What is Your Hobby Strategy for the Next 12 Months?

[MogulSkier39]

I promise this is not intended to be another bubble thread, but I understand it might be construed as such.

I'm one of the people that returned to the hobby during COVID. Collected as a kid and played baseball into college. I'm now a professional with a baby of my own. My objectives are to have fun, make wise financial decisions, and leave a nice collection for my son - in equal measure.

Over the winter I spent as much as I was willing (as other speculate has been happening - money I would have spent on travel and entertainment) on a bunch of PSA 10 slabs of Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, and Fernando Tatis Jr. rookies. (Wish I had grabbed one or two Trouts). I picked up a good amount of base but some next tier stuff to - some refactors, foils, and a gold.

I thought I was getting in at a good time: February. I am learning the pre-season buying time is actually more like November and December. My plan was to sell all the base during the season and some of the next tier stuff to pay for the rest of the next tier stuff and then hold the remaining next tier stuff long term.

With everything I am seeing and reading about market trends, etc. I am realizing I will be lucky if I realize modest gains on the cards I do move this season, if at all. Adding all the fees to my purchases and all the fees to my sales, I have had very modest gains ($68 on an Acuna chrome base rookie yesterday, etc.) on the couple cards of I have sold. Frankly, some of the cards would be slightly underwater right now if I were to try and sell them.

Also, just from being on here, watching the cards I did purchase relative to other cards, and just thinking about the hobby in general, if I were to start at the beginning again I would definitely make some of the same purchases but also spend some of the money differently.

So, I am starting to adjust my perspective and think maybe I should just try to sell all the cards I purchased over the course of the season whenever I can make a small profit (with the hope that will be possible) and then wait for either there to be a better buying market in November/December or, if there is an actual bubble burst/or bargaining issue, a really good buying opportunity and start anew with what I have learned.

Basically, I am just looking for anyone to share their wisdom with me based on their experiences relative to what I have written. How do you calculate your timing relative to historic market trends and the possible issues on the horizon. I understand I am opening myself up to some wise comments re: "Here we go: the millionth bubble thread, etc." But if I get one response that causes me to consider a factor I have not yet considered, then I will be thankful.

If you made it this far, I appreciate your time. Thank you.

[thenwhatjk]

Gonna be interesting if the new money starts to leave as the world opens back up

[MogulSkier39]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

Gonna be interesting if the new money starts to leave as the world opens back up

I am an example of a person that came back, spent a good amount of money, does not plan to leave, really enjoys it, but also wants it to be financially wise - for what it's worth. Maybe I can offer perspective to anyone that wants to know what "those type of people" (haha) are thinking.

[ThoseBackPages]

i will keep collecting

[pskell02]

I plan on selling the hot stuff (Soto, Tatis, Acuna, etc.) and investing back into '20-'21 rookies/prospects. Sell high, buy low and hopefully repeat the process.

[JrFinest]

my goal is to sell as many smaller fish as I can and invest it in bigger rarer fish.

Certain cards will still command a premium. Bubble or not.

My advice would be to just have fun ,and at the same time keep reinvesting when you sell. Make it a goal to constantly upgrade what you have. I prefer vintage as its more steady. Some of the newer cards come with gambles.

Its hard to not sell expendable cardboard at this time.

[kabrune2]

I think of cards in the long term, what has MY research told me about player x, where his MiLB numbers good, is he debuting young, how is his k/bb rates, is there a clear path to playing time, these are all good indicators of possible HoF track success. However it may take years for the hobby to catch on, I’ll be holding Devers, Bregman, Goldschmidt, Arenado for years as I believe that aren’t close to peaking in price. However if I’m sitting on extras of Tatis, Guerrero, Yordan, maybe even Soto I may move some stuff as it’s hard to keep pricing that high long term and it’s always good to hedge, 1 bad hammy, broken bone, etc can ruin a season and tank a card’s value, at which time I may swoop in and buy to hold.

My rule of thumb is buy to hold, don’t ever buy to flip, after fees and adding in risk it’s very difficult to time the market correctly and make decent money over mere months, or even years. Also, if I’m ever spending $200+, I want a PSA 10 version in a refractor of some sort so I know the print run, scarcity will always hold value better (however it’s not guaranteed).

[chris_ac]

Sincere question, if you plan to have fun and leave the PC for your son which would be long term, why sell this year at all? To upgrade cards here and there is fine, but if any of the usual suspects does indeed have a great season, selling mid tier to buy a high tier will be tougher than it is today. I would just hold what you already have and be more selective going forward imho.

[EldoEsq]

Strategy? I collect what I like.

If it happens to be worth more later on, that's a bonus.

OP, you sound like this Board is a financial planner. Not one person here knows the right "strategy."

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[griffan15]

My plan is to cash in.

[JoeAdam]

EVERYTHING is at PSA. Don't want to extend myself any further. Once it comes back, it's all profit.

[patchgenie]

buy retail from target.

avoid garbage overpriced boxes

buy singles i like.

[MogulSkier39]

Originally Posted by chris_ac

Sincere question, if you plan to have fun and leave the PC for your son which would be long term, why sell this year at all? To upgrade cards here and there is fine, but if any of the usual suspects does indeed have a great season, selling mid tier to buy a high tier will be tougher than it is today. I would just hold what you already have and be more selective going forward imho.

