2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

If Trump loses, I'm going to miss him.

I wonder if it is more Bannon / Giuliani "found" Hunter Biden emails?

[wood minis]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

If Trump loses, I'm going to miss him.

I would feel better about Trump if his focus was as laser for the betterment of the Country as it is for trying to dig up dirt on Biden. If he was proud of his accomplishments and record, why the desire for a smear campaign?

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by wood minis

I would feel better about Trump if his focus was as laser for the betterment of the Country as it is for trying to dig up dirt on Biden. If he was proud of his accomplishments and record, why the desire for a smear campaign?

Because it's effective. How many times have you heard "Nobody has done more for this country than me" and "I've done more in 47 months than Joe has done in 47 years".

He touts his accomplishments, surely he lets everyone know. But as many have said here; he also needs to take the focus squarely off of him, because tens of millions of people hate him. Make the election about Joe. Also why Joe is currently in hiding and doesn't answer questions. When Joe's answer is "If I answer this, the headline will be about me, and we don't want to lose focus" ... he's absolutely correct. No answers means no focus.

[Locoduck]

Originally Posted by Boo

The classic response when you know you've been got!

BTW, you won't be able to afford the rent in my mind.

Another internet winner!!!! Plenty of those here. Though most of them ate fading away

[kerg]

Originally Posted by wood minis

I would feel better about Trump if his focus was as laser for the betterment of the Country as it is for trying to dig up dirt on Biden.

Now change the words Trump to Dems and Biden to Trump.

Works both ways.

[gopherfan]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I have this around my neck and a wall poster in my office. When you learn of the things you can control and the impact you can have... it will change your life.

Stopping a contagious virus from spreading to hundreds of millions of people is not one of those things.

I have that right above my kitchen sink. Life changing words.

[ucLAkers]

Lets revisit the elevator scenario....except lets put it on a plane.

https://www.newsweek.com/maskless-wo...y-dies-1540291

[wood minis]

Originally Posted by kerg

Now change the words Trump to Dems and Biden to Trump.

Works both ways.

Fair point. It's all disgusting. Maybe some day someone will win taking the high road.

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by Locoduck

Another internet winner!!!! Plenty of those here. Though most of them ate fading away

Like heelie? He definitely ate something bad.

[Jgil316]

Trump team accusing Whitmer of encouraging assassination attempt of the POTUS.

Trumps team AND Fox have both gone off their damn rockers.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...ress-interview

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by wood minis

I would feel better about Trump if his focus was as laser for the betterment of the Country as it is for trying to dig up dirt on Biden. If he was proud of his accomplishments and record, why the desire for a smear campaign?

You have a guy in Biden who is running for Presidency of the greatest country in the world... where he has virtually zero focus on what he will do when elected besides using "Trump" in his platform.

Not disagreeing 100% with your statement, but it goes both ways.

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

You have a guy in Biden who is running for Presidency of the greatest country in the world... where he has virtually zero focus on what he will do when elected besides using "Trump" in his platform.

Not disagreeing 100% with your statement, but it goes both ways.

I have absolutely no idea where you heard Biden had no platform - he has a plan and a platform.
Trump on the other hand can not say what his second term would look like, at all.

[ucLAkers]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

Going down the interstate yesterday I see a TRUMP 2020 motorcade on the other side. Probably 50 vehicles with flags proudly flying. Love to see it.

Yea I saw one too....not a single person of color. I guess Ice Cube & Kanye weren’t invited....
I vomited lightly in my mouth! Don’t love to see it.

[JustRachel]

Originally Posted by ucLAkers

Lets revisit the elevator scenario....except lets put it on a plane.

https://www.newsweek.com/maskless-wo...y-dies-1540291

Wowsers.

I'm actually a bit surprised scenarios like this haven't played out more often.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[ucLAkers]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

I have absolutely no idea where you heard Biden had no platform - he has a plan and a platform.
Trump on the other hand can not say what his second term would look like, at all.

The entire platform is laid out on their site...including a Covid plan.

[gopherfan]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

Trump team accusing Whitmer of encouraging assassination attempt of the POTUS.

