The Official NBA Regular Season Thread—-20/21 Edition

[ronaldkosh]

What do we see as the biggest stories of the season so far? Not cards, just the sport itself

Not the most compelling season, but not a bad one either. Here's what I've got...

1. Can the Nets superteam pull it off? Will Harden finally get a ring?
2. Will LeBron win a 5th title?
3. Surprise teams - will the Jazz get the 1 seed? Can the Knicks make the playoffs?

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

professional analysts have them as a playoff team preseason and we should applaud them for being 9th in their conference?

We should be watching Steph Curry play and understand directly how good he's been while also recognizing the specific issues his teammates have, rather than looking at the standings and thinking we can pinpoint specifically how good or bad Curry is based on team results.

I said this recently on another thread: If you've been doing analysis of players simply based on team records and trying to decide what that says about a player, you've basically been taking a short cut to analysis that isn't valid as a final analysis. You can use the approach to get your bearing and figure out what questions to ask, but it shouldn't be the whole shebang.

I see you said Curry should make these players better, which is an expression we hear a lot in the NBA. It's not a horrible statement to make in general, but when you look within a team you have to be more precise. Curry gives teammates more openings, but he cannot make a guy hit an open shot or recognize the opportunity to drive to the hole quick enough, there's no good reason to pin that on anything other than the player missing the open look.

You also mention Wiseman. Rookies suck, by and large, as a rule. They don't know what they are supposed to be doing out there. An athletic big can get rebounds and put them in the basket, but savvy players are doing valuable things during the 90% of the time they don't have the ball, not just when the opportunity comes to do the one thing they do know how to do.

This is part of a more general rule: Stats in general overrate young and dumb guys and underrate old man savvy. Why? Because the easiest stuff to identify for a player is also the easiest stuff to count for a scorekeeper. The stuff a scorekeeper can't track is what you're expecting veterans to figure out as they go.

None of this is to say I'm advocating for Curry as MVP, but if you think this year has revealed something very negative about Curry based team W-L record, you're going about things a bit backwards.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by Tallboy

We should be watching Steph Curry play and understand directly how good he's been while also recognizing the specific issues his teammates have, rather than looking at the standings and thinking we can pinpoint specifically how good or bad Curry is based on team results.

I said this recently on another thread: If you've been doing analysis of players simply based on team records and trying to decide what that says about a player, you've basically been taking a short cut to analysis that isn't valid as a final analysis. You can use the approach to get your bearing and figure out what questions to ask, but it shouldn't be the whole shebang.

I see you said Curry should make these players better, which is an expression we hear a lot in the NBA. It's not a horrible statement to make in general, but when you look within a team you have to be more precise. Curry gives teammates more openings, but he cannot make a guy hit an open shot or recognize the opportunity to drive to the hole quick enough, there's no good reason to pin that on anything other than the player missing the open look.

You also mention Wiseman. Rookies suck, by and large, as a rule. They don't know what they are supposed to be doing out there. An athletic big can get rebounds and put them in the basket, but savvy players are doing valuable things during the 90% of the time they don't have the ball, not just when the opportunity comes to do the one thing they do know how to do.

This is part of a more general rule: Stats in general overrate young and dumb guys and underrate old man savvy. Why? Because the easiest stuff to identify for a player is also the easiest stuff to count for a scorekeeper. The stuff a scorekeeper can't track is what you're expecting veterans to figure out as they go.

None of this is to say I'm advocating for Curry as MVP, but if you think this year has revealed something very negative about Curry based team W-L record, you're going about things a bit backwards.

you make some very good points, thank you for taking the time. ive heard for years how curry is the game changer, makes everyone around him better, and is a true winner. its fair criticism to point out that he and the warriors are underperforming this year. steph has been great this year, but its not leading to much team/teammate success. but i appreciate you taking on my posts with reasonable discussion. its the usual people that have issue with anything a lebron fan says. its funny, i had the kobe logo for almost a year and had reasonable discussion when i posted things, now that its a lebron avatar people are chomping at the bit.

[Erikthredd]

It’s incredibly ironic when you look at GS & LAL from an even playing field this season missing the second best player on each team,Anthony Davis & Klay Thompson. Just counting games played without each player,GS actually has a higher winning percentage than LA does.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

your point has failed when you have to exaggerate what i said. they are not world beaters just good enough that when being lead by curry/kerr they should be easily in the playoff picture. professional analysts and others on this forum agree with me, im not sure why you all are acting like im speaking a foreign language.

