Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[BurnerNotify]

Originally Posted by RickeyHenderson

You actually made me stop, think some and decide to sell one a day roughly to go through my inventory and get out of the red. Thank you!

Bottom line is we have no idea the market size for this. Most of us are putting it in terms of what we are experts/familiar with...cardboard sports world. We know it is more but have no clue what that means or looks like, uncharted territory. Thus we frame things with card collecting in mind when we should run models based on anticipated market size, what groups of people are entering market and what their average purchase price is.

For instance, we say, "No way you can make money on a 40k PR". The simple answer is; absolutely correct BUT based on current market size. Not what is anticipated and then realized. If 100k people come into this looking to get cards, that PR changes in importance.

I feel these are the most important factors when trying to find when a market correction will happen and/or a falling out of the bottom along with baseline floor for each card;

1. Market size
2. Definition of buyer groups (street art purchasers, sneaker beasts, card collectors/investors, buying groups, Ballers, etc)
3. Avg purchase price of above groups
4. Ranking of most important characteristics of why someone purchases (PR, player, artist, media on specific cards, etc)
5. Risk tolerance of above defined groups
6. Size of collectors/hoarders

You have to make assumptions on the above but can also research to make more informed assumptions....then build your prediction models. Use these to create strike points for selling, buying, etc.

Just my two cents

Nice analysis...sounds like an interesting case study in business school. But like someone else said, “we ain’t got time for dat”. LOL.

[Prox3]

I feel a Blake Mattingly run coming. The March to $1,000 is taking a breather around $400, but sales are starting to pick up.

[JRX]

The key will be what will the print runs be this week, if they start climbing to 50k, anyone looking to make a boatload off future releases will be stuck with cards at or near MSRP. The older stuff with the lower print runs will most likely retain their value given scarcity, but buyers will probably get more selective as we get to 200, 300, 400 cards etc.

[justin80]

Originally Posted by Prox3

I feel a Blake Mattingly run coming. The March to $1,000 is taking a breather around $400, but sales are starting to pick up.

Grab ‘em!

[cavsfan70]

Got a Baller Gooden/Rochester right as time expired.

Sold 2 Baller Trout's at $50... one more and I've broke even.

BALLIN

[hpatel1089]

How do you figure out the true sale price of this: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Topps-PROJE...AAAOSwxfheg7le

Thanks!

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by cavsfan70

Got a Baller Gooden/Rochester right as time expired.

Sold 2 Baller Trout's at $50... one more and I've broke even.

BALLIN

NICE!

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by JRX

The key will be what will the print runs be this week, if they start climbing to 50k, anyone looking to make a boatload off future releases will be stuck with cards at or near MSRP. The older stuff with the lower print runs will most likely retain their value given scarcity, but buyers will probably get more selective as we get to 200, 300, 400 cards etc.

Not to be a dick but earlier versions of you have been saying this with 3k instead of 50k, 5k instead of 50k, 10k instead of 50k...

Go back to the Baller Trout print run announcement in this thread.

People were posting 'good luck dumping all those Trouts once people get them in hand'.

[seabass97166]

Has anybody sold or bought something on eBay and had customer ask if they can come pick up in person?
Looks like I made a lot of purchases ($2250!) from somebody 20 minutes away. Almost feel like asking if I can come pick up.

Saves them shipping.

Also, I noticed I wasn't charged sales tax, will that true itself up?

[The Accountant]

There's a couple cards I want to call out in particular but waiting for my tracking to get uploaded

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by hpatel1089

How do you figure out the true sale price of this: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Topps-PROJE...AAAOSwxfheg7le

Thanks!

$630

274375173611

https://130point.com/sales/


Item Title: Topps PROJECT 2020 Card 9 - 1954 Ted Williams JK5 Boston Red Sox ART PR: 1,384
Sale Price: 999.99 USD
Best Offer Accepted Price: 630.00 USD
Sale Date: Sat 23 May 2020 09:23 PM

[angstagangsta]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

Has anybody sold or bought something ebay and had customer pick up in person?
Looks like I made a lot of purchases ($2250!) from somebody 20 minutes away. Almost feel like asking if I can come pick up.

I actually just did that with one of the members on blowout this morning! Great experience and super fun getting to talk shop!

[psochaps]

Originally Posted by hpatel1089

How do you figure out the true sale price of this: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Topps-PROJE...AAAOSwxfheg7le

Thanks!

$630 on flippertools

[BurnerNotify]

Best value under $400 is Jk5’s Ichiro. I slept on this card because I thought JK’s stuff was strange. After taking a closer look I think it’s brilliant and the red ball/sun just pops with the black and white lines. So much detail in this card that you could look at it for hours. PR is only 1.7k (just a handful more than BALLER’s version) and it’s Ichiro for goodness sakes.

[Bob Ross]

All Baller Trout completed listings the last hour: over $60 shipped.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

Has anybody sold or bought something on eBay and had customer ask if they can come pick up in person?
Looks like I made a lot of purchases ($2250!) from somebody 20 minutes away. Almost feel like asking if I can come pick up.

Saves them shipping.

Also, I noticed I wasn't charged sales tax, will that true itself up?

Up to you. Me personally, I prefer to do the transaction with shipping if going through ebay. You could always ask to meet in person and then pay off of ebay though.

[Prox3]

Originally Posted by justin80

Grab ‘em!

I did grab a couple.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by BurnerNotify

Best value under $400 is Jk5’s Ichiro. I slept on this card because I thought JK’s stuff was strange. After taking a closer look I think it’s brilliant and the red ball/sun just pops with the black and white lines. So much detail in this card that you could look at it for hours. PR is only 1.7k (just a handful more than BALLER’s version) and it’s Ichiro for goodness sakes.

Yeah, I wish I got in on that one earlier

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by JRX

The key will be what will the print runs be this week, if they start climbing to 50k, anyone looking to make a boatload off future releases will be stuck with cards at or near MSRP. The older stuff with the lower print runs will most likely retain their value given scarcity, but buyers will probably get more selective as we get to 200, 300, 400 cards etc.

This will happen. Then the part time flippers will lose interest, unload what they have for 2x msrp, future print runs will fall down to current levels, prices will go back up, and they'll come back and try it again. Rinse and repeat until this is all over.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by Prox3

I feel a Blake Mattingly run coming. The March to $1,000 is taking a breather around $400, but sales are starting to pick up.

will be a top 20 card when its all said and done

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Silas Barnaby

Not to be a dick but earlier versions of you have been saying this with 3k instead of 50k, 5k instead of 50k, 10k instead of 50k...

Go back to the Baller Trout print run announcement in this thread.

People were posting 'good luck dumping all those Trouts once people get them in-hand'.

Well I still think its true. Right now if every card had a 34K print run, these would be a dime a dozen. Would we all be buying them up at $50?

[whoshotjr]

I'm just collecting the Hendersons, and cringed at paying $170 for the one I missed (Vides). That was just 10 days ago, now they are $600+. WTF.

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[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

Has anybody sold or bought something on eBay and had customer ask if they can come pick up in person?
Looks like I made a lot of purchases ($2250!) from somebody 20 minutes away. Almost feel like asking if I can come pick up.

Saves them shipping.

Also, I noticed I wasn't charged sales tax, will that true itself up?

It doesn’t hurt to ask. The seller might even give a cash discount.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by thenightman

This will happen. Then the part time flippers will lose interest, unload what they have for 2x msrp, future print runs will fall down to current levels, prices will go back up, and they'll come back and try it again. Rinse and repeat until this is all over.

offloading at x2 msrp is going to scare people off? lmao

[ZiggySQ]

Originally Posted by JRX

Well I still think its true. Right now if every card had a 34K print run, these would be a dime a dozen. Would we all be buying them up at $50?

No. Like you said, as more cards are released and stockpiled it will get watered down. It’s just a matter of time.


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