Changing my “investment” strategy opinions welcome!

[dashcol]

I collect on a very limited budget, and have been doing an okay job over the last six months growing the collection without adding any new money into it.

The PC is only going to consist of PSA graded baseball and basketball rookies, so I plan on selling everything I have except those and invest in a couple players to hope and pray they come back big.

The idea is to only invest in 4 total players. I have narrowed it down to these guys, and want your guys’ opinions.

I am not looking for any trade secrets here, nor am I looking for your secret player that I don’t have listed here. I have already decided I am selling everything I have (not the PSA RC PC and Joe Mauer) and putting it into no more than four of these listed below.

Basketball
1) Luka Doncic - very high buy in, and he may be near the ceiling already.
2) Ja Morant - again high buy in, but is no where near his ceiling yet IMO.
3) Zion Williamson - very high buy in, could be injury prone, which makes him very high risk for prices to plummet.
4) Kendrick Nunn - this kid does not get enough recognition for what he can do. I believe him to be the better of the two on the heat between him and Herro. IMO he is low risk high reward. If the Heat go deep in the playoffs, it will be because of him. There’s no way that the Heat win it all, but making it past the first round would be huge for him and the Heat.
5) OG Anunoby - another very low buy in on him, but good lord has he looked good. He was good against the Lakers last night, and even though Lowry usually steals the show in every game, I like Anunoby’s game better. If they repeat this year, he could be on his way to stardom.
6) Kyle Kuzma - I love this kids passion. Really that’s what has turned me on to him. I hate the Lakers, but like him. He has already improved his discipline and attitude but kept the passion. Again, low buy in makes him even more attractive.

Baseball
1) Ronald Acuna - I am leaning away from this, everyone has bought into him making it very pricey. He is going to be a star for a long time, and prices will only go up. However, he is already about 1/10 of the way to Trout prices, but also has way more rookies than Trout.
2) Juan Soto - love the attitude. He already has a ring, and should only improve as he ages. His prices are lower than Acuna, but has less rookies than Acuna, which means higher chance of going up.
3) Luis Robert - his flagship rookie has only been put a short while, and is already $30! That is the fastest growth of a RC ever, IIRC. He is stuck on a bad team with only one other good bat, which is what has happened to Trout, so maybe he is the way to go.
4) Kyle Lewis - everyone is on the Lewis bandwagon right now, and I’ll admit I want to join. The though of him being another player to challenge .400 is exciting. However, some stats say that he is on a bubble right now that will burst soon. Still $5-6 flagships isn’t too bad to buy into.
5) Pete Alonso - the reigning rookie HR leader, has faltered at the plate this year. Sophomore slump may be a thing for him, but I do not think you can find a more positive person in MLB, which will keep him popular with everyone. His Flagship is about $10, and probably is where it is going to stay until next year. This would have to be a long hold and hope his bat wakes up next year.
6) Luis Arraez - another guy who has the potential to challenge .400 in a full season. He will be a mainstay in the crowded powerful Twins lineup. He is kind of hit or miss this year, but still doing well, so far this short year his flagship has gone from $1-2 to $3-4 even with a quiet bat. Very low risk with him.

So my thoughts for my 4 are:
1) Luis Robert - I need to buy NOW or will miss the train.
2) Luis Arraez - huge potential for the $4 RC to turn into a $10 RC within the next few weeks.
3) Ja Morant - this will be my lowest investment based on price, but I think he has ROY this year over Zion.
4) Kendrick Nunn - the Heat could be something special the next few years, and I think he will be at the helm soon.


If you guys were to chose from the list above only, who are the 4 you chose?

[Krypteia]

White sox only have one other good bat?

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by Krypteia

White sox only have one other good bat?

A bad team too? I mean, they got anderson, abreu, Jimenez, and madrigal if he pans out. I don't think they're a bad team unless you haven't been watching baseball.
I'd go with arraez

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

You missed the bus on Lewis. Bad time to buy in on him now.

[ScooterD]

From what I have learned, lower-dollar cards increase more than their rarer, high-priced counterparts. It doesn’t take much for a $5 Rc to become a $10+ card in two weeks (or less).

If you have 100 to spend, buy 20 base RCs (or diversify a little) instead of one Independence Day Or Black parallel RC. Selling takes a little more hustle and supplies, but the market demand is a bigger pool

[Boredlawyer]

Save your money and don't do any of these things.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Krypteia

White sox only have one other good bat?

