Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[JVB]

11:11

Make a wish

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by JVB

11:11

Make a wish

It’s 4:22 where you are.




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[71sbeetle]

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

The prices have fluctuated, mostly increased with each release- I got my Efdot Ryan auto for $80 like 3 weeks ago.

For tony Gwynn, his latest release, the pricings were as follows, but keep in mind, there might have been a “supply and demand” dynamic pricing increase as the number in stock dwindled- but don’t quote me on that.

$175 Black unnumbered (no stated print run yet but it was in the multiple hundreds I believe, maybe 400?)

$300 Yellow /150

$650 Silver /40

$850 Padres Brown /19

$1200 Gold /5

$1900 Blue /2


And then he is auctioning off the Rose Gold 1/1 on eBay, with 50% of the proceeds going to Color of Change and it’s currently at $2,070:


https://www.ebay.com/itm/164226794934


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Awesome thanks for the info!

[jfan2024]

Today's 10k print runs are an absolute death toll for this set imo. We absolutely should be praying for sky high print runs as collectors or investors because that is the main thing that will hold the set up. INTEREST IN THE SET.

10k print runs to me also mean the hobby AT LARGE DOES NOT CARE about this set. There are 17.5k Acuna US250 in the PSA registry, 14k Soto US300, and 15.5k Luka prizm. Look at those values. These are base cards only, not counting any of the million parallels topps/panini are shipping out, only PSA meaning it doesn't account for raw or other grading companies, and ignores the fact that there are about 50 different products each year that have these guys with RC logos on them nowadays. I find it crazy people are claiming that a 10k print run on a P2020 card is too large and the hobby can't support it. Yet this ship is tanking as fast as any set I can remember. If you truly believe 10k print is too large and P2020 is appropriately priced currently, what does that say about the hobby at large and how painful the fall will be when the bubble bursts entirely? I'm actually in the camp that 10k should be viewed as a minuscule print run to the hobby

Ninja is right we've hit despair and if cards=stocks now is the time to be buying and buying big to dollar cost average but I just see no reason for a big jump up. We need something to happen to pump life back into the P2020 market. We need Gary V QE

Every time I get mail with these cards it just pisses me off. Love hate. Can't think of any set of cards released the last few years I'd take over these cards as a collector, but receiving packages with these cards just puts me in a bad mood for days on end given the dollar loss. Sorry for rant, received Grotesk Jeter today in the mail and in an awful mood all day

Yeah yeah hobby purists like thosebackpages (his youtube is great if you don't follow him btw) can flame me for thinking of set value and talk about how great the set is when you buy MSRP from topps I get it. But I'm sorry while I also miss the days on breaking a 16-box case of revolution or 24-box optic basketball retail case for like $800, no way do I want to go back to days of this hobby being a pure cost

[Ferg1945]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news.... the "hobby" NEVER really cared about this set. It was HYPED beyond belief on this board and that alone can move the needle on prices. Add in the "cook" groups and prices go up even more. Once that happened it gain even more popularity on this board and the needle moved even more. The artists joining and talking to the group just added fuel to the fire.

If you bought in at the peak... I'm sorry.

2 things changed this set for me. First being mwheelers pic of the mountain he had acquired. At first I thought the "hobby" cared about this set only to find out it was just a small group hoarding everything. That pic made me take a step back... told me the prices we were seeing were not sustainable. And the second was the obvious one everyone knows...Shore Griffey PR. That made everyone take a step back and soon prices just crashed.

People hate the Living Set comparison...but this set basically mimicked Living. First week had Judge and it sold well... Panik and Castellanos did ok. 2nd week Hoskins did OK...Happ and Markakis considerably less. Third week the prices of the first 2 weeks started to go up and Ohtani being in week 3 helped Bradley Jr and Martin have decent PRs... now week 1 and 2 started to go up more and people started to see the money possible and others jumped in seeing dollar signs. Fast forward to week 7... Shore Griffey... i mean Acuna was released and all hell broke loose. It had been a good 3-4 weeks for the first 2 weeks worth of cards to gain even more popularity as the PRs started to increase making Panik, Castellanos, Happ and Markakis THE cards to chase.... Week 6... Paul DeJong sold nearly 5,000.... DeJong!! making Markakis 2,678 even MORE popular. Week 7 Acuna... 46,809!! The first 3 weeks outsold the Acuna by 13,777... that was 9 cards that included Judge 13,256 and Ohtani 20,966. After Acuna... the PRs were 6-7000 per card. After Acuna the rest of the cards were barely above cost after release.

