The Official 2020 MVP race - NL and AL

[Cigarsmoke23]

Really bummed. Tatis hitting nothing but ground balls all day now. Timing seems off.

Looks like he is swinging now to just make contact vs swinging with confidence.

Hopefully he can put this series behind him and start fresh.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[kyleuk21]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Where are all the WAR supporters for a player that in the first 5 innings has 7 RBI’s in a runaway 12-0 lead. Abreau is doing everything he has to against shoddy pitching. His WAR must have increased by at least 1 in a game that was over before his 2 home runs and 6 RBI’s. How much WAR did some of the previous MVP’s win by?

I want Abreau to jack another 3 run shot to give him 10 RBI’s and 6 runs in a game that anybody who watched knew the ending script well before the abuse took part. Would love to know how this has helped his WAR.

Originally Posted by SaltyCracker

He added .4 war w yesterday’s performance. Who do you think will win?

Probably JD Martinez

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Is it better to be Cruz and not provide any fielding value, or be Abreu and provide negative fielding value?

He is?

[tedwilliamsfan]

Who do I want for MVP? Mook Man and The Fish.

Who will win MVP? I have no clue (as usual).

[Hollywood42]

Per Fangraphs, among qualified 1Bs, Abreu is currently:

Tied for last in defensive runs above average (-5.1)
Second to last in UZR (-2.1)
Last in range above average (-0.8)
Tied for worst with errors (5)
Fourth worst in fielding percentage (.981)

I will give it to him that despite all that he is first in DRS with 6, somehow

I know defensive stats are pretty fickle and was hoping to use outs above average here too, but Savant seems to not have that available for 2020? But FWIW he was 5th worst among 1Bs last year at -3

Originally Posted by rman112

He is?

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Per Fangraphs, among qualified 1Bs, Abreu is currently:

Tied for last in defensive runs above average (-5.1)
Second to last in UZR (-2.1)
Last in range above average (-0.8)
Tied for worst with errors (5)
Fourth worst in fielding percentage (.981)

I will give it to him that despite all that he is first in DRS with 6, somehow

I know defensive stats are pretty fickle and was hoping to use outs above average here too, but Savant seems to not have that available for 2020? But FWIW he was 5th worst among 1Bs last year at -3

Yeah, it all makes no sense.

[gmoney328]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Per Fangraphs, among qualified 1Bs, Abreu is currently:

Tied for last in defensive runs above average (-5.1)
Second to last in UZR (-2.1)
Last in range above average (-0.8)
Tied for worst with errors (5)
Fourth worst in fielding percentage (.981)

I will give it to him that despite all that he is first in DRS with 6, somehow

I know defensive stats are pretty fickle and was hoping to use outs above average here too, but Savant seems to not have that available for 2020? But FWIW he was 5th worst among 1Bs last year at -3

I’ve always been a stats geek when it comes to baseball, but it sure did seem more fun when it was a little less complicated.

[Hollywood42]

I don't expect it to really matter in the grand scheme of things, since even Gold Gloves often don't go to the best defenders, I just think it's funny people are giving a leg up to Abreu over Cruz just because he plays defense, even if he's at the back of the pack in almost every defensive category

Originally Posted by rman112

Yeah, it all makes no sense.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

I don't expect it to really matter in the grand scheme of things, since even Gold Gloves often don't go to the best defenders, I just think it's funny people are giving a leg up to Abreu over Cruz just because he plays defense, even if he's at the back of the pack in almost every defensive category

Unless I'm reading it wrong, FG gives Cruz a HIGHER defensive score than Abreu.. and he hasn't played an inning in the field all day. That's ridiculous to me. No doubt that Cruz has been exceptional either way.

It's still weird that there's only like 2 weeks left.

[rman112]

Is there any analytics related to the positive effect tying his beard has had for Abreu?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by gmoney328

I’ve always been a stats geek when it comes to baseball, but it sure did seem more fun when it was a little less complicated.

1000%. Unfortunately, there's no going back once you know what the most accurate stats are.

AL still looks like it's Bieber to lose with Trout behind. Tatis is far ahead in the NL. Turner would be a threat if he was on a playoff team with that .358 average but I think he's really unlikely if the WARs are close. Just Mookie and Tatis battling it out

[clocsta2323]

Wait, Jose Abreu sucks in the field but has accounted for + 6 runs... and Nelson Cruz hasn't logged an inning but is getting rated defensively? What on Earth is going on.

How bout the Sox really only gave money to one player

[Shadowsonic2004]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Tatis is far ahead in the NL.

Freeman?

