Junk Slab Era? - Page 2

HarryLime · 10-02-2020, 09:58 AM

I admit, I look at some of these modern pop reports and just shake my head. But the truth is, we're seeing more and more collectors (re)enter the hobby than ever before and with the hobby boom kids closing in on their peak earning years it's only going to grow more.

So I think we're going to have to accept that what we previously associated with "low" and "high" pops is going to have to change.

Anyone that's been collecting the '80s cards has had to face that. We used to look at cards with 1,500 pops and just shrug them off ("I can pick one of those up whenever.") and then the demand grew so much that 1,500 didn't come close to satiating demand and prices went through the roof.

What if there were only 1,500 US250s or US300s? Can you even imagine what that market would look like?

So yes, we need to keep an eye on the pop reports, but we also must be cognizant of the overall growth of the hobby and how that creates a demand that may be able to handle that pop report growth or even supersede it.

Arthur

tcdyess · 10-02-2020, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I admit, I look at some of these modern pop reports and just shake my head. But the truth is, we're seeing more and more collectors (re)enter the hobby than ever before and with the hobby boom kids closing in on their peak earning years it's only going to grow more.

So I think we're going to have to accept that what we previously associated with "low" and "high" pops is going to have to change.

Anyone that's been collecting the '80s cards has had to face that. We used to look at cards with 1,500 pops and just shrug them off ("I can pick one of those up whenever.") and then the demand grew so much that 1,500 didn't come close to satiating demand and prices went through the roof.

What if there were only 1,500 US250s or US300s? Can you even imagine what that market would look like?

So yes, we need to keep an eye on the pop reports, but we also must be cognizant of the overall growth of the hobby and how that creates a demand that may be able to handle that pop report growth or even supersede it.

Arthur

But I think many of the new influx of "collectors" will quickly leave as this massive increase in new slabs can't sustain increased values... as that happens, then demand will decrease and the new slabs will be more available... I think we have seen this starting to happen already...

discodanman45 · 10-02-2020, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tcdyess

But I think many of the new influx of "collectors" will quickly leave as this massive increase in new slabs can't sustain increased values... as that happens, then demand will decrease and the new slabs will be more available... I think we have seen this starting to happen already...

These "collectors" can't quickly leave. Many sportscard investors have thousands of cards sitting at PSA and won't be graded for many months. Getting out is not so easy right now in this weird world of cards taking 6 months to be graded!

Vintage is going to continue to increase because of the low population numbers, even cards in the early 80's have very low PSA 9 and 10 numbers. IMO I think it is silly grading second year cards of players, but it is their money so go at it! I could buy a PSA 9 Hakeem Olajuwon card for $100 and that is a pretty hard card to get at that grade and that supply is pretty limited by all accounts. Doncic will be lucky if he is even mentioned in the same breath as The Dream at the end of his career. Twenty years from now who will even want a Doncic second year card? Jordan rookies and second year cards are undervalued compared to modern cards and those prices are insane. I am 100% staying out of modern cards until this madness subsides!

MoreToppsPlease · 10-02-2020, 10:24 AM

There’s nothing special about a slab. The card in the slab on the other hand...

epatmythes · 10-02-2020, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3124508 on COMC

Roughly 5%-10% by volume. Way more by value.

Irresponsible, fear-mongering, baseless claim if I've ever seen one...

That's your answer to, What percentage of cards are trimmed and graded by PSA?

The answer is... Unkown, but any is too many, and the number is, unfortunately, way higher than Zero! By my recollection, anytime anyone challenges a BODA tagged member... the standard response has been, "show me the proof".

As of today's ticker on the PSA website... 85,089,011 collectibles certified. For the sake of argument, let's just say half of that is cards... that will handle this number accounting for 10%, and the full number addressing 5%.

Please BODA... show us your list containing at least 4.25 MILLION trimmed cards in PSA cases to substantiate your claim...

cardsin47 · 10-02-2020, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Hakeem Olajuwon ..,, Doncic will be lucky if he is even mentioned in the same breath as The Dream at the end of his career.

Or...... if you switch these 2 players names n your sentence, it may be much more accurate

.,.. time will tell

3124508 on COMC · 10-02-2020, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epatmythes

Irresponsible, fear-mongering, baseless claim if I've ever seen one...

That's your answer to, What percentage of cards are trimmed and graded by PSA?

