Are Football cards poised to explode?!?

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

I don't think you can use the last three months as an example, as it's definitely not representative of how pricing generally moves. 300% gain on base cards of players who aren't playing isn't the norm.

Your point stands that there are positions other than qb that sell, but it's a smaller gain on a smaller pool. 1/4 of the nfl's qb's appear to be investment-worthy right now - not sure you can say the same about other positions

Yeah I wouldn’t advise blowing money on non-qb to store them away and hold for 15 years. The short term flips are heading the same direction as basketball though, regardless of position. The overall $ amount won’t come close to basketball but the % increase will be on par.

As for using the last three months, that’s the conversation of the thread. Nobody could have predicted basketball to do what it did. Football is and will follow.

All of this, of course, is in my humble opinion only. I’m not on YouTube. I have no credentials.

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

You are so observant.

Thanks! Glad you have you back.

[blevins26]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Yeah I wouldn’t advise blowing money on non-qb to store them away and hold for 15 years. The short term flips are heading the same direction as basketball though, regardless of position. The overall $ amount won’t come close to basketball but the % increase will be on par.

As for using the last three months, that’s the conversation of the thread. Nobody could have predicted basketball to do what it did. Football is and will follow.

All of this, of course, is in my humble opinion only. I’m not on YouTube. I have no credentials.

Sometimes I like to flip the question around backwards. "If 3 months from now football prices explode, will it seem like it was easy to have predicted?"

Clearly the answer is "yes" to that question. It will be easy to see that Covid created a lot of gambling money that wants a home, it will be clear that basketball saw the same rise, it will be clear that eventually basketball would peak and the money would spill over into football.

What I think is specifically interesting right now is that non-auto cards seem to be taking off like never before.

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by blevins26

What I think is specifically interesting right now is that non-auto cards seem to be taking off like never before.

I agree 100%. I could have never guessed that we would see base, non-auto, mass produced RCs taking off the way that they have. We have base optic Mahomes PSA 10s going close to $1k and base prizm 10s going close to $5k!!! Thats insane money. But I love it because I have some of each!! LOL

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by blevins26

What I think is specifically interesting right now is that non-auto cards seem to be taking off like never before.

Spot on. A lot of nice on-card autos can be had for peanuts. On the contrary, sticker autos might be dying a slow death. I’ll take a sp parallel over a sticker all day.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Spot on. A lot of nice on-card autos can be had for peanuts. On the contrary, sticker autos might be dying a slow death. I’ll take a sp parallel over a sticker all day.

I dislike sticker autos but Contenders legacy brand will keep them alive in football. Heck, I prefer the Contenders Rookie Auto, sticker or not sometimes.

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I dislike sticker autos but Contenders legacy brand will keep them alive in football. Heck, I prefer the Contenders Rookie Auto, sticker or not sometimes.

Me too. In my mind, contenders will always be king for football rc autos.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I dislike sticker autos but Contenders legacy brand will keep them alive in football. Heck, I prefer the Contenders Rookie Auto, sticker or not sometimes.

Really wanted a minshew contenders auto but I just can’t get passed that sticker. Take my money if it was on-card.

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by tjforce

My elaboration:

We are in the beginning stages of paradigm shift where new money flowing into Football turns each week into a casino where notable cards (PSA 10 key rookies, Prizm Silver, etc) are the currency. Basketball collectors are at a point where they cannot find rare cards like Prizm Golds on top players, and are looking at guys like Brady and Mahomes and seeing how cheap they have been selling and frothing at the mouth for them. Although, those have started to dry up lately.

Just last summer I was showing off a pickup I had here for $200: a 1998 TC Refractor Peyton Manning. One of the regs around here told me it wasn't a good investment because football collectors didn't care about that card. So I doubled down and bought another one. Feel free to look up what that goes for now.

As for non-QBs..... would I spend $200 on a McCaffrey Prizm when I can get a Tomlinson PSA 9 Topps Chrome refractor for only.....

$500. Wait a second! I thought Tomlinson didn't sell for anything. It's almost like something is happening where people are starting to pick these things up.

And I know CMC hasn't accomplished what Tomlinson has yet, but there's a lot of potential there to grow his appeal as a fan favorite, and all it takes is one season where Carolina can compete for the division and he's in the MVP race. Collectors/Flippers will get caught up in the moment. Remember the hobby love that AP used to get before he got busted for abusing children.

I'm not sure we're that far off on the way we see things. Most of my football money is in Mahomes and Brady. But damn, when I had the chance to get a CMC Gold XRC that's probably going to grade a 10, for the price of a LeBron Silver Prizm (not even early years), I was all over it.

This is just my opinion. Nobody has to agree with it. It just really seems to me very similar to football 2 years ago. I thank you for asking my opinion instead of just jumping all over it.

The weekly casino analogy is an interesting take, which would probably play out similarly to fantasy peaks & valleys.
I may test out a specific buying idea based on the above comment.

