Corona Virus

[charnick]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

4 Days ago, all media outlets were reporting to not worry about cases.

Now you are buying that we should worry about cases?

So here's my answer to that: the media a few days ago - to my recollection - a lot has happened since said not to look at the cases for the reasoning that the number is faulty because of the lack of testing. That is to say if ~10,000 cases have been reported, it's because they were tested and the numbers added to the count. But how many thousands and thousands of people have it but have yet to be tested? The reported number will seem low and inconsequential, but it has been shown that the R0 of COVID-19 is 2.2-2.5. Meaning for every one person that has it, they infect between 2.2-2.5 more people. So as the curve of reported cases starts to increase, we can somewhat extrapolate the number of people infected. Every day you see the official count goes up, the probability of unreported case increases by a factor of nearly 3. Do that math, and then the "flatten the curve" comes into focus. Once we run out of ICU beds... the death toll will skyrocket unfortunately because those worst cases won't be able to get the medical attention they need. Dr. Porter discusses that outcome in her video.

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Your own source, I have been following closely. US has had 4 straight days around 40-50 deaths. That doesn't match any other trend of any country. Case numbers are up, because of more widely available test. Fact is serious cases have DRAMATICALLY dipped per your source from 9% to 5% today......probably stops at around 1%.

Which one is? Should we not worry about cases like the media said Monday. Or should we now be worried about cases because the mortality rate and serious case rate are falling through the floor, and that no longer fits their agenda?

Let me know!

I don't care about agendas, I care about numbers and I care about human life. Doctors, scientists and medical professionals also don't have agendas (for the most part - and if you think Dr. Porter has one, I don't know what to tell you). Italy has had an awful increase in deaths in the last day alone as their medical infrastructure begins to collapse under the weight of the sick. It is completely naive to think that this couldn't happen here in short order. The anecdotal evidence that that critical mass in local hospitals has already started is overwhelming.

[bustsomewax]

A week ago Italy was already in hell. We are not.

Let's hope what we are doing today pays off for the next two weeks. I personally think our country got serious about this 10 days ago, maybe just in time.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

A week ago Italy was already in hell. We are not.

Let's hope what we are doing today pays off for the next two weeks. I personally think our country got serious about this 10 days ago, maybe just in time.

Italy, as it turns out, is attributing everyone that dies with the virus, as dying from the virus. 100% cause of death if you have the virus is being listed as "coronavirus". A lot of chatter today circulating that even when the cases have just set in, or are mild, Italy is just swooping 100% of them. No other country is reporting COD this way.

This is why Italy's death #'s are so high.

[seabass97166]

The media is freaking people out to the point of no return. China population roughly 1.4 Billion and has 80k cases. Wouldn’t they have 300 million cases on the way to 700 million?

Numbers are getting way blown out of proportion causing so much damn panic.

Every year this many or more people die from the flu.

Be responsible and do the social distancing but stop creating panic.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Let's hope what we are doing today pays off for the next two weeks. I personally think our country got serious about this 10 days ago, maybe just in time.

Today's #'s were better than yesterday's. Less reported cases, less deaths. We've been stuck at ~50 per day for three days now. Could be a weekend thing ... IDK but even NY was way below their reported #'s from Friday.

Have to see what Monday brings.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

The media is freaking people out to the point of no return. China population roughly 1.4 Billion and has 80k cases. Wouldn’t they have 300 million cases on the way to 700 million?

Numbers are getting way blown out of proportion causing so much damn panic.

Every year this many or more people die from the flu.

Be responsible and do the social distancing but stop creating panic.

[charnick]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

Every year this many or more people die from the flu.

This *CLAP* is *CLAP* NOT *CLAP* the *CLAP* flu! *CLAP*

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

The r0 number of COVID-19 is nearly DOUBLE the flu!

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Italy, as it turns out, is attributing everyone that dies with the virus, as dying from the virus. 100% cause of death if you have the virus is being listed as "coronavirus". A lot of chatter today circulating that even when the cases have just set in, or are mild, Italy is just swooping 100% of them. No other country is reporting COD this way.