Trumps team AND Fox have both gone off their damn rockers.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...ress-interview

He didn't encourage her to be kidnapped, and she isn't encouraging assassination attempts. Both sides are ridiculous.

[NeedChapmans]

I have new election data and I'm giddy (only because I have new data).

Longish post but stay with me if you can. Marion county FL is right in the middle of the state, went to Trump in 2016 and they're reporting all voting and updating every 10 minutes. Florida is awesome at this, why I follow that state closely and try to catch the trends. Did so in 2016 and it was awesome, doing it again in 2020.

Anyway, Marion county voted for Trump in 2016. This was the final vote

Trump - 107,833
Clinton - 62,041

On election day, registrations were as follows

Republicans - 102,201
Democrats - 78,732
Independents - 52,841

Now fast forward to 2020 and you have a bigger edge in registrations for Republicans. Ipso factor, Trump SHOULD outperform his #'s in this county in 2020 and if he does not, it's a terrible sign for his re-election. Now the registration is

Republicans - 117,604 (+15,403 from last election)
Democrats - 82,466 (+3,734 from last election)
Independents - 58,268 (+5,427 from last election)

Marion county is reporting received mail ballots daily and received early in person vote ballots every 10 minutes. As of this very moment, Dems hold a lead in total ballots which is impressive because they're down considerably in registration.

Democrats - 24,886 votes cast
Republicans - 21,895 votes cast
Independents - 8,892 votes cast

But as early voting has started, you can see Republicans outpacing Dems considerably.

Republicans - 3,179 votes cast
Democrats - 1,817 votes cast
Independents - 730 votes cast

Over the next two weeks, you'll probably see the Republican deficit turn into a lead; the only thing left to figure out is who does a better job of getting their party to the polls. Whichever "team" has a better % for turnout is likely to win FL, just as was the case in 2016 and 2018. Ground game matters in swing states tremendously.

[discostu]

I believe that we've rounded the corner so many times that we're all just dizzy.

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I have new election data and I'm giddy (only because I have new data).

Longish post but stay with me if you can. Marion county FL is right in the middle of the state, went to Trump in 2016 and they're reporting all voting and updating every 10 minutes. Florida is awesome at this, why I follow that state closely and try to catch the trends. Did so in 2016 and it was awesome, doing it again in 2020.

Anyway, Marion county voted for Trump in 2016. This was the final vote

Trump - 107,833
Clinton - 62,041

On election day, registrations were as follows

Republicans - 102,201
Democrats - 78,732
Independents - 52,841

Now fast forward to 2020 and you have a bigger edge in registrations for Republicans. Ipso factor, Trump SHOULD outperform his #'s in this county in 2020 and if he does not, it's a terrible sign for his re-election. Now the registration is

Republicans - 117,604 (+15,403 from last election)
Democrats - 82,466 (+3,734 from last election)
Independents - 58,268 (+5,427 from last election)

Marion county is reporting received mail ballots daily and received early in person vote ballots every 10 minutes. As of this very moment, Dems hold a lead in total ballots which is impressive because they're down considerably in registration.

Democrats - 24,886 votes cast
Republicans - 21,895 votes cast
Independents - 8,892 votes cast

But as early voting has started, you can see Republicans outpacing Dems considerably.

Republicans - 3,179 votes cast
Democrats - 1,817 votes cast
Independents - 730 votes cast

Over the next two weeks, you'll probably see the Republican deficit turn into a lead; the only thing left to figure out is who does a better job of getting their party to the polls. Whichever "team" has a better % for turnout is likely to win FL, just as was the case in 2016 and 2018. Ground game matters in swing states tremendously.

Where do the Independents fall into this?

[fungi2510]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I have new election data and I'm giddy (only because I have new data).

Longish post but stay with me if you can. Marion county FL is right in the middle of the state, went to Trump in 2016 and they're reporting all voting and updating every 10 minutes. Florida is awesome at this, why I follow that state closely and try to catch the trends. Did so in 2016 and it was awesome, doing it again in 2020.