Respect for your opinion on the matter seeing as you've shown yourself to be more versed in the matter than me, but I'm still have difficulty seeing how football can catch up in scope to what's happening right now with the NBA both within the hobby and culturally.

To use CMC as an example, who is his NBA or MLB comp? Unorthodox question, I know.

Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.

[Selanne00008]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

The weekly casino analogy is an interesting take, which would probably play out similarly to fantasy peaks & valleys.
I may test out a specific buying idea based on the above comment.

Respect for your opinion on the matter seeing as you've shown yourself to be more versed in the matter than me, but I'm still have difficulty seeing how football can catch up in scope to what's happening right now with the NBA both within the hobby and culturally.

To use CMC as an example, who is his NBA or MLB comp? Unorthodox question, I know.

Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.

The first comp that came to mind was a Westbrook.
Super super talented. One man show on a team. Never has won anything. MVP caliber but not in a strong market/city.

But just doesn’t seem to be in the upper tier with Lebron Giannis Durant Ja Zion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Selanne00008

The first comp that came to mind was a Westbrook.
Super super talented. One man show on a team. Never has won anything. MVP caliber but not in a strong market/city.

But just doesn’t seem to be in the upper tier with Lebron Giannis Durant Ja Zion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Look at CMCs prices and you'll see that he doesn't need to be in Lebron/Giannis/Zion category to see a huge price increase.

You can buy a 2-color Mccaffrey NT RPA for under 1,000 on ebay right now.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Selanne00008

The first comp that came to mind was a Westbrook.
Super super talented. One man show on a team. Never has won anything. MVP caliber but not in a strong market/city.

But just doesn’t seem to be in the upper tier with Lebron Giannis Durant Ja Zion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Westbrook was the MVP in 2017 so he has won something. He also has 3 straight seasons where he averaged a triple-double.

Ja is in the upper tier? I'm not seeing it yet.

[jjohnson814]

Originally Posted by Selanne00008

The first comp that came to mind was a Westbrook.
Super super talented. One man show on a team. Never has won anything. MVP caliber but not in a strong market/city.

But just doesn’t seem to be in the upper tier with Lebron Giannis Durant Ja Zion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The reason Westbrook wasn't next level was because of his market but giannis is in Milwaukee? I'm not seeing that. It's everything to do with his lack of ability to win big games down the stretch with his inefficient shot.

I still think Westbrook is undervalued compared to Ja. What has Ja done. The post above points out all of Westbrook's accomplishments.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by jjohnson814

The reason Westbrook wasn't next level was because of his market but giannis is in Milwaukee? I'm not seeing that. It's everything to do with his lack of ability to win big games down the stretch with his inefficient shot.

I still think Westbrook is undervalued compared to Ja. What has Ja done. The post above points out all of Westbrook's accomplishments.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

There is also the unlikeable factor. Westbrook definitely has that going for him. There are so many variables that factor in to hobby love. Step one: don’t be a prick.

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Look at CMCs prices and you'll see that he doesn't need to be in Lebron/Giannis/Zion category to see a huge price increase.

You can buy a 2-color Mccaffrey NT RPA for under 1,000 on ebay right now.

Westbrooks 2008 Exquisite RPA isn’t too much more

[Selanne00008]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

Westbrooks 2008 Exquisite RPA isn’t too much more

Well then there ya go. I did t even know the card market of them both. I was just thinking as far as popularity within each of their sports. Talent, etc. seemed somewhat on par to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by Selanne00008

Well then there ya go. I did t even know the card market of them both. I was just thinking as far as popularity within each of their sports. Talent, etc. seemed somewhat on par to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You guys have better comps than I do.
I’m still trying to understand what’s going on with the football market aside from the big names under center.

[Selanne00008]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

You guys have better comps than I do.
I’m still trying to understand what’s going on with the football market aside from the big names under center.

I dont even know b-ball that well so it was a complete shot in the dark. casual watcher, Only after round 1 of playoffs since there are so few upsets before that.

I just know a lot of people like Westbrook because he stuck with OKC and didn’t “sell out”. But then again other than him holding OKC afloat, not much to compete with the likes of LA, GS was etc.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

Westbrooks 2008 Exquisite RPA isn’t too much more

Is it, though?

The cheapest Westbrook RPA is available on ebay is over $3k. And it's numbered out of 225, not 99. Heck, If you can buy a CMC today for less than 1,000 and sell for even half of the ask on the Westbrook a few months from now, thats not bad.

But I wasn't comparing him to Westbrook. I was comparing to LeBron, Giannis, Zion. I'm a Westbrook fan myself, but understand why people don't like him.

1. is his attitude.
2. is the fact he's never won a title, though he does have a Finals appearance
3. is his poor efficiency
4. is the fact that a lot of collectors invest in Durant hated Westbrook stealing some of his sunshine back in the OKC days.


Mccaffrey only has 1 of those things working against him.

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Is it, though?

The cheapest Westbrook RPA is available on ebay is over $3k. And it's numbered out of 225, not 99. Heck, If you can buy a CMC today for less than 1,000 and sell for even half of the ask on the Westbrook a few months from now, thats not bad.