The answer is... Unkown, but any is too many, and the number is, unfortunately, way higher than Zero! By my recollection, anytime anyone challenges a BODA tagged member... the standard response has been, "show me the proof".

As of today's ticker on the PSA website... 85,089,011 collectibles certified. For the sake of argument, let's just say half of that is cards... that will handle this number accounting for 10%, and the full number addressing 5%.

Please BODA... show us your list containing at least 4.25 MILLION trimmed cards in PSA cases to substantiate your claim...

discodanman45 · 10-02-2020, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3124508 on COMC

Roughly 5%-10% by volume. Way more by value.

Wow, what evidence or statistics do you have to back this up. The answer is you would probably fail statistics. Try to back your claim up, but you can't. According to your statistics somewhere between 2,000,000 and 4,000,000 trimmed cards are out there.

3124508 on COMC · 10-02-2020, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Wow, what evidence or statistics do you have to back this up. The answer is you would probably fail statistics. Try to back your claim up, but you can't. According to your statistics somewhere between 2,000,000 and 4,000,000 trimmed cards are out there.

I’m working on it. Let me know if you’d like to help. Email is below.

discodanman45 · 10-02-2020, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3124508 on COMC

I’m working on it. Let me know if you’d like to help. Email is below.

ETA: and your total number is way off. Let’s see evidence that half of that is cards.

I know how numbers work, I have done research with numbers that you wouldn't understand. I would bet my life that less than 0.1% of cards graded by PSA are trimmed. The real number is probably less than 0.01%.

ThoseBackPages · 10-02-2020, 10:43 AM

i want the slab, i buy the slab. "Pop" reports dont mean much. People who sell cards often fail to realize...

worry about what people want, not what the pop report says

MoreToppsPlease · 10-02-2020, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Wow, what evidence or statistics do you have to back this up. The answer is you would probably fail statistics. Try to back your claim up, but you can't. According to your statistics somewhere between 2,000,000 and 4,000,000 trimmed cards are out there.

PSA themselves admit to an error rate that I’m guessing includes trimmed cards. It’s reasonable to assume they underreport that rate.

discodanman45 · 10-02-2020, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

PSA themselves admit to an error rate that I’m guessing includes trimmed cards. It’s reasonable to assume they underreport that rate.

What is the error rate that they admit to? Please give me numbers. Pulling 5-10% out of a hat doesn't have any meaning. Also it is not reasonable to assume anything without any evidence.

SDCards · 10-02-2020, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i want the slab, i buy the slab. "Pop" reports dont mean much. People who sell cards often fail to realize...

worry about what people want, not what the pop report says

Couldn't agree with this more....

discodanman45 · 10-02-2020, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i want the slab, i buy the slab. "Pop" reports dont mean much. People who sell cards often fail to realize...

worry about what people want, not what the pop report says

I have a PSA 6 Dave Winfield rookie that looks better than all of the PSA 7's that I see out there. I also have a gorgeous Rickey Henderson rookie in a PSA 7 that looks MUCH better than my PSA 8 Cal Ripken Topps Trade rookie. I am probably going to sell my Cal Ripken rookie because I would be just as happy with a PSA 7 and pocket the money on a swap.

PSA 10's I guess are important for modern collectors because of POP reports being so high, but for me I can't tell the difference between a PSA 9 and 10 without seeing the grade. I only have one PSA 10 in my collection that I will keep. The 1984 Puckett Fleer Update is nicer than most PSA 10's because it has absolute perfect centering and I don't think I could ever get a card as nice. However, it is tempting to sell it at $900 and buy a PSA 9 Puckett, Clemens, and Gooden. I would even have enough money left over to take the kids out for dinner.

epatmythes · 10-02-2020, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3124508 on COMC

It was a guess, for as I said, the sake of argument. I wasn't sure you could get the actual numbers... so, thanks for sharing those links (Seriously, that's good info). Toss in the other "card" categories... I get 29,037,359. The Misc category is also sports... so if you want to just talk sportscard numbers... that's actually 26,300,556.

My guess was off... I was wrong... I can admit that!

It's okay to be wrong... and own it!

Or, please provide the list of those 1,315,027 to 2,630,055 trimmed cards in PSA slabs. We'd all love to see... I know I would!

vwnut13 · 10-02-2020, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Also it is not reasonable to assume anything without any evidence.

Assume that all graded cards are altered.