Originally Posted by mikejones

A bad team too? I mean, they got anderson, abreu, Jimenez, and madrigal if he pans out. I don't think they're a bad team unless you haven't been watching baseball.
I'd go with arraez

Maybe saying they are a bad team is a bit drastic. They are playing .500 ball, but they are in the AL Central which is a tough conference now so that puts them in fourth behind the Twins, Tigers and Indians.

As far as bats, I would put Moncada above Abreu. I am not a fan of Anderson, but maybe he would grow on me. Madrigal has a lot to prove to me before I say he is a relevant bat, and Jimenez could be added to the list of bats.

There is a lot of potential there, just not yet sold on them.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

You missed the bus on Lewis. Bad time to buy in on him now.

Probably true. Seattle seems to be cursed when it comes to stars since the kid left.

Originally Posted by ScooterD

From what I have learned, lower-dollar cards increase more than their rarer, high-priced counterparts. It doesn’t take much for a $5 Rc to become a $10+ card in two weeks (or less).

If you have 100 to spend, buy 20 base RCs (or diversify a little) instead of one Independence Day Or Black parallel RC. Selling takes a little more hustle and supplies, but the market demand is a bigger pool

All true statements. It would not really be buying the high end cards unless it is a graded one for the PC. Low end is the way to go for me, I would rather have 20 cards that go up to $50 each for $1000 total instead of one card that may be worth $1000 but it will take a long time to sell, or have to sell for a 20% loss just to move it.

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Save your money and don't do any of these things.

This is all “free money” to me. When I sold all my collection last year there was a pile of cards that never sold. Those are the ones I have been playing with and have not put a dime into the hobby. It’s the only way I stay happy is if I never put any of my own money into it.

Really, I am not saving any money.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Save your money and don't do any of these things.

^ This ^

You’re talking about buying $4-$5 cards and hoping to sell for $8-$10? Is that with chagrin good the buyer for S&H? When you factor in eBay fees, shipping supplies, penny sleeves/top loaders, time spent on selling/shipping, he hassle of dealing with buyers in general, you’re not going to feel like you’re making enough. It’s not worth it.

[gamboooler]

Kendrick Nunn is an older, undersized gunner. The Heat should be adding in free agency going forward, pushing him down the pecking order. Seems like much more downside than upside with him. Also got kicked out of Illinois in 2016 with a domestic violence charge, so something to consider character wise.

Just my 2 cents.

[speedyjg13]

I don't like spending 2 bucks to make 10 or 15 bucks.

I rather spend more and make more profit. I'd buy into Soto and Robert.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Probably true. Seattle seems to be cursed when it comes to stars since the kid left.



All true statements. It would not really be buying the high end cards unless it is a graded one for the PC. Low end is the way to go for me, I would rather have 20 cards that go up to $50 each for $1000 total instead of one card that may be worth $1000 but it will take a long time to sell, or have to sell for a 20% loss just to move it.



This is all “free money” to me. When I sold all my collection last year there was a pile of cards that never sold. Those are the ones I have been playing with and have not put a dime into the hobby. It’s the only way I stay happy is if I never put any of my own money into it.

Really, I am not saving any money.

You're considering buying a 25 year old rookie that strikes out in close to 50% of his at bat's, absolutely no track record of sustained success to his name, with chrome autos approaching $200 per, with a season that has an increasingly high likelihood of being canceled in the coming days.

The most likely outcome is Kyle Lewis autos are less than $10 per in two years.

[speedyjg13]

I don't like spending 2 bucks to make 10 or 15 bucks.

I rather spend more and make more profit. I'd buy into Soto and Robert.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

^ This ^

You’re talking about buying $4-$5 cards and hoping to sell for $8-$10? Is that with chagrin good the buyer for S&H? When you factor in eBay fees, shipping supplies, penny sleeves/top loaders, time spent on selling/shipping, he hassle of dealing with buyers in general, you’re not going to feel like you’re making enough. It’s not worth it.

It would be more like 100 cards of a guy like Arraez which would probably cost me around $450. If those cards then go up to $10, that’s now $1000. Take away a PayPal fees (I don’t sell on eBay, only other places), let’s say that leaves me with $850. Now let’s say I sold them in ten lots, so shipping at most would cost $50. That leaves $800. Take away the initial $450 and that leaves $350 for me to buy some PC Cards and then find a new player to invest in.

