Wind of Change: Shifting from Paper to Chrome

[tyrith]

Bowman is the king of that. But the issue is when the Chrome comes in the same pack, it fundamentally devalues the paper, which simultaneously devalues Bowman Chrome as a set. The hobby would probably be better off if Bowman was just a paper set and Bowman Chrome was a standalone, like Topps and Topps Chrome. But that would decrease the overall MSRP between the two sets, and I think they've realized they make a lot of money off getting to print duplicate sets of chrome rookie cards/chrome autos between Bowman and Bowman Chrome.

[Triple B]

Panini Prizm caused this.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Bowman is the king of that. But the issue is when the Chrome comes in the same pack, it fundamentally devalues the paper, which simultaneously devalues Bowman Chrome as a set. The hobby would probably be better off if Bowman was just a paper set and Bowman Chrome was a standalone, like Topps and Topps Chrome. But that would decrease the overall MSRP between the two sets, and I think they've realized they make a lot of money off getting to print duplicate sets of chrome rookie cards/chrome autos between Bowman and Bowman Chrome.

Devaluing is a GOOD thing.

More people can enjoy.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

dont forget about Sapphire

Sapphire Base cards are some of the best made cards around

Sapphire is next level. It literally combines the framework of flagship with the technology of Chrome, and is released with the scarcity of a parallel.


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[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

They both can easily be distributed in the same pack/product...and it wouldn’t be strange.

You mean, like, Bowman?


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[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by dream34

I believe some others have mentioned it over the years that the main cause of the Flagship boom was that Trout did not have a Chrome version of his flagship. The logic was that all other Update's should be THE RC card to get for players. Never bought into it much, but I do like the Flagship Parallels long term *if it is their 1st Flagship card. Looks like it was more of a Flagship boom that could be the blip on the longterm radar. It's not so much that winds are shifting away from Paper as it is things are returning to how they've been for a few decades.



Whether it's Marvin Harrison/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers in FB; Kobe/Lebron/Curry in BSK; or even the same sport with Jeter/Cabrera/Mauer in BB, Chrome's have always sold better than their Flagship counterparts despite the higher Gem Rate.

It’s a good point that there was a bit of a flagship boom. The Trout factor is part of it, though it was my impression that Bat Down (and the comparable Gleyber) sparked the semi-recent surge.

Even before Trout, the Buster Posey 2010 Topps RC and, going back even further, the Pujols 2001 Topps Traded were popular cards. Flagship rookies have had appeal for a while (besides, of course, pre-1981).

But a boom can also be an awakening of sorts. I don’t think a base card with a six-figure print run is necessarily that exciting, but the parallels are so hard to come by. Even a gold or foil, in the 2,000-2,200 range, is a relatively rare offering of the flagship card. And when you get into the sub-100 print runs, that’s some serious scarcity. It would make sense to me for the hobby to covet the parallels.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Devaluing is a GOOD thing.

More people can enjoy.

People don't enjoy feeling like they are buying devalued cards. If there were Topps Chrome cards in every flagship pack, I don't think people would nearly be as into the flagship paper cards as they are now. Also, the chrome cards means the unit price of the sealed product is going to be a lot higher and therefore less accessible.

Bowman paper is essentially valueless - it doesn't even ship in most breaks and as has been mentioned, the parallels are worth significantly less than identically numbered Chrome parallels. I think having them literally side by side makes it easy for the Bowman paper to be seen as a "lesser" product in a way that isn't true for Topps vs Topps Chrome.

[Chrominator]

I thought the paper cards were there just to protect the chrome ones

[Boredlawyer]

No one cared about paper until ~2017. They used to just be junk included in Bowman w/ Draft. Chrome = King.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by tyrith

People don't enjoy feeling like they are buying devalued cards. If there were Topps Chrome cards in every flagship pack, I don't think people would nearly be as into the flagship paper cards as they are now. Also, the chrome cards means the unit price of the sealed product is going to be a lot higher and therefore less accessible.

Bowman paper is essentially valueless - it doesn't even ship in most breaks and as has been mentioned, the parallels are worth significantly less than identically numbered Chrome parallels. I think having them literally side by side makes it easy for the Bowman paper to be seen as a "lesser" product in a way that isn't true for Topps vs Topps Chrome.

You’re describing the base cards in a pack that contains parallels. Does buying base cards give people the feeling that they’re buying devalued cards?

Edit: Bowman paper is worthless because there aren’t enough prospectors/flippers around to support it. They can only support/maintain chrome pricing.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

You’re describing the base cards in a pack that contains parallels. Does buying base cards give people the feeling that they’re buying devalued cards?

Edit: Bowman paper is worthless because there aren’t enough prospectors/flippers around to support it. They can only support/maintain chrome pricing.

Flipping doesn't work unless there are people that actually want to own the card/slab, otherwise it's just a pyramid scheme that rapidly dies.