Professional analysts and “others on this forum” aren’t here to save you right now. You’re allowed to form your own thoughts and speak for yourself.

From my vantage point, you trolled yourself into a corner by not having anything to say in the first place.

[indyguy]

I'd have a hard time saying Golden State is under performing this season. It took a 3 game losing streak (one with Steph and Draymond sitting out) before the break to fall out of the playoff standings.

There were plenty of people on this forum at the beginning of the season burying the Warriors without Klay.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

Professional analysts and “others on this forum” aren’t here to save you right now. You’re allowed to form your own thoughts and speak for yourself.

From my vantage point, you trolled yourself into a corner by not having anything to say in the first place.

lol what? are you arguing just to argue. i literally did what you said. i formed my own opinion (golden state underperforming) and then when called out like i was in fantasy land, i found evidence to back up my opinion and others chimed in. youre vantage point is off if asking will the warriors make the playoffs and pointing out they are underperforming in the regular season thread is trolling. i would agree with you if i was blowing up the team thread saying this stuff.

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

you make some very good points, thank you for taking the time. ive heard for years how curry is the game changer, makes everyone around him better, and is a true winner. its fair criticism to point out that he and the warriors are underperforming this year. steph has been great this year, but its not leading to much team/teammate success. but i appreciate you taking on my posts with reasonable discussion. its the usual people that have issue with anything a lebron fan says. its funny, i had the kobe logo for almost a year and had reasonable discussion when i posted things, now that its a lebron avatar people are chomping at the bit.

I appreciate you taking my comments in stride when you could have easily gotten defensive. Good on you!

Re: LeBron avatar. I don't really think that's the issue here. The specific thing is that you posted a negative conclusion about a player based on top-down thinking. Negativity will tend to cause people to come back negative at you, and doing so in a top-down fashion tends to make it worse.

It's conceivable that having a Kobe avatar might scare some folks off - no fans in basketball are known for being as viciously loyal as Kobe fans - but the general response of negativity out from negativity in is an internet wide trap I've fallen into all too often.

Best,
Tallboy

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

Professional analysts and “others on this forum” aren’t here to save you right now. You’re allowed to form your own thoughts and speak for yourself.

From my vantage point, you trolled yourself into a corner by not having anything to say in the first place.

I wanted to piggy back off this, though I'm not looking to pile on:

What I see in general from sports fans is a combination of 1) a need to be able to talk confidently as if they are an expert due to the fact they've been following said sport for decades, along with 2) gaps in understanding that they are secretly ashamed of.

For myself, I grew up surrounded by sports in my family, but they were always pretty casual in their analysis. This makes it very hard for me to watch sports with an intense real-time eye the way others can do. That's a limitation that's at times hard to admit.

I'm also someone who was naturally very talented at basketball, but due to issues with asthma, I missed the window during adolescence where I would have gotten access to formal training. Hence, there's a working vocabulary that those with more formal training have that I lack.

With both of these things, I've done what I can to catch up, but no matter how much I learn, I try to avoid overreach and try to be quick to admit when I'm wrong, because I know it's still happening in avenues I don't realize I have an issue. Not saying I'm always this model of maturity - far from it - but I find that if I focus on making smaller conclusions based on actual basketball, along with the formulation of questions, I can hang with the heavyweights without really worrying about being exposed.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by ronaldkosh

What do we see as the biggest stories of the season so far? Not cards, just the sport itself

Not the most compelling season, but not a bad one either. Here's what I've got...

1. Can the Nets superteam pull it off? Will Harden finally get a ring?
2. Will LeBron win a 5th title?
3. Surprise teams - will the Jazz get the 1 seed? Can the Knicks make the playoffs?

If the Nets don't win it this year it will be a massive failure. I have my doubts though.

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by ronaldkosh

What do we see as the biggest stories of the season so far? Not cards, just the sport itself

Not the most compelling season, but not a bad one either. Here's what I've got...

1. Can the Nets superteam pull it off? Will Harden finally get a ring?
2. Will LeBron win a 5th title?
3. Surprise teams - will the Jazz get the 1 seed? Can the Knicks make the playoffs?

