2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP

[Boo]

New voter registration doesn't mean anything in states that aren't competitive to begin with. CA has 3 million more registered voters now than they did in 2016. So what, Trump loses by an extra 1.9 million or whatever. Popular vote will be Biden by a higher amount than in 2016 but that doesn't matter either.

[mike1498]

Originally Posted by JustRachel

That was a textbook response, lol. Still, it's not without merit.

Who said no competition? I didn't even imply it, I don't think. Competition is good. I'm not sure what you were getting at. We do not have one accountant. We have, I'd guess, several hundred thousand of them. More competition or less competition does not mean no competition.

About the socialist part, yeah. I think though, that people will see it how they see it. Some see a hammer and some see a house. Some think American citizenship by itself is the hammer.

I happen to think education is overrated, personally. I know that's going to be met with negativity here, but let me explain. I'm not saying education is bad. I most certainly encourage everyone to go that route. But....

Maybe the biggest inefficiency in our labor market is the time we spend preparing to work. Maybe 16 or 20 years is simply excessive. Maybe there is no need to require certain classes (like, half of them lol). Maybe longer working careers is the way to go. Maybe it doesn't take four years to learn accounting. Maybe a European history requirement is inefficient.

Ever wonder why 90% of degrees take the same number of credits to earn? Is it reasonable to assume that interior design and accounting would each take the exact amount of effort to learn?

I have two people in my life that dropped out of high school and became painters. By their mid-twenties, both were making more money than a recent college grad and neither had debt. Now, near 50, my brother made over 200k last year as a painter, running a 6 man crew for a company. The other, a friend, started his own painting company fifteen years ago and now clears high six figures (sometimes low seven).

My dumb ass got a degree in business admin. I never once earned more with it than my brother earned painting. I even had a company or two of my own along the way, and still he beats me every year. Why?

He busts his tail. Painting sucks. It's hot, sweaty, brutal work in the summer and even worse in the winter. Even if he's working indoors, he's always dirty. It just is a sucky job and he works hard at it anyway.

Merica

Getting too long lol. Sorry.

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I think we're closer than you think. If painters is where the market inefficiency is, lets fund more people to go into painting. I'll be honest, I don't know the barriers to painting but I assume even that requires some type of education.

I'm not pro degree. I'm more trying to correct inefficiencies of supply in the market by funding them in some way. It doesn't need to be "free education" like I've said, it can be a percentage of salary once they get a job.

If people don't want to work in jobs that are needed, then don't fund social programs. Simple as that.

I think it would be a hard argument to say there aren't jobs that make livable wages that are understaffed. Consumers will benefit when there are more players in the market. That's the truth.

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

Who cares?

I laugh when people take stuff like this to heart. Do I expect Trump to leave the country if he loses? No.

[lietuvalabas]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Everything in my brain says Trump will lose. Everything. I've lived my entire life based on math and stats and the polls all say the same thing; Trump will lose. It's hard to rewire up there to say "no dummy, don't you remember what happened four years ago".

We'll see. For me it boils down simply. In the state of Florida 9.6 million people voted in '16. And of that vote, Republicans turned out 65,000 more voters than Democrats (even though Dems had 400,000 more registered voters in the state). I'm watching daily to see if Trump can do it again. This time, Dems have only a 140,000 advantage in registered voters but Trump will need to turn out at LEAST 125,000 more Red voters than Blue. Because Florida will have 11 million voting this time.

