Changing my “investment” strategy opinions welcome!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Yeah, everyone is talking me out of Kyle Lewis. I am thinking I just got caught up in the hype over him and looking at him as an all around player makes him less attractive.

I like Lewis a lot, I just think the time to speculate on him was in the beginning of the season when no one was talking about him. I picked up his 1st Bowman auto refractor PSA 10 for $150. Buying once the hype train has started is never a great idea unless player has obvious growth potential (like Acuña or Robert).

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Save your money and don't do any of these things.

This.

These days, only investors want more investors in the hobby because they’re predictable and only make cards cost more.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by dashcol

I do have some and am probably keeping them. I like rookies, and want them graded. Graded vintage rookies are way outside of what I can pay right now. I do have a couple Mantles sitting around though.

if i had a choice of dropping $1K on a current prospect or on a vintage rookie, i'm going vintage all the way.

give me a 54 Hank Aaron Rookie or over any Soto/Acuna rookie.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

This.

These days, only investors want more investors in the hobby because they’re predictable and only make cards cost more.

Honestly... not a bad answer, too


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[gamboooler]

Yeah, I'd consider Trout, Luka, Acuna, Soto, Bellinger, and Trae to be the safest bets, but what do I know. Maybe Gleyber. Nothing wrong with stockpiling <$5 cards that become $10+ cards. Everyone is currently trying to find the next big thing, I'd just go with the established young talent. You're paying a hype premium on everything else.

If you want to get a little riskier, Daniel Jones is in a great spot. His OL should significantly improve, he has good skill players around him, good offensive system, defense will be bad so they'll be chasing, he'll put up some good fantasy numbers, and he plays in NY. His cards aren't ridiculous yet, relatively speaking.

[Vinny1984]

It’s much easier turning a $5 card into a $10 card. Much harder doing the same with a $30 card.

[free2131]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

It’s much easier turning a $5 card into a $10 card. Much harder doing the same with a $30 card.

Come on now! Many times I've turned a $30 card into a $10 card!

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by free2131

Come on now! Many times I've turned a $30 card into a $10 card!

That’s chapter 3 of my book and it’s the longest one.

[SleepyWill]

If you’re truly looking for the long term ROI, basketball is your best bet.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

If you’re truly looking for the long term ROI, basketball is your best bet.

I mean, he says Zion is risky, but if he blows up next season that Prizm rookie is going to be MOOOOOONEy

[SleepyWill]

Originally Posted by Zauron

I mean, he says Zion is risky, but if he blows up next season that Prizm rookie is going to be MOOOOOONEy

Not just talking Zion, there’s a lot of young talent that have affordable raw cards to be had. Issue is that Prizm is notorious for being hard to grade gem. Baseball just doesn’t have the global market that basketball has now and moving forward.

I’ve been flipping almost all my Vlads ( saving a few BC ) for certain RCs.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by free2131

If you're "investing" in hopes to make money, buying what is popular now is probably the last thing you should do. You need to find the "next" Acuna, Soto, Luca, etc. You have to miss a TON to hit on guys like those mentioned. The problem is, with all the "investor-bros" infesting the hobby, those guys who might have flown over the radar are now selling for way more than they are worth and won't ever sustain the prices they are demanding. Before you could miss on 6 out of every 7 guys you "prospected" and still end up very much in the black, but now if you miss 2 or 3, you'll never make your money back, let alone make a profit.

If you're main goal is to buy cards that will appreciate and are in it for the long haul, vintage and established HOF and sure fire HOF superstars (not the Jim Rice level HOFers) are what you need to buy. High grade Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Griffey, Trout, etc.

Sage advice. I’m not hoping to find the next Acuna or Luka, but that would be awesome to do. I am more looking for the guy who is going to get a small bump to be able to unload later.

I tried doing the HOF guys and it just did not capture my imagination. I tried it with Griffey and it just didn’t do it for me. I was a fan of his growing up, but not an over the top fan. I was more of a Kirby Puckett fan, and I don’t think there is any investing in Puckett.

I need someone who excites me and that means they need to be playing now.

Originally Posted by NewEra760

Don’t listen to everyone saying don’t waste your time. You can’t look at it like making $2, if that $2 dollars is 70% margin. The way you’re talking about buying 100 of each player only amplifies that which is good. Basketball rookies are tough, they are all priced so high, while some may still go up, most of these guys are at their all time peak right now. Just go through every Draft class for the last 20 years, very rarely more then 2 guys become superstars, and superstars sell, role players do not.

