PSA Complete Through Date (CTD) Tracker

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 21stguy

The real question is: are they interested in opening lower levels again. Depending on what you consider lower levels, but I wouldn't be surprised that value level isn't that interesting at all in the grand scheme of things given how flooded they were even with regular/express or even higher. I could imagine a scenario in which PSA is still kind for anything say $250+ while other companys share the low/lower end market.

Yes, they are interested. I don't know why anybody would think a for profit company is not interested in making money. The only reason people could even think this is right now ultra modern is gumming up the works, but if they could churn out 1,000,000 cards a month instead of 150,000 why wouldn't they?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

It will have impacts for sure. I don’t see any company really getting involved that is going to challenge psa on lower end items. It’s not like psa will fade away on low dollar items and still 1 million percent dominate higher end. The already graded stuff on the lower end will go up a lot and be seen as limited. Over the course of 2,3,4 years they will figure it out and maybe it’s 40-50 per card at the low end........ maybe the hobby hear cools off and modern is 25-30 and ultra modern is 50 plus just to deter it from being sent

PSA has always been the best and the brand is unmatched. It will never be beat. If another company comes up with great holders, great turnaround times, and is accurate and sound in the process......... they will have to ramp up 10-20-50x immediately and then they will get overrun too. PSA has been trying to ramp up for over 4 years as their wait times have pushed back. Nobody can come in and withstand the challenges that actually being good at this would present them.

I personally see an economic collapse within the next couple to 5 years. Things won’t always be this way. Just my thoughts overall

Every gold standard company has been able to make this statement and yet gold standard companies shift around all the time.

[21stguy]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Yes, they are interested. I don't know why anybody would think a for profit company is not interested in making money. The only reason people could even think this is right now ultra modern is gumming up the works, but if they could churn out 1,000,000 cards a month instead of 150,000 why wouldn't they?

Well in theory yes, but there's a risk since their business is fully depending on human graders. Being able to handle a million cards a day like in your example does create a significant risk in case of a cool down of the market.

Moreover, flooding the market with such grading numbers as you mentioned can cause the opposite of what you intend to do.

So yeah, they are certainly interested in increasing their capacity, but probably not to an extend you are thinking.

[letsgocapitals]

Things are... getting worse.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 21stguy

Well in theory yes, but there's a risk since their business is fully depending on human graders. Being able to handle a million cards a day like in your example does create a significant risk in case of a cool down of the market.

Moreover, flooding the market with such grading numbers as you mentioned can cause the opposite of what you intend to do.

So yeah, they are certainly interested in increasing their capacity, but probably not to an extend you are thinking.

I'm thinking they need to have enough throughput to handle what comes in without a years long backlog. If the market cools they can let people go or stop hiring or run specials to entice more sales like every other business.

ETA: The risk is in having a two year backlog when the market cools. That might cause people to walk away from submissions, especially at the lower end.

[21stguy]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I'm thinking they need to have enough throughput to handle what comes in without a years long backlog. If the market cools they can let people go or stop hiring or run specials to entice more sales like every other business.

ETA: The risk is in having a two year backlog when the market cools. That might cause people to walk away from submissions, especially at the lower end.

It‘s not simply about letting people go but rather about everything else to handle a gazillion times higher volume in submissions than before which makes it more difficult to adapt without putting up a gamble business wise.

The majority of the cards being sent in at the ultra low levels are not grading worthy and the actual origin of the whole issue. When people start sending in shitty rookies just to be able to flip for $20 higher than the grading fee is you know something is off.

Scaling to meet up demand in a market that exploded is risky and can be the beginning of a never ending story of ongoing issues.

[CheapThief]

Originally Posted by 21stguy

The majority of the cards being sent in at the ultra low levels are not grading worthy and the actual origin of the whole issue. When people start sending in shitty rookies just to be able to flip for $20 higher than the grading fee is you know something is off.

