Corona Virus

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Thats Pejc, you hit exactly where I was going with that.

Trix--you realize serious cases and deaths are stabilized. I can't believe how many of you hard left guys are ignoring that. Those 'cute graphs' were projecting us at 800 deaths today....just FYI. Were not even at half of that total!

When we were running 500 test a day a week ago, and were running 500,000 a day today. Cases are going to skyrocket.

97% negative test rate across the us. Then the 3% positive--98% of those show low to mild symptoms.

I'm not really sure how any of that helps with hospitals that are overrun with those "low" numbers

[charnick]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

So you have contradicted yourself a bit in all that.

In terms of beds, ventilators. Serious and Critical cases have leveled over the past few days. Something that has not happen in any country so far. There was a report about a NYC hospital being out of Ventilators.....they had.....11...total.

In terms of the 'I just care about human life arguement'---this has been covered 100 times in this thread. Estimated, as the country closes, will be about 40 million people out of work with out a paycheck. For approximately 10 million that will be life altering. 300 Lives currently over 10 million going into financial ruin.

Ill put your thought process into numbers for you

300>10,000,000

You might not care about human life as much as you claim.

Brother, believe me I know how hard this has hit folks in the wallet. I KNOW IT. I'm a creative in the entertainment industry and me and my friends are getting HAMMERED. But to me, to them, to my loved ones, being alive right now is better than being broke.

I perfectly illustrated how you have you head in the sand by underestimating the power of this virus, and you ignore it at your own peril.

It looks so small right now, and I hope within the next week or so you open your eyes. This will pass (the social aspects), but if one you downplayers kills someone near and dear to me because you think it's not a big deal, I won't be so polite.

ETA: removing my personal story because it's none of your business. Wash your damn hands, I'm out this shitshow.

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by zonacats8

The reality is that we're probably all looking at this the wrong way.

We probably should be looking at the US as Europe and then breaking it down by States to Countries as the populations and density ratios are probably much closer.

So the US is Europe, New York is Italy, California is France, Illinois (due to Chicago) could be Spain, etc. (no research in comparing the states to the countries, they were purely for example purposes).

Early on I agreed with you about the need to flatten curve, and still do.

But some of the stuff you are posting to skew statistics and not factually based is dangerous.

New York has 11k cases and 53 deaths. What did Italy have death wise at 11k cases? I believe around 800.

[trixstar]

Today's numbers:
Italy: +6557 (13.9% Growth rate)
USA: +4835 (24.9% Growth rate)






Italy numbers are in that weird spot where we have more total cases today than ever, but a lower growth rate than yesterday.

USA: The growth rate declined from an absolutely insane level yesterday to a merely horrible one today

The 'catch' here is that we saw a large number of cases reported in the USA after GMT +0, which is when we 'start the new day'. Tomorrow's numbers may be just awful.

Oh, and we almost lost another full day to the Italian chart. Not quite there, but I marked it anyway. We are six days behind now.

Started a new chart today, listing the countries with more than 3000 cases reported and with deaths as well as recoveries.

I've also included a per capita number, alongside the number of ICU beds in each country. A worthwhile study would be if you could track the expected deaths to the availability of ICU beds.

The USA has a lot of ICU beds, but as we discussed yesterday in the exponential story, all it does is buy you time.

Thank you all for follows and replies - I hope this is helpful to you in understanding the situation we are in.

You can see this from @RealFrankJ whos a data center specialist with Cisco

[trixstar]

You can also see how flattening the curve works with these two locations in Italy

Lodi had the first Covid-19 case in Italy, and implemented a shutdown on Feb 23. Bergamo waited until March 8.



Guess where everyone is dying.

[quackhead]

Not sure if this has been posted

[trixstar]

https://twitter.com/berkeleybrett/st...419060224?s=21


US confirmed deaths are still doubling every 3 days


https://twitter.com/samwangphd/statu...912317960?s=21


Bookmark this. When the doubling time of deaths* gets above 3 days, we will have begun to get past the runaway period of the pandemic.

