Would you rather...a thought experiment on comparative value (because why not)

[Tonic3]

Here's the thought experiment. You have $160,000 to spend on buying sealed wax and you find a person with stockpiles of high end boxes from various years (yes, I know this is unlikely but this is just for fun). The person says they will sell one of the products to you at the same price that Blowout is willing to pay/offering. You can only pick one product on which to spend the entire $160,000.
Would you rather have more lower end boxes or fewer higher end boxes?

FYI, The price is what BO is offering to buy them for. The quantity is the number you can buy with $160,000 (rounded to the nearest whole number).

Choice.......Basketball............................Price.......Quantity
A..............2003-04 UD Exquisite..........160,000.........1
B..............2016-17 Flawless FOTL...........3,000.........53
C..............2017-18 Flawless FOTL...........7,000.........23
D..............2017-18 NT FOTL...................4,000.........40
E..............2018-19 Flawless FOTL..........15,000.........11
F...............2018-19 NT FOTL.................16,000.........10
G..............2019-20 Eminence FOTL........40,000.........4
H..............2019-20 Flawless FOTL..........10,000........16
I...............2019-20 NT FOTL..................12,000........13

Choice.......Football................................Price.......Quantity
J...............2017 Prizm FOTL...................8,000.........20
K..............2017 NT FOTL.......................7,500.........21
L..............2018 NT FOTL........................3,500.........46
M..............2019 Flawless FOTL...............2,600.........62
N..............2019 NT FOTL.......................1,900.........84
O..............2020 NT FOTL.......................4,000.........40

Well what option do you choose and why?

Edit: This isn't necessarily meant to be which one can you resell for the largest profit, but I'm sure that will guide a lot of decisions.

[byronscott4ever]

B. Quantity wins out

[KhalDrogo]

F. Not even close.

[Giancarlo27]

A or F

[eastbayak]

I'd pick a basketball option because it's a more global sport than football (more exposure => more demand => more $).

Specific choice would really be influenced by which draft class I'm highest on (because that impacts demand, and thus, valuation of such wax). With that said, possessing a large quantity in a high-quality set can be a very good move too (even if the draft class isn't the best), as long as the draft class has significant talent.

At first look, I'm eyeing choices B, D, F or I.

I don't know what cards are redemptions for the given products (excluding Flawless) so let's just say that none are redemptions (obviously not true but that'd take some time to research and I don't want to put in that work for this exercise).

When comparing the numbers, I feel that 2017-18 NT FOTL is significantly undervalued compared to 2018-19/2019-20 NT FOTL although the latter two draft classes likely have the better "superstar" players. I feel like there's a decent amount of upside with 2017-18 NT FOTL at $4k per compared to the other plays (and NT trumps Flawless so that's why I decided on the former set).

So I'd go with choice D.

[drobfan8]

I was thinking one of the Flawless origninally.

But now I'm thinking 4 boxes of the best Designs there. Eminence. That would be some epic busting.

Otherwise I'd chase the 18/19 stuff for the Luka. Probably the best value there.

[tjforce]

K.

It features the key rookie card of who I consider to be the second greatest athlete in this group.

The fact I get 21 boxes instead of just 1 03 Exquisite box means I don't have to decide if I want to move it all at once... I could sell/trade piecemeal.

[bmf]

A. Exquisite ... king of all kings
2018-2019 is great stuff but I’d prefer Prizm first off the line.

[CJsHockeyCards]

I'm taking option F all day

[Sticks33]

I'd go with I.

I still have faith in the long-term potential in the 19-20 class. And in the FOTL boxes, there is a 50-60% chance for a vertical, /99 RPA in addition to the FOTL RPA. That, IMO, sets these boxes apart.

[Tonic3]

For the record....

I'm torn between F and K (there's probably a joke there somewhere)

[byronscott4ever]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

For the record....

I'm torn between F and K (there's probably a joke there somewhere)

U C a problem with that?

[Jay9Suited]

A for too many reasons to list.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

For the record....

I'm torn between F and K (there's probably a joke there somewhere)

Originally Posted by byronscott4ever

U C a problem with that?

[interestingcool]

Originally Posted by tjforce

lol to all of that

[yiguiri2002]

I don't collect nor know much about Football so I'll just focus on the basketball part.

- What are the biggest redemptions in each of the boxes?
- What's the print run for each?
- Can you mix boxes?

Based on that, I'll probably go E or F. Too many boxes to move for 16-17, big redemptions in 17-18 (if I recall correctly) and 19-20 feels overpriced. Exquisite would be my dark horse but I'll be terrified of holding a box that valuable.

[GOATMJ]

A. Exquisite

[Arianny_Fan]

A. Nothing like a potentially breaking the internet if MJ, Kobe, or Lebron is in there amongst other greats.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

F. Not even close.

We don't always agree, but 100% agree on this one.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I don't collect nor know much about Football so I'll just focus on the basketball part.

- What are the biggest redemptions in each of the boxes?
- What's the print run for each?
- Can you mix boxes?

Based on that, I'll probably go E or F. Too many boxes to move for 16-17, big redemptions in 17-18 (if I recall correctly) and 19-20 feels overpriced. Exquisite would be my dark horse but I'll be terrified of holding a box that valuable.

Originally Posted by Arianny_Fan

A. Nothing like a potentially breaking the internet if MJ, Kobe, or Lebron is in there amongst other greats.

IIRC>.. weren't MJ autos redemptions in 03 Exquisite?

[kingofsnake]

I would go B or C. No redemptions in Flawless and the earlier years seem to have better value than the Luka/Zion years.

[MavsRChamps]

I'll say B - 53 boxes of 16-17 Flawless ... Much easier to 5x your money there than anywhere else if they're kept sealed. I have more faith these boxes will go from $3,000 to $15,000 in 5-10 years than say for 2018-19 Flawless to go from $15,000 to $75,000 in 5-10 years. Sure the rookies are kind of lame, but the high end hits are still there.

Edit - though honestly it’s not practical anyway since I doubt Blowout has 53 Flawless boxes. But if they did you could control a decent percentage of the remaining market for the boxes I think (making prices go up due to scarcity)

[Tonic3]

Just wanted to thank everyone for the responses before this fades too far from memory. It was fun seeing what everyone would pick. I could've added more diverse choices from say baseball/golf/hockey/soccer but thought I'd keep it fairly simple.

It's nice to fantasize sometimes about swimming in a sea of expensive boxes