7:01 pm ET, I call Florida for somebody. And if that's Joe; no need to stick around for the rest of it. If it's Trump ... we're gonna have some election night FUN!

like i said i love your daily updates. But this has to be good news about the early voting thus far right? is this also counting mail in ballots? I voted early in person, and the lines to me only seemed long because it was cold and you had to wait outside (covid precautions) so they only took a few in at a time, my guess is the majority of the votes already counted were mail in? This is extremely reassuring because i tend to believe the mostly dems are mailing in their votes, they tend to fear covid or what have you. i mean the few dem friends i do have are the most nervous about the virus, i havent asked them if the plan to vote in person or by mail, but i would guess they would be the mail in types. Don't get me wrong i take the virus serious myself, but theres something extra american about going to the polls in person to me. On the other hand i was visiting with some friends on saturday night (they are husband and wife) and he told me he was mailing it in, i gave him sort of a joking but disapproving look and he goes "what? imagine me and her trying to coordinate voting and taking care of the 3 kids" so you will have some republicans that may vote by mail out of convenience, but i bet most wont.

[lietuvalabas]

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

Who cares?

i mean i do care about people who make millions of dollars here who arent even welcome in their own home country because of their views there defacing our flag that so many have died for. If he is against the oppression of his people back home, so be it, but then you come here, the country of freedom and opportunity and deface our flag? He sure makes a lot of friends...

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by lietuvalabas

like i said i love your daily updates. But this has to be good news about the early voting thus far right? is this also counting mail in ballots? I voted early in person, and the lines to me only seemed long because it was cold and you had to wait outside (covid precautions) so they only took a few in at a time, my guess is the majority of the votes already counted were mail in? This is extremely reassuring because i tend to believe the mostly dems are mailing in their votes, they tend to fear covid or what have you. i mean the few dem friends i do have are the most nervous about the virus, i havent asked them if the plan to vote in person or by mail, but i would guess they would be the mail in types. Don't get me wrong i take the virus serious myself, but theres something extra american about going to the polls in person to me. On the other hand i was visiting with some friends on saturday night (they are husband and wife) and he told me he was mailing it in, i gave him sort of a joking but disapproving look and he goes "what? imagine me and her trying to coordinate voting and taking care of the 3 kids" so you will have some republicans that may vote by mail out of convenience, but i bet most wont.

Trump is doing far better than expected in FL as a whole right now regarding early voting. It's why most books have him favored to win FL right now and why the Predict it site has shifted the public money substantially in the last week.

But it means nothing until Tuesday. If Republicans show up, as many expect, Trump will win FL. But if the turnout is not what is expected, Biden will win. You just don't know if there's that large group of Red voters waiting for Tuesday, November 3rd until the day of.

Everyday, Trump cuts into the early lead of Biden. What's left come Tuesday, we'll see.

[DegaBama]

Hey, New Zealand is doing so well, that if you have the virus, you get to go to a quarantine camp! Man, I wish we had that!

[JustRachel]

Originally Posted by mike1498

I think we're closer than you think. If painters is where the market inefficiency is, lets fund more people to go into painting. I'll be honest, I don't know the barriers to painting but I assume even that requires some type of education.



I'm not pro degree. I'm more trying to correct inefficiencies of supply in the market by funding them in some way. It doesn't need to be "free education" like I've said, it can be a percentage of salary once they get a job.



If people don't want to work in jobs that are needed, then don't fund social programs. Simple as that.



I think it would be a hard argument to say there aren't jobs that make livable wages that are understaffed. Consumers will benefit when there are more players in the market. That's the truth.

I agree with all of this. 100%

We haven't been far apart at all.

As for painting, pretty much all you need is two arms, two legs, and the ability to climb ladders. Zero education at entry level.

My friend that owns a painting company did it by getting an entry level zero education job when he was like 17. He worked, kept his eyes open, and learned not only painting (not hard lol) but the business side as well. Apparently it's all about getting the juicy contracts. He met people in the industry that led to huge contracts later.

To go into business, he needed a contractor's license. He took like a two week course and dropped $3k on it, but still failed the exam, haha. Fortunately, he knew somebody that knew somebody...greased the right palms, and boom! License granted. (That part is not in the textbooks lol). The contract game is similar. Skinny wallets don't make careers. Fatten em up a bit and boom. Contract granted.