I know this is ideal, and won’t always work that simple, but this is also a hobby for me. The buying, selling, haggling, and even packaging and shipping is fun for me. Seeing as I don’t use eBay, I get to know a lot of people where I do buy and sell and made some good friends.

This is all about making the hobby self funding, not making it pay my bills.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by dashcol

I collect on a very limited budget, and have been doing an okay job over the last six months growing the collection without adding any new money into it.

The PC is only going to consist of PSA graded baseball and basketball rookies, so I plan on selling everything I have except those and invest in a couple players to hope and pray they come back big.

The idea is to only invest in 4 total players. I have narrowed it down to these guys, and want your guys’ opinions.

I am not looking for any trade secrets here, nor am I looking for your secret player that I don’t have listed here. I have already decided I am selling everything I have (not the PSA RC PC and Joe Mauer) and putting it into no more than four of these listed below.

Basketball
1) Luka Doncic - very high buy in, and he may be near the ceiling already.
2) Ja Morant - again high buy in, but is no where near his ceiling yet IMO.
3) Zion Williamson - very high buy in, could be injury prone, which makes him very high risk for prices to plummet.
4) Kendrick Nunn - this kid does not get enough recognition for what he can do. I believe him to be the better of the two on the heat between him and Herro. IMO he is low risk high reward. If the Heat go deep in the playoffs, it will be because of him. There’s no way that the Heat win it all, but making it past the first round would be huge for him and the Heat.
5) OG Anunoby - another very low buy in on him, but good lord has he looked good. He was good against the Lakers last night, and even though Lowry usually steals the show in every game, I like Anunoby’s game better. If they repeat this year, he could be on his way to stardom.
6) Kyle Kuzma - I love this kids passion. Really that’s what has turned me on to him. I hate the Lakers, but like him. He has already improved his discipline and attitude but kept the passion. Again, low buy in makes him even more attractive.

Baseball
1) Ronald Acuna - I am leaning away from this, everyone has bought into him making it very pricey. He is going to be a star for a long time, and prices will only go up. However, he is already about 1/10 of the way to Trout prices, but also has way more rookies than Trout.
2) Juan Soto - love the attitude. He already has a ring, and should only improve as he ages. His prices are lower than Acuna, but has less rookies than Acuna, which means higher chance of going up.
3) Luis Robert - his flagship rookie has only been put a short while, and is already $30! That is the fastest growth of a RC ever, IIRC. He is stuck on a bad team with only one other good bat, which is what has happened to Trout, so maybe he is the way to go.
4) Kyle Lewis - everyone is on the Lewis bandwagon right now, and I’ll admit I want to join. The though of him being another player to challenge .400 is exciting. However, some stats say that he is on a bubble right now that will burst soon. Still $5-6 flagships isn’t too bad to buy into.
5) Pete Alonso - the reigning rookie HR leader, has faltered at the plate this year. Sophomore slump may be a thing for him, but I do not think you can find a more positive person in MLB, which will keep him popular with everyone. His Flagship is about $10, and probably is where it is going to stay until next year. This would have to be a long hold and hope his bat wakes up next year.
6) Luis Arraez - another guy who has the potential to challenge .400 in a full season. He will be a mainstay in the crowded powerful Twins lineup. He is kind of hit or miss this year, but still doing well, so far this short year his flagship has gone from $1-2 to $3-4 even with a quiet bat. Very low risk with him.

So my thoughts for my 4 are:
1) Luis Robert - I need to buy NOW or will miss the train.
2) Luis Arraez - huge potential for the $4 RC to turn into a $10 RC within the next few weeks.
3) Ja Morant - this will be my lowest investment based on price, but I think he has ROY this year over Zion.
4) Kendrick Nunn - the Heat could be something special the next few years, and I think he will be at the helm soon.


If you guys were to chose from the list above only, who are the 4 you chose?

Buy vintage

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by gamboooler

Kendrick Nunn is an older, undersized gunner. The Heat should be adding in free agency going forward, pushing him down the pecking order. Seems like much more downside than upside with him. Also got kicked out of Illinois in 2016 with a domestic violence charge, so something to consider character wise.

Just my 2 cents.

I didn’t realize any of that about him. Character means a lot to me so he is out. I will have to chose someone else.

The basketball was based solely on watching them play, and my thoughts of them on the court, never looked into their past. Thanks for pointing that out to me.

