in.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Votto is tough. I put a post up before the 2020 season asking if he was a lock for the HOF, but man has his career crashed. Still how do you deny a guy with a 15 year career and a .933 lifetime OPS?

Because a lot of that OPS comes from drawing walks....

[WizardofOz1982]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Votto is tough. I put a post up before the 2020 season asking if he was a lock for the HOF, but man has his career crashed. Still how do you deny a guy with a 15 year career and a .933 lifetime OPS?

I think he would make his case easier if he leaves the Reds for someplace like Colorado or the American League(Boston?) and racks up some more counting numbers before retiring. He’s slightly worse than Todd Helton and played his whole career in a ballpark that’s only a little more difficult to hit in than Colorado. And I don’t see Helton getting in.

I really thought after 2018 that Votto needed 3 more seasons similar to 2018 and a couple of decline seasons to be borderline. Instead he cratered.

[peanuts]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Since the beginning of the Hall of Fame, standards have changed constantly. Just look at the first HOF class:
Cobb, Ruth, Mathewson, Wagner, and Johnson

And compare it to the class just 10 years later:
Burkett, Tinker, Evers, Chance, Chesbro, Griffith, McCarthy, McGinnity, Plank, Waddell, and Walsh

The issue with a magic number is, every era is different. You have a low run environment like the 1960s and compare it to a high run environment like the 1990s and you realize 500 homeruns doesn't mean the same thing when Harmon Killebrew does it vs when Mark McGwire does it.

We also have an ever changing BBWAA as members pass on and are replaced with younger writers.

It's almost impossible to draw any conclusions about the calibre required of a HOF player from the first two decades of votes – there was a massive backlog of players to attend to and the voting system was quite different.

Originally Posted by tyrith

Even the WAR standard for pitchers is likely going to have to come down some. They just don't last as long as they used to. Outside of the big 4 (Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw, and Scherzer) no other active pitchers are north of 46.

Some of this lack of longevity isn't even the fault of the players though. Inning control and increased utilization of bullpens has massively changed how SPs are used. We can't deduct from a pitcher's stock because of decisions which are completely outside of their control.

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Votto will be a very interesting case having one of very best OBP in history.

It'll be interesting to see how Scott Rolen does -- a very good all-around player. Someone like Arenado fits that mold.

Votto strikes me as the perfect candidate for an eventual Vet Committee vote.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by peanuts

It's almost impossible to draw any conclusions about the calibre required of a HOF player from the first two decades of votes – there was a massive backlog of players to attend to and the voting system was quite different.

It really isn't impossible. If fact, it is easy to draw a conclusion. When the Hall was established they were immediately only inducting the 1% of the 1%. Even Cy Young didn't even get 50% of the vote the first ballot on either the regular ballot or the Veterans Committee ballot. Despite the supposed backlog, they only elected 3 in 1937 and just 1 in 1938. The 1940s elections, especially the Frankie Frisch led Veterans Committee elections, changed the Hall from uber-exclusive to exclusive.

[panamamyers]

Someone else may have mentioned this but i saw an article recently saying that pitchers are not being graded fairly as it relates to the hall.
That article mentioned buehrle, saber Hagen, chuck Finley, David cone...
All guys who really probably never did or never will get any sort of traction to get in.

[BeastMode27]

I wouldn’t worry too much about pitchers not having big WAR out of
the gate. The big 4 all accumulated a ton in their 30’s. Pitchers get better with age. Strasburg could still average 5 war for 6 seasons if he could stay healthy. Darvish is a no.
Cole looks in prime shape to make a run in his 30’s. Aaron Nola is a sneaky one with a shot.
Flaherty, Bieber etc all on a good path. Bauer would need about 6 dominant years and 2-3 more decent. Sale is only 32 and has 2000 K’s. 3000k is basically a lock to get you in. If he can come back for another 6 years he should get there. Sabathia has 250 wins and 3000k he will get in.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

I wouldn’t worry too much about pitchers not having big WAR out of
the gate. The big 4 all accumulated a ton in their 30’s. Pitchers get better with age. Strasburg could still average 5 war for 6 seasons if he could stay healthy. Darvish is a no.
Cole looks in prime shape to make a run in his 30’s. Aaron Nola is a sneaky one with a shot.
Flaherty, Bieber etc all on a good path. Bauer would need about 6 dominant years and 2-3 more decent. Sale is only 32 and has 2000 K’s. 3000k is basically a lock to get you in. If he can come back for another 6 years he should get there. Sabathia has 250 wins and 3000k he will get in.

You do realize that 6 good seasons in their 30’s is very difficult for pitchers to achieve, especially a guy as injury prone as Sale.

[carlo16]

Originally Posted by kabrune2

#1 - for hitter the standard metrics won’t change, automatic HoF for 3000 or 500. If you have 1200 R and 1200 RBI you’ll probably get in as long as you aren’t an albatross in OBP or defense. For SP we’ll have to wait and see, but I’m guessing 250 W is the new 300, 2500 K’s is the new 3000, and for those like deGrom a 7 year peak will be vital to getting in like Pedro.

#2 Vets committee - I think we’ll see the veterans committee re-examine hitters from the 90’s-00’s heavily, I think players like McGriff will get in, and I hope they don’t dumb it down to allow more Jack Morris’ or Jim Rice type players. But sluggers that just missed out but are clean will probably get a long 2nd look.

#3 7-year peak has been used for over a decade now, so that will continue to be one of the bars a player must pass, since war accounts for current ballparks and players it’s a nice way to see who was dominant for their generation. As the older voters lose their vote the new generation will start using saber metrics in greater #’s, so hopefully players like Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines won’t take till the last ballot, and guys like Lou Whitaker won’t be shut out for unexplainable reasons.

Sox fans sharpening their pitchforks.

[BeastMode27]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

You do realize that 6 good seasons in their 30’s is very difficult for pitchers to achieve, especially a guy as injury prone as Sale.

He is injury prone? His lowest start total in his career is 25 if you take out his tommy john missed season. That’s rather healthy to me. 192 is his full season low for strikeouts over an 8 full seasons. If he comes back and gets 50 strikeouts this year, he would need to average 158 for 6 years to get to 3000k. That is not exactly being “good”. I don’t find that completely unrealistic. Has the worst injury possible out of the way. It’s more of a long shot but no less of one than a lot of this young hitters getting in today. I’m watching the big 4 pitch great in their 30’s why can’t Sale? Batters typically fall off a value cliff post 30.

[mrb842]

1. yes because the writers are soft and like to feel like they're smart people which means they will use new stats to make cases for guys like votto who have no business near the hall.
2. yes because the writers are soft.
3. no because if dominance translated dale murphy would be in.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982

I really thought after 2018 that Votto needed 3 more seasons similar to 2018 and a couple of decline seasons to be borderline. Instead he cratered.

I think that was a fair assessment, and my instinct is that Votto is going to wind up being in the Hall of Very Good. He really needed to get to the high 300s in career HRs at least.