Are Football cards poised to explode?!?

[BeastMode27]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

In basketball, I think it's easier to see how good a player is on their own. One player can make a huge impact and players drafted in the higher lottery picks can usually transition somewhat effectively. This leads to stronger speculation price wise.

Football is tough value wise because it really does rely on the team. QB's need receivers, a line, and a defense to keep them winning games. RB's need a line and an effective QB (and a defense so they can keep running the ball.) WR's need a QB, a line, and a pass friendly offense. Football also, by far, has the most "busts" when it comes to top draft picks, and can lead to some tremendous falls at all positions. The current astronomical values of QBs will come back to earth at some point when people see that value in football isn't entirely based on potential.

Guys like Kyler, Lock, etc would be lucky to have a career like Matthew Stafford, but with the available hindsight is he a QB you would've wanted to invest in? Most of these guys will be Andy Daltons or Tyrod Taylors.

I disagree with the last part. The talent coming out for QB now is so much better than it was in the past. These guys look the part. I compare it to how the majority of top baseball prospects busted until the last couple years. Most QBs busted as well until recently. Not sure what is going on, but the bust ratio for top prospects/QBs has greatly diminished in both baseball and football Since 2016. Great for the leagues and the card market with so much young great talent. People less scared to put money into a player.

[senorlaverga]

RBs are almost valueless after retirement unless your name is Barry. What do Shaun Alexander, Marshall Faulk and Ladainian Tomlinson have in common? They all won MVP and are also easily found in quarter bins at card shops.

[chasacar86]

Originally Posted by ucLAkers

Like who? Example please....

Oof, I don't play keyboard olympics with people on here. Sry!

You're on here enough, you know exactly what I'm referring to

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Hopefully my post didn’t come off as complaining. I’m not. I think it’s great that the hobby is growing, but as someone who collects comics and cards and has lived through a few boom/crash periods, I just see a lot of signs that point to a financial downturn. I just hope the people coming in genuinely love the hobby, those are the people we need more of. Sometimes it seems like it’s just new people coming in, dropping a lot of money on a card, and then wanting to see an immediate financial gain. I’m less enthusiastic about those people entering the hobby. As someone who doesn’t do this for the money, it’s no big deal, I’ll just be here waiting to add to my collection if a crash happens.

Totally understand that, just think that will always be around. For sure seems more frequent and at a much higher scale now. Wasn't directed at your post either just a general take.

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

I disagree with the last part. The talent coming out for QB now is so much better than it was in the past. These guys look the part. I compare it to how the majority of top baseball prospects busted until the last couple years. Most QBs busted as well until recently. Not sure what is going on, but the bust ratio for top prospects/QBs has greatly diminished in both baseball and football Since 2016. Great for the leagues and the card market with so much young great talent. People less scared to put money into a player.

I agree with that - recent year QBs have had more success out of college. Also wonder why - maybe college systems are better prepping for NFL level? I think athleticism helps - Mahomes, Watson, Jackson, Kyler, and Daniel Jones can all run a bit. Wentz can even scramble a bit (though that's how he gets hurt.)

But how many have regressed from playoff berths or looking really good: Goff, Trubisky, Carr, Mayfield, Mariota. Rosen is probably near Bust status with the jury out on Darnold.

Other first round QBs like Bridgewater, Bortles, Winston, Manziel, and Paxton Lynch aren't even in the conversation.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

I agree with that - recent year QBs have had more success out of college. Also wonder why - maybe college systems are better prepping for NFL level?

High School systems are getting better preparing players for colleges. Fit is important and you have a lot of players in general trying to get on the field as freshmen by selecting colleges where they can compete immediately. Jayden Daniels of ASU is a prime example. Obviously the way the player matures physically is important but not so much in the QB position in most cases. Football IQ,mental readiness,leadership and decision making are more important. I believe that it carries on to the NFL.

