First Buzz: 2020 Topps Chrome baseball cards

[boston12]

Originally Posted by pewe

Oh! That is more than years past - interesting!


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It’s always been 2. Well at least for the last 10 years.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by boston12

It’s always been 2. Well at least for the last 10 years.

So it seems!


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[djolley86]

none today

[Archangel1775]

$50 - auto's average

Haven't seen that since the set existed.

[wilsonsingles]

Read posts, $50 per box average. Try not to misquote..

[kyle121592]

Originally Posted by pewe

Let’s do the math on the ones you have above... at a per box basis there is a 45% chance of getting each one. So EV of that group is about $40

Then the autographs are 90% <$5, and 10% $50 average... so worth let’s say $10 EV

If you can build sets and flip for $40, let’s say that adds another $15/box

The hit rate of everything else is so amazingly low that the added EV is <$5

That math is generous as it doesn’t include your time or the eBay fees or etc in it

But says break even EV is $70


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Like 99.999% of people joining group breaks (which drive product pricing) don’t care about the math

[timber63401]

Anyone that buys hobby boxes of this will get exactly what they deserve. Way,way too many boxes will have 2 $5 dollar autos in them.

[bulljh]

Originally Posted by Cardsfan84

These types of comments don't make sense. Just because you did an equivalent value of a 2018 box doesn't mean someone else would value it the same way. Hobby boxes are $72 from the distributor. How do you suppose someone pays less than $60 for a box these days? I bet if you returned to your 2018 box value it would be adjusted significantly when you factor in PSA grades to Acuna, Ohtani, Albies, Buehler, Verdugo, Devers, and several others that have jumped in price. I think a lot of people are underestimating the prices for Robert, Alvarez, Bichette, May, Lux, Luzardo, Hoerner, etc. PSA 10s are going to sell for the same as flagship PSA 10s even though they are much easier to gem. This will allow a decent recoup of funds though it will take time to do. I could see the six I mentioned avergaing $60 for PSA 10s. While you won't make money on every box, it won't be the bloodbath everyone thinks it is. If you hit a decent rookie auto or color, which I know will be long shots, then you make money. This hobby/business is crazy right now.

With the 6 names you mentioned average $60 in PSA 10s, you are still down because it’s going to cost roughly $150 to get them graded. So you spend $450 on a box and PSA with $360 (average of the 6 PSA 10s) to show for it. Throwing in the scrub autos and the refractor, the well majority of the boxes are still a loss.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by bulljh

With the 6 names you mentioned average $60 in PSA 10s, you are still down because it’s going to cost roughly $150 to get them graded. So you spend $450 on a box and PSA with $360 (average of the 6 PSA 10s) to show for it. Throwing in the scrub autos and the refractor, the well majority of the boxes are still a loss.

I agree for the most part, except Robert is minimum $150 psa 10. At least the first wave. And assuming he keeps hitting

[glassofwater]

I had fun with this last year. I didn’t think it was difficult to get autos In retail. It was difficult to get something goo. Maybe I was lucky I pulled this from a cello pack. I wish I kept it.




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[3of5-2]

Just a small sampling from this year's retail.
2 hanger packs-0 autos
20 cellos-0 autos
7 blasters-3 autos

[Cardsfan84]

Originally Posted by bulljh

With the 6 names you mentioned average $60 in PSA 10s, you are still down because it’s going to cost roughly $150 to get them graded. So you spend $450 on a box and PSA with $360 (average of the 6 PSA 10s) to show for it. Throwing in the scrub autos and the refractor, the well majority of the boxes are still a loss.

You just don't like facts do you. 6 cards in a PSA bulk sub would be $12/card. I'm not submitting them by themselves and have 100+ always ready for when popular releases come out. Like I said it would be a long time to recoup the money, but your numbers are flat out wrong and you spout them like fact. $72 plus shipping and insurance is max $75 for the 6 cards I mentioned. so $250 on a box plus $75 for grading if they all grade gem and I'm not saying they would, is $325 invested. The likely sell point for several of the cards is $80-100 for a 10 as well. I just used $60 as an average to be generous. So the $360 avg sale price - $325 invested is about a wash. and that doesn't even count parallels and shots at an auto. This is why wax prices are where they are. You can discount all this if you want, but the fact of the matter is that it's here to stay. It's why retail is a no brainer if you can get a decent quantity.

