Official Tom Brady RC Price Tracker

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Total Graded Pop 818 (BGS 654, PSA 164). Assuming the pop report is overestimated 20-25% due to crossovers, crack & resubmissions. So the corrected graded pop is ~650, which makes it rarer than a Mantle 1952 Topps whose PSA pop alone is 1402. Just another way to look at it. Brady contenders auto is one of the safest (best blue chip) out there imo. Hence I went ahead and bought a second Brady Contenders auto.

Goldin by icollector23, on Flickr

i had always thought about buying a 2nd one as well, but i never did. i should have, but i had my eyes on the SP Authentic instead. there was just something about the SPA that always caught my eyes.

[Bailey911911]

I have the Tom Brady beer 😀

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by oplum29

i had always thought about buying a 2nd one as well, but i never did. i should have, but i had my eyes on the SP Authentic instead. there was just something about the SPA that always caught my eyes.

I like SPA/1250 too and have thought about adding it but Brady Contenders BGS 8.5/10 for 22K seemed more attractive than spending ~12K on a SPA BGS 9. I see more upside in Brady contenders auto. The total graded pop of Brady contenders auto (Total 812, actual ~650 after factoring in crossovers, crack & resubmissions) is lower than the total print run of SPA. The total graded pop of SPA is 1536 (BGS 974, PSA 562), which is 20-25% overestimated due to crossovers and crack &resubmissions.

EDIT: Look at Jordan 1986 Fleer pop for example. Total graded BGS pop is 11516 (BGS 9.5 pop is 526), Total graded PSA pop is 18184 (PSA 10 pop is 317). Total graded pop is almost 30K of which 843 are gem mints (BGS 9.5 and PSA 10's) and compare that to total graded pop of only 812 for Brady Contenders Auto. 1986 Fleer PSA 10 are selling for almost 200K now and it took almost 34 years to get to these levels. I understand football does not have as many collectors worldwide similar to basketball but with more collectors coming in and Brady holding the current GOAT title, I see big upside in Brady contenders in the next 10 to 20 years. That was my thought processes behind grabbing a second one.

[daveyc1]

I had always heard there were more contenders produced than SPA. Of course we will never know for sure. I wonder if the discrepancy in pop numbers is due to the difficulty of getting contenders into holders and people just keeping them raw?

[Brian48]

Personally, I think the SPA pop is extremely inflated because so many people have played the re-sub/crossover game for the last two decades. More so than any other Brady card. Both BGS and PSA made it easy as they never traced the #/1250.

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Brady Contenders Auto-Total Graded Pop 818 (BGS 654, PSA 164). Assuming the pop report is overestimated 20-25% due to crossovers, crack & resubmissions, the corrected graded pop is ~650, which makes it rarer than a Mantle 1952 Topps whose PSA pop alone is 1402. Just another way to look at it. Brady contenders auto is one of the safest (best blue chip) investment out there imo. Hence I went ahead and bought a second one.

Goldin by icollector23, on Flickr

Nice additions!!

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I had always heard there were more contenders produced than SPA. Of course we will never know for sure. I wonder if the discrepancy in pop numbers is due to the difficulty of getting contenders into holders and people just keeping them raw?

Wouldn't be surprised if there are 2-3k Brady Contenders. You're right a ton of them can't be assigned a number grade so the graded population isn't as close to the actual number of cards as some other issues. On one hand it's not a SP like Peyton (200) or Mahomes (212), on the other it's Tom F'n Brady and the PR doesn't matter very much, although if he was an SP I think it would be even more astronomical.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I had always heard there were more contenders produced than SPA. Of course we will never know for sure. I wonder if the discrepancy in pop numbers is due to the difficulty of getting contenders into holders and people just keeping them raw?

Yes, its very similar to Trout 2011 Target Red Update. Graded pop is low because many are not in gradable condition.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

Nice additions!!

Thanks

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Yes, its very similar to Trout 2011 Target Red Update. Graded pop is low because many are not in gradable condition.

That’s the thing, the gem pop hasn’t changed more than a card or so in the last five years. They are usually 8.5 out of the pack if you’re lucky. Brady!

[HOFAutoRookies]

Out of curiosity, how have his cards been doing since he went to Tampa?

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by HOFAutoRookies

Out of curiosity, how have his cards been doing since he went to Tampa?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but stuff of his is down slightly since the beginning of the season.

Hard to compare to the offseason though when everything was record high, his Bowman Chrome PSA 9 was going for nearly $3,000 if I remember correct, and now it's down to $2,000. But, it was around $2400 around the start of the season.