The difference for Project 2020 is 10 cards released each week compared to 3 for Living... after 3 weeks... 30 vs 9...50 vs 15 after 5 weeks... just meant more lower PR cards before the set took off.

Going forward the cards will likely be just above $20.... collect what you enjoy (full set, artist, player).... the investment others were hoping for is long gone.

[Mattsurewood]

Good Morning all--Been very busy working the past few days...

---Glad to see print runs normalizing a bit
---Good to see positive vibes/banter is dominant again
---Shipping seems to be speeding up, got my Cartoon Goodens yesterday
---Sorry to read about guys that lost a lot of $$, good to see they are taking it in stride
---Love the Clemente that ends today, wonder what the print run will be on it

[Mattsurewood]

You guys that think the "sky is falling" because of 10k print runs...TEN THOUSAND...that's a lot..I want to see it go down to 5k or less, that's when I think the cards will show "value" down the road. Just my opinion. Let "investors" catch on to these in a year or so, that's when values will go up (if that's what you are looking the cards to do). 40k-75k print runs just mean these will be in every Topps "Archives Retired" release for the next 10 years (for the players that are alive and signing).

Comparing these to pack pulled RCs of young superstars doesn't equate to me..yes, I am one who collects Acuna/Soto AND this set, but think about the checklist: Bob Gibson/Ted Williams/Koufax/Clemente...I would think VINTAGE guys may like this set more than the Acuna/Soto chasers, but that's just me.

I'm happy the artists are getting paid for the big print runs, but under 10k is A-O-K with me from a long-term collecting/value standpoint.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Today's 10k print runs are an absolute death toll for this set imo. We absolutely should be praying for sky high print runs as collectors or investors because that is the main thing that will hold the set up. INTEREST IN THE SET.

10k print runs to me also mean the hobby AT LARGE DOES NOT CARE about this set. There are 17.5k Acuna US250 in the PSA registry, 14k Soto US300, and 15.5k Luka prizm. Look at those values. These are base cards only, not counting any of the million parallels topps/panini are shipping out, only PSA meaning it doesn't account for raw or other grading companies, and ignores the fact that there are about 50 different products each year that have these guys with RC logos on them nowadays. I find it crazy people are claiming that a 10k print run on a P2020 card is too large and the hobby can't support it. Yet this ship is tanking as fast as any set I can remember. If you truly believe 10k print is too large and P2020 is appropriately priced currently, what does that say about the hobby at large and how painful the fall will be when the bubble bursts entirely? I'm actually in the camp that 10k should be viewed as a minuscule print run to the hobby

Ninja is right we've hit despair and if cards=stocks now is the time to be buying and buying big to dollar cost average but I just see no reason for a big jump up. We need something to happen to pump life back into the P2020 market. We need Gary V QE

Every time I get mail with these cards it just pisses me off. Love hate. Can't think of any set of cards released the last few years I'd take over these cards as a collector, but receiving packages with these cards just puts me in a bad mood for days on end given the dollar loss. Sorry for rant, received Grotesk Jeter today in the mail and in an awful mood all day

Yeah yeah hobby purists like thosebackpages (his youtube is great if you don't follow him btw) can flame me for thinking of set value and talk about how great the set is when you buy MSRP from topps I get it. But I'm sorry while I also miss the days on breaking a 16-box case of revolution or 24-box optic basketball retail case for like $800, no way do I want to go back to days of this hobby being a pure cost

We're all feelin' it, brother. It's therapeutic to talk things out.


It is quite a conundrum. On one hand, low PR's going forward only continue to devalue the earlier (low run) releases, as they no longer have any existing market advantage except being....released earlier.

On the other hand, high PR's on new releases, while maybe being beneficial towards the low PR early releases, scares the collective away (Shore Griffey) because people fear the dilution that occurs on each subsequent release, and PR's fall even more.

