Why are people dumping?

[MRSPORTSCARD]

Originally Posted by messier2

Aside from credit card bills pilling up (is that really the reason?! If so, stop buying cards you can't afford!!!), why are people dumping cards at half or more of what they are getting before?

Don't people realize that this is a shorter off-season and 20-21 season will likely begin in January, 2021 (or around that time)? Why sell low (possibly losing money), when you can hold for a few months and sell for higher when the season-start-hype begins?

Well, keep dumping, it's great for buyers like me! lol

They are dumping because that extra $600 weekly unemployment benefit is gone. Seriously, that extra $600 created bubbles not only in sportscards but other collectibles as well like comic books,coins, and vintage video games.

[bberns]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

The difference here is pretty cut and dry. The underlying stocks that make up the DOW are bought and sold at a high enough volume that you get a true market price at that moment. If there were only 8 sales of that Dame at $3k+ I would venture to guess only 1-2 were paid for and never charged back and the rest are fake transactions in some respect or another.

Exactly

[messier2]

Originally Posted by MRSPORTSCARD

They are dumping because that extra $600 weekly unemployment benefit is gone. Seriously, that extra $600 created bubbles not only in sportscards but other collectibles as well like comic books,coins, and vintage video games.

Darn that $600!!!!

[miscus555]

everyone knew this and everyone should know the gains the big 3 received in 2020 will never go down to what they were.

now you just have to figure out what current players will hold steady and have a fantastic career

[mragentm]

I would throw Stephen Curry in there,

[win1977]

Hello everyone. I hope everybody is safe and healthy.

I've been collecting sports cards for over 35 years. We are in a bubble, a massive bubble. I've been a beneficiary of this insanity but have been selling cards I consider overpriced (PSA 10s etc.) and just holding off on any new purchases.

In my opinion (and it's only an opinion) I think the following are causing the slowdown of the market.

- Economy re-opening and other options to spend money on.
- The coming economic slowdown and potential recession.
- The political messaging professional sports and athletes have taken.
- Herd mentality, it works great on the way up, but really hurts on the way down. We have a saying in the investment world, it's a stairway on the way up, but an elevator ride on the way down. I think they applies to sports cards as well.

Just my 2 cents, but collect what you love and it won't matter where the values go.

If you are speculating in sports cards, I'd recommend you make sure your risk management is proper.

Thanks and stay safe everyone.

[GTguy]

Originally Posted by win1977

Hello everyone. I hope everybody is safe and healthy.

I've been collecting sports cards for over 35 years. We are in a bubble, a massive bubble. I've been a beneficiary of this insanity but have been selling cards I consider overpriced (PSA 10s etc.) and just holding off on any new purchases.

In my opinion (and it's only an opinion) I think the following are causing the slowdown of the market.

- Economy re-opening and other options to spend money on.
- The coming economic slowdown and potential recession.
- The political messaging professional sports and athletes have taken.
- Herd mentality, it works great on the way up, but really hurts on the way down. We have a saying in the investment world, it's a stairway on the way up, but an elevator ride on the way down. I think they applies to sports cards as well.

Just my 2 cents, but collect what you love and it won't matter where the values go.

If you are speculating in sports cards, I'd recommend you make sure your risk management is proper.

Thanks and stay safe everyone.

Interesting points, but I respectfully disagree. This same “downturn” occurs at the same time every year like clockwork.

Buy the dip...

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by win1977

Hello everyone. I hope everybody is safe and healthy.

I've been collecting sports cards for over 35 years. We are in a bubble, a massive bubble. I've been a beneficiary of this insanity but have been selling cards I consider overpriced (PSA 10s etc.) and just holding off on any new purchases.

In my opinion (and it's only an opinion) I think the following are causing the slowdown of the market.

- Economy re-opening and other options to spend money on.
- The coming economic slowdown and potential recession.
- The political messaging professional sports and athletes have taken.
- Herd mentality, it works great on the way up, but really hurts on the way down. We have a saying in the investment world, it's a stairway on the way up, but an elevator ride on the way down. I think they applies to sports cards as well.

Just my 2 cents, but collect what you love and it won't matter where the values go.