[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by Zauron

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but stuff of his is down slightly since the beginning of the season.

Hard to compare to the offseason though when everything was record high, his Bowman Chrome PSA 9 was going for nearly $3,000 if I remember correct, and now it's down to $2,000. But, it was around $2400 around the start of the season.

Entire market softened,Brady rare stuff sets records every time it comes to auction.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

Entire market softened,Brady rare stuff sets records every time it comes to auction.

Forget about the rare stuff. Base RC's of Mahomes, Luka, Lebron, Jordan have gone up crazy (5-10X) over the past one year! The entire market has never been this strong!

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Forget about the rare stuff. Base RC's of Mahomes, Luka, Lebron, Jordan have gone up crazy (5-10X) over the past one year! The entire market has never been this strong!

True but they are down in many cases since the season started on a lot, including some Mahomes

[rj.cataldo]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

True but they are down in many cases since the season started on a lot, including some Mahomes

This is definitely true. I was one of the smart guys that bought at the peak!


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[bootma]

Originally Posted by Zauron

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but stuff of his is down slightly since the beginning of the season.

Hard to compare to the offseason though when everything was record high, his Bowman Chrome PSA 9 was going for nearly $3,000 if I remember correct, and now it's down to $2,000. But, it was around $2400 around the start of the season.

You are correct. I saw several BC 9s that sold for over 3k and the 10s were 10k mid summer.

[mainelobster]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Forget about the rare stuff. Base RC's of Mahomes, Luka, Lebron, Jordan have gone up crazy (5-10X) over the past one year! The entire market has never been this strong!

Even the Mahomes stuff dropped considerably from where it was. Just look at his Prizm sales. They were at some deep lows this year just a month ago.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by mainelobster

Even the Mahomes stuff dropped considerably from where it was. Just look at his Prizm sales. They were at some deep lows this year just a month ago.

Overall trend in prices are up since I purchased his cards more than a year ago. They have been up almost 3-5X since March/April with minor corrections. I don't look at daily or weekly trends since I am not a day trader. That approach has served me well and I will stick to it.

[mainelobster]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Overall trend in prices are up since I purchased his cards more than a year ago. They have been up almost 3-5X since March/April with minor corrections. I don't look at daily or weekly trends since I am not a day trader. That approach has served me well and I will stick to it.

Yes, so are literally everyone's from a year ago. You missed the point. The whole market hit a peak right before the season. Prices across the board have dropped since they were extremely inflated.

I've been collecting Brady rookies for 15 years so I'm the opposite of a day trader with cards. Just pointing out reality.

[jasonm2121]

Brady still throwing 48 yard bombs

[daveyc1]

that was a great pass to Miller.

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

that was a great pass to Miller.

I enjoyed it as well

[Kingofkings1281]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

I enjoyed it as well

But I heard he can’t throw more than ten yards anymore. Have I been misinformed?

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I like SPA/1250 too and have thought about adding it but Brady Contenders BGS 8.5/10 for 22K seemed more attractive than spending ~12K on a SPA BGS 9. I see more upside in Brady contenders auto. The total graded pop of Brady contenders auto (Total 812, actual ~650 after factoring in crossovers, crack & resubmissions) is lower than the total print run of SPA. The total graded pop of SPA is 1536 (BGS 974, PSA 562), which is 20-25% overestimated due to crossovers and crack &resubmissions.

EDIT: Look at Jordan 1986 Fleer pop for example. Total graded BGS pop is 11516 (BGS 9.5 pop is 526), Total graded PSA pop is 18184 (PSA 10 pop is 317). Total graded pop is almost 30K of which 843 are gem mints (BGS 9.5 and PSA 10's) and compare that to total graded pop of only 812 for Brady Contenders Auto. 1986 Fleer PSA 10 are selling for almost 200K now and it took almost 34 years to get to these levels. I understand football does not have as many collectors worldwide similar to basketball but with more collectors coming in and Brady holding the current GOAT title, I see big upside in Brady contenders in the next 10 to 20 years. That was my thought processes behind grabbing a second one.

i still remember some years ago, the LCS i used to visit, had one box of 2000 SP Authentic for $300...and i've never spent that much on a box.

then i decided to go for it, and make the buy but keep the box closed, and when i went to buy it...it sold.

ahhhh, that still eats at me to this day.

but that Brady SPA card was at another level, i've always loved that card, and always coveted it more than the Contenders card.