Changing my “investment” strategy opinions welcome!

[KhalDrogo]

I wouldn’t buy baseball. Too many risks for players and the league as a whole.

Basketball is so, so easy. Global sport with a huge and rabid fan base. Not too difficult to pick out who is going to be a winner. And over the past few months, you’ve seen that guys can explode with absolutely no hobby following previously. Just incredible how much money has poured into basketball.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Luka isn’t close to his ceiling

That’s all I’ll add

You really think? I can see that, his Prizm base PSA 10 is around $1000. If he even becomes half what people think he will then yes, they will go up. I can see a little bit of a bump, but at that price it is hard for me to buy even one let alone a stockpile.

Originally Posted by Zauron

If you want to talk about investments, you are in this to make money. Yordan hasn't played yet this year, and is still about a week or two away from making his debut. In only 87 games played last year he ran away with the ROY and put up 3.7 WAR as a DH. His splits were insane. I think 100% he is going to dominate as a hitter. The knock on him would be his age at this point, and his knees.

His rookies are raw maybe $5. Rainbow foil is $30-$40, Gold's around $60-$80 I believe. For $200, you could get a rainbow foil, a gold, and 15 base rookies. I consider that a solid investment.



This is horrible advice. For one, look at Acuna. In March, his 2017 Bowman Chrome base PSA 10 was $100. It is now $300. If you bought 10 in March and sold them now, you're up $2,000. Is it something you should throw your savings into? Not exactly, but it could help procure investments over time.

Also, say you get a PSA 9 Mike Trout Update. That is $1,200 in the hole right now.

For that same price investment of $1,200, you could get a huge array of Arraez cards. Let's say it's strictly base cards you buy for sake of simplicity. 240 base cards.

In 2 years, that Trout probably is $3,000 let's say. If Arraez continues to develop into a MVP candidate, those $5 a piece rookies are now $30. If you sell 100 of your cards at this price point, that is $3,000. Same amount of Trout, but you still have 140 rookies. However, this is easier said than done because Arraez might just be a really good player and his rookie is maybe $10.





This is what concerns me with Robert. I think he's a great hitter, but he is striking out 1 every 4 plate appearances right now, and doesn't walk at all.

Great advice on all points. Your point on Arraez was my exact thinking, except I was thinking it would only be a $10 card, and I double up. Thanks for a very well written post.

[Skeely]

Your example on Aquino is a great example. You’ve been buying him what, about 1 month and everyone laughed at you. Then you sell for a 50% profit in a month. Seems like a great investment.

The biggest thing I think is knowing to sell when there is a decent profit to be made, don’t worry about what it will be tomorrow, make a profit today and move on. More like day trading instead of long term trading.[/QUOTE]


It also helps that i was picking base rookies up for 1.25 to 1.50 on here compared to 2.00 on ebay in lots. And i agree cards doesnt have to be a long term investment unless its pc. My david ortiz pc will stay in my possession til the day i die but if im buying someone why skip on that profit when you could take it and get into the next guy you think is going to be good.

I got to be honest everybody says kyle lewis is overpriced or on a bubble. However bubble or not if you were to buy today and the season got cancelled tommorow your in the money. We have seen what speculation has done over the last few months with no season. can you imagine what his cards are going to jump too due to speculation a month before next season. Buy at the right price sell at the right time. Look its not an exact science and the people that bought acuna cheap or trout cheap are going to be in the red overall for a long time. But I am content funding the hobby for myself based on the austin meadows of the worlds. Ill let other people chase the next trout well i get to buy what i want for my pc because i made smart decision based on the market and facts and other peoples speculation instead of mine.