If you are speculating in sports cards, I'd recommend you make sure your risk management is proper.

Thanks and stay safe everyone.

Originally Posted by GTguy

Interesting points, but I respectfully disagree. This same “downturn” occurs at the same time every year like clockwork.

Buy the dip...

This...


It's going to be a bigger fall this year because prices got so much higher, but each year after guys get knocked out of the playoffs, their stuff falls. Much of it will rebound and some point.

Meanwhile, high end just keeps going higher. Either people are wising up, or the smart money is finished dumping all their mass produced stuff and putting it into cards that they can stash away and not worry about having the market flood. I know that's what I've been doing. While the Ben Simmons, Luka Doncic, and Damian Lillard cards I sold 2 months ago are cratering , the Football stuff I bought with that money is seeing massive returns, and IMO is just getting started.

It's a cycle guys. Figure it out so you don't get caught paying $3k for a Lillard base rookie.

[win1977]

Originally Posted by GTguy

Interesting points, but I respectfully disagree. This same “downturn” occurs at the same time every year like clockwork.

Buy the dip...

Thanks for the reply, that is what makes a market.

Only thing is this last run up was not normal... thus will the "correction" be the same ?

Thanks and stay safe.

[jrb]

Speculators want to buy cards that are going to go up now or in the next few weeks, not those that will go up several months from now. They don't want to hold and wait for next season when they can use that money to buy something else that will appreciate more quickly. Look at the price graphs put out on social media. Most of the "long term" graphs they show go back 3-6 months.

[win1977]

Originally Posted by jrb

Speculators want to buy cards that are going to go up now or in the next few weeks, not those that will go up several months from now. They don't want to hold and wait for next season when they can use that money to buy something else that will appreciate more quickly. Look at the price graphs put out on social media. Most of the "long term" graphs they show go back 3-6 months.

Yup, and from a technical analysis perspective... it needs to "fill the gap".

Stay safe.

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by jrb

Speculators want to buy cards that are going to go up now or in the next few weeks, not those that will go up several months from now. They don't want to hold and wait for next season when they can use that money to buy something else that will appreciate more quickly. Look at the price graphs put out on social media. Most of the "long term" graphs they show go back 3-6 months.

Prizm Base, and similarly common cards are nice for speculating, but a highly volatile market.
Some new entrants will learn the hard way that the hobby is much more complex than just hoarding base psa 10s.

I would've thought recent sales of Lebrons Exquisite RPAs & Trouts 2009 Chrome rare parallels showed this quite plainly, but perhaps not.

~Flippers will continue to fight each other for week-to-week dollars.
~Smart collectors will continue to move to more rare cards.

Check Damian Lillards 2012 Immaculate RPA price graph over the past 12+ months. Not huge swings. The card is probably slightly up due to overall market growth.

That's logical for a middle-career player who didn't accomplish much this season.

Anyone who has collected cards for more than 10 minutes understands this.
I can't wait for a similar thread to pop up next week.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

Prizm Base, and similarly common cards are nice for speculating, but a highly volatile market.
Some new entrants will learn the hard way that the hobby is much more complex than just hoarding base psa 10s.

I would've thought recent sales of Lebrons Exquisite RPAs & Trouts 2009 Chrome rare parallels showed this quite plainly, but perhaps not.

~Flippers will continue to fight each other for week-to-week dollars.
~Smart collectors will continue to move to more rare cards.

Check Damian Lillards 2012 Immaculate RPA price graph over the past 12+ months. Not huge swings. The card is probably slightly up due to overall market growth.

That's logical for a middle-career player who didn't accomplish much this season.

Anyone who has collected cards for more than 10 minutes understands this.
I can't wait for a similar thread to pop up next week.

These 10 minute men are in for a real treat when they realize that a championship doesn’t mean that your card prices instantly double.

If Kawhi/Lebron win another title, those bass Prizms are still dropping.

[cardrcomeback]

Bought a LeBron 2003 Fleer PSA 9 in March for $375. It was up to $900 a month ago. Back down to $500.

[MRSPORTSCARD]

Originally Posted by messier2

Darn that $600!!!!