And that's same issue with Bowman paper - it's not the same as a normal parallel because parallels are typically a one per pack thing, or less. Instead, you get a pack that has 20 paper cards and 5 nicer, thicker, more premium feeling cards right next to each other. It's not just a question of rarity or color - the entire experience of the card has an immediate, direct comparison that makes one superior to the other. It's so blatant that I'm not even sure why they bother to print the paper cards at all other than to inflate the card count on the box. EDIT: Also it gives them excuse to make the entire separate Bowman Chrome product, but I think that's the biggest part of the issue here.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Flipping doesn't work unless there are people that actually want to own the card/slab, otherwise it's just a pyramid scheme that rapidly dies.

And that's same issue with Bowman paper - it's not the same as a normal parallel because parallels are typically a one per pack thing, or less. Instead, you get a pack that has 20 paper cards and 5 nicer, thicker, more premium feeling cards right next to each other. It's not just a question of rarity or color - the entire experience of the card has an immediate, direct comparison that makes one superior to the other. It's so blatant that I'm not even sure why they bother to print the paper cards at all other than to inflate the card count on the box. EDIT: Also it gives them excuse to make the entire separate Bowman Chrome product, but I think that's the biggest part of the issue here.

Ideally, you’d be right, but this isn’t how the hobby works. The hobby market isn’t that simple - as counterintuitive as that might sound.

The unregulated hobby “market” is easily distorted because people do different things with cards; this “market” is not difficult to manipulate.

Basically the card market is not a classic market working with simple supply & demand most naive people assume it is. You may have heard of the phrase “hobby good does not equal baseball good”, and I’m sure you know all 1/1s aren’t worth a million $ each.

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Sometime in the past six months or so, there had been a surge in Topps Chrome prices. The trend routinely gets mentioned in the various threads, but from what I can recall, we haven’t had a focused discussion on the matter.

The conventional wisdom is that the surge is due to an influx of new baseball collectors, who are crossing over from other sports—where they’re accustomed to shiny Panini products.

Is that it? Are there any other reasons why the tide shifted? Is Chrome dominance here to stay, or is it going to continue going back and forth and/or shifting to other products?

And if it is, indeed, driven by the newbies, is this crowd of hardcore collectors, here in the Blowout forum, staying the course and collecting what they like, Nd finding the lull in paper to be a great buying opportunity?

Personally, I like both paper and Chrome (and Topps and Bowman, for that matter). So, I collect from across the board—except that some levels of Chrome have become difficult to pursue. But I grab what I can.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts.


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I think this is mostly it. But perhaps it's also the constant ebbs and flows in the hobby. When I got back into it in 2018 I absolutely loathed Topps Chrome - and not just because it was a savage product to rip. I simply didn't like the look of it. I loved Bowman Chrome and flagship.

For some reason this year I have started to appreciate Topps Chrome a lot more than before. I have no idea why, but my opinion of it has gone from disliking it immensely, to really liking it.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by BaseballKing

I think this is mostly it. But perhaps it's also the constant ebbs and flows in the hobby. When I got back into it in 2018 I absolutely loathed Topps Chrome - and not just because it was a savage product to rip. I simply didn't like the look of it. I loved Bowman Chrome and flagship.

For some reason this year I have started to appreciate Topps Chrome a lot more than before. I have no idea why, but my opinion of it has gone from disliking it immensely, to really liking it.

It's possible it's just the design of a given year looking better or worse to you than other years. IMO 2018 Topps Chrome is pretty ugly and doesn't bring out the best of a chrome product - similar to something like 2020 Stadium Club Chrome. But I think 2019 and 2020 Topps Chrome are pretty great. 2020 Bowman Sterling looks incredible to me and 2019 Bowman Sterling looks like crap. The eye is a fickle thing sometimes.

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by tyrith

It's possible it's just the design of a given year looking better or worse to you than other years. IMO 2018 Topps Chrome is pretty ugly and doesn't bring out the best of a chrome product - similar to something like 2020 Stadium Club Chrome. But I think 2019 and 2020 Topps Chrome are pretty great. 2020 Bowman Sterling looks incredible to me and 2019 Bowman Sterling looks like crap. The eye is a fickle thing sometimes.

That's a fair point.

[BaseballKing]

Also, in 2018 I didn't care much for about half of the products. Now there are almost none that I dislike.

It takes a while to gain an appreciation for certain products. Unlike many folk who have been in the hobby for a very long time and get introduced gradually to each new product, newbies come in and have nigh on 40 products to choose from. I didn't much like Archives, Heritage - and especially GQ - in the beginning but love all three now.

Again, not much I don't like nowadays.

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by tyrith

People don't enjoy feeling like they are buying devalued cards. If there were Topps Chrome cards in every flagship pack, I don't think people would nearly be as into the flagship paper cards as they are now. Also, the chrome cards means the unit price of the sealed product is going to be a lot higher and therefore less accessible.

