Yordan Alvarez

[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Same. I took a flyer on the Bowman Chrome orange refractor last night.

Saw that... Was thinking about it. Got another S1 SSP instead.

[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by SGC300ier

Just not quite sure why his prices aren't moving much.

Is it the DH thing? Not playing a position? Playing for the Astros?

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Probably a combination of everything along with Acuna, Guerrero, and Ohtani getting most of the hype and money right now.

Ultimately none of these guys are hitting as well as Yordan has thus far and it's unlikely with his power that he will have so few HRs for much longer. On top of that, there's clear plans to ease him into the field so the upside is tremendous still.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by BGeezy

Probably a combination of everything along with Acuna, Guerrero, and Ohtani getting most of the hype and money right now.



Ultimately none of these guys are hitting as well as Yordan has thus far and it's unlikely with his power that he will have so few HRs for much longer. On top of that, there's clear plans to ease him into the field so the upside is tremendous still.

I’m a Yordan fan, but you can’t say Vlad isn’t hitting as well as he is. Batting average and doubles are the only two categories in which Yordan is currently ahead. The BA isn’t by much, and that can easily change in a day.

Yordan’s prices haven’t taken off yet because early-season batting average isn’t enough to get people juiced up. The less baseball savvy folks aren’t going to impulsively buy a .340’s average, and the (maybe slightly) more savvy folks know that a batting average can drastically change in the course of a three-game series.

He would need to go on a power binge. It’s as simple as that. The Houston and DH factors might cause a little hesitancy, but once those homers start flying in bunches, then people will forget where he plays and just buy the home runs.


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[ddearing]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

I’m a Yordan fan, but you can’t say Vlad isn’t hitting as well as he is. Batting average and doubles are the only two categories in which Yordan is currently ahead. The BA isn’t by much, and that can easily change in a day.


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And just to note - Vlad's Topps Chrome Auto PSA 10's are consistently around $1000 while Yordan's were regularly around $300 until a few weeks ago. About $400 now.

[sigmachi]

Originally Posted by BGeezy

Probably a combination of everything along with Acuna, Guerrero, and Ohtani getting most of the hype and money right now.

Ultimately none of these guys are hitting as well as Yordan has thus far and it's unlikely with his power that he will have so few HRs for much longer. On top of that, there's clear plans to ease him into the field so the upside is tremendous still.

Actually all 3 of those guys have higher oWAR than our guy Yordan does right now. The hype for all 3 are justified IMO. I do believe Yordan is being overlooked in a major way in our hobby and that will change but each of those guys are having as good or better offensive seasons than Yordan.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by SGC300ier

Just not quite sure why his prices aren't moving much.

Is it the DH thing? Not playing a position? Playing for the Astros?

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It’s hard getting historical comps on DH only guys. Edgar Martinez never caught on hobby-wise. Nelson Cruz had his PED scandal. David Ortiz should be much bigger in the hobby than he is, and will probably make the HOF at some point, but even he had a maybe-PED scandal. Add in that people are still sore about the Astros scandal, and Yordan’s injury history, and it all sort of makes sense.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

It’s hard getting historical comps on DH only guys. Edgar Martinez never caught on hobby-wise. Nelson Cruz had his PED scandal. David Ortiz should be much bigger in the hobby than he is, and will probably make the HOF at some point, but even he had a maybe-PED scandal. Add in that people are still sore about the Astros scandal, and Yordan’s injury history, and it all sort of makes sense.

Ortiz is the comp that makes some sense, but he came into his own later. I think Ortiz is valued fairly well if that ugly 1997 Fleer card brings decent returns. I think for comps you might have to look at poor fielding good hitters, but I’m not sure if that is fair to Yordan or whoever you compare him to. Yordan is one of my decent performing pre-season pickup players that I am still picking up because the prices haven’t gone crazy yet (Devers is the other). My other targets have either played poorly, been injured, or have seen price jumps.


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[sigmachi]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

It’s hard getting historical comps on DH only guys. Edgar Martinez never caught on hobby-wise. Nelson Cruz had his PED scandal. David Ortiz should be much bigger in the hobby than he is, and will probably make the HOF at some point, but even he had a maybe-PED scandal. Add in that people are still sore about the Astros scandal, and Yordan’s injury history, and it all sort of makes sense.

