2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP

[metsandweezer]

Originally Posted by GOWIFB

Just woke up and trying to get caught up, but is this for the general election? I still don't see how Biden has a path here. PA is essentially lost. What is the scenario for him to win here?

Biden is somehow leading in Wisconsin. Nevada is going to be extremely close.

[preakness]

Originally Posted by EBCollectibles

Spoken like a true Democrat.

You don't think ATL uncounted votes will be Biden?

[mnvikingstwins]

Originally Posted by GOWIFB

Just woke up and trying to get caught up, but is this for the general election? I still don't see how Biden has a path here. PA is essentially lost. What is the scenario for him to win here?

If he gets Nev and wisc he's 16 away

[GOWIFB]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

If he gets Nev and wisc he's 16 away

Michigan and Georgia both have 16 right?

[GOWIFB]

I am afraid this is going to get ugly no matter who wins. Looks like there could be multiple states that are decided by just hundreds or thousands of votes. May end up seeing automatic recounts.

[metsandweezer]

It’s all coming down to Clark and Washoe County for Nevada. Biden up less than 8,000 votes

[fadster]

Biden is slight favourite on Betfair exchange roughly 54/46

They have
Georgia R 58/42 D (16 votes)
Pennsylvania R 69/31 D (20 votes)
Michigan R 42/58 D (16 votes)

If Biden takes Wisconsin and Nevada then he needs one of those to get over the line.

[metsandweezer]

From Twitter:

Here’s what is left to count:

-Mail ballots received on Election Day
-Mail ballots that will be received over the next week
-Provisional ballots

Ballots outstanding is difficult to estimate in Nevada because every voter was sent a mail ballot. Obviously, not all will vote.

[mnvikingstwins]

Biden -165 so back to where the night started but with senate republican

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by GOWIFB

Michigan and Georgia both have 16 right?

Yes

Essentially what it's coming down to is Biden needs to hold onto Nevada and Wisconsin which are both close.

If he can hold onto both of those, Trump can win NC and Pennsylvania and it doesn't matter.

All that matters then is Michigan and Georgia.... Trump needs both to win, Biden needs one of the two to win.

And the gap in both of those states has been getting closer throughout the night.

Bottom line, this is going to be VERY close and might not get decided for a few days as it's so close that literally ever ballot might need to be counted before any projections can be made.

[GOWIFB]

Just saw the map of Georgia. Really looking like he has a real possibility. Much better shot than in PA. He is 100K behind but still 20% of the vote is out in a couple strong democratic counties. That race could get within thousands of votes as well. This is nuts how many states are so close.

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by GOWIFB

Just saw the map of Georgia. Really looking like he has a real possibility. Much better shot than in PA. He is 100K behind but still 20% of the vote is out in a couple strong democratic counties. That race could get within thousands of votes as well. This is nuts how many states are so close.

I'm over Pennsylvania, yea, a win there for Biden would allow him to lose both Michigan and Georgia and still win, but both Michigan and Georgia seem like the more likely chance in the end. I'd rank it Michigan, Georgia, then Pennsylvania in terms of Biden's chances, he could still win all 3 or none of them, it's going to come down to the wire and very possibly whether votes that arrive over the next 3 days in Pennsylvania (but post marked before Tuesday) are counted or not.

[mnvikingstwins]

Republican senate and 6-3 court isn't that bad for next 2 years even if biden wins (which he should now)

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

Republican senate and 6-3 court isn't that bad for next 2 years even if biden wins (which he should now)

Honestly, I'd be fine with that at this point, we just need adults back in the White House, and I don't think I'd say he "should" quite yet. I'd put it at 65/35 in favor of Trump at the moment. If you're in the lead at this point, you have to be the favorite, regardless of what you think still needs to be counted.

[GOWIFB]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

Republican senate and 6-3 court isn't that bad for next 2 years even if biden wins (which he should now)

I think it is too early to call this for Biden. I'm thinking Nevada probably goes his way since the same day vote is in and he is still in the lead. Wisconsin I think is still too early as votes that are outstanding are in Republican strongholds so I bet that Trump chips away at the small lead Biden currently has. Still don't know how MI and GA will play out.

[mnvikingstwins]

Originally Posted by zonacats8

Honestly, I'd be fine with that at this point, we just need adults back in the White House, and I don't think I'd say he "should" quite yet. I'd put it at 65/35 in favor of Trump at the moment. If you're in the lead at this point, you have to be the favorite, regardless of what you think still needs to be counted.

They're not much of an upgrade, Biden belongs in a senior retirement community and Kamala is embodiment of RBF

[rcmb3220]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

Republican senate and 6-3 court isn't that bad for next 2 years even if biden wins (which he should now)

Not if Trump can get all voting to stop.

[mnvikingstwins]

Anybody hammer Biden +500 for the half hour or so it was up?

[zonacats8]

So I have a very honest question here......

Outside of mail in ballots, why aren't voting totals known immediately after polls close (or when the voting is finished for people who are in line when the polls close as they're allowed to vote)?

Now I've only ever voted in the same location in my life, and I fill out my ballot and then put it into a machine that I counts my votes immediately (at least I assume it's counted right then and not just stored to be counted later). Which you'd think would then have the entire polling location totals the second voting is finished and could quickly and easily be reported.

If that's the case, how many polling locations don't have these machines and need to be counted in some other slower method?

In particular, what is the counting method used in major population centers as they always seem to be the slowest to return counts?

And why wouldn't the government not find a way to make sure every location has that machine so counts could be known immediately?

Probably a stupid question, but just seems like such an easy fix.

[zonacats8]

WOW... Biden just jumped to only about 60K behind in Michigan with still a lot of the vote to come back

Things just got INTERESTING

65K gap with only 83% reporting

[fadster]

A nice illustration of how things have swung back and forth overnight on the betting exchanges (UK time)

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

[mnvikingstwins]

Predicting it's declared by AP by today afternoon for Biden

[callou2131]

I find it odd that they would call VA with 1% of the vote in, but won't call other states with Trump having darn near an insurmountable lead. So happens that those are the states that stopped counting....just saying.

[rcmb3220]

Originally Posted by callou2131

I find it odd that they would call VA with 1% of the vote in, but won't call other states with Trump having darn near an insurmountable lead. So happens that those are the states that stopped counting....just saying.

Fox declared it right away. CNN didn’t for a long time. Who else called it early?

[yanksfan1]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

Predicting it's declared by AP by today afternoon for Biden

That would be irresponsible imo, this isn't something they can afford to get wrong

How many people stayed up the whole night? I had to call it around 2:30