Bowman paper is essentially valueless - it doesn't even ship in most breaks and as has been mentioned, the parallels are worth significantly less than identically numbered Chrome parallels. I think having them literally side by side makes it easy for the Bowman paper to be seen as a "lesser" product in a way that isn't true for Topps vs Topps Chrome.

I diagree there. I sold my Wander and Jasson Dominguez paper 1sts for $25 each. I think Wander is still at about that price now.

And I don't quite get why people would want to go into a break knowing they're not getting the paper. Maybe it's just me because I'm not much into breaks but it does strike me as odd( I understand why the breaker would not wish to get bogged down shipping paper) that people are ok with not getting Bowman paper.

I like Bowman paper

[Archangel1775]

When people move from other sports to baseball, the shiny stuff will win. In those other sports, Chrome is King. You can name multiple key RC's of legends/young superstars from Topps Chrome or Panini Prizm. Heck, with your average new collector, Prizm is their "base brand". So with a transition into BB, they stick with it, Topps Chrome becomes their base brand with all those shiny cards.

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

When people move from other sports to baseball, the shiny stuff will win. In those other sports, Chrome is King. You can name multiple key RC's of legends/young superstars from Topps Chrome or Panini Prizm. Heck, with your average new collector, Prizm is their "base brand". So with a transition into BB, they stick with it, Topps Chrome becomes their base brand with all those shiny cards.

Hard to disagree with that.

[brewtown107]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

I’ve never understood why PSA 10 US300 are cheaper than HMT55 PSA 10s. US300 is far harder to gem

This is one of those things that people say a lot, but doesn't make any actual sense at all.

Buyers in the market don't have any reason to care about gem rate. They would only care about how many total gems are out there.

Right now, there are ~9500 gems out there from ~10,500 HMT55s submitted, and ~17,000 gems out there from ~25,000 US300s submitted. Gem rate is lower for sure on US300s, but that's just the submitter's problem. End result is still almost twice as many US300 gems in the marketplace compared to HMT55s. US300 gems are way more common, which makes them less valuable.

[brewtown107]

Originally Posted by dream34

I believe some others have mentioned it over the years that the main cause of the Flagship boom was that Trout did not have a Chrome version of his flagship. The logic was that all other Update's should be THE RC card to get for players. Never bought into it much, but I do like the Flagship Parallels long term *if it is their 1st Flagship card. Looks like it was more of a Flagship boom that could be the blip on the longterm radar. It's not so much that winds are shifting away from Paper as it is things are returning to how they've been for a few decades.

Whether it's Marvin Harrison/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers in FB; Kobe/Lebron/Curry in BSK; or even the same sport with Jeter/Cabrera/Mauer in BB, Chrome's have always sold better than their Flagship counterparts despite the higher Gem Rate.

Came here to say this, and agree with this comment

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by brewtown107

This is one of those things that people say a lot, but doesn't make any actual sense at all.

Buyers in the market don't have any reason to care about gem rate. They would only care about how many total gems are out there.

Right now, there are ~9500 gems out there from ~10,500 HMT55s submitted, and ~17,000 gems out there from ~25,000 US300s submitted. Gem rate is lower for sure on US300s, but that's just the submitter's problem. End result is still almost twice as many US300 gems in the marketplace compared to HMT55s. US300 gems are way more common, which makes them less valuable.

While what you wrote makes sense, I’m afraid there really isn’t much rational thinking in anything when it comes to pop counts and modern cards...just good ol’ simple herd mentality.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by BaseballKing

I diagree there. I sold my Wander and Jasson Dominguez paper 1sts for $25 each. I think Wander is still at about that price now.



And I don't quite get why people would want to go into a break knowing they're not getting the paper. Maybe it's just me because I'm not much into breaks but it does strike me as odd( I understand why the breaker would not wish to get bogged down shipping paper) that people are ok with not getting Bowman paper.



I like Bowman paper

I’m a Bowman paper fan, too—at least when it comes to the parallels. Even when they were just the orange /250 and light blue /499, I liked them. (Hard to beat a Buster Posey 2010 Bowman orange /250!)

But I have to imagine the current offerings of red /5, orange /25, etc. will be viewed favorably in the long-term—as long as you have the right players.


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[tyrith]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

While what you wrote makes sense, I’m afraid there really isn’t much rational thinking in anything when it comes to pop counts and modern cards...just good ol’ simple herd mentality.

It definitely feels like things are starting to correct in that regard. The PSA logjam has hidden some of the pop report in the 2019/2020 print run increases, because some people subbed cards at higher tiers or subbed earlier, but there are still a bazillion in the queue.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by tyrith

It definitely feels like things are starting to correct in that regard. The PSA logjam has hidden some of the pop report in the 2019/2020 print run increases, because some people subbed cards at higher tiers or subbed earlier, but there are still a bazillion in the queue.

When it comes to slabs, there will always be times where none of it will make sense, partially because many people have no clue...or care... what the pop counts are.