Corona Virus

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

They locked down their city, forcibly quarantined those outside, welded doors shut in apartment buildings. They’re under an authoritarian regime so have actual consequences for those that fall out of line.

In the US we don’t really do that.

So the difference is going to literally be hundreds of millions? Come on.

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Where do you come up with this stuff?

Care to share ANY REFERENCE you can find that says this virus can take up to 8 weeks to kill you?

I can try to look, but I know for a fact I've seen stats that said the average time till death was something like 8 or 9 days after symptoms first showed up (which of course can be 2 weeks after contracting it) but some people survive up to 8 weeks before dying.

The problem is finding these things after you read them, almost every article about the virus has "dead" or "death" or something in it, so finding them with searches after the fact is hard.

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by zonacats8

I can try to look, but I know for a fact I've seen stats that said the average time till death was something like 8 or 9 days after symptoms first showed up (which of course can be 2 weeks after contracting it) but some people survive up to 8 weeks before dying.

Serious question, is the anxiety of this all getting to you? Think about your mental health as it can have consequences on your immune system.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by zonacats8

I can try to look, but I know for a fact I've seen stats that said the average time till death was something like 8 or 9 days after symptoms first showed up (which of course can be 2 weeks after contracting it) but some people survive up to 8 weeks before dying.

Good. Look it up.

[kerg]

Originally Posted by yanksfan1

All those spring breakers are now heading back to their homes, some undoubtedly bringing COVID-19 with them

Ain't the only disease some of em' are bringing back.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

So the difference is going to literally be hundreds of millions? Come on.

You asked “why hasn’t China”, so I told why. City on lockdown for 6 weeks (and a real lockdown, not what we have here).

Now every situation is different, but yes with the R0 being between 2-2.5 it’s not tough to see where this virus goes if left to it’s own devices. There’s no way to stop the spread at this point other than isolating.

Will we hit 9 figures? No clue?

Would we hit 9 figures in the 18-24 months it would reportedly take for some type of vaccine if we didn’t take drastic measures? Every simulation says so.

In order for you NOT to think it’s possible, the only leg you’d have to stand on is that the R0 is incorrect, which I haven’t seen a single person debate.

[Soxfanguy]

2 trillion dollars I like it

Pass it

[kerg]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

2 trillion dollars I like it

Pass it

[bustsomewax]

Why has possibility of virus mutating and becoming less efficient not been considered?

If people are saying only 10% of people currently with the virus have been tested, and our deaths are around 300, wouldn't that led you to believe a mutation has occurred?

[yanksfan1]

why not 3 trillion?

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Good. Look it up.

Can't find anything on it right now and I'm not spending hours reading through hundreds of articles to find the ones that might talk about it. It's just impossible to find something that specific quickly without getting lucky given how many articles are out there on the virus right now.

Look, I have no reason to make that up, I know you don't like me and disagree with my views on the virus, but I'm being 100% honest and serious that I either read in an article or saw in a TV report that the average time from symptoms to death was I think like 8.5 days (it was 8.something), but some people have gone up to 8 weeks with it before passing away.

Obviously if the average is just over a week, not many go that long.

But my point with that post was that the massive spread of the virus was likely taking place around 7-10 days ago. Which means those people are likely just now showing symptoms, thus leading to me saying I think the next 2-3 weeks will be very interesting to see where the numbers, deaths in particular, will be something to watch to really see how well we're doing.

And again, as I've said the whole time, the people who are dying right now from the virus are people who unfortunately would have passed away no matter what happens. It's always been about keeping the hospitals from running out of beds and ventilators like in Italy and needing doctors to choose who even gets a chance at survival.

And since we're thankfully not there yet, yes, I do think our death rates will be lower right now, and I hope it stays that way. Everything I've argued about over the past week or so has been about the flattening the curve theory to keep that from happening.

[ilovethelakings]

I wish I were in Mexico or Costa Rica right now. Being cooped up is really starting to get to me.

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Let's hear your predictions.

60k cases by Friday I would say is on the low end. Wouldn't be surprised if the number dead doubled.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

They locked down their city, forcibly quarantined those outside, welded doors shut in apartment buildings. They’re under an authoritarian regime so have actual consequences for those that fall out of line.

In the US we don’t really do that.