This is exactly what 95% of people who submit in any kind of volume have been doing for over 20 years. People didn't 'start' sending in cards that would sell for $40 as 10s in June of last year; they started in 1998.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Every gold standard company has been able to make this statement and yet gold standard companies shift around all the time.

I don’t disagree with your statement. I just feel like this is a different scenario. PSA has done nothing but further distance itself from everyone else during the worst times. Someone had a “usage” report of grading companies based on pop reports and psa had grown to like 80-85 percent of all card submissions from I think it was 60-65 five year ago.

Sales prices reflect PSA being much further ahead than before and they have pretty much taken over any sector of card sales. They have by far the greatest infrastructure and financial capabilities to handle the current issue. If someone else figures out a way PSA has the resources to mimic it..... but more than likely PSA will just do the best job of an overall crappy pool of options.... withstand the storm and price ultra modern accordingly in the future to deter what caused a huge portion of the problem.

The sooner people just move on and accept that nobody will “fix” this problem the better off they will be. The only short term fix is a true economic collapse where grading most things is a push or a money loss. Otherwise it’s a process that will take a year or more for PSA to decide what makes the most sense

[Woodsy074]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

I don’t disagree with your statement. I just feel like this is a different scenario. PSA has done nothing but further distance itself from everyone else during the worst times. Someone had a “usage” report of grading companies based on pop reports and psa had grown to like 80-85 percent of all card submissions from I think it was 60-65 five year ago.

Sales prices reflect PSA being much further ahead than before and they have pretty much taken over any sector of card sales. They have by far the greatest infrastructure and financial capabilities to handle the current issue. If someone else figures out a way PSA has the resources to mimic it..... but more than likely PSA will just do the best job of an overall crappy pool of options.... withstand the storm and price ultra modern accordingly in the future to deter what caused a huge portion of the problem.

The sooner people just move on and accept that nobody will “fix” this problem the better off they will be. The only short term fix is a true economic collapse where grading most things is a push or a money loss. Otherwise it’s a process that will take a year or more for PSA to decide what makes the most sense

A lot of stuff including some mega cards are down quite a bit from their February highs. 80s basketball is down 50% - 60% as an example. It never should have gotten that high as quickly as it did IMO but very curious to see if things dip below their December pre-meteoric rise levels. If they do, it could be a free fall as "Investors" dump their stuff before they turn into big losses. Never thought cards would mirror stock technical analysis.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by Woodsy074

A lot of stuff including some mega cards are down quite a bit from their February highs. 80s basketball is down 50% - 60% as an example. It never should have gotten that high as quickly as it did IMO but very curious to see if things dip below their December pre-meteoric rise levels. If they do, it could be a free fall as "Investors" dump their stuff before they turn into big losses. Never thought cards would mirror stock technical analysis.

No doubt..... I think it’s hilarious how this has all transpired. I can understand the “cards as commodities” premise. Tangible items as a way to hedge risk during a times of instability isn’t really a flawed idea....... however; the niche buyers pool is and would be overwhelmingly concerning to me. Every financial advisor is aware of gold. It’s a tangible commodity and one everyone can follow and appreciate the nature of.

Cards........ 99 percent of cards are trash for “investing” and the knowledge base it takes to figure out appropriate decisions is just frankly above most people’s competency. It takes time and work; two things your card day traders will be tired of within a year or two or just too lazy to even begin. Then for bass wave of rcs...... are we really in a place where massive high print true base non parallel rcs with pop 10 psa rates in the 10-20k or more range are even desirable to collectors? If collectors aren’t the final buyer then it’s just “investors” playing musical chairs until someone is stuck having paid 1750 for a Giannis hoops psa 10 with a pop of 15k.

Where popularity meets rarity is where the money has always been and I’ve been saying it for years and years. At some point a collector needs to have a desire for the items these investors have. PSA is laughing every single day on the way to bank as they pocket 20 per on bass prizm vets. Sure, 12,13, and maybe 14 are either short printed or much less common than recent years..... but that ain’t what people are sending 100 copies a card of.