It's simply too big of a set which eventually leads to interest and financial exhaustion. Even at MSRP, it would cost someone nearly $8k to piece it all together 1 card at a time. I don't know of too many that have that kind of expendable income. Anything above msrp? Yikes.


Someone alluded to the idea of a Topps trade-in program. That would be gnarly. However, I don't think it would solve anything on the existing value front or cause a sudden surge in prices.

Gonna be a loooong, cold summer my friend. But we'll all get through this; together.

#fannyboiout

[pewe]

Originally Posted by mchenrycards

Let's talk in a few years then so I can cash in on your guaranty. There will be more than one sub-$20 card in this set and I will venture a guess we will see fire sales likely before the two year time frame is up in which 20% or more of the issued cards in this set will be below the issue price. It is good old economics of supply and demand. I am predicting the demand will wane in two years causing an excess of product and thus, reduced prices for cards that were not as well received or had higher print runs.

Someone earlier mentioned this played out very similar to eTopps cards from early 2000s (ie tons of energy/excitement, prices skyrocketed, lots of flippers and “buyer groups” that participated)... I guess that is one historic example to look at for an indication... how many of those are still selling for more than their issue price?


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[Kobe101]

Originally Posted by mudflap02

So I’m in the boat of collecting the full 400 card set. There are earlier cards I’m missing. I’ve picked up a few in the last 2 weeks thinking they were deals, but the prices continue to fall.

I can’t help but think there are more than a few like me. Every day I feel like bottom is hit, but nope. Once that bottom does get hit and people feel like it’s ok to buy without losing your shirt, I think they will steadily climb up. These are getting locked into collections now, but for cards with sub 1500 print runs, how many collections can there be?

I am in the same boat.... picked up four of my favorites off eBay and all four are down 10-20% in a few days.

Now i am hesitant to pull the trigger!

I think if you are going to buy ones on the secondary market wait until they are in hand for about a week.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by dio

Artist alive - not worth much
Artiste dead - price went crazy

History taught us this.

I’m not sure this is exactly how it plays out... most artists that are collectible after death were also very famous when alive (exceptions: Van Gogh is probably the poster boy for only fame after death).

Can prices get a “death bump”... sure, although a portion of that is galleries using their death to drive more interest.

For real serious art, it focuses on important times of an artists life, how those pieces fit together in an evolving aesthetic, and which pieces are considered masterworks. Those can be appreciated (with high $$ prices) during and after an artist’s life.

Can art of long dead artists continue to appreciate? Sure! As new people join the art world, and NEED a Dahli, it increases the total demand over time. Not usually because an artist has seen some resurgence in interest, but more because the new collectors are now competing with prior collections (eg museum) and collectors. There are a finite set of works, so prices trend up.


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[okumeister]

I posted Ben Baller Ichiro artist autograph last time, but also got Ermsy Gooden signed by Doc back at the same time.



However
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
just to find out that he signed on the freakin one touch instead of the card itself!!



In fact, I had a post-it on the team bag specifically asking to "open the case and sign on the actual card", but that may have somehow thrown them off and made Doc sign on the case instead... I don't know...
Though, looking at it several times now, it actually doesn't look too bad on the case either. I may save the complaining to the company who put the event together and just keep the card/one touch as it is.

#collectfail

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

We're all feelin' it, brother. It's therapeutic to talk things out.


It is quite a conundrum. On one hand, low PR's going forward only continue to devalue the earlier (low run) releases, as they no longer have any existing market advantage except being....released earlier.

On the other hand, high PR's on new releases, while maybe being beneficial towards the low PR early releases, scares the collective away (Shore Griffey) because people fear the dilution that occurs on each subsequent release, and PR's fall even more.

It's simply too big of a set which eventually leads to interest and financial exhaustion. Even at MSRP, it would cost someone nearly $8k to piece it all together 1 card at a time. I don't know of too many that have that kind of expendable income. Anything above msrp? Yikes.


Someone alluded to the idea of a Topps trade-in program. That would be gnarly. However, I don't think it would solve anything on the existing value front or cause a sudden surge in prices.

Gonna be a loooong, cold summer my friend. But we'll all get through this; together.