I'm with you. I don't think people who collect Yordan realize how much people dislike the Astros! Even though he had absolutely nothing to do with any cheating or scandal it's still a black mark on anybody with an Astros uniform on a baseball card. That will blow over but it might take a year or two...provided he stays healthy and keeps hitting we should see that reflected in his prices.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

The Houston and DH factors might cause a little hesitancy, but once those homers start flying in bunches, then people will forget where he plays and just buy the home runs.

The Astors thing is HUGE. The majority of casual baseball fans have no interest in anything Astros right now. Everyone here is underestimating it. It doesn't matter that Yordan wasn't a part of the cheating. The Astros are toxic. No one wants anything to do with the Astros.

Guerrero's hype has been built up over years, I'd expect him to be considerably higher even with close performance. But also Yordan being a DH plus injury history. He missed all of last season. I get this is the pump thread but it's hilarious to see the "why aren't his prices higher?" all the time as if the reasons weren't right in front of your face.

[SGC300ier]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The Astors thing is HUGE. The majority of casual baseball fans have no interest in anything Astros right now. Everyone here is underestimating it. It doesn't matter that Yordan wasn't a part of the cheating. The Astros are toxic. No one wants anything to do with the Astros.

Guerrero's hype has been built up over years, I'd expect him to be considerably higher even with close performance. But also Yordan being a DH plus injury history. He missed all of last season. I get this is the pump thread but it's hilarious to see the "why aren't his prices higher?" all the time as if the reasons weren't right in front of your face.

Oh, it's you....lol

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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by SGC300ier

Oh, it's you....lol

I have to swoop in when someone asks a question with a blindingly obvious answer

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by sigmachi

I'm with you. I don't think people who collect Yordan realize how much people dislike the Astros! Even though he had absolutely nothing to do with any cheating or scandal it's still a black mark on anybody with an Astros uniform on a baseball card. That will blow over but it might take a year or two...provided he stays healthy and keeps hitting we should see that reflected in his prices.

I definitely think that if he keeps putting up consistently solid stats over the years, avoids injuries, and PEDs, his prices will rise to match that of the Vladys of the world. Or at least get closer.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The Astors thing is HUGE. The majority of casual baseball fans have no interest in anything Astros right now. Everyone here is underestimating it. It doesn't matter that Yordan wasn't a part of the cheating. The Astros are toxic. No one wants anything to do with the Astros.

Guerrero's hype has been built up over years, I'd expect him to be considerably higher even with close performance. But also Yordan being a DH plus injury history. He missed all of last season. I get this is the pump thread but it's hilarious to see the "why aren't his prices higher?" all the time as if the reasons weren't right in front of your face.

The strange thing is that Altuve prices haven't really changed all that much from a couple years ago. That includes both the scandal and the bad year last year.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

The strange thing is that Altuve prices haven't really changed all that much from a couple years ago. That includes both the scandal and the bad year last year.

Was Altuve ever all that widely bought or expensive? If a guy is cheap enough and good enough, his cards can only drop so much. Bregman saw a drop in his prices after the scandal but he had card buying across the entire range of baseball fans and his stuff was decently expensive.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Was Altuve ever all that widely bought or expensive? If a guy is cheap enough and good enough, his cards can only drop so much. Bregman saw a drop in his prices after the scandal but he had card buying across the entire range of baseball fans and his stuff was decently expensive.

I'm talking about the 2011 Update stuff. The base PSA 10's were about $70 two years ago, and still there now (maybe a little higher). The cognac/diamonds were about $300-400 two years ago and still about the same.

I guess considering the whole market is up massively, still being the same as two years ago should sort of be seen as a decrease, I guess.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The Astors thing is HUGE. The majority of casual baseball fans have no interest in anything Astros right now. Everyone here is underestimating it. It doesn't matter that Yordan wasn't a part of the cheating. The Astros are toxic. No one wants anything to do with the Astros.

Guerrero's hype has been built up over years, I'd expect him to be considerably higher even with close performance. But also Yordan being a DH plus injury history. He missed all of last season. I get this is the pump thread but it's hilarious to see the "why aren't his prices higher?" all the time as if the reasons weren't right in front of your face.

Yeah, no. Again, those factors have limited impact. If Yordan were to have 30 HR by the all-star break, nobody would care about the team or lack of position, and everyone would forget about his past knee issues.

But he’s barely on pace for 30 HR for the season. (He’s also on pace for about 20 walks, by the walks.) He’s off to an excellent start overall, but the question is more about what is he doing statistically that would cause people to throw silly amounts of money at his cards?