I just sit back and watch, the level of frustration of quick flip bass graders is comical as it seems people’s entire day outlook is based upon what the PSA complete through tracker has done overnight.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 21stguy

It‘s not simply about letting people go but rather about everything else to handle a gazillion times higher volume in submissions than before which makes it more difficult to adapt without putting up a gamble business wise.

The majority of the cards being sent in at the ultra low levels are not grading worthy and the actual origin of the whole issue. When people start sending in shitty rookies just to be able to flip for $20 higher than the grading fee is you know something is off.

Scaling to meet up demand in a market that exploded is risky and can be the beginning of a never ending story of ongoing issues.

You might have the worst business sense in the world. Can you imagine if Ray Kroc or Da Beers had thought like this? The time to expand is when there is excess demand. If PSA doesn't expand, someone else will take that business.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

I don’t disagree with your statement. I just feel like this is a different scenario. PSA has done nothing but further distance itself from everyone else during the worst times. Someone had a “usage” report of grading companies based on pop reports and psa had grown to like 80-85 percent of all card submissions from I think it was 60-65 five year ago.

Sales prices reflect PSA being much further ahead than before and they have pretty much taken over any sector of card sales. They have by far the greatest infrastructure and financial capabilities to handle the current issue. If someone else figures out a way PSA has the resources to mimic it..... but more than likely PSA will just do the best job of an overall crappy pool of options.... withstand the storm and price ultra modern accordingly in the future to deter what caused a huge portion of the problem.

The sooner people just move on and accept that nobody will “fix” this problem the better off they will be. The only short term fix is a true economic collapse where grading most things is a push or a money loss. Otherwise it’s a process that will take a year or more for PSA to decide what makes the most sense

I actually agree with the first part of you post re: the gold standard, but again, every gold standard company that has fallen has been in that position at some point. That's why they're the gold standard.

The bolded is flat out wrong and a poor way of thinking about it from PSA's point of view. Ultra modern is not a "problem". In fact it is a huge boon to the prospects of PSA's future business. They should be doing everything in their power to not only maintain this level of demand, but increase it!

The problem is it all happened so fast under asphyxiating public health restrictions. As those ease, the problem becomes more and more solvable. Hire more people, buy more equipment, churn out more slabs until the market tells you to stop.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Woodsy074

A lot of stuff including some mega cards are down quite a bit from their February highs. 80s basketball is down 50% - 60% as an example. It never should have gotten that high as quickly as it did IMO but very curious to see if things dip below their December pre-meteoric rise levels. If they do, it could be a free fall as "Investors" dump their stuff before they turn into big losses. Never thought cards would mirror stock technical analysis.

This is interesting. I've thought basketball and football could offer a glimpse in to the future offseason for baseball. I don't know that 80s basketball tells us much unless the modern guys have followed suit, but still a solid data point.

[21stguy]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

You might have the worst business sense in the world. Can you imagine if Ray Kroc or Da Beers had thought like this? The time to expand is when there is excess demand. If PSA doesn't expand, someone else will take that business.

Not everybody can be such a sharpshooter comparing a food business expansion to the situation PSA is in

[xtnimot]

Originally Posted by xtnimot

April 24th (Last Movement)

Walk-Through 20 Apr 2021
Super Express 13 Apr 2021
Express 16 Feb 2021
Regular 3 Feb 2021
Economy 3 Sept 2020
Reholder 30 Sept 2020
Collectors Club Vouchers 8 Sept 2020
Value - Ultra Modern 3 Sept 2020
Value - Modern 9 Aug 2020
Value - Vintage 15 Sept 2020
Value - TCG 15 Aug 2020
Quarterly Specials 3 Aug 2020

April 27th

Walk-Through 20 Apr 2021
Super Express 13 Apr 2021
Express 16 Feb 2021
Regular 3 Feb 2021
Economy 3 Sept 2020
Reholder 30 Sept 2020
Collectors Club Vouchers 8 Sept 2020
Value - Ultra Modern 3 Sept 2020
Value - Modern 9 Aug 2020
Value - Vintage 16 Sept 2020
Value - TCG 20 Aug 2020
Quarterly Specials 3 Aug 2020

[Woodsy074]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is interesting. I've thought basketball and football could offer a glimpse in to the future offseason for baseball. I don't know that 80s basketball tells us much unless the modern guys have followed suit, but still a solid data point.