If we do the math it was like an extra $2400 a month plus the regular unemployment. Some people were clearing close to $4000 a month without working. That`s pretty good,hence the bubbles created in sportscards,Magic the Gathering, Pokemon, comic books, coins and vintage videogames. Now that it is gone it should be interesting how long the bubbles last,especially unemployment at a all-time high,even worse than the Great Depression.

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

These 10 minute men are in for a real treat when they realize that a championship doesn’t mean that your card prices instantly double.

If Kawhi/Lebron win another title, those bass Prizms are still dropping.

I just spit water on the laptop

I honestly don't think high end is in any type of bubble, so I'll just leave it at this:

"Few people realize that there are over 1,000 fish species swimming in North America's fresh water. According to angler surveys, largemouth and smallmouth bass are America's most popular fish."

Demand for Bass prizm specifically has somehow gone up 10-15x over the course of 2020 despite high supply, while many rarer cards of the same players have increased 1.5-3x.

Seems fishy.

[MRSPORTSCARD]

Originally Posted by win1977

Hello everyone. I hope everybody is safe and healthy.

I've been collecting sports cards for over 35 years. We are in a bubble, a massive bubble. I've been a beneficiary of this insanity but have been selling cards I consider overpriced (PSA 10s etc.) and just holding off on any new purchases.

In my opinion (and it's only an opinion) I think the following are causing the slowdown of the market.

- Economy re-opening and other options to spend money on.
- The coming economic slowdown and potential recession.
- The political messaging professional sports and athletes have taken.
- Herd mentality, it works great on the way up, but really hurts on the way down. We have a saying in the investment world, it's a stairway on the way up, but an elevator ride on the way down. I think they applies to sports cards as well.

Just my 2 cents, but collect what you love and it won't matter where the values go.

If you are speculating in sports cards, I'd recommend you make sure your risk management is proper.

Thanks and stay safe everyone.

Good post.

[jzx1103]

Honestly not everything is dropping in price, only stuff that are obvious targets by flippers in the past few months like modern Prizms, Zions, Lukas etc.... For example I been trying to grab a Yao Ming Topps Chrome Chinese refractor RC for my PC and still keep on getting outbid. I'm willing to pay more than what the card was going for 2 to 3 months ago. Same goes for many Kobe Rc and 90s inserts thats not Topps. I tried to win a raw Kobe Skybox Premium Players insert last night and had max bid of over $400 (more than previous sales from last month) card ended at $750. Another example, a Kobe blue E-xceptional insert just went for $1913. Last one went for $1100 in July, and I bought a BGS 9 in July for $900 as well about a week before that. So yea this is definitely not the overall sports card market taking a dive. Just cards thats been pumped in the last 2 months. The rise in many football cards now also clearly show theres no bubble bursting is sports card market overall. Just money shifting while Zion, Luka, and Ja goes into the offseason. So yea I gotta disagree with the above post.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

I just spit water on the laptop

I honestly don't think high end is in any type of bubble, so I'll just leave it at this:

"Few people realize that there are over 1,000 fish species swimming in North America's fresh water. According to angler surveys, largemouth and smallmouth bass are America's most popular fish."

Demand for Bass prizm specifically has somehow gone up 10-15x over the course of 2020 despite high supply, while many rarer cards of the same players have increased 1.5-3x.

Seems fishy.

I see what you did there




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[win1977]

Originally Posted by jzx1103

Honestly not everything is dropping in price, only stuff that are obvious targets by flippers in the past few months like modern Prizms, Zions, Lukas etc.... For example I been trying to grab a Yao Ming Topps Chrome Chinese refractor RC for my PC and still keep on getting outbid. I'm willing to pay more than what the card was going for 2 to 3 months ago. Same goes for many Kobe Rc and 90s inserts thats not Topps. I tried to win a raw Kobe Skybox Premium Players insert last night and had max bid of over $400 (more than previous sales from last month) card ended at $750. Another example, a Kobe blue E-xceptional insert just went for $1913. Last one went for $1100 in July, and I bought a BGS 9 in July for $900 as well about a week before that. So yea this is definitely not the overall sports card market taking a dive. Just cards thats been pumped in the last 2 months. The rise in many football cards now also clearly show theres no bubble bursting is sports card market overall. Just money shifting while Zion, Luka, and Ja goes into the offseason. So yea I gotta disagree with the above post.