Originally Posted by zonacats8

Can't find anything on it right now and I'm not spending hours reading through hundreds of articles to find the ones that might talk about it. It's just impossible to find something that specific quickly without getting lucky given how many articles are out there on the virus right now.

Look, I have no reason to make that up, I know you don't like me and disagree with my views on the virus, but I'm being 100% honest and serious that I either read in an article or saw in a TV report that the average time from symptoms to death was I think like 8.5 days (it was 8.something), but some people have gone up to 8 weeks with it before passing away.

Guy, I don't have feelings for you.

I do care about making your case based on facts and opinions; clearly labeled. You can't enter facts that don't exist. And that one stands out as crazy (because it is).

Say something as fact, back it up. That simple.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Guy, I don't have feelings for you.

I do care about making your case based on facts and opinions; clearly labeled. You can't enter facts that don't exist. And that one stands out as crazy (because it is).

Say something as fact, back it up. That simple.

Why was I quoted? No feelings????

[preakness]

Zonacats is fake news

B1G hoops is better than PAC hoops btw

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Why was I quoted? No feelings????

Yea I got lost. I just noticed that ... was gonna go the China route, but then zona started talkin' about feelings and I just lost my bearings.

Sorry. No feelings.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by trixstar

60k cases by Friday I would say is on the low end. Wouldn't be surprised if the number dead doubled.

So, like 550 people dead? Is that a big deal? Is that “going To get ugly?” In your eyes? Serious question.

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by pejc300

So, like 550 people dead? Is that a big deal? Is that “going To get ugly?” In your eyes? Serious question.

I'm more worried about the hospitals being overrun tbh. People don't have to die at some god awful rate for this to be ugly. Take a look at the situation in NYC right now. Hospitals are already at the point they cannot afford to even stay open due to having to cancel or postpone every surgery that's not life threatening. Doctors have run out of PPE, they're out of beds, out of ventilators etc etc

I mean that's the entire point of trying to bend the curve, or do people think they're just making cute graphs?

[mjones6]

We have roughly 5x the population of Spain.

We also have roughly 30x the land area.

Some folks are running some VERY simple claims when it suits their argument here.

Population DENSITY is important in epidemiology more than Population SIZE. We do have some very crowded areas (1 in 5 Americans is 'quarantined' by the decisions in CA and NY). During the Polio Plagues families moved to the midwest to avoid contact.

Whether this is linear, exponential, or otherwise (quadratic, cubic) will be yet to be determined in the US, and in many different areas of the US it will be different rates. There are many different shapes to growth models (J, r, K-limited).

It IS spreading, and I'm hoping to be smarter in the next few weeks than I have been in the last 5 days (7 grocery trips for my family and others) but I also can't quite imagine the media's worst case scenarios are actually coming.

If I can find a channel that can go 20 minutes without criticizing (or defending) Trump, Obama, the Senate, etc...... and talk about the disease and the doctors.... I'll start watching that.

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by mjones6

We have roughly 5x the population of Spain.

We also have roughly 30x the land area.

Some folks are running some VERY simple claims when it suits their argument here.

Population DENSITY is important in epidemiology more than Population SIZE. We do have some very crowded areas (1 in 5 Americans is 'quarantined' by the decisions in CA and NY). During the Polio Plagues families moved to the midwest to avoid contact.

Whether this is linear, exponential, or otherwise (quadratic, cubic) will be yet to be determined in the US, and in many different areas of the US it will be different rates. There are many different shapes to growth models (J, r, K-limited).

It IS spreading, and I'm hoping to be smarter in the next few weeks than I have been in the last 5 days (7 grocery trips for my family and others) but I also can't quite imagine the media's worst case scenarios are actually coming.

If I can find a channel that can go 20 minutes without criticizing (or defending) Trump, Obama, the Senate, etc...... and talk about the disease and the doctors.... I'll start watching that.