Everything from the 80s / 90s/ 2000s is seeing similar declines whether its a 2003 Lebron Rookie or an 86 Topps Jerry Rice RC. Market definitely overheated and rose way too quickly in late January / early February. Can't speak to Ultra Modern stuff since I don't really follow it but wouldn't be shocked if there was a natural pulling back there as well even if its not as drastic.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I actually agree with the first part of you post re: the gold standard, but again, every gold standard company that has fallen has been in that position at some point. That's why they're the gold standard.

The bolded is flat out wrong and a poor way of thinking about it from PSA's point of view. Ultra modern is not a "problem". In fact it is a huge boon to the prospects of PSA's future business. They should be doing everything in their power to not only maintain this level of demand, but increase it!

The problem is it all happened so fast under asphyxiating public health restrictions. As those ease, the problem becomes more and more solvable. Hire more people, buy more equipment, churn out more slabs until the market tells you to stop.

Ultra modern base is a problem........ do we want Herbert, tua, burrow, etc being graded. Absolutely. Do we want every rc and every star base being graded across multiple sports. I would say no and I’ll explain.

Assuming you want pretty much every rc and every base star being graded is assuming the current activity level within the hobby is 100 percent normal and will continue indefinitely. If PSA were to continue and push excessively hard to hire expecting that normalcy they would put themselves in a huge bind down the road. Besides being incompetent, the biggest issue a business can face is growing too large too quick. Service, quality, availability all go to crap almost immediately and they just can’t stop the drowning. Ultimately people will get fed up and move on. In this case all the companies are in the expansion problem together and it’s a very niche business type. PSA will need to make a judgment decision on ultra modern. If longer term they think retail will be picked up by scalpers forever and every break will have any moderately decent base card graded.... then they can act accordingly. I do not think this will go on forever and frankly even if goes on another 2 years they will be working through all the stuff they have that long and can’t really afford to open the flood gates again in that time frame.

I’d price ultra modern at a point where people would send in good rookies, good vet parallels, cool inserts, or whatever else makes sense to have stable profit on the resale side. I would open at 45 per thinking that is a bit high but I’d need to see the volume submitted and then go from there. They need to position themselves for what stability will look like in this market down the road. I do t think 500k cards a week is stable

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Woodsy074

Everything from the 80s / 90s/ 2000s is seeing similar declines whether its a 2003 Lebron Rookie or an 86 Topps Jerry Rice RC. Market definitely overheated and rose way too quickly in late January / early February. Can't speak to Ultra Modern stuff since I don't really follow it but wouldn't be shocked if there was a natural pulling back there as well even if its not as drastic.

I don't disagree however this time of year is typically a little slow aside from some baseball prospects, younger NBA players, and maybe a hockey card or two. The NFL Draft coming this week typically kickstarts football buying.

[CheapThief]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

Ultra modern base is a problem........ do we want Herbert, tua, burrow, etc being graded. Absolutely. Do we want every rc and every star base being graded across multiple sports. I would say no and I’ll explain.

Assuming you want pretty much every rc and every base star being graded is assuming the current activity level within the hobby is 100 percent normal and will continue indefinitely. If PSA were to continue and push excessively hard to hire expecting that normalcy they would put themselves in a huge bind down the road. Besides being incompetent, the biggest issue a business can face is growing too large too quick. Service, quality, availability all go to crap almost immediately and they just can’t stop the drowning. Ultimately people will get fed up and move on. In this case all the companies are in the expansion problem together and it’s a very niche business type. PSA will need to make a judgment decision on ultra modern. If longer term they think retail will be picked up by scalpers forever and every break will have any moderately decent base card graded.... then they can act accordingly. I do not think this will go on forever and frankly even if goes on another 2 years they will be working through all the stuff they have that long and can’t really afford to open the flood gates again in that time frame.