#fannyboiout

Good post.

Since my cup is half full, I see it like this...

- High PRs going forward make early low PRs look good.
- Low PRs going forward make the newly released low PR cards look good.

- At only 400 cards, the set is far from too big. And displayed correctly, it will look amazing compared to displaying the 700-card yearly sets of baseball.
- There are forty different 20-card sets in this 400-card product. (I love math). Many people won’t feel the need to put 400 cards together. They will put groups of 20 together, and those groups will look and feel relevant.

- People can hardly make it through the weekends now with no new cards releasing until Monday. Since when did weekends seem to go slower than weekdays? I only see Winter being long and cold after December 31st...when the last card of P2020 is scheduled to drop and people long for more.
- P2020 is a brand new concept in many ways. We try hard to compare it to other products, but it’s tough to do if we’re being honest with ourselves. Even Sapphire took some time to go through the roof. (I know, bad comparison).

[oldgoldy97]

Wait...people thought this was a get rich quick opportunity?

Lol. Buy what you like.

Now back to our normal programming.

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by pewe

Someone earlier mentioned this played out very similar to eTopps cards from early 2000s (ie tons of energy/excitement, prices skyrocketed, lots of flippers and “buyer groups” that participated)... I guess that is one historic example to look at for an indication... how many of those are still selling for more than their issue price?


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- Did it take weeks or years for eTopps to spike and then fall?

- How many unique eTopps cards are there? More than 400?

- Who were the artists that created eTopps cards?

- How many P2020 players won’t make the HOF compared to non-HOF eTopps players?

Believe it or not, I too like comparing P2020 to eTopps. I still like eTopps cards and have an extensive collection of them including the complete set containing Trout’s RC card, QB autos, Presidents, and nearly everything in between. However, P2020 is not eTopps. Will it prove to follow the same path?...I don’t think so.

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by pewe

I’m not sure this is exactly how it plays out... most artists that are collectible after death were also very famous when alive (exceptions: Van Gogh is probably the poster boy for only fame after death).

Can prices get a “death bump”... sure, although a portion of that is galleries using their death to drive more interest.

For real serious art, it focuses on important times of an artists life, how those pieces fit together in an evolving aesthetic, and which pieces are considered masterworks. Those can be appreciated (with high $$ prices) during and after an artist’s life.

Can art of long dead artists continue to appreciate? Sure! As new people join the art world, and NEED a Dahli, it increases the total demand over time. Not usually because an artist has seen some resurgence in interest, but more because the new collectors are now competing with prior collections (eg museum) and collectors. There are a finite set of works, so prices trend up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I enjoy seeing hammers hit nails squarely.

If the P2020 artists include current events into P2020 cards, the year 2020 alone will mark this set as one for the history books.

PLEASE artists...take note and enjoy the fame.

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

I enjoy seeing hammers hit nails squarely.

If the P2020 artists include current events into P2020 cards, the year 2020 alone will mark this set as one for the history books.

PLEASE artists...take note and enjoy the fame.

Amen. Agree. +1. And all that jazz.

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by okumeister

I posted Ben Baller Ichiro artist autograph last time, but also got Ermsy Gooden signed by Doc back at the same time.



However
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
just to find out that he signed on the freakin one touch instead of the card itself!!



In fact, I had a post-it on the team bag specifically asking to "open the case and sign on the actual card", but that may have somehow thrown them off and made Doc sign on the case instead... I don't know...
Though, looking at it several times now, it actually doesn't look too bad on the case either. I may save the complaining to the company who put the event together and just keep the card/one touch as it is.

#collectfail

Dang...I saw your first picture and was like, “Man that looks good! I want one.”

It still looks good, and for what it’s worth, you found a way to increase the value of a one-touch. You now have a good, unique story to go along with the card. I wouldn’t be too disappointed.

[MCyganik]

As long as the autograph isn’t smudged it’s kind of a fun concept. You could now essentially put any Gooden card in the holder and it’s automatically “autographed”. Swap it out every now and then and you’ve got a new display haha

Originally Posted by okumeister

I posted Ben Baller Ichiro artist autograph last time, but also got Ermsy Gooden signed by Doc back at the same time.



