Will Panini try and replicate Top Shot?

[ArmyDC]

First I don’t collect NBA, but the crazy amount of action on Top Shot had me looking at it. I don’t think Panini blockchain can replicate what Top Shot has going on.. but my question is will this help/hurt hobby card industry with a new take on trading cards pulling the younger demo out? Or does this craze limit itself to NBA?

[JeremyNick]

Of course they will.

NFL BotShot.
Dutch Auction style pack drops.
Redemptions for moments that will never happen (Dwayne Haskins throws his first TD as a Steeler)
Somehow the corners will all be dinged.

[KBA]

Top Shot and it’s popularity makes me almost feel like a dinosaur staring up at the meteor. The commoditization of cards with grading was one thing, but digital videos that are numbered and instantly traded like cryptocurrency? Uh oh.

Thoughts:

-you don’t need insurance/secure storage on your investment/collectable
-grading and the price/wait goes out the window
-shipping/receiving is taken out of the equation
-they can ‘mine’ the history of the league

Who knows— hypernormalization has numbed me to any surprise/twist/turn the future can serve up, and if this kind of thing eventually replaces physical sports cards with new generations, I’ll be mostly non-reactive to that too. It just makes me want to hug my canvas Impeccable cards.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by KBA

Top Shot and it’s popularity makes me almost feel like a dinosaur staring up at the meteor. The commoditization of cards with grading was one thing, but digital videos that are numbered and instantly traded like cryptocurrency? Uh oh.

Thoughts:

-you don’t need insurance/secure storage on your investment/collectable
-grading and the price/wait goes out the window
-shipping/receiving is taken out of the equation
-they can ‘mine’ the history of the league

Who knows— hypernormalization has numbed me to any surprise/twist/turn the future can serve up, and if this kind of thing eventually replaces physical sports cards with new generations, I’ll be mostly non-reactive to that too. It just makes me want to hug my canvas Impeccable cards.

This is exactly me as well. I just cant get my head around it.

I remember, almost 10 years ago, both Upper Deck and Panini did those video cards.

They were actual little TV's that played a video of the player. Panini even went as far as to get those screens signed by the player.

I thought that was cool, and the next evolution of cards.

Never did I think I'd see the day, where they would throw the hard asset of the card itself away, and give you nothing but a video and picture link, and people would go crazy for that.

We aren't talking about stocks or cryptocurrency here. Collecting was always about finding, owning, displaying and trading something in hand. I don't care if that was stamps, coins, cards or beanie babies. It was at least something tangible.

I started collecting in the 80's as a kid. And got sucked back in in the late 90's, with the advent of memorabilia cards and all the autographed cards that were out there. To actually own a card signed by Johnny Unitus, or one with a swatch from Walter Payton's jersey was way cool to me. Those were actual "things". This new trend is not.

[pazerbaijan]

Originally Posted by Grid

We aren't talking about stocks or cryptocurrency here. Collecting was always about finding, owning, displaying and trading something in hand. I don't care if that was stamps, coins, cards or beanie babies. It was at least something tangible.

This is still in play, but the key part is "displaying." Instagram and TikTok are driving the new generation of collectors, and it doesn't matter if the collectible they're showing off is tangible or not. As long as the status of owning something is recognized by a group, it's going to have the same prestige as owning a physical object.

[KBA]

Originally Posted by Grid

I started collecting in the 80's as a kid. And got sucked back in in the late 90's, with the advent of memorabilia cards and all the autographed cards that were out there. To actually own a card signed by Johnny Unitus, or one with a swatch from Walter Payton's jersey was way cool to me. Those were actual "things". This new trend is not.

That’s a really interesting point, things in the physical. In the hobby today I see mem cards that have gone past the point where I initially lost interest; from ‘game used’, to ‘player worn’ and now to simply ‘authentic memorabilia’. And they still sell. That’s something that signals things have had a major shift.