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

I don't like spending 2 bucks to make 10 or 15 bucks.

I rather spend more and make more profit. I'd buy into Soto and Robert.

Yours is an opinion I respect, and I can see your point. I think Robert is going to be one, Soto has such an upside as well, can’t believe he has less demand than Acuna. Sadly I had a decent Soto collection going last year, and sold it all in the collection when I sold it. He is way more expensive now than he was when I sold!

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

You're considering buying a 25 year old rookie that strikes out in close to 50% of his at bat's, absolutely no track record of sustained success to his name, with chrome autos approaching $200 per, with a season that has an increasingly high likelihood of being canceled in the coming days.

The most likely outcome is Kyle Lewis autos are less than $10 per in two years.

Yeah, everyone is talking me out of Kyle Lewis. I am thinking I just got caught up in the hype over him and looking at him as an all around player makes him less attractive.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by oplum29

Buy vintage

I do have some and am probably keeping them. I like rookies, and want them graded. Graded vintage rookies are way outside of what I can pay right now. I do have a couple Mantles sitting around though.

[free2131]

If you're "investing" in hopes to make money, buying what is popular now is probably the last thing you should do. You need to find the "next" Acuna, Soto, Luca, etc. You have to miss a TON to hit on guys like those mentioned. The problem is, with all the "investor-bros" infesting the hobby, those guys who might have flown over the radar are now selling for way more than they are worth and won't ever sustain the prices they are demanding. Before you could miss on 6 out of every 7 guys you "prospected" and still end up very much in the black, but now if you miss 2 or 3, you'll never make your money back, let alone make a profit.

If you're main goal is to buy cards that will appreciate and are in it for the long haul, vintage and established HOF and sure fire HOF superstars (not the Jim Rice level HOFers) are what you need to buy. High grade Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Griffey, Trout, etc.

[NewEra760]

Don’t listen to everyone saying don’t waste your time. You can’t look at it like making $2, if that $2 dollars is 70% margin. The way you’re talking about buying 100 of each player only amplifies that which is good. Basketball rookies are tough, they are all priced so high, while some may still go up, most of these guys are at their all time peak right now. Just go through every Draft class for the last 20 years, very rarely more then 2 guys become superstars, and superstars sell, role players do not.

Luis Robert is the most obvious path to Acuna/Soto type numbers. I like Arraez myself, but Twins market and not much power, probably puts him at Jeff McNeil type prices best case right now.

[notfast]

Selling everything to “invest” in some guys like Arraez and Nunn?

I think you need to reconsider your entire plan.

[trendy26]

I just put a huge bet on 2020 Finest Flashback with my purchase of the Red Mike Trout Autograph/5. Hopefully it pans out. I think I got it at a decent price point....

[tfazzz]

Mike trout...

[CapeTownCards]

Luka, Ja, Ronald and Juan.
For best investment value I’m going with Juan and Luka.
Disclaimer: I am invested in all 4, but if I had to get it over I would’ve invested the Ja and Acuna money in the other two.
Still, I think all 4 will be exciting to watch for a long time.

[pewe]

I’d be most worried about Luis Robert... he’s likely to be a career .250 batter with 25-30% K rate... perhaps saving graces will be decent power and + defense.

Don’t be snowed by current performance... he’s buoyed by a .455 BABIP right now... let’s give him credit for league leading average BABIP in the future, and assume he settles at .350... that suggests mid-.200s BA as an expectation. Perhaps he’ll be even worse.

[i have no opinion on Lewis, so perhaps I should be even more skeptical there... just never explored him as an option]


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[Zauron]

Originally Posted by gamboooler

Kendrick Nunn is an older, undersized gunner. The Heat should be adding in free agency going forward, pushing him down the pecking order. Seems like much more downside than upside with him. Also got kicked out of Illinois in 2016 with a domestic violence charge, so something to consider character wise.

Just my 2 cents.

Nunn is definitely someone I wouldn't invest in. Basically, I would only touch Doncic, Zion, and Morant on his basketball list.

And everybody mocking him for buying $5 rookies to resell, don't forget how little Acuna Update's and Soto Update's cost at the beginning. Buy 100 of Arraez or say 50 Robert's, and they exceed expectations, suddenly the base are going to skyrocket.

That said, I highly question the stability of Robert.

Another guy to really look at is Yordan Alvarez btw, who has flown under the radar now. People forget how beastly he was hitting.