Biggest things in basketball I'm seeing:

1. The Bubble of 2020 might go down as peak NBA when all is said and done. The quality of basketball was incredible, and the impact players had on the country (voting, etc) was profound. By contrast, the NBA of '20-21 feels small in comparison. Players pretty miserable just dealing with the arduous ordeal of getting tested for Covid all the time and being unable to enjoy their road trips like they've always done in the past, along with some of the selfishness we're seeing, led by the Brooklyn trio and what they did to their previous teams.

2. This also means the absolute bummer of seeing players come back to earth. Jamal Murray is the poster boy for this. I think it's so important not to dismiss what he did in the Bubble as if it wasn't real. It was absolutely real...but that doesn't mean he can stay in that flow always.

3. On the other hand, we are seeing Zion come back to life, so that's really cool. Still really hard to know what his ceiling is, but once again he feels like the freakiest physical freak we've ever seen play basketball.

4. The Nets are looking like they might be able to win a title on offense alone now that we see Harden evolve into more of a pass-first point guard. Harden's talent for taking on new roles is astounding and a bit maddening given that he really seemed to be trapped in a particular mindset in Houston that made that ending there pretty much unavoidable.

5. 76ers at the top seed feels like they're finally taking the leap...but their SRS is not massive, and even with the (extremely important addition) of Curry & Green's shooting, they still aren't taking 3's at the rate to create the spacing that would be ideal for either Embiid or Simmons. If they don't have another switch to flip, they might prove fool's gold, which is rough, because every additional year of the Embiid/Simmons experiment may end up simply seen as wasted time in the end. Really not meant as hate toward either Embiid or Simmons, but they still aren't a good fit for each other.

6. The Jazzmen cometh. Really something the way they've clicked this season, and it's actually kinda in line with Conley's entire career. He's not the quickest learner, but he does learn actively and without ego how to support the players around him. There's still the issue that Gobert isn't actually able to stop top tier interior scorers and Mitchell isn't a top tier offensive alpha. Won't shock me at all if they hit a matchup in the playoffs that they just can't handle, but nobody's functioning better as a team right now than them.

7. Lakers? If healthy, still the favorite, and it has a lot to do with AD being a playoff matchup skeleton-key. Against basically everyone other than Jokic or Embiid (and eventually Zion perhaps), AD can get the best of both sides of the ball.

8. Re: Jokic. Possibly the best player in the world now, but unless either Murray or Porter play like clear cut stars, the Nuggets don't feel like a contender.

9. Steph still has it. Period. It was always weird to me that people thought he was done given that he's really not that old and shooting generally ages pretty well, but yeah, no doubt. If he, Dray & Klay are all good next year, they're going to be a frightening opponent again.

10. Clippers remain a serious threat. More serious than last year when they folded like a house of cards? Hard to tell.

11. Bucks look worse than previous years, but wouldn't shock me if they're actually a tougher playoff matchup now. We'll see.

12. Phoenix is beginning to look like a plausible contender. They're the #2 seed right now. If they were to get to the WCF, that would be a big deal.

13. LaMelo can actually play. Huh.

[cboog3105]

Pending final bloodwork, free agent forward Ersan Ilyasova will sign vet min deal w/the Jazz tomorrow, per sources. Ilyasova has already gone through Covid protocol. The 33-year-old played in 63 games last season for the Bucks, averaging 6.6 PPG (36.5 percent 3s) / 4.8 REBS.

[oshmeehan]

Originally Posted by cboog3105

Pending final bloodwork, free agent forward Ersan Ilyasova will sign vet min deal w/the Jazz tomorrow, per sources. Ilyasova has already gone through Covid protocol. The 33-year-old played in 63 games last season for the Bucks, averaging 6.6 PPG (36.5 percent 3s) / 4.8 REBS.

Honestly thought he'd re-up with the Bucks....but glad he is back and with a contender too

[Dame]

Nets schedule is even easier in the second half. Hype gonna through the roof.

[rhigh2390]

Originally Posted by Dame

Nets schedule is even easier in the second half. Hype gonna through the roof.

I want to see their 3 play together most of the second half. Crazy that they've only played 7 games together.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by rhigh2390

I want to see their 3 play together most of the second half. Crazy that they've only played 7 games together.

They literally have an All Star lineup. The easy schedule favors them as they integrate KD Blakey and maybe Drummond in the rotation.


BTW: Lol @ Meyers Leonard. No excuse for that one.