Luis Robert is the most obvious path to Acuna/Soto type numbers. I like Arraez myself, but Twins market and not much power, probably puts him at Jeff McNeil type prices best case right now.

Thank you for pointing out the margins, that was more what I was looking at. $5 card becomes $10 a lot easier than $50 card becomes $100.

Yeah, no Twins player ever really gets a huge liking outside of the Twin Cities. Every once in a while one of them will get a small bump, and I think Arraez may be something special and get more than a small bump.

Originally Posted by notfast

Selling everything to “invest” in some guys like Arraez and Nunn?

I think you need to reconsider your entire plan.

I was wrong about Nunn. This is why I ask here so that better people can course correct me when I am wildly wrong about a guy.

I still think Arraez can be a good investment.

Originally Posted by tfazzz

Mike trout...

I only want to play with rookies, and a raw Update Trout is an $800 card. Not really investment for me at that price.

Originally Posted by CapeTownCards

Luka, Ja, Ronald and Juan.
For best investment value I’m going with Juan and Luka.
Disclaimer: I am invested in all 4, but if I had to get it over I would’ve invested the Ja and Acuna money in the other two.
Still, I think all 4 will be exciting to watch for a long time.

Wow, really? I am a big Ja fan, and feel he could end up being more exciting to watch than Luka. You are right, both a lot of fun.

Originally Posted by pewe

I’d be most worried about Luis Robert... he’s likely to be a career .250 batter with 25-30% K rate... perhaps saving graces will be decent power and + defense.

Don’t be snowed by current performance... he’s buoyed by a .455 BABIP right now... let’s give him credit for league leading average BABIP in the future, and assume he settles at .350... that suggests mid-.200s BA as an expectation. Perhaps he’ll be even worse.

[i have no opinion on Lewis, so perhaps I should be even more skeptical there... just never explored him as an option]


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Thanks pewe. I really need to learn more about BABIP and how to use it properly. I know enough to be dangerous which is never a good thing. This is really the first I have heard about Robert falling later and especially as low as mid .200’s with a 25-30% K rate.

Originally Posted by Zauron

Nunn is definitely someone I wouldn't invest in. Basically, I would only touch Doncic, Zion, and Morant on his basketball list.

And everybody mocking him for buying $5 rookies to resell, don't forget how little Acuna Update's and Soto Update's cost at the beginning. Buy 100 of Arraez or say 50 Robert's, and they exceed expectations, suddenly the base are going to skyrocket.

That said, I highly question the stability of Robert.

Another guy to really look at is Yordan Alvarez btw, who has flown under the radar now. People forget how beastly he was hitting.

Yeah, Nunn is coming off the list. I sold a few Acuna for $5 or so each so yeah, even the giants have to start somewhere.

I am not a fan of Alvarez. The whole scandal put a sour taste in my mouth, and I won’t even read about the Astros unless it has to do with someone I want to read about. I will not watch them unless they are playing someone I want to watch. So, I really have no idea how he has been doing.

[Skelly]

1. Don't invest in sports cards. Buy them for fun, but don't count on future income/growth, they're too volatile to risk long-term savings.

2. If you're going to invest, buy iconic cards of iconic players. In the long run you'll get more mileage out of a single Mike Trout US175 RC than 100 Luis Arraez.

3. Instead of buying the "next" guy, buy the original. Acuna could be the "next" Willie Mays, but for the price of some of his RC cards, you could buy an actual Willie Mays RC. Acuna could get hurt, flame out, or have a controversy that negatively affects his value (see Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, 2017 Astros, etc.). Willie Mays' numbers are set in stone, and his place in the game isn't going to be threatened by anything.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Thanks pewe. I really need to learn more about BABIP and how to use it properly. I know enough to be dangerous which is never a good thing. This is really the first I have heard about Robert falling later and especially as low as mid .200’s with a 25-30% K rate.

The way to think of it is like this: when a player puts a ball in play, that doesn’t become a HR, then there is some expected rate the defense makes an out.

Certainly some types of hits are more easy outs than others (pop ups, ground balls, fly balls, line drives, flairs in that order).

The best players BABIP generally hit the ball HARD or hit a lot of soft line drives/flairs.