Note the current doubling times for China (35 days) & South Korea (12 days).

*not cases, which can be underdiagnosed


Here's why you should track deaths per day. Death by coronavirus is unmistakable, & occurs by sudden respiratory distress. Easily identified.

Cases are distorted because testing is still coming online. Increasing caseloads can demonstrate spread - or effective medical response.

[Dbacksbaseball]

And Trix is back to cases. If I go back far enough in this thread Trix...I might even be able to quote you saying don't worry about cases.

Again cases were always going to rise rapidly once test got properly distributed. EVERYONE agreed on this.

Again...Deaths and Critical. And some of the numbers you are posting are wrong. 80ish confirmed deaths today. Be careful quoting twitter graphs from uncomfirmed sources.

Were 10 days behind Italy. For us to be as bad or worse......we would have to be around 220000 cases, and 25k deaths. If we are at that on March 31st I will say I was wrong on this.

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Early on I agreed with you about the need to flatten curve, and still do.

But some of the stuff you are posting to skew statistics and not factually based is dangerous.

New York has 11k cases and 53 deaths. What did Italy have death wise at 11k cases? I believe around 800.

Looks like they went from about 10,000 to 12,500 from one day to the next and about 630 to 830 deaths on those days, so somewhere in the 700 range likely.

But as I said in here a little while ago, the key factor is when their hospitals were overrun and ran out of open beds and ventilators and had to make decisions on who didn't get the medical needs to try and fight it. As NYC hasn't hit that point yet, but Italy very well may have hit that point before they hit that number of known cases which then drove up the death toll.

Which has been my argument from the start as well, it's about keeping it manageable for the hospitals by flattening the curve.

To more accurately figure out a good comparison between New York and Italy would actually take a lot more research and breaking it down by region. Since in reality Italy as a whole isn't dealing with the overrun hospitals, it's more the Northern region of the country that is having the issues. Just like it won't be the entire state of New York that might be facing those problems in a week or two, but the area around NYC.

So really it would need to look at populations of NYC area vs Northern Italy, then look at the density of those areas, then look at the cases in just those areas, then things such as hospital beds, ICU beds, Ventilators, and then even look at things like age demographics as well.

I believe around 80% of New York's cases are in the NYC area. I honestly do not know the percentage of Italy's cases in the Northern region, but that's really the numbers that would be looked at to get a good comparison there.

Because for example (and just using simple numbers for an example)...

If both NYC and Northern Italy have 100 people, and in the same area NYC has 10 ICU beds and 10 Ventilators but Italy only has 7 and 7, yes, they would be overrun before NYC would. So it would take longer for a place like NYC to turn into Italy, but once you reach that tipping point, that's when it would become very dangerous.

I think it's a safe assumption to make that NYC would have more ICU beds and Ventilators in comparison, we're a bit more advanced here, but once you reach the tipping point, that advantage no longer matters.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by trixstar

You can also see how flattening the curve works with these two locations in Italy

Lodi had the first Covid-19 case in Italy, and implemented a shutdown on Feb 23. Bergamo waited until March 8.

Guess where everyone is dying.

Socialized medicine is like magic. They can make hospitals, disappear!

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

And Trix is back to cases. If I go back far enough in this thread Trix...I might even be able to quote you saying don't worry about cases.

Again cases were always going to rise rapidly once test got properly distributed. EVERYONE agreed on this.

Again...Deaths and Critical. And some of the numbers you are posting are wrong. 80ish confirmed deaths today. Be careful quoting twitter graphs from uncomfirmed sources.

Were 10 days behind Italy. For us to be as bad or worse......we would have to be around 220000 cases, and 25k deaths. If we are at that on March 31st I will say I was wrong on this.

The numbers are from


https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

I’m fine comparing multiple sources

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Socialized medicine is like magic. They can make hospitals, disappear!

