Retail Hoarders and Extortion

[joe73]

Originally Posted by jkampis

Define “this.”

Do you mean the retail scalping, or do you mean the whole hobby will come crumbling down like a house of, um, cards? I don’t see the later happening because there seems to be a lot of dads getting back into the hobby with their sons. I can definitely see the former happening.

A crash is coming, and it's going to be epic.

Sports cards didn't suddenly get 300% more popular in the past 18 months. The Fed has been printing money like crazy and people have been stuck at home, either with nothing to spend money on or desperate for ways to make money from home. It's only a matter of time before the flippers and investors move on to the next thing.

[thenwhatjk]

How great is that?

[k13]

Originally Posted by joe73

A crash is coming, and it's going to be epic.

Sports cards didn't suddenly get 300% more popular in the past 18 months. The Fed has been printing money like crazy and people have been stuck at home, either with nothing to spend money on or desperate for ways to make money from home. It's only a matter of time before the flippers and investors move on to the next thing.

Cards sell on hype/rookies.

Zion started it not Covid. Hobby prices went up so people had to chase retail.
No one was fighting for prizm basketball till hobby got out of hand.

Hype will always sell.

[CoolG]

Originally Posted by joe73

A crash is coming, and it's going to be epic.

Sports cards didn't suddenly get 300% more popular in the past 18 months. The Fed has been printing money like crazy and people have been stuck at home, either with nothing to spend money on or desperate for ways to make money from home. It's only a matter of time before the flippers and investors move on to the next thing.

It’s a collectible cycle seen it all after 35 years in this bizz. The market is STRONG and will be for another 4-5 years. The unopened market had the same hype with 89 UD and then 90 LEAF the marked was strong from 1989-99 a 10 year run. There were investors with pallets of cases and nothing has changed

[thewild3]

You know who the new comers to the game of hoarding retail is when all they have is Hoops Premium, Prizm Football and Retail Contenders Football.

[Ebucs1604]

It bugs me to no end honestly. I have one card shop about forty minutes from the house. Which is apperntly the only place you can now go to get cards, in between the drive and the mark ups it doesnt leave me with a lot of money to get cards I miss the old days

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by k13

Cards sell on hype/rookies.

Zion started it not Covid. Hobby prices went up so people had to chase retail.
No one was fighting for prizm basketball till hobby got out of hand.

Hype will always sell.

What about cards of Brady, Kobe, Trout, MJ, LeBron?

What sells that? Not hype. People wanting to have best card of legends?

[joe73]

Originally Posted by CoolG

It’s a collectible cycle seen it all after 35 years in this bizz. The market is STRONG and will be for another 4-5 years. ...

I'll be very surprised if the boom lasts much into 2022. These prices simply aren't sustainable, MLB is cruising toward a work stoppage, and the overall U.S. economy is, pardon the pun, a house of cards.

[bwalter1]

Originally Posted by joe73

I'll be very surprised if the boom lasts much into 2022. These prices simply aren't sustainable, MLB is cruising toward a work stoppage, and the overall U.S. economy is, pardon the pun, a house of cards.

There is not going to be any type of bubble burst or drastic price drop for awhile. Prices were low because of mainly collectors and some "investors". Now the investors are to big for that to happen. You mention the U.S. economy but that is helping cards and will in the future, but for a different reason. The sports card market is not regulated like the stock market for investments. With some of what is expected with the new president and the stock market that is only going to fuel card prices. Eventually are going to see investment groups purchasing cards (already are to an extent) and placing those into funds for investment.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by joe73

I'll be very surprised if the boom lasts much into 2022. These prices simply aren't sustainable, MLB is cruising toward a work stoppage, and the overall U.S. economy is, pardon the pun, a house of cards.

I used to agree with this, but I think card prices will remain high for a number of reasons.

1. Youtube - People are making money having youtube channels about cards. Some channels are getting large audiences. This is the new TV and has ad revenue behind it.
2. Age demographics - The boom now is being supported by adults, many of them are quite wealthy. The boom in the 1990's was supported partially by kids opening junk wax. This is much different.
3. Grading - It isn't easy to get out of card collecting or flipping right now. Many "investors" have thousands of cards at PSA/SGC/BGS right now and won't get them back until the end of 2021. Grading companies with slow return times keeps people in the hobby.

[roush16racing]

Wait until the flippers get their next $1,400 from Uncle Biden.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by bwalter1

There is not going to be any type of bubble burst or drastic price drop for awhile. Prices were low because of mainly collectors and some "investors". Now the investors are to big for that to happen. You mention the U.S. economy but that is helping cards and will in the future, but for a different reason. The sports card market is not regulated like the stock market for investments. With some of what is expected with the new president and the stock market that is only going to fuel card prices. Eventually are going to see investment groups purchasing cards (already are to an extent) and placing those into funds for investment.

People were saying the same about real estate 15 years ago.

Prices will come down as soon as people can start going on vacation again. There's no way the current bull market is going to last another 4-5 years.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by roush16racing

Wait until the flippers get their next $1,400 from Uncle Biden.

Right. It's like the people who don't see the connection between the Fed printing money like crazy and the price of Bitcoin suddenly shooting up.

The government has been mailing out money while telling people they can't be evicted if they don't pay rent.

Sports card prices went through the roof back in the spring/summer at a time when over 40 million people were unemployed. Craziest thing I've ever seen.

[phil]

Distributors aren't going to stop hoarding and manipulating the market on Hobby any time soon, and obviously that affects demand and price level for retail.