The best of the best players will expect at most about .350 at the end of a season (think Mike Trout), but most players will be .300-.320 before luck kicks in.

So if a player is high or low relative to average you can roughly estimate how lucky or unlucky they were. Certainly you need to know if they are a Trout or not if the are sub .350, but above that you can be pretty confident they are just lucky.

Re: k%... a good rule of thumb is 2x their swinging strike rate. Robert has a 23% swinging strike rate, so his current expected K% is >40%.


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[ALBASKETBALL]

Originally Posted by Skelly

1. Don't invest in sports cards. Buy them for fun, but don't count on future income/growth, they're too volatile to risk long-term savings.

Most investments are volatile. Unless you are putting money into lower risk investments. If you formulate a strategy, invest within your means and put the time and effort into the hobby - there are plenty of opportunities to make money. Even in a bear sports card market.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by free2131

If you're "investing" in hopes to make money, buying what is popular now is probably the last thing you should do. You need to find the "next" Acuna, Soto, Luca, etc. You have to miss a TON to hit on guys like those mentioned. The problem is, with all the "investor-bros" infesting the hobby, those guys who might have flown over the radar are now selling for way more than they are worth and won't ever sustain the prices they are demanding. Before you could miss on 6 out of every 7 guys you "prospected" and still end up very much in the black, but now if you miss 2 or 3, you'll never make your money back, let alone make a profit.

If you're main goal is to buy cards that will appreciate and are in it for the long haul, vintage and established HOF and sure fire HOF superstars (not the Jim Rice level HOFers) are what you need to buy. High grade Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Griffey, Trout, etc.

You don't need to find the next acuna or trout or luca to make money. I don't know why everybody is obsessed with finding the next big thing. What happened to buying a guy at the right time his prices doubling and then getting the hell out. You'll make a lot more money of buying the dip last year on austin meadows at the all star break and then doubling your money in a few months than by buying fifteen different guys that are unproven because you hope or think they might be the next acuna.

Heck sometimes you don't even have to find a player that ends up being that successful. I bought a ton of aquino. Everybody proceeded to laugh at me and i just sold all of it when he got recalled and made around 50 percent on top of my original investment. Buy at a good price and sell at the right time. I am a firm believer that if at anytime you can get a decent return on your investment you take it and move on. If your not attached to a player and he is only an investment and not pc why not cash in wash your hands off him and move on.

As far as kyle lewis goes i think him being on a bubble is a definite possible factor. But at the price of still 4 to 5 for a base i wouldn't bet the house on him but i would be hesitant to not buy at least a few golds or something if i were you.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by oplum29

if i had a choice of dropping $1K on a current prospect or on a vintage rookie, i'm going vintage all the way.

give me a 54 Hank Aaron Rookie or over any Soto/Acuna rookie.

The issue of blowing my load all on one vintage rookie means I have no money left and my collection is done. The Aaron RC would be one of the cards I would be looking to use profits to buy.

It is on my bucket list of cards.

Originally Posted by gamboooler

Yeah, I'd consider Trout, Luka, Acuna, Soto, Bellinger, and Trae to be the safest bets, but what do I know. Maybe Gleyber. Nothing wrong with stockpiling <$5 cards that become $10+ cards. Everyone is currently trying to find the next big thing, I'd just go with the established young talent. You're paying a hype premium on everything else.

If you want to get a little riskier, Daniel Jones is in a great spot. His OL should significantly improve, he has good skill players around him, good offensive system, defense will be bad so they'll be chasing, he'll put up some good fantasy numbers, and he plays in NY. His cards aren't ridiculous yet, relatively speaking.

Trae was on my short list, a lot cheaper than Luka, same rookie class, huge potential to stay in the line light, and maybe some rings in his future. I should have had him on my list, maybe I will replace Nunn with Trae.

Daniel Jones was definitely on my radar, but football collecting is just not that exciting to me. Only QBs keep value, and when they do they soar, but because there can only be so many QBs there is a lot of people speculating on all of them. I’m just not a fan of football cards.

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

If you’re truly looking for the long term ROI, basketball is your best bet.

Yeah, I am leaning that way. Look at a LeBron RC compared to a Trout RC. LeBron is 5x the Trout.

Originally Posted by Zauron

I mean, he says Zion is risky, but if he blows up next season that Prizm rookie is going to be MOOOOOONEy

I say Zion is risky because of his build. He is a great player, but has ankle issues already and the injury fairy is always going to be knocking at his door.