[TraderJake]

this seems like retail or bust. Are the variations in retail configurations as well?

[nera20]

Originally Posted by TraderJake

this seems like retail or bust. Are the variations in retail configurations as well?

yes they are and there are refractor parallels

[jjo1776]

Lots of flippers listing sealed retail on eBay already. Gunna be hard to find any this year.

[djolley86]

Originally Posted by jjo1776

Lots of flippers listing sealed retail on eBay already. Gunna be hard to find any this year.

I'm assuming none of the retail for sale actually ever hit the shelves, either. Outside of one or two reports on Blowout, nobody else has found this stuff yet. I won't even be wasting the time this year to look-- there is never anything on my local shelves.

[jjo1776]

Originally Posted by djolley86

I'm assuming none of the retail for sale actually ever hit the shelves, either. Outside of one or two reports on Blowout, nobody else has found this stuff yet. I won't even be wasting the time this year to look-- there is never anything on my local shelves.

Wait till flippers are listing at the prices they bought it at because eBay will be flooded once it’s out there.


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[LVDan]

Originally Posted by jjo1776

Wait till flippers are listing at the prices they bought it at because eBay will be flooded once it’s out there.


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Thereby saving everyone the gas $ and frustration of driving around looking.
Win/win- collectors get chrome at SRP
Flippers get squat and skip the next release
Doubtful but maybe

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[ctal]

As much as I like the chrome product at these prices I just don’t see a point in buying any wax. And I refuse to pay eBay comps on any retail products. Id rather buy some junk wax product to crack if “I need “ to open packs.

[djolley86]

I have no doubt that this stuff will flood eBay over the next few days. Chrome was always my favorite release, as I used to buy multiple cases a year for around $700-750 each. Insane to think that I couldn't even buy three hobby boxes at that rate these days!

I'm also super interested to see what everyone's LCS's will be pricing hobby and jumbo at. I'll report back with my local quotes once they are in tomorrow.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by wilsonsingles

Have you even looked at eBay sales yet?
Robert has sold for $45 min. and some at $60
Sets are $150
Average Auto of the top guys will not be $50.
Robert will be $400, Bichette/Alvarez/Lux/Shogo/Lewis/Aquino will be $75-$100+
there are another 2-3 Hoerner/Grisham + that will be $40-50
and around 5-8 that will be $20 per Puk/May/McKay/
and these are for base Autos..
there will be many insert Autos that will be $50+
Factor in at least 2x for color.

an easy average of $50 per box ($25 per auto), $600 per hobby case/$1,000 per Jumbo case

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Haven't seen that since the set existed.

Originally Posted by wilsonsingles

Read posts, $50 per box average. Try not to misquote..

I haven't seen that since the set existed.

I get it though, this is a stacked class, it really is. BUUTttttt it almost seems like the idea is that the price of singles is going to be higher than normal because box prices are higher than normal. I've never seen that before either.

[HRoark]

Originally Posted by djolley86

I'm assuming none of the retail for sale actually ever hit the shelves, either. Outside of one or two reports on Blowout, nobody else has found this stuff yet. I won't even be wasting the time this year to look-- there is never anything on my local shelves.

I just don't see how this can continue long term. Big companies like Target, Walmart, even Topps typically don't sit by while someone else makes 2-3x on something when they could easily get it.

[SaltyCracker]

Originally Posted by djolley86

I have no doubt that this stuff will flood eBay over the next few days. Chrome was always my favorite release, as I used to buy multiple cases a year for around $700-750 each. Insane to think that I couldn't even buy three hobby boxes at that rate these days!

I'm also super interested to see what everyone's LCS's will be pricing hobby and jumbo at. I'll report back with my local quotes once they are in tomorrow.

My LCS quoted $200 for hobby. Easy pass

[chuckerrrr]

Mine was $275


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[chuckerrrr]

Anybody finding any retail out there today? I went to a few Of both Target and Walmart. Nothin


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