However
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
just to find out that he signed on the freakin one touch instead of the card itself!!



In fact, I had a post-it on the team bag specifically asking to "open the case and sign on the actual card", but that may have somehow thrown them off and made Doc sign on the case instead... I don't know...
Though, looking at it several times now, it actually doesn't look too bad on the case either. I may save the complaining to the company who put the event together and just keep the card/one touch as it is.

#collectfail

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Mattsurewood

Good Morning all--Been very busy working the past few days...

---Glad to see print runs normalizing a bit
---Good to see positive vibes/banter is dominant again
---Shipping seems to be speeding up, got my Cartoon Goodens yesterday
---Sorry to read about guys that lost a lot of $$, good to see they are taking it in stride
---Love the Clemente that ends today, wonder what the print run will be on it

I just have to add that play happened with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning of a tie game in the World Series. It was a routine play for Clemente that few others would have made.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

Good post.

Since my cup is half full, I see it like this...

- High PRs going forward make early low PRs look good.
- Low PRs going forward make the newly released low PR cards look good.

- At only 400 cards, the set is far from too big. And displayed correctly, it will look amazing compared to displaying the 700-card yearly sets of baseball.
- There are forty different 20-card sets in this 400-card product. (I love math). Many people won’t feel the need to put 400 cards together. They will put groups of 20 together, and those groups will look and feel relevant.

- People can hardly make it through the weekends now with no new cards releasing until Monday. Since when did weekends seem to go slower than weekdays? I only see Winter being long and cold after December 31st...when the last card of P2020 is scheduled to drop and people long for more.
- P2020 is a brand new concept in many ways. We try hard to compare it to other products, but it’s tough to do if we’re being honest with ourselves. Even Sapphire took some time to go through the roof. (I know, bad comparison).

Pack pulled cards will always be greater than print on demand.

Those early cards will always have value over MSRP because people weren’t on the set at the time. The car is out of the bag and now the majority of people who would want the cards know about the set and would just buy at MSRP if they want the cards. 75-80% of the cards at a minimum will have no long term secondary market value. Regardless if it’s in complete set form (400 cards) or artist set form (20 cards).

I agree that the concept of the set is a lot cooler than previous print on demand sets, but the way to acquire the set is the same. The market dynamics are the same. There’s a reason why all the print on demand sets can be snagged in set form below MSRP even when the early cards are valued above MSRP. The 80% brings down the 20% when you go to sell together.

Wheeler, are you still buying the new releases in bulk like you did the early ones?

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rats60

I just have to add that play happened with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning of a tie game in the World Series. It was a routine play for Clemente that few others would have made.

For someone with no arm, it amazes me that someone can throw a ball that far on the fly.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

- Did it take weeks or years for eTopps to spike and then fall?

- How many unique eTopps cards are there? More than 400?

- Who were the artists that created eTopps cards?

- How many P2020 players won’t make the HOF compared to non-HOF eTopps players?

Believe it or not, I too like comparing P2020 to eTopps. I still like eTopps cards and have an extensive collection of them including the complete set containing Trout’s RC card, QB autos, Presidents, and nearly everything in between. However, P2020 is not eTopps. Will it prove to follow the same path?...I don’t think so.

Because I wasn’t collecting back then, and don’t know the back story well, I can not answer your questions. But I assume they were rhetorical, anyway.

I’d love to hear the history and get your perspective on what seems similar vs. different


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[55Lincecum]

Originally Posted by okumeister

I posted Ben Baller Ichiro artist autograph last time, but also got Ermsy Gooden signed by Doc back at the same time.



However
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
just to find out that he signed on the freakin one touch instead of the card itself!!



In fact, I had a post-it on the team bag specifically asking to "open the case and sign on the actual card", but that may have somehow thrown them off and made Doc sign on the case instead... I don't know...
Though, looking at it several times now, it actually doesn't look too bad on the case either. I may save the complaining to the company who put the event together and just keep the card/one touch as it is.

#collectfail

Did you ask for the “gold” pen to be used?

[JRX]

Today's prediction: Whatever the print run is, one group will declare it the death knell for the set, the other will declare it great for the set.