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[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

I’m a Yordan fan, but you can’t say Vlad isn’t hitting as well as he is. Batting average and doubles are the only two categories in which Yordan is currently ahead. The BA isn’t by much, and that can easily change in a day.

Originally Posted by sigmachi

Actually all 3 of those guys have higher oWAR than our guy Yordan does right now. The hype for all 3 are justified IMO. I do believe Yordan is being overlooked in a major way in our hobby and that will change but each of those guys are having as good or better offensive seasons than Yordan.

When I say hitting, I mean pure hitting - the ability to turn an AB into a hit most consistently. Yordan is doing that better than most every player in the league thus far.

Those other guys might be leading in some advanced metrics like oWAR, but that measures more than just hitting, it takes into account fielding runs, so that's not even applicable. They are also hitting more HRs right now, or have more RBIs, that's not what I'm referencing when I say Yordan is a better hitter. It's a pretty straight forward statement that's backed up really easily by the most basic stat.

Not only that, look at his game logs -- he's hitting more consistently every game. So far this month he's only had two games without a hit. The other numbers like HRs and RBI will come as he settles in, remember he didn't even get a full spring training like those other players did. April was basically his Spring Training.

[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The Astors thing is HUGE. The majority of casual baseball fans have no interest in anything Astros right now. Everyone here is underestimating it. It doesn't matter that Yordan wasn't a part of the cheating. The Astros are toxic. No one wants anything to do with the Astros.

Guerrero's hype has been built up over years, I'd expect him to be considerably higher even with close performance. But also Yordan being a DH plus injury history. He missed all of last season. I get this is the pump thread but it's hilarious to see the "why aren't his prices higher?" all the time as if the reasons weren't right in front of your face.

I agree with all of that and I think over the long term that stigma will go away.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by BGeezy

I agree with all of that and I think over the long term that stigma will go away.

I doubt it. The PED stigma hasn't faded a bit despite it being 20 years ago. The reaction to the Astros felt more visceral than that honestly. Yordan's card prices will be fine and if he threatens a triple crown, his prices will go up and go up alot. They are just going to be lower than they otherwise would be with another team. People are going to be asking in this thread for years "why is Yordan so cheap"

All that said, I have started buying a specific one of his cards. Should be able scoop up every one that comes across EBay over the next month

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

But he’s barely on pace for 30 HR for the season. (He’s also on pace for about 20 walks, by the walks.) He’s off to an excellent start overall, but the question is more about what is he doing statistically that would cause people to throw silly amounts of money at his cards?

Don't worry about the gross walk number. His plate discipline peripherals are all as good or better than 2019 which means his walks will come up way up. His power is down a bit but there's no reason to think that's going to stay that way

[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I doubt it. The PED stigma hasn't faded a bit despite it being 20 years ago. The reaction to the Astros felt more visceral than that honestly. Yordan's card prices will be fine and if he threatens a triple crown, his prices will go up and go up alot. They are just going to be lower than they otherwise would be with another team. People are going to be asking in this thread for years "why is Yordan so cheap"

All that said, I have started buying a specific one of his cards. Should be able scoop up every one that comes across EBay over the next month

I do agree Altuve, Correa, Bregman -- these guys will never live it down. Their image is forever tarnished. I think the stigma around the Astros brand in general and how much it hurts Yordan's prices as he grows and has his own individual success will subside. You may be right that it never completely goes away, but that's really difficult to project.

[Archangel1775]

The Houston brand hurts him right now but I think once all the other players go elsewhere in about 4 years, it’ll subside. The FO has to know that. I believe Bregman will be the longest tenured player when Yordan and Tucker, for that matter, hit their prime. Once Bregman leaves, the casual fan should be passed that. As someone mentioned, if he does go Triple Crown numbers, it won’t matter, his stuff will explode.

[ddearing]

PSA Mailday.

/10

IMG_9305 by Dan Dearing, on Flickr

[eliseomo]

I don't get the love with Yordan Alvarez. Now, as a disclosure, I'm a fan of the Astros.

Yordan at 21 was a terrible outfielder, after a couple of surgeries, will never consistently play out there again. First base? Ah, don't think so.

The guy at 23 runs like he had 30. I'd be surprised if he is still in the league at 30. As they get older, knee problems become low back problems, which will lose bat speed and power. When that happens, game over.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by ddearing

PSA Mailday.

/10

IMG_9305 by Dan Dearing, on Flickr

Beautiful card Dan


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