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

Not just talking Zion, there’s a lot of young talent that have affordable raw cards to be had. Issue is that Prizm is notorious for being hard to grade gem. Baseball just doesn’t have the global market that basketball has now and moving forward.

I’ve been flipping almost all my Vlads ( saving a few BC ) for certain RCs.

True. If baseball cancels this season or strikes next, then none of the baseball rookies matter anymore.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by Skelly

1. Don't invest in sports cards. Buy them for fun, but don't count on future income/growth, they're too volatile to risk long-term savings.

What investment isn’t volatile? This is at least more fun than the stock market. Probably less riskier too.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by oplum29

if i had a choice of dropping $1K on a current prospect or on a vintage rookie, i'm going vintage all the way.

give me a 54 Hank Aaron Rookie or over any Soto/Acuna rookie.

I agree 100% - the problem become that vintage cards aren’t trustworthy anymore.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Skelly

1. Don't invest in sports cards. Buy them for fun, but don't count on future income/growth, they're too volatile to risk long-term savings.

2. If you're going to invest, buy iconic cards of iconic players. In the long run you'll get more mileage out of a single Mike Trout US175 RC than 100 Luis Arraez.

3. Instead of buying the "next" guy, buy the original. Acuna could be the "next" Willie Mays, but for the price of some of his RC cards, you could buy an actual Willie Mays RC. Acuna could get hurt, flame out, or have a controversy that negatively affects his value (see Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, 2017 Astros, etc.). Willie Mays' numbers are set in stone, and his place in the game isn't going to be threatened by anything.

This isn’t an investment to make me money to pay bills, but food or save for retirement. This is money that has already been put into the hobby and I am using to continue to fund the hobby.

That changes things, if I lose, I am out nothing really. If I win, then I get to use the proceeds to pay for my new vintage RC. I am using this as a way to buy the originals.

Originally Posted by pewe

The way to think of it is like this: when a player puts a ball in play, that doesn’t become a HR, then there is some expected rate the defense makes an out.

Certainly some types of hits are more easy outs than others (pop ups, ground balls, fly balls, line drives, flairs in that order).

The best players BABIP generally hit the ball HARD or hit a lot of soft line drives/flairs.

The best of the best players will expect at most about .350 at the end of a season (think Mike Trout), but most players will be .300-.320 before luck kicks in.

So if a player is high or low relative to average you can roughly estimate how lucky or unlucky they were. Certainly you need to know if they are a Trout or not if the are sub .350, but above that you can be pretty confident they are just lucky.

Re: k%... a good rule of thumb is 2x their swinging strike rate. Robert has a 23% swinging strike rate, so his current expected K% is >40%.


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Thanks a lot! That actually makes BABIP make more sense! I have always been more of an old school way of thinking, I am working on it though. I appreciate it.

Originally Posted by Skeely

You don't need to find the next acuna or trout or luca to make money. I don't know why everybody is obsessed with finding the next big thing. What happened to buying a guy at the right time his prices doubling and then getting the hell out. You'll make a lot more money of buying the dip last year on austin meadows at the all star break and then doubling your money in a few months than by buying fifteen different guys that are unproven because you hope or think they might be the next acuna.

Heck sometimes you don't even have to find a player that ends up being that successful. I bought a ton of aquino. Everybody proceeded to laugh at me and i just sold all of it when he got recalled and made around 50 percent on top of my original investment. Buy at a good price and sell at the right time. I am a firm believer that if at anytime you can get a decent return on your investment you take it and move on. If your not attached to a player and he is only an investment and not pc why not cash in wash your hands off him and move on.

As far as kyle lewis goes i think him being on a bubble is a definite possible factor. But at the price of still 4 to 5 for a base i wouldn't bet the house on him but i would be hesitant to not buy at least a few golds or something if i were you.

Your example on Aquino is a great example. You’ve been buying him what, about 1 month and everyone laughed at you. Then you sell for a 50% profit in a month. Seems like a great investment.

The biggest thing I think is knowing to sell when there is a decent profit to be made, don’t worry about what it will be tomorrow, make a profit today and move on. More like day trading instead of long term trading.

[Donkaylove]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

It’s much easier turning a $5 card into a $10 card. Much harder doing the same with a $30 card.