But I wasn't comparing him to Westbrook. I was comparing to LeBron, Giannis, Zion. I'm a Westbrook fan myself, but understand why people don't like him.

1. is his attitude.
2. is the fact he's never won a title, though he does have a Finals appearance
3. is his poor efficiency
4. is the fact that a lot of collectors invest in Durant hated Westbrook stealing some of his sunshine back in the OKC days.


Mccaffrey only has 1 of those things working against him.

The NFL-NBA comparison is increasingly difficult for me to navigate so I'm going to give leave that up to people more versed in both markets.

My Westbrook comment was solely based on two recent sales of $1600, but it's neither here nor there.

Is your view that the modern NFL market is due for a similar boon to the one being experienced with the NBA? Or is it that certain superstars players such as CMC are undervalued? Or both?

If both, where are you seeing the indications of this?
Outside of the most obvious names under center, I'm largely in the dark on the recent & potential future growth of the NFL card market.

[mike1498]

Personally, I see QBs as the only potential beneficiaries of this. Once the basketball bois get burned on players like CMC, they’ll realize how the football market works and will invest solely in QBs. Also don’t expect anything near basketball but I think people are realizing after 2007 and now COVID that cards are way less volatile than stocks. Just my guess but have no evidence.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

The NFL-NBA comparison is increasingly difficult for me to navigate so I'm going to give leave that up to people more versed in both markets.

My Westbrook comment was solely based on two recent sales of $1600, but it's neither here nor there.

Is your view that the modern NFL market is due for a similar boon to the one being experienced with the NBA? Or is it that certain superstars players such as CMC are undervalued? Or both?

If both, where are you seeing the indications of this?
Outside of the most obvious names under center, I'm largely in the dark on the recent & potential future growth of the NFL card market.

Similar to NBA.

And while the QBs will be the main beneficiaries, top names at other positions will do well too.

When fantasy drafts start and CMC is the top pick in every draft, that’s going to cause a bump. When some random running back like nick Chubb or Derrick Henry has a monster 250+ yard game, there will be a bump. This is all stuff we see every year, I’m just convinced it’ll be much more dramatic this year.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by blevins26

Sometimes I like to flip the question around backwards. "If 3 months from now football prices explode, will it seem like it was easy to have predicted?"

Clearly the answer is "yes" to that question. It will be easy to see that Covid created a lot of gambling money that wants a home, it will be clear that basketball saw the same rise, it will be clear that eventually basketball would peak and the money would spill over into football.

What I think is specifically interesting right now is that non-auto cards seem to be taking off like never before.

Originally Posted by tjforce

Similar to NBA.

And while the QBs will be the main beneficiaries, top names at other positions will do well too.

When fantasy drafts start and CMC is the top pick in every draft, that’s going to cause a bump. When some random running back like nick Chubb or Derrick Henry has a monster 250+ yard game, there will be a bump. This is all stuff we see every year, I’m just convinced it’ll be much more dramatic this year.

What if there’s no fantasy? Nooooooo

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Is it, though?

The cheapest Westbrook RPA is available on ebay is over $3k. And it's numbered out of 225, not 99. Heck, If you can buy a CMC today for less than 1,000 and sell for even half of the ask on the Westbrook a few months from now, thats not bad.

But I wasn't comparing him to Westbrook. I was comparing to LeBron, Giannis, Zion. I'm a Westbrook fan myself, but understand why people don't like him.

1. is his attitude.
2. is the fact he's never won a title, though he does have a Finals appearance
3. is his poor efficiency
4. is the fact that a lot of collectors invest in Durant hated Westbrook stealing some of his sunshine back in the OKC days.


Mccaffrey only has 1 of those things working against him.

Remember Arian Foster? He was a top back in the league, and now he is basically a nobody.

LeSean McCoy was considered a good back, and he is worthless now. You just see a lot of times, RB's produce like crazy, and then it's gone and they are forgotten. Heck, Clinton Portis had a great career but nobody cares now.

How about more recent, Todd Gurley. Where is he going to stand in 3 years?

Going to WR, look at Demaryius Thomas. He looked like a future HOF and now he's just another decent WR. I sort of question where AJ Green stands currently. Antonio Brown, he was the best WR in the league(or 2nd best) and now he's just about finished in the league. Josh Gordon was a top 5 WR, he's done.

It's just, I see all these examples of players flaming out. Plus, if they do end up being good players, they are still cheap. I mean, I can get a Randy Moss PSA 10 Topps Chrome for $400ish right now and to me he's the 2nd best WR behind Rice I've seen play.

[Selanne00008]

There was some solid tracking by folks in the Mahomes thread. How we wanted to know if a PWCC Mahomes flawless at like 37K was actually paid for. It was confirmed as paid for, and someone mentioned it was an investment company of some kind?

I don’t remember exactly but, is that where the massssive influx of $$$ is coming from? Millions of influx can’t be sneaker heads. “Asia” seems to broad. Hedge funds trying to diversify and think they know sports?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk