Patrick Mahomes Prices

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

So for a counterpoint.

The bolded is interesting because Mahomes hasn’t outpaced Brady since he’s been in the league. Brady has been to 3 SBs, with 2 victories and 1 MVP. So you can compare early career, but he’s also not keeping pace with Brady right now.

And the second part of the post just assumes bias that Mahomes is even in the GOAT status conversation now, he simply isn’t. That would be absurd.

There are two QBs in that conversation and an incredible amount of HOF QBs between those two that aren’t in the conversation. Right now Mahomes isn’t in the conversation.

If we're basing it on SB wins in the first 4 seasons, then sure. Brady had 2 and Mahomes has 1. Both had 2 SB appearances in their first 4 seasons in the league.

All other playoff counting stats he's neck and neck with Brady, and Brady is double the next guy currently in those statistical categories.

Instead of thinking of Mahomes ceiling (which is Brady, even though it's a tough road to that point) think of his floor. His floor is already in All-Time Great status. Just needs a few things to break his way to pass some of those guys (Rodgers, Manning, Brees).

From a card aspect, I'd still say Mahomes has a safe floor.

What happens when guys like me (basketball guys) decide to venture out into the football arena because the prices on NBA players reaches millionaire stature, of which I can't compete? We're going to be buying guys like Mahomes.

[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

I can’t call a year 3 starter an established player.



For established it’s either retired players or Lebron/Brady.



Mahomes prices are indicative that he will continue to play at a high level for a long time with multiple more SB wins. That isn’t established to me.

You kind of become established in the NFL after an MVP and super bowl championship when you are a QB. Not saying it’s right, but it’s just how it is in the NFL. Maybe it’s different in the NBA




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[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by Spartyon

You kind of become established in the NFL after an MVP and super bowl championship when you are a QB. Not saying it’s right, but it’s just how it is in the NFL. Maybe it’s different in the NBA




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So his cards and Brady/Lebron can be considered in the same risk category?

You asked a question, I answered it. I can’t help you understand it.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

If we're basing it on SB wins in the first 4 seasons, then sure. Brady had 2 and Mahomes has 1. Both had 2 SB appearances in their first 4 seasons in the league.

All other playoff counting stats he's neck and neck with Brady, and Brady is double the next guy currently in those statistical categories.

Instead of thinking of Mahomes ceiling (which is Brady, even though it's a tough road to that point) think of his floor. His floor is already in All-Time Great status. Just needs a few things to break his way to pass some of those guys (Rodgers, Manning, Brees).

From a card aspect, I'd still say Mahomes has a safe floor.

What happens when guys like me (basketball guys) decide to venture out into the football arena because the prices on NBA players reaches millionaire stature, of which I can't compete? We're going to be buying guys like Mahomes.

I’d be comfortable saying his floor is Brees/Rodgers/Manning if that is where his card prices were.

If that is his floor, than his hobby price is already well above that and for me that makes him a high risk player.

I can’t put his ceiling as Brady. I think it’s just absurd to do that after so few seasons. But I’m a very conservative thinker and to me that is very high risk thinking.

So we agree that his floor from a player standpoint is Brees/manning/Rodgers. However I think his hobby floor has already surpassed that which creates an uncomfortable discrepancy for me. We disagree how we that his ceiling is Brady. Heck we haven’t even seen Brady’s ceiling yet. Eh, I feel dirty just saying that. *Throws up in mouth*

[kcroyalsfan8515]

As a lifelong Chiefs fan... Ill always collect Pat. He is fun to watch and I still believe he is the best QB I've ever seen. Brady almost certainly will never be matched in rings and will be greatest winner sport has ever seen. Football is a team game.... When TB12 took an undefeated NE team into the SB and he got pressured they lost. Game plan was bad, coaches didn't adjust, and play makers didn't help their QB out. Tampa had a great game plan and executed it to perfection and didn't make mistakes. They deserved to win. I still think Brady is the luckiest athlete I've ever seen. Not sour grapes, just what I think. I have some Brady cards too. Pat is my dude. Brady threw 3 INT's last week and still won. Who would have thought that.... Im rambling but honestly I still wouldn't change our (Chiefs) situation with anyone in the league.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

I’d be comfortable saying his floor is Brees/Rodgers/Manning if that is where his card prices were.

If that is his floor, than his hobby price is already well above that and for me that makes him a high risk player.

I can’t put his ceiling as Brady. I think it’s just absurd to do that after so few seasons. But I’m a very conservative thinker and to me that is very high risk thinking.

So we agree that his floor from a player standpoint is Brees/manning/Rodgers. However I think his hobby floor has already surpassed that which creates an uncomfortable discrepancy for me. We disagree how we that his ceiling is Brady. Heck we haven’t even seen Brady’s ceiling yet. Eh, I feel dirty just saying that. *Throws up in mouth*

Very true.

I also think it's important to note that card prices are not solely tied to statistical performance/career accolades.

The biggest jumps in card prices had to do with the tsunami of people/funds entering the hobby. If the hobby doubles in size between now and 2030, the prices we see now will be "cheap" without Brady-esque accolades. Conversely, if the hobby gets a haircut and half the participants/money leave, then all the SBs in the world won't help Mahome's card prices from where they are at right now.

Mahomes still has to perform, mind you. He just doesn't have to meet a Brady level to see an increase in card prices, and he also could surpass Brady and still see his card prices dip.

The prices are more tied to the hobby as a whole than they are player achievement. I'd put player achievement 2nd on the list.

[ctizzle]

Originally Posted by kcroyalsfan8515

As a lifelong Chiefs fan... Ill always collect Pat. He is fun to watch and I still believe he is the best QB I've ever seen. Brady almost certainly will never be matched in rings and will be greatest winner sport has ever seen. Football is a team game.... When TB12 took an undefeated NE team into the SB and he got pressured they lost. Game plan was bad, coaches didn't adjust, and play makers didn't help their QB out. Tampa had a great game plan and executed it to perfection and didn't make mistakes. They deserved to win. I still think Brady is the luckiest athlete I've ever seen. Not sour grapes, just what I think. I have some Brady cards too. Pat is my dude. Brady threw 3 INT's last week and still won. Who would have thought that.... Im rambling but honestly I still wouldn't change our (Chiefs) situation with anyone in the league.

^this x1000


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[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

So his cards and Brady/Lebron can be considered in the same risk category?

You asked a question, I answered it. I can’t help you understand it.

Brady and Lebron cards are safe and can only go up. Patrick cannot be considered in the same category as Tom or Lebron.

[imbluestreak23]

I bought some Patty’s today, will probably buy some more tomorrow

[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

So his cards and Brady/Lebron can be considered in the same risk category?



You asked a question, I answered it. I can’t help you understand it.

I didn’t ask the question. First of all. No, he isn’t in that category. But his cards are a long way away from those selling prices the last time I checked.

From a risk standpoint, of course he is more risky. But the reward is potentially higher as well if he reaches that status in the next 15 years.

He is right where he belongs price-wise imo, highest selling QB not named Brady. Not as risky a prop as a guy like Luka or Zion who haven’t won anything and are selling for crazy amounts. Understand that there are more fans for basketball globally, doesn’t change the risk profile though.


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[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Very true.

I also think it's important to note that card prices are not solely tied to statistical performance/career accolades.

The biggest jumps in card prices had to do with the tsunami of people/funds entering the hobby. If the hobby doubles in size between now and 2030, the prices we see now will be "cheap" without Brady-esque accolades. Conversely, if the hobby gets a haircut and half the participants/money leave, then all the SBs in the world won't help Mahome's card prices from where they are at right now.

Mahomes still has to perform, mind you. He just doesn't have to meet a Brady level to see an increase in card prices, and he also could surpass Brady and still see his card prices dip.

The prices are more tied to the hobby as a whole than they are player achievement. I'd put player achievement 2nd on the list.

I absolutely agree with all that.

And to me that is also why I feel the risk is too high. There is more unknown about the “hobby’s” future on top of Mahomes.

If it all breaks the right way, his cards will be a bargain now. If any of those variables, or all break the wrong way, it could be a bloodbath.

[StormsBreaks]

Originally Posted by majestik101

Sold for $19,100.

He's a future 6x Super Bowl winner and first ballot Hall of Famer. Worth every penny.

kind of ironic, bucs fan said this,

bucs stopped him from his 2nd.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

I don't have a position in patty anymore but let me just say this.

mahomes made some plays last night that were simply incredible. he mad some throws that were on the money except they just were not caught!

he's this generations superstar qb. there's no other young qb on his level.

[MurphyTheDog]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I don't have a position in patty anymore but let me just say this.

mahomes made some plays last night that were simply incredible. he mad some throws that were on the money except they just were not caught!

he's this generations superstar qb. there's no other young qb on his level.

He also made a bunch of throws that he shouldn't have. Sounds like Brett Favre.

[MikawlBBC]

Well, odds for next SB are out:
Chiefs +550
Packers and Bucs: +900

[kcroyalsfan8515]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Brady and Lebron cards are safe and can only go up. Patrick cannot be considered in the same category as Tom or Lebron.

Not yet.... Hopefully long career ahead of him..

[johnashleyjacob]

Originally Posted by kcroyalsfan8515

Not yet.... Hopefully long career ahead of him..

Lol people forgetting that lebron and Brady have lost in the finals.... and guess what these same people who are talking like this also doubted Lebron and Brady, a few years back. Oh well, great season and looking forward to next year already.


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[ALBASKETBALL]

Originally Posted by MurphyTheDog

He also made a bunch of throws that he shouldn't have. Sounds like Brett Favre.

Riveting analysis. Please share more.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by MikawlBBC

Well, odds for next SB are out:
Chiefs +550
Packers and Bucs: +900

I threw some cash at the Rams. Stafford could put them over the top.

[johnashleyjacob]

Originally Posted by MikawlBBC

Well, odds for next SB are out:
Chiefs +550
Packers and Bucs: +900

Looks like Vegas feel the same way Chiefs Fans do!


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[recoil2020]

The purchase of a Mahomes NT RPA /5 for almost $900K via Goldin Auctions has to be feeling like a not-so-great purchase at the moment. That's the risk with sports cards though I guess. I have a large Mahomes collection and not letting anything go as of right now. However, I do think that people who purchased more recently at exorbitant prices are going to have lots of regret, particularly short term and intermediate term. Like I said earlier and others have reiterated, the GOAT label which has been floated many times to drive up interest and prices, that ship has essentially sailed.

[49erRCCollector]

The problem isn’t Mahomes. He’s amazing. Anyone with eyeballs knows this.

The problem is the card market - with Mahomes as the poster child, rubs people the wrong way. It’s like 4-5 Super Bowls are built in to current prices. What if he never goes back? That’s a lot of dough for a guy who’s only won one. Disproportionate, in my opinion, even for speculation prices.

[marlinsmaniac20]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

The problem isn’t Mahomes. He’s amazing. Anyone with eyeballs knows this.

The problem is the card market - with Mahomes as the poster child, rubs people the wrong way. It’s like 4-5 Super Bowls are built in to current prices. What if he never goes back? That’s a lot of dough for a guy who’s only won one. Disproportionate, in my opinion, even for speculation prices.

The pop count on silver PSA 10s currently sits at 851. It's probably safe to say that that card remains under 1k pop till the end of time. For a qb who's been to 2 SB, 1SB Championship, 1MVP, 1SBMVP, by age 25 that's as good as it gets.

When it comes to benchmarking Mahomes against other young QBs, there is no one else even remotely close to the same tier.

Players have bad games, teams have bad games, life goes on. Brady will forever hold the title of having the most epic collapse of all time gunning for his undefeated season.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

The problem isn’t Mahomes. He’s amazing. Anyone with eyeballs knows this.

The problem is the card market - with Mahomes as the poster child, rubs people the wrong way. It’s like 4-5 Super Bowls are built in to current prices. What if he never goes back? That’s a lot of dough for a guy who’s only won one. Disproportionate, in my opinion, even for speculation prices.

Absolutely spot-on.

Is Mahomes already great? Possibly.

But an All-Time Great? Well his cards are certainly priced that way already, as if he's a future 6 time Super-Bowl winner and first-ballot HOF'er.

Let's pump the brakes a little.

[jjrpilot]

As a Chiefs fan, I'll continue to collect Mahomes as well.

Here's my take on the game. To everyone that saying the Buccs just gave the NFL the recipe how to beat Mahomes...doesn't make a lot of sense.

1. Multiple starting guards and tackles have been out all year.
2. One of the starting guards Tardiff is a Dr who opted out this year to care for Covid patients.
3. Mahomes' turf toe
4. Reliable receivers had passes literally hit their faces.
5. I don't think Andy Reid was all there last night due to his son almost killing a family. (WE ALL agree that the little's girls life is more important rather than a SB.)


Now to everyone who thinks I'm making excuses last night I'm not. The Buccs saw the O-Line weakness and would be IDIOTS NOT to take advantage of that. They SHOULD and DID. Brady is amazing and did what he was asked to do.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are still favored to win their division and possibly conference.

This is only Mahomes' 3rd year starting...3rd year and his 2nd trip to the SB. Even Brady loses in SBs.

Both QBs can be considered great. It's not an either or.

Last night I was conflicted bc I'm a Chiefs fan but I'm also a Wolverine fan lol. Obviously though I wanted Mahomes to win. I don't think we've seen the last of Mahomes.

Mahomes is THE BEST QB Kansas City has ever had. Period. I don't need him to beat Brady's record. I honestly never thought I'd see KC win ONE SB in my lifetime.

Much love ya'll!