[BeastMode27]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

I agree with that - recent year QBs have had more success out of college. Also wonder why - maybe college systems are better prepping for NFL level? I think athleticism helps - Mahomes, Watson, Jackson, Kyler, and Daniel Jones can all run a bit. Wentz can even scramble a bit (though that's how he gets hurt.)

But how many have regressed from playoff berths or looking really good: Goff, Trubisky, Carr, Mayfield, Mariota. Rosen is probably near Bust status with the jury out on Darnold.

Other first round QBs like Bridgewater, Bortles, Winston, Manziel, and Paxton Lynch aren't even in the conversation.

That’s why I said since 2016. The only busts you listed there since 2016 are Rosen and Trubisky. They both have time, but don’t see it at all from Rosen. Mitch still has a chance.

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by senorlaverga

RBs are almost valueless after retirement unless your name is Barry. What do Shaun Alexander, Marshall Faulk and Ladainian Tomlinson have in common? They all won MVP and are also easily found in quarter bins at card shops.

So true. Those names man. Jamal Lewis didn't win MVP, but he's in the convo too. Careers were just too short for all these guys.

I sold my Shaun Alexander spx RC jersey/auto for like $20 a few years ago and looking at prices now, that was good $.

I've got a LT Upper Deck Rookie On card Auto #'d to 100 that sells for less than $100.

And Faulk was the first all around RB I can really remember - before Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, and Christian McCaffrey.

I mentioned this in the Christian McCaffrey thread that it's hard to see his values sustain with the history of the guys you mentioned, but as most threads on here, it just turned into a pump thread.

[Archangel1775]

Wrong thread

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

That’s why I said since 2016. The only busts you listed there since 2016 are Rosen and Trubisky. They both have time, but don’t see it at all from Rosen. Mitch still has a chance.

My b. I missed that. Agree on Trubisky - I think he's better than his stats look. Rosen has the "IDGAF" Jay Cutler look without the arm, but we'll see lol.

I do think the athleticism helps with the younger QBs though - they can run around and make things happen much more than previous years. The new rules protecting them also help them immensely.

[tjforce]

This feels like a post in the basketball section from 2018.

I think some of you should know what I'm getting at here.

(I'll start searching for Chicken Little GIFs as I await replies).

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

High School systems are getting better preparing players for colleges. Fit is important and you have a lot of players in general trying to get on the field as freshmen by selecting colleges where they can compete immediately. Jayden Daniels of ASU is a prime example. Obviously the way the player matures physically is important but not so much in the QB position in most cases. Football IQ,mental readiness,leadership and decision making are more important. I believe that it carries on to the NFL.

I barely even follow college, so it's interesting to hear this perspective from a development standpoint. Getting that playing time is likely just as important as being part of a top program

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

This post has set off a wildfire!!!

[rippev]

I do think that the overflow of new basketball collectors/investors will move to football. Especially with prizm and optic.

[heatdawg]

It will be tough to overthrow the NFL owners, with that being said;I do not see NFL ever reaching NBA values. NBA is star driven, NFL is owner driven. But I do see more money coming into football this season. You can only hype up so many bums in the NBA before real talent from the NFL will start to look like a steal to these investors.

NBA was active and had the 1st crack at our explosion in this hobby, football will have its day, just not today.

Football is America's sport, lets not forget this either.

[Mac302]

There are simply just more people in the market for all sports cards. Retail football is still flying off the shelf.

Football will never be basketball or baseball....but everyone's collections should increase in value based on how much the Zion affect has had on all sports cards

[deansayso]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

So true. Those names man. Jamal Lewis didn't win MVP, but he's in the convo too. Careers were just too short for all these guys.

I sold my Shaun Alexander spx RC jersey/auto for like $20 a few years ago and looking at prices now, that was good $.

I've got a LT Upper Deck Rookie On card Auto #'d to 100 that sells for less than $100.

And Faulk was the first all around RB I can really remember - before Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, and Christian McCaffrey.