That is a huge factor in Europes crisis. They will not turn people away who probably don't need to use up hospital resources unlike here. The result is delayed care for those in actual need.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by charnick

Brother, believe me I know how hard this has hit folks in the wallet. I KNOW IT. I'm a creative in the entertainment industry and me and my friends are getting HAMMERED. But to me, to them, to my loved ones, being alive right now is better than being broke.

I perfectly illustrated how you have you head in the sand by underestimating the power of this virus, and you ignore it at your own peril.

It looks so small right now, and I hope within the next week or so you open your eyes. This will pass (the social aspects), but if one you downplayers kills someone near and dear to me because you think it's not a big deal, I won't be so polite.

ETA: removing my personal story because it's none of your business. Wash your damn hands, I'm out this shitshow.

Everyone cares for there loved ones. But again 300 is not greater then 10M. If you care for thy neighbor, you would understand that.

Italy which is exploding with cases is still under 1000 infected per million.

Lets be aware, but lets not ruin the world. If that makes me the bad guy....so be it.

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Socialized medicine is like magic. They can make hospitals, disappear!

No doubt we’re better equipped and have better facilities. Socialized medicine imo doesn’t work and wouldn’t work in our country. I don’t recall ever calling for it but we can do better than we currently do. I’ve worked in healthcare for ten years. Medicare for all won’t work

[tennelson55]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Leave your political feelings at the door, and re-read my post. This is what supposedly trusted news outlets have said, and flip flopped on in the matter of 4 days.

One thing I learned this week, is to leave political feelings at the door. It helps you keep the crap off your shoes.

Fact (not opinion), is News outlets told us early this week to expect case counts to go up, but not to worry about that to keep an eye on death rate.

Death rate and critical cases have stabilized over the last four days (No other country has been able to stabilize for 4 days, this early in the process BTW), and now the media is back to pushing cases.

Thats a flat out contradiction in a 4 day period. I hate to tell you this means, objectively, they can't stick to the program.

I'm morbid, I don't think 30k lives (mostly sick or very old), is worth tens of millions out of work and a destroyed future for our youth---and were at 300 deaths right now. As my grandfather said to me this week on the phone. 'I'll be extra careful but I'm 83, I've lived a great life, if this is my ticket out, so be it.'

I quoted the wrong person
My fault.

As for the 30k lives; what about 2-4% of the entire world population dying?

I am actually in agreement that the entire world shouldn't stop for this 2-4% strickly off of impacting the world significantly to help this population. Sadly that's not an option here. The decision is made by the government.


My father is part of the 2-4% that probably dies, but everything in the world is stopping.
I went to Walmart today and the shelves (in Albany NY) are bare. No meat, no bread, no juice, no yogurt/dairy, no pasta, no mac n cheese. Like holy #@#@#@#@.

Not sure what comes in the upcoming months, but the government has this planned out. We are along for the ride and the sooner we listen to them and do what they want we will be able to move on.

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Everyone cares for there loved ones. But again 300 is not greater then 10M. If you care for thy neighbor, you would understand that.

Italy which is exploding with cases is still under 1000 infected per million.

Lets be aware, but lets not ruin the world. If that makes me the bad guy....so be it.

I agree that there’s a panic that’s set in that is going to globally reset economics as we know it. No doubt this could have been handled a million times better.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by trixstar

The numbers are from


https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

I’m fine comparing multiple sources

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ disagrees and is the source widely quoted for those 'cute graphs'.

But again....if thats what you chose to defend so be it. You have hammered the Italy/US comparison. 220k 25k Deaths in 10 days. That would mean even with available testing numbers would need to go absolutely insane. Were talking an average of 20k cases per day, 2,450 deaths per day.

By all means, take your stance, but thats logically a tall order and I'm not even saying we don't get a day or two in the near future of 20k cases.

[TheHeel]

Geez

Msnbc stating NY Times reporting that MSG and/or Jacob Javits may become overflow hospitals set up by military.

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by TheHeel

Geez

Msnbc stating NY Times reporting that MSG and/or Jacob Javits may become overflow hospitals set up by military.

I’m guessing the Knicks and Rangers aren’t coming back anytime soon

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

I’m guessing the Knicks and Rangers aren’t coming back anytime soon

I don't see any major sport coming back anytime soon unfortunately.