I’d price ultra modern at a point where people would send in good rookies, good vet parallels, cool inserts, or whatever else makes sense to have stable profit on the resale side. I would open at 45 per thinking that is a bit high but I’d need to see the volume submitted and then go from there. They need to position themselves for what stability will look like in this market down the road. I do t think 500k cards a week is stable

Dropping prices is easier said than done. What happens to all the subs in queue at $45/per when PSA realizes they've set their price point too high, and decide to drop the price to $20 per? You're going to have thousands of either ticked off customers, and/or a deluge of cancelled orders.

PSA got to where they are by being a price leader (at least among reputable TCG's), and by offering more/better ancillary services than their competitors (functioning pop report, set registry, tamper-proof slabs, etc). I can't think that the last 12 months will make them rethink the business model that kept them at the top of the heap for the last 20 years.

[zact]

PSA built their business a large part because of the registry. I don’t know the exact numbers vintage vs modern to but there is prodigious “ value “ in vintage registry sets. I hope that psa takes that into consideration for the future. All of my collection is in vintage registry sets, and for me to continue to participate and build these sets, I would need to submit at a reasonable price point.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Dropping prices is easier said than done. What happens to all the subs in queue at $45/per when PSA realizes they've set their price point too high, and decide to drop the price to $20 per? You're going to have thousands of either ticked off customers, and/or a deluge of cancelled orders.

PSA got to where they are by being a price leader (at least among reputable TCG's), and by offering more/better ancillary services than their competitors (functioning pop report, set registry, tamper-proof slabs, etc). I can't think that the last 12 months will make them rethink the business model that kept them at the top of the heap for the last 20 years.

I don’t disagree..... but at 45 the massive volume of burrow, tua, Trevor, fields, Wilson, insert whatever bball rcs you want.... they will be sent in. PSA needs to get some feel about what is going to happen. At that point they can have specials across the board. Prizm bball at 25 per, non football qbs at 25 per, 18 per Pokemon, they have the ability to do whatever they need to. I personally think 35 is a good number per card, but based on 2021 so far I feel like they must have some sort of caution here.

If they can handle ultra modern at 45 and get it done in 4 months let’s say..... while maybe economy is 75, regular 125, and express/super express are just blended together at 200...: and they can handle those on fair tile frames in relation to the 4 months.... then I don’t really think there would be feasible other other for return value. It would be psa or waste money on another grader.

It’s a lot to deal with and only they know the true details to what particular cards are causing the most strain. Finding the balance of cost/benefit for their business will ultimately end up being the answer. There just won’t be a resolution people like in the current environment. It’s just not possible or someone would be doing it

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by letsgocapitals

Things are... getting worse.

we still haven't even checked in the majority of backlog... 90s junk boom from Feb, pre-price hike in early March, pre-shutdown in late March. Plus everyone just building bigger and bigger stacks to send in once they open back up

[overboosted]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

we still haven't even checked in the majority of backlog... 90s junk boom from Feb, pre-price hike in early March, pre-shutdown in late March. Plus everyone just building bigger and bigger stacks to send in once they open back up

Yeah man, when that motherload from the price hike starts getting logged and then the shutdown cards, these value numbers will double

[pachyderm]

Originally Posted by overboosted

Yeah man, when that motherload from the price hike starts getting logged and then the shutdown cards, these value numbers will double

There is probably 1 million in Prism 2020 Basketball waiting to be submitted. The 2019 pop is already 900,000.

[HalfNipponese]

Blockbuster
Zenith
Motorola
JVC
AT&T (the first 2 incarnations, at&t is not the same company)
Netscape
Yahoo
IBM

I can go on an on. All these companies were the titans of their industries before they failed to adapt to consumer demand.