I mentioned this in the Christian McCaffrey thread that it's hard to see his values sustain with the history of the guys you mentioned, but as most threads on here, it just turned into a pump thread.

True but you can get John Elway autos for around 100 bucks too

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by deansayso

True but you can get John Elway autos for around 100 bucks too

Yeah, but I'm talking numbered rookie autos. I know auto RCs have fallen out of favor for the most popular base card recently, but I've always held them higher.

[jjohnson814]

Originally Posted by tjforce

This feels like a post in the basketball section from 2018.

I think some of you should know what I'm getting at here.

(I'll start searching for Chicken Little GIFs as I await replies).

This is exactly what I was thinking. I've been a long time LeBron and basketball collector but the prices are just too high to buy a nice card I want. So I have moved to football. I think many others will follow.

Furthermore, I don't see why only quarterbacks get love. The argument I hear is that quarterbacks have more impact on winning and losing. If that's the case then someone please explain to me why Mike Trout is so expensive. The guy has one playoff hit and he's Mickey Mantle? That logic should apply to other positions in football and it will over time.

Another point I'll make here is that we are seeing a big influx into the market of shoe flippers and gamblers. Next we will see more fantasy football players, daily fantasy players. Guess what positions those guys like? It's not quarterbacks. Think about it.

Football is far and away the most popular game in America and all these reasons I hear football cards aren't popular with lack of international just doesn't matter to me. There are 50 million football fans in this country and sports cards are slowly becoming one of the hottest trends in American culture. You don't think gambling, fantasy football psychotic, American football fans want a piece of the action?

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by tjforce

This feels like a post in the basketball section from 2018.

I think some of you should know what I'm getting at here.

(I'll start searching for Chicken Little GIFs as I await replies).

As a former football collector, I’ve largely given up on collecting modern football outside of a very select few.
I’d recon people here would be smart to stick with MVP-caliber QBs & HOFers only, most which have already seen nice price run ups.

Awaiting your elaboration.

[starvela]

Not counting Rice...If you’re not a QB, you have to be a transcendent freak athlete, such as Randy Moss and Barry Sanders...These 2 don’t even need Super Bowls or accolades, etc. And guess what, they keep going up and Barry rules the 90s over the QB’s such as Marino, Favre, Elway and Young..But those are really rare talents and I haven’t seen anything close to those 2, since them....So until another Barry and Moss comes along, good luck...

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by starvela

Not counting Rice...If you’re not a QB, you have to be a transcendent freak athlete, such as Randy Moss and Barry Sanders...These 2 don’t even need Super Bowls or accolades, etc. And guess what, they keep going up and Barry rules the 90s over the QB’s such as Marino, Favre, Elway and Young..But those are really rare talents and I haven’t seen anything close to those 2, since them....So until another Barry and Moss comes along, good luck...

Agree. All of the great receivers over the last 10-15 years and all pretty cheap to this point. Barry and Randy are in that Griffey category for me, legends, rare talent and will continue to increase in value and popularity without rings.

[ArmyDC]

I think the Basketball card hunters are taking aim at Football right now with select players like Lamar Jackson, Mahomes.there is a year to get a lot of new collectors in this is it with a large QB class. With Mosaic coming out in September you will see a large bump in new collectors crossing over from Basketball, noticed Mosaic presale already sold out on blowout.. . That’s Basketball type of consumer behavior...The part that is crazy is how defensive players are starting to get some high prices. Last year Bosa and this year Young, their prices are up there..

[LakeCityDepot]

Logic would tell you to buy the legends and hold long-term.

Start with QB's.

Then WR's, RB's, and TE's.

...and then Defensive players.

[ninjacookies]

Hi obvious new poster with zero underlying motives.



No.

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Hi obvious new poster with zero underlying motives.



No.

Is it not normal to ask a question, answer it yourself, and post a picture of a card you own that you're hoping "explodes" in value all in one post?