Then I think of the generations that will never have bought a tape or CD of their favourite album, never had the feeling of owning a physical copy of a special edition movie— those nifty little touches they would put into the packaging. It’s all streaming. Young kids look at me weird when I even mention ‘downloading’. Digital space is where they hang-out. The scroll. Top Shot fits right in there. And it’s popularity is certainly something to be noted.

[ArmyDC]

Top Shot has some insane prices for these things, I don’t know how liquid those assets are though? As with most crypto it’s pretty difficult to get exchange into cash. I follow some of the meme stocks and it seems like this top shot is where some of the kids that are investing in them are putting their crypto investments. The part that worries me is we have seen some insane prices for the past year in some cards and is that going to continue if some of these kids move on from sports cards to crypto Top Shot, Doge, Meme Stocks etc.. it’s one of the pitfalls of grading companies not turning these flippers cards around quick enough, eventually the market elasticity breaks and they move onto one of these new things..

[Archangel1775]

Panini is a trading card company. They'd have to start a separate company or partner with a similar one to do what Dapper Labs is doing. I just don't see that happening. From a business perspective, I don't see why the NFL would license a trading card company to do what Dapper Labs is doing with the NBA. It'll be a cash cow for them. Let's say the trading card industry tanks and Panini goes bankrupt....that's taking two sources of income away from the NFL and NFL Players Association.

[byronscott4ever]

Does Panini need to mess with its money printing business?

[2010GBPackers]

A "Top Shot"-type product may take over soon, but from what I can gather, the current version is a Ponzi scheme. Once the NBA, NFL, and MLB actually licenses a product whose distribution is controlled, there may be something there. It's going to have to be more than random "moments" though. Where I see this going is having the player to color commentary over the clip for it to become really valuable. It's really difficult for me to imagine simple highlights anyone can readily see online has a market; they need something extra.

I could be totally wrong though. I will say, as skeptical as I was initially, I am starting to understand the current generation (whose whole life is lived in a virtual world) would value these blockchain moments over actual cards. It's not for me, but I do see a market for it.

[patchgenie]

no, their website barely works as it is.

[bradical]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Panini is a trading card company. They'd have to start a separate company or partner with a similar one to do what Dapper Labs is doing. I just don't see that happening. From a business perspective, I don't see why the NFL would license a trading card company to do what Dapper Labs is doing with the NBA. It'll be a cash cow for them. Let's say the trading card industry tanks and Panini goes bankrupt....that's taking two sources of income away from the NFL and NFL Players Association.

See NFL Blitz app.

Panini is already trying to do it with their Blockchain releases, but Top Shot has a far superior business model.

Panini will absolutely rip off the idea. It's what they do best.

[JWBlue]

So are we talking a rookie video type thing?

[shootit]

Originally Posted by ArmyDC

Top Shot has some insane prices for these things, I don’t know how liquid those assets are though? As with most crypto it’s pretty difficult to get exchange into cash. I follow some of the meme stocks and it seems like this top shot is where some of the kids that are investing in them are putting their crypto investments. The part that worries me is we have seen some insane prices for the past year in some cards and is that going to continue if some of these kids move on from sports cards to crypto Top Shot, Doge, Meme Stocks etc.. it’s one of the pitfalls of grading companies not turning these flippers cards around quick enough, eventually the market elasticity breaks and they move onto one of these new things..

crypto is not pretty difficult to exchange for fiat usd/cash lol

top shot on the otherhand is a diff story

[knownas2letters]

For the money these clips are "selling for" you could get a player to shout you out in a post game interview.

[Paderborn1907]

Panini and Topps screwed up on their mobile apps due to the lack of a marketplace and lack of showcasing the cards.
They also fired digital cards out too frequently, so scarcity was not there (something Topshot might face as well).

Panini Blockchain has the scarcity and marketplace, I question the distributiona via physical products. How can they gain momentum when they end up first with those who don't like them?

Topshot did a lot of things right. Sorare for soccer is also coming up. More NFT's will be part of this hobby in one way or the other and something for the NFL will definetely happen.