[tjforce]

Mid season predictions (off the cuff edition):

-Jazz fall back to earth at some point. They've been one of the healthiest teams in the NBA. They don't have a true super star to carry them when things get tough. Unless they can add a legit tough wing defender to slow down the like of LeBron, Kawhi, PG13,etc, they aren't looked at as a serious contenders for too long. Now, this doesn't mean they don't still end up a top 2 seed.

-All the Lakers concerns go away before the playoffs and they are ready to go. I'm not saying they won't be beat, just that they'll be primed come playoff time

-Nuggets continue to climb and wind up a top 4 seed (meaning either the Clippers, Lakers, or Suns struggle a bit down the stretch

-Hawnks sneak into the play in round. Blowout rejoices. However, Trae prices don't pass all time highs because of it like I saw one guy mention

-Philly looks like the team to beat with some big time wins over the likes of the Bucks, Nets, Lakers, etc.... but something inevitably goes wrong (Covid, Injuries, Alien Abduction) and their titles dreams are dashed


These are all off the cuff predictions with little thought put into them and I reserve the right to change my mind at any time... even as I am rereading this for the first time!

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Tallboy

Biggest things in basketball I'm seeing:

1. The Bubble of 2020 might go down as peak NBA when all is said and done. The quality of basketball was incredible, and the impact players had on the country (voting, etc) was profound. By contrast, the NBA of '20-21 feels small in comparison. Players pretty miserable just dealing with the arduous ordeal of getting tested for Covid all the time and being unable to enjoy their road trips like they've always done in the past, along with some of the selfishness we're seeing, led by the Brooklyn trio and what they did to their previous teams.

2. This also means the absolute bummer of seeing players come back to earth. Jamal Murray is the poster boy for this. I think it's so important not to dismiss what he did in the Bubble as if it wasn't real. It was absolutely real...but that doesn't mean he can stay in that flow always.

3. On the other hand, we are seeing Zion come back to life, so that's really cool. Still really hard to know what his ceiling is, but once again he feels like the freakiest physical freak we've ever seen play basketball.

4. The Nets are looking like they might be able to win a title on offense alone now that we see Harden evolve into more of a pass-first point guard. Harden's talent for taking on new roles is astounding and a bit maddening given that he really seemed to be trapped in a particular mindset in Houston that made that ending there pretty much unavoidable.

5. 76ers at the top seed feels like they're finally taking the leap...but their SRS is not massive, and even with the (extremely important addition) of Curry & Green's shooting, they still aren't taking 3's at the rate to create the spacing that would be ideal for either Embiid or Simmons. If they don't have another switch to flip, they might prove fool's gold, which is rough, because every additional year of the Embiid/Simmons experiment may end up simply seen as wasted time in the end. Really not meant as hate toward either Embiid or Simmons, but they still aren't a good fit for each other.

6. The Jazzmen cometh. Really something the way they've clicked this season, and it's actually kinda in line with Conley's entire career. He's not the quickest learner, but he does learn actively and without ego how to support the players around him. There's still the issue that Gobert isn't actually able to stop top tier interior scorers and Mitchell isn't a top tier offensive alpha. Won't shock me at all if they hit a matchup in the playoffs that they just can't handle, but nobody's functioning better as a team right now than them.

7. Lakers? If healthy, still the favorite, and it has a lot to do with AD being a playoff matchup skeleton-key. Against basically everyone other than Jokic or Embiid (and eventually Zion perhaps), AD can get the best of both sides of the ball.

8. Re: Jokic. Possibly the best player in the world now, but unless either Murray or Porter play like clear cut stars, the Nuggets don't feel like a contender.

9. Steph still has it. Period. It was always weird to me that people thought he was done given that he's really not that old and shooting generally ages pretty well, but yeah, no doubt. If he, Dray & Klay are all good next year, they're going to be a frightening opponent again.

10. Clippers remain a serious threat. More serious than last year when they folded like a house of cards? Hard to tell.

11. Bucks look worse than previous years, but wouldn't shock me if they're actually a tougher playoff matchup now. We'll see.

12. Phoenix is beginning to look like a plausible contender. They're the #2 seed right now. If they were to get to the WCF, that would be a big deal.

13. LaMelo can actually play. Huh.

If you aren't an NBA writer/columnist, maybe you should be. You're basically saying what we were all either thinking or not yet thinking.

[brothertona]

So yeah I think Meyers Leonard is going to get released.

[escapegoat]

i cant root against the nets any harder now lol, it’s just getting comical at this point.

Harden, then Griffin, and now possibly Drummond?


please let them somehow get bounced in the first round.