I have made a killing in this range for 25 years. losses are really unnoticeable. I 3 bag on most, cuz I get the for under 5

[asujbl]

Luka isn’t close to his ceiling

That’s all I’ll add

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by dashcol

I am not a fan of Alvarez. The whole scandal put a sour taste in my mouth, and I won’t even read about the Astros unless it has to do with someone I want to read about. I will not watch them unless they are playing someone I want to watch. So, I really have no idea how he has been doing.

If you want to talk about investments, you are in this to make money. Yordan hasn't played yet this year, and is still about a week or two away from making his debut. In only 87 games played last year he ran away with the ROY and put up 3.7 WAR as a DH. His splits were insane. I think 100% he is going to dominate as a hitter. The knock on him would be his age at this point, and his knees.

His rookies are raw maybe $5. Rainbow foil is $30-$40, Gold's around $60-$80 I believe. For $200, you could get a rainbow foil, a gold, and 15 base rookies. I consider that a solid investment.

Originally Posted by Skelly

1. Don't invest in sports cards. Buy them for fun, but don't count on future income/growth, they're too volatile to risk long-term savings.

2. If you're going to invest, buy iconic cards of iconic players. In the long run you'll get more mileage out of a single Mike Trout US175 RC than 100 Luis Arraez.

3. Instead of buying the "next" guy, buy the original. Acuna could be the "next" Willie Mays, but for the price of some of his RC cards, you could buy an actual Willie Mays RC. Acuna could get hurt, flame out, or have a controversy that negatively affects his value (see Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, 2017 Astros, etc.). Willie Mays' numbers are set in stone, and his place in the game isn't going to be threatened by anything.

This is horrible advice. For one, look at Acuna. In March, his 2017 Bowman Chrome base PSA 10 was $100. It is now $300. If you bought 10 in March and sold them now, you're up $2,000. Is it something you should throw your savings into? Not exactly, but it could help procure investments over time.

Also, say you get a PSA 9 Mike Trout Update. That is $1,200 in the hole right now.

For that same price investment of $1,200, you could get a huge array of Arraez cards. Let's say it's strictly base cards you buy for sake of simplicity. 240 base cards.

In 2 years, that Trout probably is $3,000 let's say. If Arraez continues to develop into a MVP candidate, those $5 a piece rookies are now $30. If you sell 100 of your cards at this price point, that is $3,000. Same amount of Trout, but you still have 140 rookies. However, this is easier said than done because Arraez might just be a really good player and his rookie is maybe $10.

Originally Posted by pewe

The way to think of it is like this: when a player puts a ball in play, that doesn’t become a HR, then there is some expected rate the defense makes an out.

Certainly some types of hits are more easy outs than others (pop ups, ground balls, fly balls, line drives, flairs in that order).

The best players BABIP generally hit the ball HARD or hit a lot of soft line drives/flairs.

The best of the best players will expect at most about .350 at the end of a season (think Mike Trout), but most players will be .300-.320 before luck kicks in.

So if a player is high or low relative to average you can roughly estimate how lucky or unlucky they were. Certainly you need to know if they are a Trout or not if the are sub .350, but above that you can be pretty confident they are just lucky.

Re: k%... a good rule of thumb is 2x their swinging strike rate. Robert has a 23% swinging strike rate, so his current expected K% is >40%.


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This is what concerns me with Robert. I think he's a great hitter, but he is striking out 1 every 4 plate appearances right now, and doesn't walk at all.

[jsatx]

You have mentioned Arraez a few times now. You don't need us to tell you to buy him. I don't know basketball, but you like Kuzma's passion. You like Soto's attitude. Players you are pulling for should be an easy choice.

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by Zauron

Also, say you get a PSA 9 Mike Trout Update. That is $1,200 in the hole right now.

For that same price investment of $1,200, you could get a huge array of Arraez cards. Let's say it's strictly base cards you buy for sake of simplicity. 240 base cards.

In 2 years, that Trout probably is $3,000 let's say. If Arraez continues to develop into a MVP candidate, those $5 a piece rookies are now $30. If you sell 100 of your cards at this price point, that is $3,000. Same amount of Trout, but you still have 140 rookies. However, this is easier said than done because Arraez might just be a really good player and his rookie is maybe $10.

This is my approach. I rather spend 1k and double or triple it with 1 card.