This is why Italy's death #'s are so high.

I don't follow.

I mean realistically someone with the virus, dies, what are the chances it was unrelated?

[preakness]

My prediction
April 1st
USA china virus deaths - 1069

Looting cities - a bunch

I can only watch so much Chicago PD, SVU, and imprsctical jokers in a day

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by trixstar

It's gonna be an ugly week for cases and deaths this week in the US

I don't think so. But it doesn't matter anymore, the narrative is set.

A good week (meaning numbers that suggest we're gonna be just fine) and "Social Distancing Works ... keep at it America!"

A bad week (meaning there is fear that NY city is gonna be losing 1,000 people a day) and "America, we need to shut the country down for three months and this is going to be the greatest test of blah blah blah"

We're screwed either way. As I said, the narrative is set. Our only out at this point is if hydroxychloroquine w/ the z-pack combo really are effective on the majority. Otherwise, there's no going back on this idea until at least the Summer.

[kerg]

Greenland has 2 cases. That was always difficult to get into when playing Plague Inc.

[seabass97166]

Originally Posted by preakness

My prediction
April 1st
USA china virus deaths - 1069

Looting cities - a bunch

I can only watch so much Chicago PD, SVU, and imprsctical jokers in a day

Ozark season 3 comes out Friday. That will buy you 2 more days.

[charnick]

Originally Posted by preakness

USA china virus deaths - 1069

Looting cities - a bunch

I can only watch so much Chicago PD, SVU, and imprsctical jokers in a day

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

I don't follow.

I mean realistically someone with the virus, dies, what are the chances it was unrelated?

The majority of Italian deaths are from people who are very old, and already very sick. So if they pick up the virus, more often than not, it's actually the cancer that kills them, not the virus.

In most countries, the cause of death for someone with say, lung cancer who picks up this virus and dies a day later would be "lung cancer". (As an example). But in Italy, no matter what your health or existing conditions, cause of death is listed as COVID-19, if you've tested positive. All other countries (I can't say this for certain, but I know US, China, SK, Germany, Canada, Mexico etc.) don't do it this way.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by preakness

My prediction
April 1st
USA china virus deaths - 1069

Looting cities - a bunch

I can only watch so much Chicago PD, SVU, and imprsctical jokers in a day

If the number is only 1,100 by April 1st, I'm gonna be so angry! (I LOL at that).

We should be in (at least) the triple digits per day by Tuesday. And we should be at (at least) 200 per day by Friday. If neither of those things happen, then the spread of this virus isn't all that great like I said, YAY SOCIAL DISTANCING. Enjoy you 2020 at home fools.

(And for those that say, deaths don't matter, I hear you but deaths also suggests a specific rise in overall case counts, and if people aren't dying, it means people aren't contracting the virus, so hospitals are OK)

[deansayso]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

The media is freaking people out to the point of no return. China population roughly 1.4 Billion and has 80k cases. Wouldn’t they have 300 million cases on the way to 700 million?

Numbers are getting way blown out of proportion causing so much damn panic.

Every year this many or more people die from the flu.

Be responsible and do the social distancing but stop creating panic.

Because they're covering up the numbers...Wuhan has been wiped out and the people there replaced with crisis actors. I read it on tweeter.

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by kerg

Greenland has 2 cases. That was always difficult to get into when playing Plague Inc.

I think about this game a lot more now during this.

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by charnick

Critical thinking skills, a math and science background, and extrapolating the numbers from other countries. The evidence is all around you, but because our (the US) logarithmic curve has yet to really shoot up, you don't notice it as much.

Over the next 2-4 weeks it absolutely will. You guys can doubt all you want - and you can quote the *current* numbers all you want (which are never really "current" anyway with delays in reporting), but you're completely ignoring that the current numbers can be extrapolated forward to some extent, and by that, I mean, maybe by the end of next week, you'll understand more what's actually at play here.

Here's an anecdote that I feel is apropos, even though it discusses exponential rather than logarithmic growth:

http://jonathanbecher.com/2016/01/31...tial-thinking/

"Imagine a large pond that is completely empty except for 1 lily pad. The lily pad will grow exponentially and cover the entire pond in 3 years. In other words, after 1 month there will 2 lily pads, after 2 months there will be 4, etc. The pond is covered in 36 months.