[Akphillips86]

I don’t want to rain on the parade of Jazz doubters, but their schedule was front loaded and they STILL have the best record in basketball. If they come back to earth, I wouldn’t bank on it happening in the second half of the season unless Gobert or Mitchell get injured.

Don’t forget Conley was out several games already. The Jazz are so deep that unless they lose their engine (Mitchell) or their interior presence (Gobert), they will be a VERY serious contender.

Also, as those that actually follow the Jazz can attest to, Mitchell can be streaky, but he is more than capable of putting the team on his back in clutch scenarios. He usually switches gears in the second half and brings that killer instinct even if he started the game cold as ice. Yeah, yeah he didn’t pull it off against Philly, but that’s more the exception than the rule.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

[QUOTE=Tallboy;17087237]Biggest things in basketball I'm seeing:



5. 76ers at the top seed feels like they're finally taking the leap...but their SRS is not massive, and even with the (extremely important addition) of Curry & Green's shooting, they still aren't taking 3's at the rate to create the spacing that would be ideal for either Embiid or Simmons. If they don't have another switch to flip, they might prove fool's gold, which is rough, because every additional year of the Embiid/Simmons experiment may end up simply seen as wasted time in the end. Really not meant as hate toward either Embiid or Simmons, but they still aren't a good fit for each other.

/QUOTE]

I think things like SRS are to be taken with a grain of salt at this point.

This was such a weird first half of the year due to scheduling, the lack of preseason, and Covid.

If you look at SRS, it has the Jazz, Suns, and Bucks numbers 1, 2, and 3.

Meanwhile, 6, 7, and 8 are the Nets, Lakers, and 76ers.

The Nets and Lakers have been without a top 5 or so player in the league for a decent chunk of the season.

Meanwhile, the 76ers are 21-5 with Embiid and Simmons in the lineup together. Just 3-9 without.

You are always going to have this injury dynamic at play... I just have the feeling like it's a little more exaggerated this year due to the situation we're in.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

I don’t want to rain on the parade of Jazz doubters, but their schedule was front loaded and they STILL have the best record in basketball. If they come back to earth, I wouldn’t bank on it happening in the second half of the season unless Gobert or Mitchell get injured.

Don’t forget Conley was out several games already. The Jazz are so deep that unless they lose their engine (Mitchell) or their interior presence (Gobert), they will be a VERY serious contender.

Also, as those that actually follow the Jazz can attest to, Mitchell can be streaky, but he is more than capable of putting the team on his back in clutch scenarios. He usually switches gears in the second half and brings that killer instinct even if he started the game cold as ice. Yeah, yeah he didn’t pull it off against Philly, but that’s more the exception than the rule.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My big issue with the Jazz is the league make up, and that when the game slows down they don't have a guy who can defend the guys I listed above.

Their two options for guarding guys like LeBron, Kawhi, PG, Giannis, Simmons, Durant, etc are Royce O'neal and Joe Ingles.

Royce is 6'4". Ingles is Ingles. If they could change that by getting some sort of a stopper for these guys, I'd be much more bullish on them having a chance at a title.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I think things like SRS are to be taken with a grain of salt at this point.

This was such a weird first half of the year due to scheduling, the lack of preseason, and Covid.

If you look at SRS, it has the Jazz, Suns, and Bucks numbers 1, 2, and 3.

Meanwhile, 6, 7, and 8 are the Nets, Lakers, and 76ers.

The Nets and Lakers have been without a top 5 or so player in the league for a decent chunk of the season.

Meanwhile, the 76ers are 21-5 with Embiid and Simmons in the lineup together. Just 3-9 without.

You are always going to have this injury dynamic at play... I just have the feeling like it's a little more exaggerated this year due to the situation we're in.

I think SRS tells you a lot.

Look at the Sixers SRS with and without Embiid. What does it tell you? That he should probably be MVP, takes an average team to championship contender by himself.

Compare the Nets and Lakers SRS. Harden/Durant have missed 32 combined games compared to AD's 14. It tells you that the Nets ceiling is way higher than the Lakers.

SRS is not perfect on its own (no stat is) but once you go into the details, it tells you a lot about a team.

[Kingofkings1281]

If the Nets can’t win a championship with a starting 5 of Irving, Harden, KD, Griffin and Drummond then I don’t know what to say. That would just be kind of sad. They should at least get out of the east easily.