Undervalued Areas

[bpc3qh]

Relatively inexperienced in cards (have a lot more experience with comics), and I'm trying to figure out if there are any "market inefficiencies", especially among vintage cards. I'm primarily thinking undervalued players or types of cards. I'm not the kind of collector to chase the 1 of 1 auto/patch cards, for example. I typically only buy the players I like anyway, so if I can save money by buying a less-valued version of one of my guy's RC, for example, the knowledge would be good to have. Appreciate any feedback y'all can provide!

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

Relatively inexperienced in cards (have a lot more experience with comics), and I'm trying to figure out if there are any "market inefficiencies", especially among vintage cards. I'm primarily thinking undervalued players or types of cards. I'm not the kind of collector to chase the 1 of 1 auto/patch cards, for example. I typically only buy the players I like anyway, so if I can save money by buying a less-valued version of one of my guy's RC, for example, the knowledge would be good to have. Appreciate any feedback y'all can provide!

Such a difficult thing to answer... For vintage you typically only have one main rookie card. What year do you consider vintage? I think one type of undervalued card in vintage is the first solo card of a player. For instance 1974 Schmidt, 1973 Carlton Fisk, 1976 Carter and Rice, and 1978 Andre Dawson. These aren't considered rookies, but I actually prefer a few of them over their true rookies.

[Gridiron Bob]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

Relatively inexperienced in cards (have a lot more experience with comics), and I'm trying to figure out if there are any "market inefficiencies", especially among vintage cards. I'm primarily thinking undervalued players or types of cards. I'm not the kind of collector to chase the 1 of 1 auto/patch cards, for example. I typically only buy the players I like anyway, so if I can save money by buying a less-valued version of one of my guy's RC, for example, the knowledge would be good to have. Appreciate any feedback y'all can provide!

What is considered vintage to you?

[mikecala98]

2nd year and Rookie Cups! Not biased because I have almost all of them.

[bpc3qh]

I consider "vintage" to be pre-2000, which I know isn't the conventional definition; for me, it's more about being before the proliferation of different companies; I really prefer the base Topps sets, all the way up to the modern day players (though for the most recent years I like the Topps Heritage cards the best)

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

I consider "vintage" to be pre-2000, which I know isn't the conventional definition; for me, it's more about being before the proliferation of different companies; I really prefer the base Topps sets, all the way up to the modern day players (though for the most recent years I like the Topps Heritage cards the best)

This hurts my soul...

[Gridiron Bob]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

I consider "vintage" to be pre-2000, which I know isn't the conventional definition; for me, it's more about being before the proliferation of different companies; I really prefer the base Topps sets, all the way up to the modern day players (though for the most recent years I like the Topps Heritage cards the best)

Then Topps base RCs is probably what you are looking for.

[Mrpokey]

I believe 2012 Panini Silvers and Greens have a lot of room to grow in the future, considering their popularity in other sports, and low print run

[Supersuper]

I think kershaw is very undervalued, card didn’t go up insanely after he won his first ws champ...

[mfw13]

Given your comparative lack of experience, assume that any market inefficiencies you might think you've found have already been discovered and exploited by more experienced collectors.

[bpc3qh]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

This hurts my soul...

Like I said, I know it's not conventional, and if you a put a gun to my head, I'd really say the "Vintage" era ends closer to 1980 or so; so if there's a difference in how I should be viewing my interests in the 1980-2000 era, I'm all-ears. I get that the "junk era" has a lot more manufacturers and overall population, but since I like the base Topps anyway I'm not sure how much that should really affect what I do?

Let me give an example of what I'm getting at: if I don't think there's much of a visual difference between the PSA 10s and the PSA 7s in terms of what matters to me, will that generally be an area where there are significant financial savings? Or do I need to drop to a lower grade? (Yes I know this is vague, but I'm not even thinking about specific players so it's hard to get more specific).

[SearchPatrol]

Any limited parallel from 1995 I think is under valued. it was the year after the strike and a lot was stuff was limited. take for instance 1995 Upper Deck Series 2 Gold's. you see very few of them for sale. Also, 1995 finest refractors. Look at parallel for set that are not made anymore. Topps Steel Gold refractors and 1997 Pinnacle inside diamond edition.