Stat Lines right now:

Freeman: .338 10HR 40Runs 43 RBIs
Tatis: .293 15HR 46Runs 40 RBIs

Freeman with the 2nd best OBP too.

[seabass97166]

Freeman Tatis and Mookie will be the 3 Finalists.
Freeman 1
Mookie 2
Tatis 3 is my guess

[Mandy1320]

Originally Posted by Shadowsonic2004

Freeman?

Stat Lines right now:

Freeman: .338 10HR 40Runs 43 RBIs
Tatis: .293 15HR 46Runs 40 RBIs

Freeman with the 2nd best OBP too.

Tatis still having the better season IMO. Plays SS very well and steals bases. Stealing bases isn't that important to me personally but baseball writers like it. (see Altuve in 2017)

[Hollywood42]

I'm not seeing that anywhere, he doesn't have rows in his career fielding table for 2020 since he hasn't played in the field

Originally Posted by rman112

Unless I'm reading it wrong, FG gives Cruz a HIGHER defensive score than Abreu.. and he hasn't played an inning in the field all day. That's ridiculous to me. No doubt that Cruz has been exceptional either way.

I don't think so

And relevance to money?

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

Wait, Jose Abreu sucks in the field but has accounted for + 6 runs... and Nelson Cruz hasn't logged an inning but is getting rated defensively? What on Earth is going on.

How bout the Sox really only gave money to one player

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Is it better to be Cruz and not provide any fielding value, or be Mike Trout and provide negative fielding value?

Fixed and the answer is Cruz. Abreu provides positive fielding value.

[Hollywood42]

Trout's defensive numbers are not good this year. But neither are Abreu's

Originally Posted by rats60

Fixed and the answer is Cruz. Abreu provides positive fielding value.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

I'm not seeing that anywhere, he doesn't have rows in his career fielding table for 2020 since he hasn't played in the field

When I go to their individual player pages, it has -4.8 for Cruz, and -5.2 for Abreu in the defense category. What does that mean?

[Chrisyork33]

Originally Posted by rman112

When I go to their individual player pages, it has -4.8 for Cruz, and -5.2 for Abreu in the defense category. What does that mean?

https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/def/

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Chrisyork33

https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/def/

So am I right or wrong to take away that they're saying Cruz is worth more defensively than Abreu?

[Chrisyork33]

Originally Posted by rman112

So am I right or wrong to take away that they're saying Cruz is worth more defensively than Abreu?

That is correct. That’s why I don’t value defensive stats.

[Hollywood42]

After some poking around, I figured it out. -4.8 is just the weighted constant they assign to DHs as a positional adjustment. Reverse engineering it-

Def = Fielding Runs Above Average + positional adjustment. Per the link, they use UZR as the fielding run above average value. As Cruz has not played in the field, his UZR would be 0, so we can ignore that piece entirely

So Def = positional adjustment. Here's info on the positional adjustment. They use this as a weight to compare across positions, under the generic assumption that shortstops are typically better defensively than 3B who are typically better than 1B, etc.

For DHs over a full season, their positional adjustment is -17.5. But since Cruz has only played in 45 games this year, you have to weigh it- (45/162) x (-17.5) = -4.86

Cruz, or anyone that never plays in the field, is where this Def metric breaks. They have to assign the positional value because a DH *could* play in the field, but if he typically does not, it's generally safe to assume they wouldn't be a good fielder. So Def doesn't really say anything about Cruz at all other than he's a full time DH

Originally Posted by rman112

When I go to their individual player pages, it has -4.8 for Cruz, and -5.2 for Abreu in the defense category. What does that mean?

Not quite, it's saying that Abreu is a worse defender than someone who would typically be a full time DH. You can't read anything about Cruz's value defensively because all his Def value is, is the positional adjustment they use to assign a baseline defensive value to someone who typically DHs. But we can use Abreu's value to compare him cross position since he actually has performance in the field to go off of, instead of only having a positional adjustment

Originally Posted by Chrisyork33

https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/def/

Originally Posted by rman112

So am I right or wrong to take away that they're saying Cruz is worth more defensively than Abreu?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Shadowsonic2004

Freeman?

Stat Lines right now:

Freeman: .338 10HR 40Runs 43 RBIs
Tatis: .293 15HR 46Runs 40 RBIs

Freeman with the 2nd best OBP too.

Has no chance. 1 dimensional first baseman well behind in WAR and HRs vs two players he's trying to catch that are the best players on the two teams with the best records in baseball.

[Hollywood42]

Freeman is one dimensional?

Originally Posted by Chrisyork33

https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/def/