[LVDan]

The only thing I have to add is your “buy” price is almost always the most important factor in card investing. Once your target price is surpassed it’s important to move away to the next opportunity. Likewise when your cards reach a price you were hoping for it’s absolutely necessary to sell at least a portion of not all and move on. Chasing a hot streak or failing to sell when significantly profitable are two of the biggest mistakes that I’ve made, continue to make and am constantly learning from. If you have a PC that stuff needs a hard line drawn between the two.
The good news is that in today’s hobby environment there are MANY ways to make $ on cards if you have the time and desire.
People are skinning the cat in several different ways with much success in 2020.
Good luck!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by jsatx

You have mentioned Arraez a few times now. You don't need us to tell you to buy him. I don't know basketball, but you like Kuzma's passion. You like Soto's attitude. Players you are pulling for should be an easy choice.

I only keep mentioning Arraez because he was the cheapest on my list, which makes it easier to use an example. I am just as interested in all the players I listed.

Just because I like their attitude and passion does not make them the best player to buy a bunch of.

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

This is my approach. I rather spend 1k and double or triple it with 1 card.

Isn’t it harder to find a buyer for a $3,000 card than it is to find 30 buyers for a $100 card.

[CoolG]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Maybe saying they are a bad team is a bit drastic. They are playing .500 ball, but they are in the AL Central which is a tough conference now so that puts them in fourth behind the Twins, Tigers and Indians.

As far as bats, I would put Moncada above Abreu. I am not a fan of Anderson, but maybe he would grow on me. Madrigal has a lot to prove to me before I say he is a relevant bat, and Jimenez could be added to the list of bats.

There is a lot of potential there, just not yet sold on them.

......
Anderson has been very very good for 15 months straight
He’s lead the league in hitting since April of last year and was off to another solid start this year.
Watch some games

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by LVDan

The only thing I have to add is your “buy” price is almost always the most important factor in card investing. Once your target price is surpassed it’s important to move away to the next opportunity. Likewise when your cards reach a price you were hoping for it’s absolutely necessary to sell at least a portion of not all and move on. Chasing a hot streak or failing to sell when significantly profitable are two of the biggest mistakes that I’ve made, continue to make and am constantly learning from. If you have a PC that stuff needs a hard line drawn between the two.
The good news is that in today’s hobby environment there are MANY ways to make $ on cards if you have the time and desire.
People are skinning the cat in several different ways with much success in 2020.
Good luck!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This. If your investing in a player for short term than it shouldnt be a pc obviously because you should be able to move it and not be emotionally attached. That being said pc player can always be considered an investment as we all want our cards to be worth more in twenty years than they are now. But i guess what im trying to say is dont get attached to your quick flip guys cause you wont be willing to make the tough decision to sell and you might end up losing money based on the bad decision to hold. But you already know that lol.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I wouldn’t buy baseball. Too many risks for players and the league as a whole.

Basketball is so, so easy. Global sport with a huge and rabid fan base. Not too difficult to pick out who is going to be a winner. And over the past few months, you’ve seen that guys can explode with absolutely no hobby following previously. Just incredible how much money has poured into basketball.

I have been very impressed to the way the NBA has handled the return compared to MLB. Part of that issue was the MLBPA wasn’t going to accept the NBA way of being in a bubble. They showed themselves in a bad light just like Manfred did, and they will pay for it.

Also a little concerned with a looming strike. It would sadden me, but maybe the right answer is to go 100% basketball and vintage baseball.

Originally Posted by LVDan

The only thing I have to add is your “buy” price is almost always the most important factor in card investing. Once your target price is surpassed it’s important to move away to the next opportunity. Likewise when your cards reach a price you were hoping for it’s absolutely necessary to sell at least a portion of not all and move on. Chasing a hot streak or failing to sell when significantly profitable are two of the biggest mistakes that I’ve made, continue to make and am constantly learning from. If you have a PC that stuff needs a hard line drawn between the two.
The good news is that in today’s hobby environment there are MANY ways to make $ on cards if you have the time and desire.
People are skinning the cat in several different ways with much success in 2020.
Good luck!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks for the advice! The buy price is not really something I though about. I more was thinking total buy in on each player, not individual card buy ins. Very valid point.