My point was, though, that if our biggest inefficiency is education (and I believe it is), then shortening academic careers and lengthening working careers would have a dual effect. It brings down the cost of education in the first place, allowing skilled training to be available without as much funding. Revamping our education system is much more intelligent than throwing money at it.

Sadly, you'll never see that taught by anyone, anywhere. Imagine trying to sell textbooks that say we don't need as many textbooks, or colleges teaching we don't need as much college. Never gonna happen.

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[mike1498]

Originally Posted by JustRachel

I agree with all of this. 100%

We haven't been far apart at all.

As for painting, pretty much all you need is two arms, two legs, and the ability to climb ladders. Zero education at entry level.

My friend that owns a painting company did it by getting an entry level zero education job when he was like 17. He worked, kept his eyes open, and learned not only painting (not hard lol) but the business side as well. Apparently it's all about getting the juicy contracts. He met people in the industry that led to huge contracts later.

To go into business, he needed a contractor's license. He took like a two week course and dropped $3k on it, but still failed the exam, haha. Fortunately, he knew somebody that knew somebody...greased the right palms, and boom! License granted. (That part is not in the textbooks lol). The contract game is similar. Skinny wallets don't make careers. Fatten em up a bit and boom. Contract granted.

My point was, though, that if our biggest inefficiency is education (and I believe it is), then shortening academic careers and lengthening working careers would have a dual effect. It brings down the cost of education in the first place, allowing skilled training to be available without as much funding. Revamping our education system is much more intelligent than throwing money at it.

Sadly, you'll never see that taught by anyone, anywhere. Imagine trying to sell textbooks that say we don't need as many textbooks, or colleges teaching we don't need as much college. Never gonna happen.

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Don't get me wrong, I do believe that education is a business and recently it's gotten to levels where I think it will be dangerous in the long term. I'm quite aware in a lot of ways it's a scam. I also realize for the specific job I'm looking to pursue I basically have to accept that fact. I don't know if the supply is related to education (in terms of if college didn't exist the demand shouldn't change either). That's why it scares me that it is causing a barrier for individuals.

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

Hey, New Zealand is doing so well, that if you have the virus, you get to go to a quarantine camp! Man, I wish we had that!

That is terrible.

It sucks to be the best in the world at the virus infections and deaths.

Too bad there wasn't another country that had their first infection the same day we did, to see "what could have been" vs the nightmare we are currently living.

[Boo]

Waiting on PA to get shut down again on Sunday or Monday.

[Vintage Collector]

Blah blah blah. Corona. Keep some distance. Wash your hands and dont stick your fingers in your face and you will be fine.

[GOWIFB]

Originally Posted by lionsfan20

Lol how much xanex does it take for you just to make it through the day? R-E-L-A-X buddy. The world is not ending. In fact your day to day life will not even change regardless of who wins election. The sun will still rise and set. You will still go to work/school. The world will still spin. Take a deep breath.

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The country as we know it has continued to deteriorate every since the GOP went insane after Obama was elected. Voter suppression, precision gerrymandering that causes them to maintain a stranglehold at the state level, changing election results after the fact, withholding judicial seats in order to stack the courts, etc etc. As I said there is basically no way that democrats can ever regain power in this country again as everything is unfairly stacked against them.

I used to consider GOP candidates in the 00s and may have even voted for one or two, can't recall as it was so long ago. I would always review who I thought was the best candidate. Now there is basically no chance I will ever support a GOP candidate even though I am officially a moderate that leans left due to social issues. I don't like what I see coming from alot of democrats but saving the country and democracy is more important than policy.

[JustRachel]

Originally Posted by mike1498

Don't get me wrong, I do believe that education is a business and recently it's gotten to levels where I think it will be dangerous in the long term. I'm quite aware in a lot of ways it's a scam. I also realize for the specific job I'm looking to pursue I basically have to accept that fact. I don't know if the supply is related to education (in terms of if college didn't exist the demand shouldn't change either). That's why it scares me that it is causing a barrier for individuals.