I am not certain I will sell versus hold. I have just watched some compelling videos with seemingly solid research and evidence suggesting that right now might (a big might) be the highwater mark for a couple years for the cards I currently own. That has me thinking to get what I can and then try to buy again at a better buying time. Take the three Juan Soto US 300 PSA 10 Rainbow Foils I have. I like this card. I like the player. If he has even close to the clear people expect, I would like to leave one to my son. I bought all three through Myslabs, so I have nice round numbers: $2,000, $1,900, and $1,775. So the average cost per is $1,892. Some nights I might be able to sell one and make a small profit. Other nights (like tonight would be since the last sale was so low) I'd take a big hair cut. Most recent sales, starting with most recent, on Ebay are: $1,550, $1,875, $2,149, $2,250, $1,606, $1,750. Now, if I sold each one every time I could net a $100 on each sale and then, if the price is lower in the early winter (and that is the big if no one can really predict) that would be a smart play. (You can see why I started by saying this is not a bubble thread. Obviously, the possibility of a pop is a big factor in my thinking). Also, for example, I realize I wish I bought a Trout. Maybe I take the money from one of those and one or two other cards and buy a Trout PSA 10 Update RC, etc.

[MogulSkier39]

Originally Posted by EldoEsq

Strategy? I collect what I like.

If it happens to be worth more later on, that's a bonus.

OP, you sound like this Board is a financial planner. Not one person here knows the right "strategy."

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I don't mean to come off that way. Just looking for other perspectives to help inform my own.

[jjcan]

For the most part I am mostly holding or grading the quality cards that I have already have, just to increase value. I would rather just spend money on grading (any good company) than inflated wax, that cannot be bought close to retail.

The other bulk graded cards that I do not hold. I will sell and put that money in other assets, Stocks, Crypto, Cash, with only putting back 25% sales into sports cards and Pokemon Wax.

A lot of completed sets I have in hand I will break open and grade.

Then any new wax I can find (2021 topps) for close to msrp, Ill open to fill a habit and send singles to a cheaper/faster grading company, CSG.

Old collection non gradeable: The cheaper RAW cards (prospects, rcs, inserts) , $1 cards-$10. That 2 years ago were 0.25 cent/cent I want to move just at card shows, or put on ebay if the money is worth the effort.

I know a lot of people here have a lot of this stuff, (common jordans, bradys, etc) and I do not want to blow it out, like I would have 2 years ago.. ie take the 3200 ct box for $200. Will try and maximize the return, can always blow out at some later time.

Thats' the Plan, probably change tomorrow.

[kabrune2]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

EVERYTHING is at PSA. Don't want to extend myself any further. Once it comes back, it's all profit.

Lol, I’ve got about 700 cards there now, luckily 200 cards should be back to me in the next 30-45 days

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by kabrune2

Lol, I’ve got about 700 cards there now, luckily 200 cards should be back to me in the next 30-45 days

I feel like a lot of us are in the same boat. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Hopefully people buy them all.

[KSIGN]

Stay away from Walmart and Target.

[jbuck]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

I feel like a lot of us are in the same boat. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Hopefully people buy them all.

Probably a dumb question, but just getting back into the hobby. Are the long lead times people are seeing at PSA/BGS - causing an increase in price on the graded cards that are out there? I’ve noticed when I’m looking for newer bowman chromes - it seems the graded ones are at a much bigger premium than I would’ve thought


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[NYJNYYFan]

I feel like I keep moving the goalposts of what I want from my collection. I came back into the hobby this year, and originally had goals of collecting autos/rookies of some of my favorite Yankees and Jets players.

Once that was complete, I turned my sights on picking up raw RCs of some of the bigger players that I missed out on. Now, I'm trying my first attempt at sending those in for grading and to hold for now.

For the next 12 months I'm going to focus more on picking up rookies from the 2021 class and not looking back as much to pick up on things I missed. I also will focus more on quality over quantity and going for the refractor or silver version of the RC for 2/3 players instead of buying base cards for 10 players.

[LVDan]

In the future I’d recommend focusing on buying starting around July through December. As soon as it is impossible to put up monster MVP type numbers things start to sag and shift towards football. The majority of big price increases over the last couple years seem to happen on the basis of what is possible, not nearly as much on mid season performance trends. Hence Soto, Tatis, Acuna are all selling like like MVPs right now because they all have a good shot to take it. When we get to August, if it becomes clear that a couple of them won’t finish with a video game season stat line that is the time to start nosing around if you believe in them long term IMO.
They only give out one MVP award per league.
Just one bottom feeder’s opinion
The world needs ditch diggers too


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[MoreToppsPlease]

I’ll continue to save by not buying whatever is “hot” from flippers today, and consider buying it tomorrow at a reduced price when it’s no longer hot.

I’ll also save by not paying meaningful premiums for slabs.

I bet my savings this year will be greater than the earnings of most flippers this year

The FOMO is false!

[3rdpedal]

I have 5 specific cards that I've been buying everything I see of at a certain price point. All 5 check all my boxes. These are my "investment cards", and I will keep buying them until I think the market's caught on to them.

For my PC, I'm trying to stay focused on the lower number parallels for my 2019 Topps Update US197 obsession. Cole Tucker just got sent back down to the minors, so there's no speculation optimism at this point, I'm just obsessed with getting as many of them as I can.

Trying to stay 50/50 between flipping (which is truly fun and a hobby for me) and my PC (funded by my flips). When I find retail at MSRP on the rare occasion, I'll buy that for a rainy day too.

[hermanotarjeta]

My plan is to get rid of anything baseball before the end of the season.

Lockout/strike will happen next year.

[Biohazarddfl]

Oh yay, another bubble thread. How come none of these bubble threads are about how inaccurate every previous bubble thread has been for the past 2-3 years?

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