[Paderborn1907]

Also this poll by Darren Rovel might not be representive, but it shows a good snapshot. With Topshot people are in it for the quick earnings and don't care so much about the actual product. This is never really good for sustainability and could lead into a crash. IMO Topshot grew too fast too big.
Physical cards are also in a bubble, but there're still enough left who care about the product so a crash is unlikely, but market corrections are to be expected.

Darren Rovell:
https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/sta...25521239760898

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Paderborn1907

Also this poll by Darren Rovel might not be representive, but it shows a good snapshot. With Topshot people are in it for the quick earnings and don't care so much about the actual product. This is never really good for sustainability and could lead into a crash. IMO Topshot grew too fast too big.
Physical cards are also in a bubble, but there're still enough left who care about the product so a crash is unlikely, but market corrections are to be expected.

Darren Rovell:
https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/sta...25521239760898

They, Dapper Labs, just had in influx of $250 Million from investors and it's current valuation is $2 billion. Demand is exactly what any company wants. I dont see how its a long term problem. That's when you expand with the only obstacle being money. That's not an obstacle right now, it just takes time. Once they scale to where they need to, they can take NBA Top Shot to where they envision it. It wouldn't surprise me if they got the NFL to jump on board afterwards.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by bradical

See NFL Blitz app.

Panini is already trying to do it with their Blockchain releases, but Top Shot has a far superior business model.

Panini will absolutely rip off the idea. It's what they do best.

NFL Blitz utilizes blockchain technology and is licensed by the NFL to do highlight video clips/moments? People smarter than me know better than to license a company to do something outside of their area of expertise. None of the projects Panini has done is particularly successful.

Their last online football release, 180 plus sets were purchases by bots. There were only 199 sets. They were sold out in seconds...their response.."We are aware of the bots and are doing our best...."....and it's been happening for over a year.... .do you really think Panini has the capability to handle something similar to NBA Top Shot if they are incapable of a solution to that issue? It's out of their league.

[Paderborn1907]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

They, Dapper Labs, just had in influx of $250 Million from investors and it's current valuation is $2 billion. Demand is exactly what any company wants. I dont see how its a long term problem. That's when you expand with the only obstacle being money. That's not an obstacle right now, it just takes time. Once they scale to where they need to, they can take NBA Top Shot to where they envision it. It wouldn't surprise me if they got the NFL to jump on board afterwards.

Not talking about Dapper Labs as a company, I think they did a tremendous job with Topshot. It's more that 95% of their Topshot moments are total crap and only valued that high because of the current hype (of course that's not their fault).

I think a debut Zion block moment is indeed cool, even with the high numbered tiers. A bench warmer layup numbered to 5k out of 15k is not cool and never will. The vast majority of the moments are the latter.

I really like NFT's and I was fascinated by Topps Huddle when they got the NFL license (actually most of those were no real NFT's).
While Topps never thought about the market place and didn't have a great overall concept, there was a community always large enough to sell out almost all releases.
At the beginning almost every new set was hot and everybody wanted to chase the awards, high numbered Digital cards were sold out immediately and every new release was always the hottest.
Again there was no real currency so you had to trade with older cards when you missed out on the gamble, people gave you 4-5 of the older stuff for the new releases.
Demand was extremely high and Topps increased the release with more parralels and reduced the scarcity of the cards and at the end only 1 of 1's did really matter, everything else had no value.

Topps Huddle meanwhlie lost the license for the NFL and is a ghost town. This all happened in a much smaller realm than Topshot, but many people were already fascinated by digital cards at that time.

Kudos to all who could gain some nice profits, but I'm not as optimistic that it will last for very long with this kind of numbers.

[Brad]

The vast majority of these NFTs will wind up essentially worthless, especially if (when) the market gets flooded.

But in the meantime, you can make some serious $ on the flip. I literally made over $10k this weekend flipping two digital art NFTs on Nifty Gateway. I’ve also made a decent amount on TopShot. If you know what to buy, how to increase your odds of being able to buy (for things like random drawings) and when to sell, you can cash in before the eventual implosion of most of these items.

There are a lot of whales buying these early $$$ items up, so take advantage of them.