[Skeely]

Dashcol,

I would put it this way. Go with your gut and what you have seen from guys. I know you have been in and out of the hobby but combined you have been in the card game as long as most and im confident that you making the decision based on your gut compared to what somebody tells you is going to bring you the most success. Plus it will be more fun to root for a guy that you picked based on your own knowledge than what other people say.

If you like the 4 guys you said in the op except nunn than replace nunn with someone else and go with it. clearly from your op you have done some research and have seen these guys play. Stats are big but the eye test is bigger.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by CoolG

......
Anderson has been very very good for 15 months straight
He’s lead the league in hitting since April of last year and was off to another solid start this year.
Watch some games

Your right. I’ve not watched enough White Sox games. Maybe that would change my mind....

[Skelly]

Originally Posted by Zauron

This is horrible advice. For one, look at Acuna. In March, his 2017 Bowman Chrome base PSA 10 was $100. It is now $300. If you bought 10 in March and sold them now, you're up $2,000. Is it something you should throw your savings into? Not exactly, but it could help procure investments over time.

Also, say you get a PSA 9 Mike Trout Update. That is $1,200 in the hole right now.

For that same price investment of $1,200, you could get a huge array of Arraez cards. Let's say it's strictly base cards you buy for sake of simplicity. 240 base cards.

In 2 years, that Trout probably is $3,000 let's say. If Arraez continues to develop into a MVP candidate, those $5 a piece rookies are now $30. If you sell 100 of your cards at this price point, that is $3,000. Same amount of Trout, but you still have 140 rookies. However, this is easier said than done because Arraez might just be a really good player and his rookie is maybe $10.

I'm going to push back against this a little bit. I never said you can't make money investing in sports cards. All I meant was that if making money is the sole motive, there are dozens of better ways to do it. Strictly in terms of return, the stock market is unmatched. If you want to have some enjoyment along the way, I'm with you 100% that having some cash in baseball cards is a great way to do it, but I think you should buy for enjoyment rather than investment.

My comment on established players comes from personal experience. Arraez may turn into an MVP, in which case you are correct about the return. I've seen enough top prospects turn into everyday players with little to no hobby value (Todd Van Poppel anybody?). Becoming a viable, lasting, star is incredibly rare. I don't know enough about Arraez to know which way he'll go, but I know Mike Trout isn't going to $0. Arraez could. I'll take that margin of safety that I'm not going to lose everything, even if it means I'm late to the game on a rising star.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Skeely

This. If your investing in a player for short term than it shouldnt be a pc obviously because you should be able to move it and not be emotionally attached. That being said pc player can always be considered an investment as we all want our cards to be worth more in twenty years than they are now. But i guess what im trying to say is dont get attached to your quick flip guys cause you wont be willing to make the tough decision to sell and you might end up losing money based on the bad decision to hold. But you already know that lol.

The only thing I am going to PC is PSA graded RCs, and only one of every player so not an issue in gettin attached to my investment.

Great advice though!

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Isn’t it harder to find a buyer for a $3,000 card than it is to find 30 buyers for a $100 card.

In theory, yes. But when dealing with hot cards, not at all.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I agree 100% - the problem become that vintage cards aren’t trustworthy anymore.

I’m very concerned about trimming now with vintage.

[HRBELLI2017]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I’m very concerned about trimming now with vintage.

Most cant afford graded 9 and 10 vintage RC's of hall of famers so worrying about trimmed cards does not apply unless your used to dropping the price of a car for a card or more.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by HRBELLI2017

Most cant afford graded 9 and 10 vintage RC's of hall of famers so worrying about trimmed cards does not apply unless your used to dropping the price of a car for a card or more.

Are you under them impression that people are only trimming cards they can turn into 9s and 10s. Do you know the difference between a hank aaron rookie psa 4 and say a 6? Or even of cheaper cards. What about the diffrence between a 1960 mantle psa 5 and a 7?

[Glebe]

Where's Bam Adebayo on your list, he's a consistent jumper away from being Kawhi Leonard

[EldoEsq]

Lol...your speculating or gambling, not investing.