Yeah.

Obviously education is necessary. I can't underscore that enough. It's where skilled labor comes from. And many careers simply cannot be learned through apprenticeships. Universities are and always will be important.

But, what if we cut out the excess? What if Underwater Basket Weaving wasn't an elective one had to pay for in order to get a degree in accounting? (Obviously, it isn't...but many required courses are equally as irrelevant.) What if we cut out all the stuff that just doesn't prepare people for specific workforce needs? I'd bet we could cut 30% or more without sacrificing the quality of graduates our system produces.

That not only makes education less expensive (30% less, theoretically) and eliminates the need for additional funding, but it also increases the length of our average working career. Nothing else I've heard can correct as much inefficiency in our labor pool/market than that one act.

But, how to do it? It might be impossible. So now what? Back to your idea of targeted funding.

That was a long way of saying I'm with you on it, lol.

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[mike1498]

Originally Posted by JustRachel

Yeah.

Obviously education is necessary. I can't underscore that enough. It's where skilled labor comes from. And many careers simply cannot be learned through apprenticeships. Universities are and always will be important.

But, what if we cut out the excess? What if Underwater Basket Weaving wasn't an elective one had to pay for in order to get a degree in accounting? (Obviously, it isn't...but many required courses are equally as irrelevant.) What if we cut out all the stuff that just doesn't prepare people for specific workforce needs? I'd bet we could cut 30% or more without sacrificing the quality of graduates our system produces.

That not only makes education less expensive (30% less, theoretically) and eliminates the need for additional funding, but it also increases the length of our average working career. Nothing else I've heard can correct as much inefficiency in our labor pool/market than that one act.

But, how to do it? It might be impossible. So now what? Back to your idea of targeted funding.

That was a long way of saying I'm with you on it, lol.

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Well we both agree on this idea. I would have no problem if the government was to implement this. Their job is to regulate and I don't think they regulate education enough (clearly). That's probably an even easier solution but I guess schools would have to increase their prices even more to substitute the stupid classes we're required to take to subsidize the majors that require more capital. It's probably more or less why you have to take under water basket weaving.

[lionsfan20]

Originally Posted by oshmeehan

Based on your "logic", 99.9% of the black population in the US should not identify as African-American then.



Her saying she is an Indian-American, African-American, or Asian-American are all accurate

The problem is she only identifies as the one that benefits her most that day. It's shady.

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[lionsfan20]

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

Who cares?

It's hilarious. And the left would be laughing Trump supporters out of this thread if the tables were turned.

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[lionsfan20]

Originally Posted by GOWIFB

The country as we know it has continued to deteriorate every since the GOP went insane after Obama was elected. Voter suppression, precision gerrymandering that causes them to maintain a stranglehold at the state level, changing election results after the fact, withholding judicial seats in order to stack the courts, etc etc. As I said there is basically no way that democrats can ever regain power in this country again as everything is unfairly stacked against them.



I used to consider GOP candidates in the 00s and may have even voted for one or two, can't recall as it was so long ago. I would always review who I thought was the best candidate. Now there is basically no chance I will ever support a GOP candidate even though I am officially a moderate that leans left due to social issues. I don't like what I see coming from alot of democrats but saving the country and democracy is more important than policy.

You must live in a different world than me. My family, community, and my bank account have never been better. If it wasn't for coronavirus 2020 would have been one of the best years of my life lol. I think your doing it wrong. Life that is.

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[JustRachel]

Originally Posted by oshmeehan

Based on your "logic", 99.9% of the black population in the US should not identify as African-American then.



Her saying she is an Indian-American, African-American, or Asian-American are all accurate

I've always wondered about this. I mean, it's no big deal or anything, people can identify however they like and I couldn't care less. But I'm still curious as to why.