[OneBuck]

I’ve had a few friends who’ve never had any interest in cards message me about them recently. They don’t give 2 shots about cards, but they both love gambling. Someone has an in with either the rep or a Walmart employees and buys all the stock every week. Calls up my friend twice a week and sells him a ton of product at a markup. I only found out because my other buddy mentioned it to me in passing. They have no idea what they’re buying, they just cards are hot right now & they haven’t been spending as much gambling or going out lately with everything #@#@#@#@ down. He was ready to drop $600 on Contenders blasters to rip until I talked him out of it. People are going to get tired of cards. They take up a lot of room & you rarely come out ahead opening, even at retail. The newness will wear off.


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[Eric1285]

Originally Posted by OneBuck

I’ve had a few friends who’ve never had any interest in cards message me about them recently. They don’t give 2 shots about cards, but they both love gambling. Someone has an in with either the rep or a Walmart employees and buys all the stock every week. Calls up my friend twice a week and sells him a ton of product at a markup. I only found out because my other buddy mentioned it to me in passing. They have no idea what they’re buying, they just cards are hot right now & they haven’t been spending as much gambling or going out lately with everything #@#@#@#@ down. He was ready to drop $600 on Contenders blasters to rip until I talked him out of it. People are going to get tired of cards. They take up a lot of room & you rarely come out ahead opening, even at retail. The newness will wear off.


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I'm not going to lie, I'm one of the newly returned collectors and a huge part of it has been replacing quarterly trips to Vegas for me. At least that's how I've justified it...it's all just money I spend on things I enjoy.

I'll go back to Vegas once I'm vaccinated, but probably not 4 times a year anymore. Some money will still be reserved for other hobbies, as I'm probably back for the long haul. I never lost interest in baseball, but baseball card collecting became a luxury that I gave up when I was a kid. Now that I've rediscovered it, I think I'll keep at it.

[jhssketchcards]

There are plenty of posts in this forum of guys showing off their stashed, unopened wax. I highly doubt these “collections” were attained one pack/box at a time. More than likely it was a buggy full at a time. Funny though I don’t see many complaining about that. Maybe it’s because they aren’t flipping.
They are “investing”. 2018 Update, 2019-20 Prizm Basketball... hoarded, stashed away to be sold much later at guess what - a higher price. So maybe the fact that cards are being stashed therefore there aren’t many packs/boxes and that’s driving demand?
If bubble wrap doubles or triples in price tomorrow and you knew you could buy and sell to people wanting it, especially for a nice profit, why wouldn’t you? It’s called capitalism in a free market, supply and demand.
For the record I’ve been buying and selling since 2012 and I can’t remember seeing a kid buy sports cards but maybe three times in that span.
In fact I have four boys in school and I’ve asked them if any of the kids they know in their respective grades collect trading cards and they all say kids that do collect are into Pokémon, Magic The Gathering or Yu-Gi-Oh. I’m sure there are kids who collect, I’ve just rarely seen them.


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[joe73]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

There are plenty of posts in this forum of guys showing off their stashed, unopened wax. I highly doubt these “collections” were attained one pack/box at a time. More than likely it was a buggy full at a time. Funny though I don’t see many complaining about that. Maybe it’s because they aren’t flipping.
They are “investing”. 2018 Update, 2019-20 Prizm Basketball... hoarded, stashed away to be sold much later at guess what - a higher price. So maybe the fact that cards are being stashed therefore there aren’t many packs/boxes and that’s driving demand?

No doubt. When I collected in the 1980s, it was almost unheard of to keep unopened wax. Now the print runs are a fraction of what they were in the 1980s, and keeping unopened wax seems to be very popular.

For the record I’ve been buying and selling since 2012 and I can’t remember seeing a kid buy sports cards but maybe three times in that span.

None of this cardboard will be worth anything in a decade or two if that doesn't change and change quickly.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by joe73

No doubt. When I collected in the 1980s, it was almost unheard of to keep unopened wax. Now the print runs are a fraction of what they were in the 1980s, and keeping unopened wax seems to be very popular.



None of this cardboard will be worth anything in a decade or two if that doesn't change and change quickly.

You’re right. It only has assigned value. When the dollar tanks it will be interesting. Can’t buy groceries with cardboard.


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[Gradek]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

You’re right. It only has assigned value. When the dollar tanks it will be interesting. Can’t buy groceries with cardboard.


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Trump’s foray into modern monetary theory may be the legacy that no one is talking about yet.

[noaskiecards]

Originally Posted by Gradek

Trump’s foray into modern monetary theory may be the legacy that no one is talking about yet.

Us dollar up 0.8 percent on the month!
Go greenbacks!
Stonks

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[mrb842]

a lot of the stores w/good reputations have basically said they feel bad about kids access to the hobby, but it's where the business is for them.

[kevbojones]

Sports cards are "the next thing" and there are millions of dollars pouring into the market right now.

All you can do is HODL, try to find some value and do your research.

This is not a kids game anymore. It's the big leagues.

Many of us will be left behind, but if you find your niche, you can stick with it.

Just don't be left holding the bag

Originally Posted by joe73

A crash is coming, and it's going to be epic.

Sports cards didn't suddenly get 300% more popular in the past 18 months. The Fed has been printing money like crazy and people have been stuck at home, either with nothing to spend money on or desperate for ways to make money from home. It's only a matter of time before the flippers and investors move on to the next thing.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by kevbojones

Sports cards are "the next thing" and there are millions of dollars pouring into the market right now.

"The next thing"? I'd hate to see where prices are going if we're not even close to the peak yet.

At least people could live in those condos they bought in 2007 ...

[k13]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

What about cards of Brady, Kobe, Trout, MJ, LeBron?

What sells that? Not hype. People wanting to have best card of legends?

I'm talking about future products and bringing people into the hobby. The chase.

You can't "chase" those rookies of the past.
Realistically atleast.