Buy low sell high. Which of these guys are you buying low on? If you truly think that there is any value at this point, THAT is your purchase.

Kyle Lewis? Seriously? 25yo with what...100 AB's? Flirting with .400...You need to stop looking at social media and do some real research...that's where you will find a guy to buy low on. With no minors, this is not the year to do it.

Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Sandy Koufax...that's investing. You are speculating on future performance of guys that can screw up A LOT in the future.

Honestly, good luck...but once there is a thread made about a guy...you are usually too late.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by EldoEsq

...but once there is a thread made about a guy...you are usually too late.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Exactly.

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

What investment isn’t volatile? This is at least more fun than the stock market. Probably less riskier too.

Spoken like someone who has been in the market for around a year, cards only go up!

[Badgers0821]

At some point relatively soon this card bubble is going to burst, cards aren't going to continue to grow in perpetuity. Just wait until that happens to buy what you want/invest. Everyone buying right now for the most part is buying high, which is the opposite of what you want to do from an investment standpoint. The problem most “investors” have in any market is the lack of patience.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by EldoEsq

Lol...your speculating or gambling, not investing.

Buy low sell high. Which of these guys are you buying low on? If you truly think that there is any value at this point, THAT is your purchase.

Kyle Lewis? Seriously? 25yo with what...100 AB's? Flirting with .400...You need to stop looking at social media and do some real research...that's where you will find a guy to buy low on. With no minors, this is not the year to do it.

Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Sandy Koufax...that's investing. You are speculating on future performance of guys that can screw up A LOT in the future.

Honestly, good luck...but once there is a thread made about a guy...you are usually too late.

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Has there ever been a post about buying a player that hasn't had some sort of comment about hows its speculating not investing. Come on. And of course you are basing your decision on the future performance. If you want to be extremely safe then of course you should buy mickey mantle. You have added nothing to this thread other than what at least one person has said in these type of threads in the history of these forums. how about contributing something to a thread instead of picking apart wording that other people are using.

As far as the whole once a thread has been posted youre too late thing. Was there not a trout thread when he was selling for 10 per or an acuna thread when he was at 5. For god sakes there is a trent grisham thread on here right now and his golds are selling for like 20 bucks. Is a thread being started real what we are basing our decision off?

[ronzo]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

In theory, yes. But when dealing with hot cards, not at all.

I think that's something a lot of newer players in this game haven't ran into. Acuna, Judge, etc aren't the norm. Most of the time you have to unload during a hot streak for players, and moving 100s of base cards isn't all that easy.

I'm just waiting for one of these top 'investment' players to absolutely bust out and see how many people flock from the hobby when they realize it isn't guaranteed money.

[jduds]

I'll throw my 2 cents in since as a fun exercise with everyone's normal advice of don't or collect just for fun. Also this should read as light-hearted advice and not strict solemn wisdom. Tone is hard to judge online sometimes.
Set a price per card and be willing to walk away if the price offered is even slightly higher.
Value your time and sanity. It takes time to move the amount of cards you are talking about don't discount your time too much. This should be fun. don't turn it into a job unless you are making enough to make it worth it. Be honest and complete with yourself about what you are spending. Don't omit supplies, fees, and shipping from those calculations.
Basketball is crazy and everything seems to be going up. I'd say stick with the bigger names(Doncic, Morant, Zion), but maybe that thinking is outdated. I've been picking up some lower names(Hachimura, Younger Warriors, there are a lot in this category) with the thought that they only need a little bit of on court success to jump for a bit). I think there is still some good room in raw Doncic cards, but that window is closing as they are getting snapped up for grading.
Also with the volume you are talking about consider if you are somewhat judicious and good at weeding out bad copies so you can grade cards later if the player starts to heat up or it makes sense to do so. More cost later down the road, but potentially worth it if you can pick out 10s.

[Tanaka]

I've never bought on hype. Instead, researched prospects and bought in on players with high ceilings and high potential to make the top100 list. Then sell right before the debut. Kinda risky, but much less of a gamble than sinking thousands into todays hyped player.