Anyway, Marion county voted for Trump in 2016. This was the final vote

Trump - 107,833
Clinton - 62,041

On election day, registrations were as follows

Republicans - 102,201
Democrats - 78,732
Independents - 52,841

Now fast forward to 2020 and you have a bigger edge in registrations for Republicans. Ipso factor, Trump SHOULD outperform his #'s in this county in 2020 and if he does not, it's a terrible sign for his re-election. Now the registration is

Republicans - 117,604 (+15,403 from last election)
Democrats - 82,466 (+3,734 from last election)
Independents - 58,268 (+5,427 from last election)

Marion county is reporting received mail ballots daily and received early in person vote ballots every 10 minutes. As of this very moment, Dems hold a lead in total ballots which is impressive because they're down considerably in registration.

Democrats - 24,886 votes cast
Republicans - 21,895 votes cast
Independents - 8,892 votes cast

But as early voting has started, you can see Republicans outpacing Dems considerably.

Republicans - 3,179 votes cast
Democrats - 1,817 votes cast
Independents - 730 votes cast

Over the next two weeks, you'll probably see the Republican deficit turn into a lead; the only thing left to figure out is who does a better job of getting their party to the polls. Whichever "team" has a better % for turnout is likely to win FL, just as was the case in 2016 and 2018. Ground game matters in swing states tremendously.

Why use data from a county where he won almost 2-1? If it is anything less than that, Trump is in big trouble. Obviously he had a huge base in 2016 in this county. The rest of the country was not the same. If he is struggling here, what will happen in places that he was not as successful in before?

[fungi2510]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

Where do the Independents fall into this?

We all know the answer to this, but I am guessing you will get nothing more than a half answer.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

Where do the Independents fall into this?

Independents vote at a much lower rate than both Rep / Dems so their turnout numbers are always very low comparatively speaking.

In the 2016 election; the vote for independents was 43% Trump / 42% Clinton on a national scale. One would suspect the vote to be similarly divided in 2020 and as Florida was decided by 1% in 2016, I think that's a fair representation of how the votes were cast.

No stock in terms of value of the single Independent vote for me. I presume a 50/50 split this year.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by fungi2510

Why use data from a county where he won almost 2-1? If it is anything less than that, Trump is in big trouble. Obviously he had a huge base in 2016 in this county. The rest of the country was not the same. If he is struggling here, what will happen in places that he was not as successful in before?

Because the data is easily accessible and updated. I know Trump will win this county but that's not the point. If he's not outperforming his turnout #'s in 2016, he'll be toast nationally as well. It's a good marker to see whether or not he stands a chance.

Florida is a must-win state and to win, he must use the 200,000 registration advantage his party gave him over the last four years. If the Red team is not coming out to vote; by 7pm election day, I'll call it! Won't even need to wait for the results if the margin isn't bigger than '16 here.

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

I have absolutely no idea where you heard Biden had no platform - he has a plan and a platform.
Trump on the other hand can not say what his second term would look like, at all.

Clearly it isn't being discussed a lot without using the word, "Trump".

Originally Posted by ucLAkers

The entire platform is laid out on their site...including a Covid plan.

A COVID plan that won't really work any differently than Trump's, except spending more money. Which I'm okay with if we stop having a stimulus plan in place when many don't need it. However, we will see a lot of the "free" stuff, in our taxes.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Because the data is easily accessible and updated. I know Trump will win this county but that's not the point. If he's not outperforming his turnout #'s in 2016, he'll be toast nationally as well. It's a good marker to see whether or not he stands a chance.

Florida is a must-win state and to win, he must use the 200,000 registration advantage his party gave him over the last four years. If the Red team is not coming out to vote; by 7pm election day, I'll call it! Won't even need to wait for the results if the margin isn't bigger than '16 here.

Right now, Dems have 25,017 of a possible 82,466 votes. 30.33% total turnout. Republicans have 22,180 of a possible 117,604 votes. 18.86% total turnout. Quite the disparity mail in voting has given the Republicans ... if they're not ahead come the close of the polls, Trump loses.