Hello there, there is alot of shilling of auctions that has infected the basketball card market. PWCC etc. are notorious for shilling their auctions never mind all the altering they have done to cards in "clean" graded holders.

I've read alot of responses to "rare" cards... really does a PSA 10 vs. a PSA 9 of a card really rare ? To me it's the same card really.

As a collector, it doesn't make a difference to me.

Don't kid yourself, if tax policies change, companies start to downsize due to a slowing economy, recession or depression. These card prices will be absolutely demolished.

It was a brutal card market after the crash in the 90s, lasted for years ... don't kid yourself and think that couldn't happen again.

All I'm saying is make sure your risk level is controlled and buy what you love.

[bloodwings19]

Every off-season is the same except this year it drops off a lot because it went up so high because of the bubble. I have some pretty high-end cards, cards you don't see on eBay, I've gotten more views recently on those. And I still get offers and over 1500 views for a Prizm 10 base rookie card. It is a pretty rare card considering the population from 9s and 10s, more 9s than 10s in the pop. My advice is buy the rare cards at bottom and sell those over populated eBay cards unless it is key cards of rookie cards of Lebron, Kobe.... if someone is stupid enough to sell their Giannis Prizm rookie card at 1/2 price, I'm in.

[jzx1103]

Originally Posted by win1977

Hello there, there is alot of shilling of auctions that has infected the basketball card market. PWCC etc. are notorious for shilling their auctions never mind all the altering they have done to cards in "clean" graded holders.

I've read alot of responses to "rare" cards... really does a PSA 10 vs. a PSA 9 of a card really rare ? To me it's the same card really.

As a collector, it doesn't make a difference to me.

Don't kid yourself, if tax policies change, companies start to downsize due to a slowing economy, recession or depression. These card prices will be absolutely demolished.

It was a brutal card market after the crash in the 90s, lasted for years ... don't kid yourself and think that couldn't happen again.

All I'm saying is make sure your risk level is controlled and buy what you love.

Well non of the cards I'm talking about are being sold by PWCC, Probstein or any other consignment auction sellers. Only by private sellers. If anything the same pump and dump cards being sold by PWCC or Probstein are also seeing the same drops currently. I'm also selling certain stuff myself and I can tell you cards that are not pump and dump targets by flippers are still going stronger and stronger. I have yet to run into non payment issues nor return request issues. And it's not just sports cards. But I also sell Funko Pops, video game collectibles and statues etc....all are going strong. As long as you don't fall into the pump and dump trap of certain cards. There's no sign of a bubble bursting.

[win1977]

Originally Posted by jzx1103

Well non of the cards I'm talking about are being sold by PWCC, Probstein or any other consignment auction sellers. Only by private sellers. If anything the same pump and dump cards being sold by PWCC or Probstein are also seeing the same drops currently. I'm also selling certain stuff myself and I can tell you cards that are not pump and dump targets by flippers are still going stronger and stronger. I have yet to run into non payment issues nor return request issues. And it's not just sports cards. But I also sell Funko Pops, video game collectibles and statues etc....all are going strong. As long as you don't fall into the pump and dump trap of certain cards. There's no sign of a bubble bursting.

I'm glad you are doing so well, I have had non-payers recently on some auctions I've listed. I hate to tell you this but we are in a bubble economy, whether it's sports cards, comics, stocks, bonds, funko pops or any other asset.. it's all a bubble.

I'm just stating to control your risk is all.

[RadicalAlmond]

If I didn't already max out all my moms credit cards I would be buying right now

[jzx1103]

Originally Posted by win1977

I'm glad you are doing so well, I have had non-payers recently on some auctions I've listed. I hate to tell you this but we are in a bubble economy, whether it's sports cards, comics, stocks, bonds, funko pops or any other asset.. it's all a bubble.

I'm just stating to control your risk is all.

Sure what you say could happen. I mean the reality is an economy bubble can happen at any time. My point is the current dip we see on some basketball cards has nothing to do with an overall sports cards bubble popping. Its pretty clearly your typical offseason dump of certain cards of certain players because they're no longer good flips in the next few months.