Scottish Punk · 10-02-2020, 01:56 PM

That is the trouble with trimming in graded cards. Until actual measurements are put on cards and regraded, it is darn near impossible to decipher how much is trimmed. Or when the trimmers go ahead and admit/turn over their PSA submissions. I agree 5% seems way to high. I am sure 312 is suffering from some selection bias when figuring that.

What I mean is that is constantly looking at cards in card segments that are more likely to be trimmed. In that context, 5% seems much more likely. Say, focusing in on popular vintage stars and old sets. I highly doubt the thousands and thousands of ultra modern cards are trimmed. Does that 26 million include pokemon/magic? What is the trimming rate on those?

All that being said, 5% on selected market segments is enough to taint the waters for all of it.

ThoseBackPages · 10-02-2020, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I have a PSA 6 Dave Winfield rookie that looks better than all of the PSA 7's that I see out there. I also have a gorgeous Rickey Henderson rookie in a PSA 7 that looks MUCH better than my PSA 8 Cal Ripken Topps Trade rookie. I am probably going to sell my Cal Ripken rookie because I would be just as happy with a PSA 7 and pocket the money on a swap.

PSA 10's I guess are important for modern collectors because of POP reports being so high, but for me I can't tell the difference between a PSA 9 and 10 without seeing the grade. I only have one PSA 10 in my collection that I will keep. The 1984 Puckett Fleer Update is nicer than most PSA 10's because it has absolute perfect centering and I don't think I could ever get a card as nice. However, it is tempting to sell it at $900 and buy a PSA 9 Puckett, Clemens, and Gooden. I would even have enough money left over to take the kids out for dinner.

stop with the rational thinking Sir! LOL

dfwsoccer01 · 10-02-2020, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

These "collectors" can't quickly leave. Many sportscard investors have thousands of cards sitting at PSA and won't be graded for many months. Getting out is not so easy right now in this weird world of cards taking 6 months to be graded!

Vintage is going to continue to increase because of the low population numbers, even cards in the early 80's have very low PSA 9 and 10 numbers. IMO I think it is silly grading second year cards of players, but it is their money so go at it! I could buy a PSA 9 Hakeem Olajuwon card for $100 and that is a pretty hard card to get at that grade and that supply is pretty limited by all accounts. Doncic will be lucky if he is even mentioned in the same breath as The Dream at the end of his career. Twenty years from now who will even want a Doncic second year card? Jordan rookies and second year cards are undervalued compared to modern cards and those prices are insane. I am 100% staying out of modern cards until this madness subsides!

Yep. I’m sitting on low pop 85-86 Star Jordan cards that hover around a grand...Yet, all these Prizm rc’s for modern players go for $2000. It’s just stupid how people pay for the current players, simply to HOPE they become the next Lebron or Mike Trout.....

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

HarryLime · 10-03-2020, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I have a PSA 6 Dave Winfield rookie that looks better than all of the PSA 7's that I see out there. I also have a gorgeous Rickey Henderson rookie in a PSA 7 that looks MUCH better than my PSA 8 Cal Ripken Topps Trade rookie. I am probably going to sell my Cal Ripken rookie because I would be just as happy with a PSA 7 and pocket the money on a swap.

PSA 10's I guess are important for modern collectors because of POP reports being so high, but for me I can't tell the difference between a PSA 9 and 10 without seeing the grade. I only have one PSA 10 in my collection that I will keep. The 1984 Puckett Fleer Update is nicer than most PSA 10's because it has absolute perfect centering and I don't think I could ever get a card as nice. However, it is tempting to sell it at $900 and buy a PSA 9 Puckett, Clemens, and Gooden. I would even have enough money left over to take the kids out for dinner.

That's pretty awesome (seriously). I wish I weren't able to see the the things that differentiate cards from different grades. I would do exactly what you're doing -- find a mid-grade card on the cheap and sell my higher-dollar stuff.

I can't do that though. I can look at a card for 5 seconds and see why it's a 9 and not a 10 and I will forever see that flaw first whenever I look at the card in the future. I won't be able to look past it.

This certainly doesn't mean that I just blindly buy any PSA 10 example. But it definitely means that I narrow my search to PSA 10 examples and then look those over until I find "my" card.

The important thing though is that people collect differently. Just because we have different philosophies or approaches doesn't mean one person is "wrong" or "right" and the other person needs to change. Just do you and have fun with the hobby and let others do the same.