The NBA recently told it's teams they think mid-July is a best case scenario (I think that's what I saw)

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by tennelson55

I quoted the wrong person
My fault.

As for the 30k lives; what about 2-4% of the entire world population dying?

I am actually in agreement that the entire world shouldn't stop for this 2-4% strickly off of impacting the world significantly to help this population. Sadly that's not an option here. The decision is made by the government.


My father is part of the 2-4% that probably dies, but everything in the world is stopping.
I went to Walmart today and the shelves (in Albany NY) are bare. No meat, no bread, no juice, no yogurt/dairy, no pasta, no mac n cheese. Like holy #@#@#@#@.

Not sure what comes in the upcoming months, but the government has this planned out. We are along for the ride and the sooner we listen to them and do what they want we will be able to move on.

Listen we all have loved ones that we go 'Oh #@#@#@#@' high risk. My grandfather is one of the people I respect most in this world. He's at risk at 83. I'm going to be pretty upset when he moves on.

I'm not inhumane to this, but older people are going to die, they don't live forever. Sick people are going to die. Thats life. You or I could be diagnosed with something serious and be gone 2 months from now. Thats just....life.

For the record, most think as testing continues we get to below 1%.

Is CV Shitty, sure. Should we take it seriously. Sure. Should we blow up the world because it, take away freedoms, and ruin the economy. No.

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ disagrees and is the source widely quoted for those 'cute graphs'.

But again....if thats what you chose to defend so be it. You have hammered the Italy/US comparison. 220k 25k Deaths in 10 days. That would mean even with available testing numbers would need to go absolutely insane. Were talking an average of 20k cases per day, 2,450 deaths per day.

By all means, take your stance, but thats logically a tall order and I'm not even saying we don't get a day or two in the near future of 20k cases.

I don’t recall saying we were going to have the same percentage of deaths that Italy has. We’re doubling our deaths every 3 days. You can’t even compare deaths within our own states much less to Italy. Washington has a high % of deaths because it started in a retirement home. NYC is going to stand out more than most obvious. We obviously have better facilities and more ICU beds which will result in lower deaths. That doesn’t mean our hospital aren’t already overran. My co workers are literally sewing masks together all weekend for our hospitals that are out of equipment. That’s what I’m trying to focus on. Hospitals are out of equipment. Things can and will get worse but that still doesn’t mean we’ll have as many deaths as Italy. It also doesn’t make it acceptable.

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by zonacats8

I don't see any major sport coming back anytime soon unfortunately.

The NBA recently told it's teams they think mid-July is a best case scenario (I think that's what I saw)

Maybe even longer then that. Like the Saints with the Superdome

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

Maybe even longer then that. Like the Saints with the Superdome

Well if I remember correctly, the year they used the Superdome for housing people the Saints played in Houston.

Which is why I'd be surprised if they use MSG for things like this.

Although there is a chance lots of games get played in non-NBA arenas when they first come back as they might play without fans, and if they do, might move it to practice facilities or small college arenas.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by trixstar

I don’t recall saying we were going to have the same percentage of deaths that Italy has. We’re doubling our deaths every 3 days. You can’t even compare deaths within our own states much less to Italy. Washington has a high % of deaths because it started in a retirement home. NYC is going to stand out more than most obvious. We obviously have better facilities and more ICU beds which will result in lower deaths. That doesn’t mean our hospital aren’t already overran. My co workers are literally sewing masks together all weekend for our hospitals that are out of equipment. That’s what I’m trying to focus on. Hospitals are out of equipment. Things can and will get worse but that still doesn’t mean we’ll have as many deaths as Italy. It also doesn’t make it acceptable.

I agree with you the numbers will get worse before they get better. But again, where is the line between ruining the world as we know it, and saving 1% of everyone who catches it before it dies out (which is a real possibility we have seen in the past), or runs its corse. The whole topic is polarizing and morbid. It's what keeps us coming back to this thread.