[Neal]

PSA 9s of pretty much all the PSA 10 rookies

[tconte]

2018 pink soto compared to the hmt55

[ScooterMcRibs]

1981 Perconte/Scioscia/Valenzuela. Gem mint pop zero. Mint pop 302. When Fernando makes the Hall, those PSA 9 cards are going to be 5 figures.

[bpc3qh]

Originally Posted by ScooterMcRibs

1981 Perconte/Scioscia/Valenzuela. Gem mint pop zero. Mint pop 302. When Fernando makes the Hall, those PSA 9 cards are going to be 5 figures.

I like the presence of Mike Scioscia, seeing as he also appeared in the great Simpsons episode, "Homer at the Bat".

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

Let me give an example of what I'm getting at: if I don't think there's much of a visual difference between the PSA 10s and the PSA 7s in terms of what matters to me, will that generally be an area where there are significant financial savings?

Yes, the savings will be huge. And when you go to sell it, the difference in what you will get for your PSA 7 vs a PSA 10 will also be huge. Obviously you’re thinking about future value since you’re looking for market inefficiency, so I would avoid going the cheap route. If you’re really just looking to buy what you like, and just want to stick to your PC guys, you don’t need us. Did you mention who your PC guys are?

[mwheeler27]

Online brands and exclusives like Topps NOW.

NOW won’t be going away, and it is getting more popular. It will be interesting watching how this brand plays out in the future, among others.

[bpc3qh]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Yes, the savings will be huge. And when you go to sell it, the difference in what you will get for your PSA 7 vs a PSA 10 will also be huge. Obviously you’re thinking about future value since you’re looking for market inefficiency, so I would avoid going the cheap route. If you’re really just looking to buy what you like, and just want to stick to your PC guys, you don’t need us. Did you mention who your PC guys are?

I meant "market inefficiencies" more as ways for me to save money, since I'm not looking for resale when I buy. Part of why I'm struggling here is that I'm very much in the "buy what I like" camp--I'm a Nats fan, so I buy Soto, Strasburg, Scherzer, Zimmerman--but I also like older guys like Yaz, Williams, Musial, Mays, Aaron, as well as players with ties to pop culture that I like (e.g., the softball episode of the Simpsons). So there isn't much of a consistent philosophy.

[mrb842]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

Relatively inexperienced in cards (have a lot more experience with comics), and I'm trying to figure out if there are any "market inefficiencies", especially among vintage cards. I'm primarily thinking undervalued players or types of cards. I'm not the kind of collector to chase the 1 of 1 auto/patch cards, for example. I typically only buy the players I like anyway, so if I can save money by buying a less-valued version of one of my guy's RC, for example, the knowledge would be good to have. Appreciate any feedback y'all can provide!

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

70s/80s guys

[Alwayslefty]

Originally Posted by mikecala98

2nd year and Rookie Cups! Not biased because I have almost all of them.

This unless you are Soto or Tatis...

Rookie cups are my favorite cards. But I think it’s only undervalued for so long. As Rc go up there is a migration happening.

Lefty

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

I meant "market inefficiencies" more as ways for me to save money, since I'm not looking for resale when I buy. Part of why I'm struggling here is that I'm very much in the "buy what I like" camp--I'm a Nats fan, so I buy Soto, Strasburg, Scherzer, Zimmerman--but I also like older guys like Yaz, Williams, Musial, Mays, Aaron, as well as players with ties to pop culture that I like (e.g., the softball episode of the Simpsons). So there isn't much of a consistent philosophy.

Auto correct got me. Heh

If you don’t care about resale, don’t even worry about PSA or any graded card. Buy raw. And it looks like you have a great list to start with already. Personally, I only collect modern cards. I love collecting cards of the guys I see on TV and use in fantasy here and now. I’ve thought about adding in some vintage, but I’m concerned about stretching my funds too thin, and having a collection without focus and drive.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

Like I said, I know it's not conventional, and if you a put a gun to my head, I'd really say the "Vintage" era ends closer to 1980 or so; so if there's a difference in how I should be viewing my interests in the 1980-2000 era, I'm all-ears. I get that the "junk era" has a lot more manufacturers and overall population, but since I like the base Topps anyway I'm not sure how much that should really affect what I do?