Arthur

k13 · 10-03-2020, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

Ronnies will be fine but what about the thousands upon millions of washout prospects and RCs that the speculative market has fueled? The overall percentage of irrelevant modern slabs from say 8 -10 years ago on a running cycle has to be pretty staggering.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Those were going to be worthless anyway.

dmanrico · 10-03-2020, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryLime

That's pretty awesome (seriously). I wish I weren't able to see the the things that differentiate cards from different grades. I would do exactly what you're doing -- find a mid-grade card on the cheap and sell my higher-dollar stuff.

I can't do that though. I can look at a card for 5 seconds and see why it's a 9 and not a 10 and I will forever see that flaw first whenever I look at the card in the future. I won't be able to look past it.

This certainly doesn't mean that I just blindly buy any PSA 10 example. But it definitely means that I narrow my search to PSA 10 examples and then look those over until I find "my" card.

The important thing though is that people collect differently. Just because we have different philosophies or approaches doesn't mean one person is "wrong" or "right" and the other person needs to change. Just do you and have fun with the hobby and let others do the same.

Arthur

Very well said and this is exactly how I feel.

discodanman45 · 10-03-2020, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I can't do that though. I can look at a card for 5 seconds and see why it's a 9 and not a 10 and I will forever see that flaw first whenever I look at the card in the future.

Modern collecting is definitely different from the cards I collect. If I had that mentality I wouldn't own any cards. However, the few modern cards I have need to be PSA 10 so I know how modern is different. If you want perfection, collecting 70s and 80s is not for you. Take for example Tony Gwynn's Donruss rookie. All copies have a smear print defect at the tip of his nose. PSA has to consider this as part of the card and all PSA 10 versions have it. You also can't care about centering as much. If you want a perfect Ozzie Smith rookie, good luck... Even the PSA 9s have tilts to them. The majority of the cards I want are not even affordable for me in a PSA 9, like the George Brett rookie.

mfw13 · 10-03-2020, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

All that being said, 5% on selected market segments is enough to taint the waters for all of it.

Actually, even 1% in any market segment is enough to taint the waters.

After all, PSA is being paid for their "expertise"....

I would never buy a high-value card in a PSA holder unless I had an ironclad return option and/or could measure the card in person.

10-02-2020, 10:24 AM	#29
MoreToppsPlease Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 8,676	There’s nothing special about a slab. The card in the slab on the other hand... __________________ IRS Tax Tip 2022-57 A hobby is any activity that a person pursues because they enjoy it and with no intention of making a profit. People operate a business with the intention of making a profit.

10-02-2020, 10:43 AM	#36
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 90,091 ThoseBackPages	i want the slab, i buy the slab. "Pop" reports dont mean much. People who sell cards often fail to realize... worry about what people want, not what the pop report says __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

10-02-2020, 09:58 AM	#26
HarryLime Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Spaceball 1 Posts: 4,794	I admit, I look at some of these modern pop reports and just shake my head. But the truth is, we're seeing more and more collectors (re)enter the hobby than ever before and with the hobby boom kids closing in on their peak earning years it's only going to grow more. So I think we're going to have to accept that what we previously associated with "low" and "high" pops is going to have to change. Anyone that's been collecting the '80s cards has had to face that. We used to look at cards with 1,500 pops and just shrug them off ("I can pick one of those up whenever.") and then the demand grew so much that 1,500 didn't come close to satiating demand and prices went through the roof. What if there were only 1,500 US250s or US300s? Can you even imagine what that market would look like? So yes, we need to keep an eye on the pop reports, but we also must be cognizant of the overall growth of the hobby and how that creates a demand that may be able to handle that pop report growth or even supersede it. Arthur

10-02-2020, 01:56 PM	#43
Scottish Punk Member Join Date: May 2013 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 9,741 scottishpunk	That is the trouble with trimming in graded cards. Until actual measurements are put on cards and regraded, it is darn near impossible to decipher how much is trimmed. Or when the trimmers go ahead and admit/turn over their PSA submissions. I agree 5% seems way to high. I am sure 312 is suffering from some selection bias when figuring that. What I mean is that is constantly looking at cards in card segments that are more likely to be trimmed. In that context, 5% seems much more likely. Say, focusing in on popular vintage stars and old sets. I highly doubt the thousands and thousands of ultra modern cards are trimmed. Does that 26 million include pokemon/magic? What is the trimming rate on those? All that being said, 5% on selected market segments is enough to taint the waters for all of it.