Most African Americans have never even been to Africa. My family came over from Germany a couple generations ago. I do not refer to myself as a German American. I've never been there and I don't speak the language.

I consider myself just an American. If I wanted to get more specific, I guess I'd go with white American...but german american doesn't even enter my mind.

Again, people are entitled to define themselves without judgement from me. I am merely curious.

African American sounds like an African immigrant to me. Black American or just American sounds better to my ear.

Kamala...hmmm...idk. Maybe just American. Wasn't she born here? Jamaican-Indian American sounds weird. Has she ever even been there?

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[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by lionsfan20

You must live in a different world than me. My family, community, and my bank account have never been better. If it wasn't for coronavirus 2020 would have been one of the best years of my life lol. I think your doing it wrong. Life that is.

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Same. Might be time to look in the mirror if the past four years have been abnormally difficult for you. Or just Xanax the pain away... whatever works.

[NeedChapmans]

One of the crazier outliers in polls for me is that in the recent Times/Siena poll of Pennsylvania that has Biden winning by 7; the margin in Philadelphia according to that poll is 70/24 Biden.

Clinton won Philadelphia 82/15. 584,000 votes to 108,000 votes. If 70/24 is accurate; on 700,000 votes, that means it would be 490,000 to 168,000 and the blue team has 150,000 less votes in the city. That's a lot of burb votes you think your banking to overcome the 50,000 vote loss in the state + the much lower spread in the city.

IDK; a lot of these polls have some crazy lines embedded in them; will be interesting to see what is right and what is just insanely wrong.

[mike1498]

Originally Posted by JustRachel

I've always wondered about this. I mean, it's no big deal or anything, people can identify however they like and I couldn't care less. But I'm still curious as to why.

Most African Americans have never even been to Africa. My family came over from Germany a couple generations ago. I do not refer to myself as a German American. I've never been there and I don't speak the language.

I consider myself just an American. If I wanted to get more specific, I guess I'd go with white American...but german american doesn't even enter my mind.

Again, people are entitled to define themselves without judgement from me. I am merely curious.

African American sounds like an African immigrant to me. Black American or just American sounds better to my ear.

Kamala...hmmm...idk. Maybe just American. Wasn't she born here? Jamaican-Indian American sounds weird. Has she ever even been there?

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If you want my honest opinion, I think it has to do with cultural differences. In my opinion whites have a pretty similar culture so they tend not to distinguish themselves differently.

Like I've already said, I've overheard African American's say that Kamala is not a "true" African American. I also know my uncle is black but prefers not to be called African American because he's I believe Puerto Rican. (If not, it's one of the Caribbean islands).

Why are Indians, Japanese and Chinese not just Asians? Sometimes they're all grouped together, but usually it doesn't make sense since their history is drastically different.

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

That is terrible.

It sucks to be the best in the world at the virus infections and deaths.

Too bad there wasn't another country that had their first infection the same day we did, to see "what could have been" vs the nightmare we are currently living.

Zero comparison, we know this. It's just sad that they are resorting to some "camp" over all the fear.

[fungi2510]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

Zero comparison, we know this. It's just sad that they are resorting to some "camp" over all the fear.

Of it is effective with such a small amount of cases.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

Agreed up there to the buckets.

Crunching numbers here: 2016 had 136 million votes counted and Trump won 46.1% of those.

This was the "silent" Trump supporters who came out and he won.

Now, in 2020 the projection is 160-165 million votes to be counted. An increase of 24-30 million more votes.
I am just not seeing Trump picking up any more than 46% again this round and with the larger denominator, he would have to get 11-13 million MORE people to vote for him this time that did not vote in 2016 - just to stay at that 46%.

Obviously, this is all dependent upon the total votes counted.

Right now, early vote counts are 20 million ahead of the total for 2016

It will be interesting to see the numbers as they come in .

the ways democrats have acted the past four years i can easily see why millions and millions of more republicans would come out to vote.