Let me give an example of what I'm getting at: if I don't think there's much of a visual difference between the PSA 10s and the PSA 7s in terms of what matters to me, will that generally be an area where there are significant financial savings? Or do I need to drop to a lower grade? (Yes I know this is vague, but I'm not even thinking about specific players so it's hard to get more specific).

The important thing is to collect what you like and not worry about what others think. When you start worrying about what others think you should collect, then you are starting to worry about the monetary value and not the fun of collecting and this starts to turn into less of a hobby the entire time.

In most collecting worlds, the accepted definition of vintage is 25 years old, so that would make it pre 1996.

I personally love the cards from the 80s and 90s as that was my childhood, so going back now and collecting the cards that I couldn’t have as a kid is a lot of fun, and because they are readily available and not the newest stars and products they are cheap. I only keep HOF RCs, and from this era, I pick up a lot of them for under $1! That’s crazy to me, that I pick up proven star RCs that cheap, but all the guys who are yet to be proven are $5 each for the same card. Examples are guys like Biggio, Thome, Alomar, Smoltz, Walker, and Martinez, all of which can be gotten for under $1, but then base flagship rookies of Alvarez, Bichette, Lewis, and Arrozarena are $4-5 each.

All that to say I believe the overproduced stuff is a great value that will only go up. More and more collectors just trash these cards (literally throw them away) because they are not worth their time, which means even though they will never be hugely valued, it is easier for these cards to triple in value than it is for the modern rookies to triple.

As for what is undervalued from that era, I would look at the following sets: Leaf, Topps Tiffany, and Fleer. Sets like 1990 Leaf has seen a decent spike in the last year and has HOF rookies like Walker and Thomas in it. Thomas went from $2-3 late last year to $20 now. It even spent a little bit of time at $30-40. Also if you like graded cards, PSA 9 is a Mint card, and sells for a tenth of the price of PSA 10. I think as prices of tens continue to rise and out of a lot of people’s comfort zone mines will start to close that gap.

Hope this helps you a bit.

[DawnBTVS]

Originally Posted by bpc3qh

I meant "market inefficiencies" more as ways for me to save money, since I'm not looking for resale when I buy. Part of why I'm struggling here is that I'm very much in the "buy what I like" camp--I'm a Nats fan, so I buy Soto, Strasburg, Scherzer, Zimmerman--but I also like older guys like Yaz, Williams, Musial, Mays, Aaron, as well as players with ties to pop culture that I like (e.g., the softball episode of the Simpsons). So there isn't much of a consistent philosophy.

One sneaky market inefficiency are Hall of Famers in "modern-day" card sets. I picked up a Bryce Harper Topps Archive Orange Foil /75 for $10 and also picked up a /25 Topps Archive Red Wade Boggs raw for like $4. As a Red Sox homer and big Boggs fan, I was all over that You'll often see modern-day players, especially RCs, much higher priced than legends and proven stars.

TCDB.com is a great tool if you also like the aesthetics of cards and are looking for different sets to explore. 2nd-year cards can be very underrated because they aren't "Rookie" cards but: They usually feature the player's 1st year of MLB stats on the back or 1st full year of MLB stats (something I appreciate) and sometimes the card better captures the player. I'll take Ken Griffey Jr's 1990 Upper Deck Card with him kneeling & smiling all day, every day over his far more valued 1989 Upper Deck Card personally.

If you want to go the graded route and don't really care about "Gem Mint" status, modern-day PSA 8s/8.5s and BGS 8.5s are solid (Near-Mint) and far cheaper than 9s or 10s. Depending on the subgrades of a BGS, you can even get 9 Centering or 9 Corners from an 8.5 or even 8 depending on what the other subgrades are. If you're going 'Vintage' and anything pre-1980, you can get away with some great looking PSA/SGC 3s-5s if you focus on centering.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by dashcol

The important thing is to collect what you like and not worry about what others think. When you start worrying about what others think you should collect, then you are starting to worry about the monetary value and not the fun of collecting and this starts to turn into less of a hobby the entire time.

If I could add a common-sense caveat: know and understand the value of what you’re looking to acquire and don’t overpay or get taken advantage of.