If I asked you when the pond would be half filled with lily pads, the temptation would be to say 18 months – half of the 36 months. In fact, the correct answer is 35 months. Right before the pond is filled, it’s half filled; because it doubles the next month.

While the correct answer is relatively straightforward to understand, the brain doesn’t work well exponentially. We think linearly. For example, here is an image of the pond 1/64 full – hardly full at all. When does this happen?"

The pond is 1/64 full in month 30, only 6 months before it is completely full.

This is the problem with anything subject to exponential growth. It’s deceiving. 30 months into a 36 month phenomena is a long time (2.5 years!) but there are hardly any results. Because the pond is barely full, many people won’t believe the trend is real. Even those closest to the phenomena might not understand how big it is going to be."

So, why hasn't China?

[yanksfan1]

All those spring breakers are now heading back to their homes, some undoubtedly bringing COVID-19 with them

[zonacats8]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

A week ago Italy was already in hell. We are not.

Let's hope what we are doing today pays off for the next two weeks. I personally think our country got serious about this 10 days ago, maybe just in time.

I don't think the country as a whole got serious about this until early this week, I think many did get serious about a week ago, but when there was still packed restaurants and bars last weekend. That essentially offsets any of the good that others were doing as there was likely lots of spread during that time and then those people have all of this week to spread it further before showing any symptoms themselves..

2-3 weeks from now will be very interesting to see what the numbers are doing, as there is the incubation period and then most places won't test people upon the outset of symptoms unless they're really bad right away. So all the idiots packing bars last weekend are likely going to start to see symptoms this weekend and into the middle part of next week, and then likely would be tested towards the middle of the week and into next weekend.

This also isn't something that kills people right away, it takes anywhere from a week to 8 weeks until people succumb to the virus and pass away, so the death numbers we're seeing now are likely people that caught this at a minimum 2 weeks ago, most of them likely caught it 3 or more weeks ago at this point.

[preakness]

China virus prevented me from seeing imprsctical jokers movie

[coltsnsox07]

Originally Posted by yanksfan1

All those spring breakers are now heading back to their homes, some undoubtedly bringing COVID-19 with them

Amongst other diseases....hiyoooo!
I'm enjoying all the car companies making the new commercials with the somber music in them saying in these trying times they're there for us if we want to buy a brand new car, with delayed payments available(for very well qualified buyers).

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by zonacats8

This also isn't something that kills people right away, it takes anywhere from a week to 8 weeks until people succumb to the virus and pass away, so the death numbers we're seeing now are likely people that caught this at a minimum 2 weeks ago, most of them likely caught it 3 or more weeks ago at this point.

Where do you come up with this stuff?

Care to share ANY REFERENCE you can find that says this virus can take up to 8 weeks to kill you?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

So, why hasn't China?

They locked down their city, forcibly quarantined those outside, welded doors shut in apartment buildings. They’re under an authoritarian regime so have actual consequences for those that fall out of line.

In the US we don’t really do that.

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by zonacats8

I don't think the country as a whole got serious about this until early this week, I think many did get serious about a week ago, but when there was still packed restaurants and bars last weekend. That essentially offsets any of the good that others were doing as there was likely lots of spread during that time and then those people have all of this week to spread it further before showing any symptoms themselves..

2-3 weeks from now will be very interesting to see what the numbers are doing, as there is the incubation period and then most places won't test people upon the outset of symptoms unless they're really bad right away. So all the idiots packing bars last weekend are likely going to start to see symptoms this weekend and into the middle part of next week, and then likely would be tested towards the middle of the week and into next weekend.

This also isn't something that kills people right away, it takes anywhere from a week to 8 weeks until people succumb to the virus and pass away, so the death numbers we're seeing now are likely people that caught this at a minimum 2 weeks ago, most of them likely caught it 3 or more weeks ago at this point.

Why does Spain have 4x the deaths as us with the same amount of cases?