Spain has 4x the deaths as the US with same cases, currently. The mortality rate doesn't care how dense of a place you are in.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by charnick

So here's my answer to that: the media a few days ago - to my recollection - a lot has happened since said not to look at the cases for the reasoning that the number is faulty because of the lack of testing. That is to say if ~10,000 cases have been reported, it's because they were tested and the numbers added to the count. But how many thousands and thousands of people have it but have yet to be tested? The reported number will seem low and inconsequential, but it has been shown that the R0 of COVID-19 is 2.2-2.5. Meaning for every one person that has it, they infect between 2.2-2.5 more people. So as the curve of reported cases starts to increase, we can somewhat extrapolate the number of people infected. Every day you see the official count goes up, the probability of unreported case increases by a factor of nearly 3. Do that math, and then the "flatten the curve" comes into focus. Once we run out of ICU beds... the death toll will skyrocket unfortunately because those worst cases won't be able to get the medical attention they need. Dr. Porter discusses that outcome in her video.



I don't care about agendas, I care about numbers and I care about human life. Doctors, scientists and medical professionals also don't have agendas (for the most part - and if you think Dr. Porter has one, I don't know what to tell you). Italy has had an awful increase in deaths in the last day alone as their medical infrastructure begins to collapse under the weight of the sick. It is completely naive to think that this couldn't happen here in short order. The anecdotal evidence that that critical mass in local hospitals has already started is overwhelming.

So you have contradicted yourself a bit in all that.

In terms of beds, ventilators. Serious and Critical cases have leveled over the past few days. Something that has not happen in any country so far. There was a report about a NYC hospital being out of Ventilators.....they had.....11...total.

In terms of the 'I just care about human life arguement'---this has been covered 100 times in this thread. Estimated, as the country closes, will be about 40 million people out of work with out a paycheck. For approximately 10 million that will be life altering. 300 Lives currently over 10 million going into financial ruin.

Ill put your thought process into numbers for you

300>10,000,000

You might not care about human life as much as you claim.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by pejc300

So, like 550 people dead? Is that a big deal? Is that “going To get ugly?” In your eyes? Serious question.

Originally Posted by trixstar

I'm more worried about the hospitals being overrun tbh. People don't have to die at some god awful rate for this to be ugly. Take a look at the situation in NYC right now. Hospitals are already at the point they cannot afford to even stay open due to having to cancel or postpone every surgery that's not life threatening. Doctors have run out of PPE, they're out of beds, out of ventilators etc etc

I mean that's the entire point of trying to bend the curve, or do people think they're just making cute graphs?

Thats Pejc, you hit exactly where I was going with that.

Trix--you realize serious cases and deaths are stabilized again over the last 4 days (Im apologize I feel like a record going round and round with that). I can't believe how many of you hard left guys are ignoring that. Those 'cute graphs' were projecting us at 800 deaths today....just FYI. Were not even at half of that total!

When we were running 500 test a day a week ago, and were running 500,000 a day today. Cases are going to skyrocket.

97% negative test rate across the us. Then the 3% positive--98% of those show low to mild symptoms.

[tier1dc]

how to f the world, by China.

1. Create virus in biological warfare lab
2. Have virus escape from lab
3. Infect population
4. Suppress and kill
5. Let virus spread and infect world
6. Sit back and begin the Party spin



this is the kind of Party spew that's getting broadcast on mainland now.

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by mjones6

We have roughly 5x the population of Spain.

We also have roughly 30x the land area.

Some folks are running some VERY simple claims when it suits their argument here.

Population DENSITY is important in epidemiology more than Population SIZE. We do have some very crowded areas (1 in 5 Americans is 'quarantined' by the decisions in CA and NY). During the Polio Plagues families moved to the midwest to avoid contact.

Whether this is linear, exponential, or otherwise (quadratic, cubic) will be yet to be determined in the US, and in many different areas of the US it will be different rates. There are many different shapes to growth models (J, r, K-limited).

It IS spreading, and I'm hoping to be smarter in the next few weeks than I have been in the last 5 days (7 grocery trips for my family and others) but I also can't quite imagine the media's worst case scenarios are actually coming.

If I can find a channel that can go 20 minutes without criticizing (or defending) Trump, Obama, the Senate, etc...... and talk about the disease and the doctors.... I'll start watching that.

The reality is that we're probably all looking at this the wrong way.

We probably should be looking at the US as Europe and then breaking it down by States to Countries as the populations and density ratios are probably much closer.

So the US is Europe, New York is Italy, California is France, Illinois (due to Chicago) could be Spain, etc. (no research in comparing the states to the countries, they were purely for example purposes).